CH 11 PPTs

11
CHAPTER
Credit Analysis

Company Liquidity refers to the ability to meet short-
term obligations

Liquidity is the ability to convert
assets into cash or to
obtain cash

Short term is the longer of one-year
or the company operating cycle

Liquidity and Working Capital
Basics

Liquidity is a matter of degree

Lack of liquidity can limit
Advantages of favorable discounts
Profitable opportunities
Management actions
Coverage of current obligations

Basics

Severe illiquidity often precedes

Lower profitability
Restricted opportunities
Loss of owner control
Loss of capital investment
Insolvency and bankruptcy

Basics

Current assets are cash and other assets reasonably expected to be
(1) realized in cash, or (2) sold or consumed, during the longer of one-
year or the companys operating cycle

Current assets include:

Cash -- ultimate liquid asset
Cash equivalents -- temporary investments of excess cash
Marketable securities -- debt or equity securities held as s-t investments
Accounts receivable -- mounts due from credit sales
Inventories -- items held for sale in the normal course of business
Prepaid expenses -- advance payments for services and supplies

Current Assets

Classification as current asset
depends on:

1. Manaments intent
2. Industry practice

Analysis must assess this classification

1. Is classification as current asset appropriate?
2. If not, then adjust accounts and amounts among current
and noncurrent

Current Assets
Balance
Sheet
Classification as current liability depends on:
1. Manaments intent
2. Industry practice

Analysis must assess this classification
1. Is classification as current liability appropriate?
2. If not, then adjust accounts and amounts among current and noncurrent
3. Are current liabilities reported?
4. If not, then adjust accounts for these amountspotential examples:
Contingent liabilities associated with loan guarantees
Future minimum rental payments under noncancelable operating leases
Progress payments under contracts
Current deferred tax liabilities (and assets)

Current Liabilities

Working capital is

defined as the excess of current assets over current liabilities
Widely used measure of short-term liquidity
Deficient when current liabilities exceed current assets
In surplus when current assets exceed current liabilities
A margin of safety for creditors
A liquid reserve to meet contingencies and uncertainties
A constraint for technical default in many debt agreements

Working Capital

Working capital more relevant when related to other key
variables such as
Sales
Total assets

Working capital is of limited value as an absolute
amount

Working Capital

Current Ratio Reflects on:
Current liability coverage -- assurance in covering current
liabilities
Buffer against losses -- margin of safety for shrinkage in
noncash current assets
Reserve of liquid funds --margin of safety
against uncertainties and shocks to cash flows

Current Ratio
s liabilitie Current
assets Current
= ratio Current
Current Ratio Limitations:

If liquidity is the ability to meet cash outflows with adequate
cash inflows, then does the current ratio:
Measure and predict the pattern of future cash inflows and
outflows?
Measure the adequacy of future cash inflows to outflows?
Answer is generally no to both these questions

Current ratio
Is a static measure
Does not have a causal relation to future
cash inflows
Current Ratio

Current Ratio Limitations in Numerator
Adjustments often needed to counter various limitations such as

Failure to reflect open lines of credit
Adjust securities valuation since the balance sheet date
Reflect revolving nature of accounts receivable
Recognize profit margin in inventory
Adjust inventory values to market
Remove deferred charges of dubious liquidity from
prepaid expenses

Current Ratio

Three important qualifications
1. Liquidity depends to a large extent on prospective cash
flows
2. No direct relation between working capital account
balances and patterns of future cash flows
3. Managerial policies are directed primarily at efficient and
profitable asset utilization and secondly at liquidity
4. Cash flow forecasts and pro forma financial statements
are preferred over the current ratio for liquidity and
solvency analysis
5. Current ratio is a static measure of the ability of current
assets to satisfy current liabilities
Current Ratio

Two important elements are integral to use of the current
ratio

1. Quality of both current assets and current liabilities
2. Turnover rate of both current assets and current
liabilities

Current Ratio

Comparative Analysis

Two useful tools in analyzing
the trend in the current ratio

Trend analysis -- components of working capital and the
current ratio are converted to indexes and examined over
time
Common-size analysis -- composition of current assets is
examined over time

Current Ratio - Applications

Ratio Management (window dressing)

Examples are:
Press the collection of
receivables at year-end
Call in advances to officers for
temporary repayment
Reduce inventory below normal
levels
Delay normal purchases

Proceeds from these activities are then
used to pay off current liabilities

Rule of Thumb Analysis (2:1)

> 2:1 superior coverage of current liabilities (but not
too high, suggesting inefficient use of resources
and reduced returns)

< 2:1 deficient coverage of current liabilities


Net Trade Cycle Analysis

Working capital requirements are affected by its desired
inventory investment and the relation between credit
terms from suppliers and those extended to customers

Net Trade CycleIllustration
Selected financial information from Technology Resources, Inc., for the end of Year 1 is
reproduced below:
Sales for Year 1 $360,000
Receivables 40,000
Inventories* 50,000
Accounts payable 20,000
Cost of goods sold
(including depreciation of $30,000) 320,000
*Beginning inventory is $100,000.
We assume these relate to purchases included in cost of goods sold.

We estimate Technology Resources purchases per day as:
Purchases per day = $240,000 360 = $666.67
The net trade cycle for Technology Resources is computed as (in days):

day s 66.24 = (day s) cy cle trade Net
day s 30.00 =
$666.67
$20,000
= pay able Accounts : Less
day s 96.24
day s 56.24 =
360 $320,000
$50,000
= s Inv entorie
day s 40.00 =
360 $360,000
$40,000
= receiv able Accounts

Sales Trend Analysis

Trend analysis review of sales trend across time


Cash to Current Assets Ratio

Larger the ratio, the more liquid are current assets

Cash-Based Ratio of Liquidity
assets Current
securities Marketable + s equivalent Cash + Cash

Cash to Current Liabilities Ratio

Larger the ratio, the more cash available to pay current
obligations

securities Marketable + s equivalent Cash + Cash
Cash-Based Ratio of Liquidity

Accounts Receivable Turnover

Operating Activity Analysis of Liquidity
Accounts Receivable Liquidity
receivable accounts Average
credit on sales Net
Receivables Turnover for Selected Industries
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Food stores
Eating and drinking
Motion pictures
Printing and publishing
Electrical equipment
Educational services
General merchandise
Receivables turnover
Source: Dun & Bradstreet

Accounts Receivable Collection Period

turnover receivable Accounts
360
= period Collection

Days Sales in Receivables (Alternative to Collection Period)

360
Sales
Receivable Account

Temporal Trend Analysis

Trend in:

1. Collection period over time

2.

receivable accounts Gross
accounts doubtful for Provision

Inventory Turnover

Measures the average rate of speed inventories move
through and out of a company

Inventory Turnover
inventory Average
sold goods of Cost
Days to Sell Inventory

Useful in assessing purchasing and production policiesshows the number of
days a company takes in selling average inventory for that year

Alternative computation-- Days Sales in Inventory

where the cost of average days sales is:

Shows the number of days required to sell ending inventory
Inventory Turnover
turnover Inventory
360
sales s day' average of Cost
inventory Ending
360
sold goods of Cost
Selected financial information from Macon Resources, Inc., for the end of
Year 8 is reproduced below:
Sales $1,800,000
Cost of goods sold 1,200,000
Beginning inventory 200,000
Ending inventory 400,000
Inventory turnover ratios using average inventory are computed as:

Inventory turnover ratios based on ending inventory equal:

Inventory Turnover - Illustration
days Days
Inventory
90
4
2 ) 000 , 400 $ 000 , 200 ($
=
=
+
4
360
= rati o i nventory sel l to
$1,200,000
= rati o turnover
days
$3,333
$400,000
= i nventory i n sal es Days'
$1,200,000
= sal es s day' average of Cost
120
333 , 3 $
360
=
=

Conversion Period (Operating Cycle):

Days to Sell Inventory + Collection Period

Measure of the speed with which inventory is converted
to cash

Inventory Turnover

Quality of Current Liabilities

Must be judged on their degree of urgency in
payment

Must be aware of unrecorded liabilities having a claim
on current funds

Liquidity of Current Liabilities

Days Purchases in Accounts Payable

Measures the extent accounts payable represent current
and not overdue obligations

Inventory Turnover
360 Purchases
payable Accounts
= payable accounts in purchases Days
Additional Liquidity Measures

Asset Composition

Composition of current
assets is an indicator of
working capital liquidity

Use of common-size
percentage comparisons
facilitates this analysis
Balance
Sheet
Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio

receivable Accounts + securities Marketable + s equivalent Cash + Cash
Is a more stringent test of liquidity
vis--vis current ratio
Dun & Bradstreet's Quick Ratio for Selected
Industries
0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5
Food stores
Eating and drinking
Motion pictures
General merchandise
Ratio
Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio
(Cash + Account Receivables/Current Liabilities)
Cash Flow Measures

Cash Flow Ratio

A ratio of 0.40 or higher is common for
healthy companies
flow cash Operating
Financial Flexibility

Financial flexibility - ability of a company to take steps
to counter unexpected interruptions in the flow of funds

Focus of analysis:
Ability to borrow from various
sources
To raise equity capital
To sell and redeploy assets
To adjust the level and direction of
operations to meet changing
circumstances
Levels of prearranged financing and
open lines of credit

Managements Discussion and Analysis

MD&A requires a discussion of liquidity including
Known trends
Demands
Commitments
Uncertainties
Ability to generate cash
Internal and external sources of liquidity
Any material unused sources of liquid assets
What-If Analysis

What-if analysis -- technique to trace through the
effects of changes in conditions or policies on the
cash resources of a company

What-If Analysis - Illustration
Background DataConsolidated Technologies at December 31, Year 1:

Cash $ 70,000
Accounts receivable 150,000
Inventory 65,000
Accounts payable 130,000
Notes payable 35,000
Accrued taxes 18,000
Fixed assets 200,000
Accumulated depreciation 43,000
Capital stock 200,000

The following additional information is reported for Year 1:

Sales $750,000
Cost of sales 520,000
Purchases 350,000
Depreciation 25,000
Net income 20,000

- Anticipates 10 percent growth in sales for Year 2
- All revenue and expense items are expected to increase by 10 percent, except for
depreciation, which remains the same
- All expenses are paid in cash as they are incurred
- Year 2 ending inventory is projected at $150,000
- By the end of Year 2, predicts notes payable of $50,000 and a zero balance in accrued taxes
- Maintains a minimum cash balance of $50,000
What-If Analysis - Illustration
Case 1: Consolidated Technologies is considering a change in credit policy where ending accounts
receivable reflect 90 days of sales. What impact does this change have on the companys cash balance?
Will this change affect the companys need to borrow?
Our analysis of this what-if situation is as follows:

Cash, January 1, Year 2 $ 70,000
Cash collections:
Accounts receivable, January 1, Year 2 $ 150,000
Sales 825,000
Total potential cash collections $ 975,000
Less: Accounts receivable, December 31, Year 2 ( 206,250)(a) 768,750
Total cash available $ 838,750
Cash disbursements:
Accounts payable, January 1, Year 2 $ 130,000
Purchases 657,000(b)
Total potential cash disbursements $ 787,000
Accounts payable, December 31, Year 2 ( 244,000)(c) $ 543,000
Notes payable, January 1, Year 2 $ 35,000
Notes payable, December 31, Year 2 ( 50,000) (15,000)
Accrued taxes 18,000
Cash expenses(d) 203,500 749,500
Cash, December 31, Year 2 $ 89,250
Cash balance desired 50,000
Cash excess $ 39,250

Explanations:
(a)
(b)Year 2 cost of sales*: $520,000 1.1 = $ 572,000
Ending inventory (given) 150,000
Goods available for sale $ 722,000
Beginning inventory ( 65,000)
Purchases $ 657,000
* Excluding depreciation.
(c)
(d) Gross profit ($825,000 $572,000) $ 253,000
Less: Net income $ 24,500*
Depreciation 25,000 ( 49,500)
Other cash expenses $ 203,500
*110 percent of $20,000 (Year 1 N.I.) + 10 percent of $ 25,000 (Year 1 depreciation).

Solvency -- long-run financial viability and
its ability to cover long-term obligations

Capital structure -- financing sources
and their attributes

Earning power recurring ability to
generate cash from operations

Loan covenants protection against insolvency and
financial distress; they define default (and the legal
remedies available when it occurs) to allow the
opportunity to collect on a loan before severe distress
Basic of Solvency
Facts
Equity financing
Risk capital of a company
Uncertain and unspecified return
Lack of any repayment pattern
Contributes to a companys stability and solvency

Debt financing
Must be repaid with interest
Specified repayment pattern

When the proportion of debt financing is higher, the higher
are the resulting fixed charges and repayment commitments
Basic of Solvency
Capital Structure

From a shareholders perspective, debt financing is less
expensive than equity financing because:

1.Financial Leverage--Interest on most
debt is fixed, and provided interest is
less than the return earned from debt
financing, the excess return goes to
equity investors

2.Tax Deductibility of Interest--Interest is
a tax-deductible expense whereas
dividends are not

Basic of Solvency
Motivation for Debt

Leverage -- use of debt to increase net income

Leverage:
Magnifies both managerial success (profits) and failure
(losses)
Increases risks
Limits flexibility in pursuing opportunities
Decreases creditors protection against loss

Companies with leverage are said to be trading on the equity
omplying a company is using equity financing to obtain debt
financing in a desire to reap returns above the cost of debt.

Basic of Solvency
Financial Leverage

Trading on the EquityReturns for Different Earnings Levels ($ thousands)

Financing Sources Return on
Income before
Interest and 10 Percent Net Net Income + [Interest
Assets Debt Equity Taxes Debt Interest Taxes* Income (1 - Tax Rate)] Assets Equity

Year 1:
Risky, Inc. $1,000,000 $400,000 $600,000 $200,000 $40,000 $64,000 $96,000 $120,000 12.0% 16.0%
Safety, Inc. 1,000,000 1,000,000 200,000 80,000 120,000 120,000 12.0 12.0

Year 2:
Risky, Inc. 1,000,000 400,000 600,000 100,000 40,000 24,000 36,000 60,000 6.0 6.0
Safety, Inc. 1,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 40,000 60,000 60,000 6.0 6.0

Year 3:
Risky, Inc. 1,000,000 400,000 600,000 50,000 40,000 4,000 6,000 30,000 3.0 1.0
Safety, Inc. 1,000,000 1,000,000 50,000 20,000 30,000 30,000 3.0 3.0

* Tax rate is 40 percent.
Return on assets = Net income + Interest (1 0.40)/Assets.
Return on equity = Net income/Shareholders equity.

Basic of Solvency
Financial Leverage - Illustration

Consider two companies results for Year 2:

Year 2 Financials Risky, Inc. Safety, Inc.

Income before interest and taxes $ 100,000 $ 100,000
Interest (10% of $400,000) 40,000
Income before taxes $ 60,000 $ 100,000
Taxes (40%) 24,000 40,000
Net income $ 36,000 $ 60,000
Add back interest paid to bondholder 40,000
Total return to security holders
(debt and equity) $ 76,000 60,000

Basic of Solvency
Financial Leverage- Illustrating Tax Deductibility
of Interest

Financial Leverage Ratio

Greater the proportion of financing from equity vs. debt
lower the financial leverage ratio

Note: Financial leverage ratio is a component
of the disaggregated return on equity
see Chapter 8

Basic of Solvency
Financial Leverage
capital equity Common
assets Total
Potential accounts needing adjustments Chapter reference

Deferred Income Taxes Is it a liability, 3 & 6
equity, or some of both?
Operating Leases -- capitalize non- 3
cancelable operating leases?
Off-Balance-Sheet Financing 3
Pensions and Postretirement Benefits 3
Unconsolidated Subsidiaries 5
Contingent Liabilities 3 & 6
Minority Interests 5
Convertible Debt 3
Preferred Stock 3
Basic of Solvency
Adjustments for Capital Structure - Liabilities
Balance
Sheet

Potential accounts needing adjustments Chapter reference

InventoriesLIFO Reserve? 4
Marketable Securities 4
Intangible Assets 4 & 5

Basic of Solvency
Adjustments for Capital Structure - Assets
Balance
Sheet

Projection of Future Cash Inflows and Outflows

Reflects on risk for a levered companys capital structure
Prepare a Statement of Forecasts of Cash Inflows and
Outflows

Capital Structure and Solvency
Long-Term Projections
Chapter 10 described and illustrated long-term cash flow forecasts

Capital structure composition analysis

Performed by constructing a common -
size statement of liabilities and equity
Reveals relative magnitude of financing sources
Allows direct comparisons across different
companies
Two Variations(1) Use ratios, and (2) Exclude current
liabilities
Common-Size Statements

Total Debt to Total Capital (also called total debt ratio)

Capital Structure Measures
capital Total
debt Total
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Food stores
Eating and drinking
Motion pictures
General merchandise
Ratio

Total Debt to Equity Capital

Reciprocal measure of this ratioEquity Capital to
Total Debt

equity s hareholder S
debt Total
debt Total

Long -Term Debt to Equity Capital (also called
Debt to Equity)

debt term - Long
Total Debt to Equity
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Food stores
Eating and drinking
Motion pictures
General merchandise
Ratio Source: Dun & Bradstreet

Short-Term Debt to Total Debt

Equity Capital at Market Value


Common-size and ratio analyses of capital structure mainly reflect
capital structure risk

Capital structure measures serve as screening devices

Extended analysis focuses financial condition, results of
operations, and future prospects

Prior to long-term solvency analysis, we perform liquidity analysis
to be satisfied about near-term survival

Additional analyses include examination of
Debt maturities (amount and timing)
Interest costs
Risk-bearing factors (earnings persistence, industry
performance, and asset composition)

Interpretation of Capital Structure Measures

Asset Composition Analysis

Tool in assessing the risk exposure of a capital structure
Typically evaluated using common-size statements

Asset-Based Measures of Solvency

Asset Coverage
Assets provide protection to creditors--earning power
and liquidation value
Base for additional financing
Useful ratios include:
Fixed assets to equity capital
Net tangible assets to long-term debt
Total liabilities to net tangible assets
Asset-Based Measures of Solvency
Earning Coverage
Earnings to Fixed Charges

Earnings to fixed charges ratio

charges Fixed
charges fixed for available Earnings
Earnings to Fixed Charges
(a) Pre-tax income before discontinued operations, extraordinary items, and cumulative effects of accounting changes.
(b) Interest incurred less interest capitalized.
(c) Usually included in interest expense.
(d) Financing leases are capitalized so the interest implicit in these is already included in interest expense. However, the interest portion of long-term
operating leases is included on the assumption many long-term operating leases narrowly miss the capital lease criteria, but have many
characteristics of a financing transaction.
(e) Excludes all items eliminated in consolidation. The dividend amount is increased to pre-tax earnings required to pay for it. Computed as [Preferred
stock dividend requirements]/[1 Income tax rate]. The income tax rate is computed as [Actual income tax provision]/[Income before income taxes,
extraordinary items, and cumulative effect of accounting changes].
(f) Applies to nonutility companies. This amount is not often disclosed.
(g) Minority interest in income of majority-owned subsidiaries having fixed charges can be included in income.
(h) Included whether expensed or capitalized.
For ease of presentation, two items (provisions) are left out of the ratio above:
1. Losses of majority-owned subsidiaries should be considered in full when computing earnings.
2. Losses on investments in less than 50-percent-owned subsidiaries accounted for by the equity method should not be included in earnings
unless the company guarantees subsidiaries debts.
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
es subsidiari owned - maj ority of ts requiremen dividend stock preferred

adj usted - Tax ) ( expenses rental operating of portion Interest ) ( premium
or discount and expense debt of ion Amortizat ) ( incurred interest Total ) (
affiliates or es subsidiari owned - percent - 50 than less of income ted Undistribu ) ( period the in amortized
interest d capitalize previously of Amount ) ( es subsidiari owned - maj ority of
ts requiremen dividend stock preferred adj usted - Tax ) ( expenses rental operating of
portion Interest ) ( premium or discount and expense debt of ion Amortizat ) (
expense Interest ) ( operations continuing from income tax - Pre ) (
e plus d plus
c plus h
g minus
f plus
e plus
d plus c
plus b plus a
Earning Coverage
Earnings to Fixed Charges - Illustration

COMPUTECH CORPORATION
Income Statement
Net sales $ 13,400,000
Income of less than 50%-owned affiliates (all[nb]undistributed) 600,000
Total revenue $ 14,000,000
Cost of goods sold $ 7,400,000
Selling, general, and administrative expenses 1,900,000
Depreciation (excluded from above costs)3 800,000
Interest expense1net 700,000
Rental expense2 800,000
Share of minority interests in consolidated income4 200,000 11,800,000
Income before taxes $ 2,200,000
Income taxes:
Current $ 800,000
Deferred 300,000 (1,100,000)
Income before extraordinary item $ 1,100,000
Extraordinary gain (net of $67,000 tax) 200,000
Net income $ 1,300,000
Dividends:
On common stock $ 200,000
On preferred stock 400,000 600,000
Earnings retained for the year $ 700,000
Selected notes to the financial statements:
1 Interest expense is composed of the following:
Interest incurred (except items below) $ 740,000
Amortization of bond discount 60,000
Interest portion of capitalized leases 100,000
Interest capitalized (200,000)
Interest expense $ 700,000
2 Interest implicit in noncapitalized leases amounts to $300,000.
3 Depreciation includes amortization of previously capitalized interest of $80,000.
4 These subsidiaries have fixed charges.
Additional information (during the income statement period):
Increase in accounts receivable $ 310,000
Increase in inventories 180,000
Increase in accounts payable 140,000
Decrease in accrued taxes 20,000
Earnings to fixed charges ratio:
$2, ( ) $700 200
2 40
a b c d f g
h c d
+ + + +
+ +
=
( ) $300( ) $80( ) $600( ) $200
$840( ) $60( ) $300( )
.
*
and
*Note: The SEC permits including in income the minority interest in the income of majority-owned subsidiaries having fixed
charges. This amount is added to reverse a similar deduction from income.
Earning Coverage
Tiimes Interest Earned

Times interest earned ratio

expense Interest
expense Interest + expense Tax + Income
Earning Coverage
Cash Flow to Fixed Charges

Cash Flow to Fixed Charges Ratio

charges ixed F
(g) (b) s Adjustment + flow cash operating tax - Pre
Earning Coverage
Cash Flow to Fixed Charges - Illustration
Fixed charges needing to be added back to CampuTechs pre-tax cash from
operations:
Pre-tax cash from operations $ 2,290,000
Interest expensed(less bond discount added back above) 640,000
Interest portion of operating rental expense 300,000
Amount of previously capitalized interest amortized during period* -
Total numerator $ 3,230,000
*Assume included in depreciation (already added back).

Fixed charges for the ratios denominator are:

Interest incurred $ 900,000
Interest portion of operating rentals 300,000
Fixed charges $ 1,200,000

CompuTechs cash flow to fixed charges ratio is:

69 2
000 200 1
000 230 3
.
, , $
, , $
=
Earning Coverage
Earnings Coverage of Preferred Dividends

Earnings coverage of preferred dividends
ratio:

|
.
|
\
|
rate Tax 1
dividends Preferred
+ charges ixed F
(g) (b) Adjusted + income tax - Pre
Earning Coverage
Interpreting Earnings Coverage

Earnings-coverage measures provide insight into
the ability of a company to meet its fixed charges
High correlation between earnings-coverage
measures and default rate on debt
Earnings variability and persistence is
important
Use earnings before discontinued
operations, extraordinary items, and
cumulative effects of accounting
changes for single year analysis
but, include them in computing the
average coverage ratio over several years
Earning Coverage
Capital Structure Risk and Return

- A company can increase risks (and potential
returns) of equity holders by increasing leverage
- Substitution of debt for equity yields a riskier
capital structure
- Relation between risk and return
in a capital structure exists
- Only personal analysis can
reflect ones unique risk and
return expectations

Return
$
Risk
?

Criteria determining a specific rating involve both
quantitative and qualitative factors

Asset protection
Financial resources
Earning power
Management
Debt provisions
Other: Company size, market share, industry position,
cyclical influences, and economic conditions

Rating Debt ObligationsAppendix 11A
Rating Criteria
Ratings and Yields
Source: Standard & Poors, 2002
10-Year Treasury and Corporate Bond Yields - 2002
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Treasury
AAA
AA
A
Percent

Bond Quality Ratings
Rating Grades Standard & Poors Moodys

Highest grade AAA Aaa
High grade AA Aa
Upper medium A A
Lower medium BBB Baa
Marginally speculative BB Ba
Highly speculative B B, Caa
Default D Ca, C
Rating Criteria

X1 = Working capital/Total assets
X2 = Retained earnings/Total assets
X3 = Earnings before interest and taxes/Total assets
X4 = Shareholders equity/Total liabilities
X5 = Sales/Total assets

Z<1.20 implies a high probability of bankruptcy
Z>2.90 implies a low probability of bankruptcy
1.20<Z<2.90 implies an ambiguous area
Predicting Financial DistressAppendix 11B
Altman Z-Score
5 4 3 2 1
998 . 0 420 . 0 107 . 3 847 . 0 717 . 0 X X X X X Z + + + + =

LTD = Long-term debt consisting of all long-term liabilities inclusive of
(1) noncurrent deferred taxes likely to reverse, and (2) other
noncurrent liabilities.
NFL = Estimated present value of noncapitalized financial leases.
SE = Shareholders equity, including minority interests.
NDT = Noncurrent deferred taxes assessed as unlikely to reverse in the
foreseeable future.
LR = LIFO reserve (excess of disclosed FIFO value of
ending inventory over reported LIFO amount).
MSA = Excess of market value of marketable securities
over cost (for analysis of financial statements
prior to 1994).
Analytical Adjustments to Long-Term Debt
to Equity RatioAppendix 11C
Ratio Adjustment
MSA LR NDT SE
NFL D LT
+ + +
+

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11

Current Ratio - Applications

Additional Liquidity Measures

es subsidiari owned - maj ority of ts requiremen dividend stock preferred

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