Chapter 10

Credit Analysis
10
CHAPTER
Liquidity and Working Capital
Basics
Liquidity refers to the companys ability to meet short-

term obligations
Liquidity is the ability to convert

assets into cash or to
obtain cash
Short term is the longer of one-year

or the company operating cycle
Basics
Liquidity is a matter of degree
Lack of liquidity can limit

Advantages of favorable discounts
Profitable opportunities
Management actions
Coverage of current obligations
Basics
Severe illiquidity often precedes
Lower profitability
Restricted opportunities
Loss of owner control
Loss of capital investment
Insolvency and bankruptcy
Current Assets
Current assets are cash and other assets reasonably expected to be

(1) realized in cash, or (2) sold or consumed, during the longer of one-
year or the companys operating cycle
Current assets include:

Cash -- ultimate liquid asset
Cash equivalents -- temporary investments of excess cash
Marketable securities -- debt or equity securities held as s-t investments
Accounts receivable -- mounts due from credit sales
Inventories -- items held for sale in the normal course of business
Prepaid expenses -- advance payments for services and supplies
Current Assets
Classification as current asset

depends on:
Balance
1. Manaments intent Sheet
2. Industry practice
Analysis must assess this classification
1. Is classification as current asset appropriate?

2. If not, then adjust accounts and amounts among current
and noncurrent
Current Liabilities
Classification as current liability depends on:

1. Manaments intent
2. Industry practice
Analysis must assess this classification

1. Is classification as current liability appropriate?
2. If not, then adjust accounts and amounts among current and noncurrent
3. Are current liabilities reported?
4. If not, then adjust accounts for these amountspotential examples:
Contingent liabilities associated with loan guarantees
Future minimum rental payments under noncancelable operating leases
Progress payments under contracts
Current deferred tax liabilities (and assets)
Working Capital
Working capital is
defined as the excess of current assets over current liabilities
Widely used measure of short-term liquidity
Deficient when current liabilities exceed current assets
In surplus when current assets exceed current liabilities
A margin of safety for creditors
A liquid reserve to meet contingencies and uncertainties
A constraint for technical default in many debt agreements
Working Capital
Working capital more relevant when related to other key

variables such as
Sales
Total assets
Working capital is of limited value as an absolute

amount
Current Ratio
Current assets
Current ratio=
Current liabilities
Current Ratio Reflects on:

Current liability coverage -- assurance in covering current
liabilities
Buffer against losses -- margin of safety for shrinkage in
noncash current assets
Reserve of liquid funds -- margin of safety
against uncertainties and shocks to cash flows
Current Ratio
Current Ratio Limitations:

If liquidity is the ability to meet cash outflows with adequate
cash inflows, then does the current ratio:
Measure and predict the pattern of future cash inflows and
outflows?
Measure the adequacy of future cash inflows to outflows?
Answer is generally no to both these questions
Current ratio
Is a static measure
Does not have a causal relation to future
cash inflows
Current Ratio
Current Ratio Limitations in Numerator

Adjustments often needed to counter various limitations such as
Failure to reflect open lines of credit

Adjust securities valuation since the balance sheet date
Reflect revolving nature of accounts receivable
Recognize profit margin in inventory
Adjust inventory values to market
Remove deferred charges of dubious liquidity from
prepaid expenses
Current Ratio
Three important qualifications

1. Liquidity depends to a large extent on prospective cash
flows
2. No direct relation between working capital account
balances and patterns of future cash flows
3. Managerial policies are directed primarily at efficient and
profitable asset utilization and secondly at liquidity
4. Cash flow forecasts and pro forma financial statements
are preferred over the current ratio for liquidity and
solvency analysis
5. Current ratio is a static measure of the ability of current
assets to satisfy current liabilities
Current Ratio
Two important elements are integral to use of the current

ratio
1. Quality of both current assets and current liabilities

2. Turnover rate of both current assets and current
liabilities
Current Ratio - Applications
Comparative Analysis
Two useful tools in analyzing

the trend in the current ratio
Trend analysis -- components of working capital and the

current ratio are converted to indexes and examined over
time
Common-size analysis -- composition of current assets is
examined over time
Ratio Management (window dressing)
Examples are:
Press the collection of
receivables at year-end
Call in advances to officers for
temporary repayment
Reduce inventory below normal
levels
Delay normal purchases
Proceeds from these activities are then

used to pay off current liabilities
Rule of Thumb Analysis (2:1)
> 2:1 superior coverage of current liabilities (but not

too high, suggesting inefficient use of resources
and reduced returns)
< 2:1 deficient coverage of current liabilities

Net Trade Cycle Analysis
Working capital requirements are affected by its desired

inventory investment and the relation between credit
terms from suppliers and those extended to customers
Net Trade CycleIllustration
Selected financial information from Technology Resources, Inc., for the end of Year 1 is
reproduced below:
Sales for Year 1 $360,000
Receivables 40,000
Inventories* 50,000
Accounts payable 20,000
Cost of goods sold
(including depreciation of $30,000) 320,000
*Beginning inventory is $100,000.
We assume these relate to purchases included in cost of goods sold.
We estimate Technology Resources purchases per day as:

Purchases per day = $240,000 360 = $666.67
The net trade cycle for Technology Resources is computed as (in days):
$40,000
Accountsreceivable = = 40.00 days
$360,000 360
$50,000
Inventorie s = = 56.24 days
$320,000 360
96.24 days
$20,000
Less : Accountspayable = = 30.00 days
$666.67
Net trade cycle(days) = 66.24 days

Sales Trend Analysis
Trend analysis review of sales trend across time

Cash-Based Ratio of Liquidity
Cash to Current Assets Ratio

Cash + Cash equivalent s + Marketable securities
Current assets
Larger the ratio, the more liquid are current assets

Cash-Based Ratio of Liquidity
Cash to Current Liabilities Ratio

Cash + Cash equivalent s + Marketable securities
Current liabilities
Larger the ratio, the more cash available to pay current

obligations
Operating Activity Analysis of Liquidity
Accounts Receivable Liquidity
Accounts Receivable Turnover
Net sales on credit

Average accounts receivable
Days Sales in Receivables
Sales
Days Sales in Recievable s Account Receivable
360
Average Collection Period (alternative view)
360
Average Collection Period =
Accounts Receivable Turnover
Temporal Trend Analysis
Trend in:
1. Collection period over time

Provision for doubtful accounts
2.
Gross accounts receivable
Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover
Cost of goods sold

Average inventory
Measures the average rate of speed inventories move

through and out of a company
Inventory Turnover
Days Sales in Inventory
Inventories (Cost of goods sold / 360)
Shows the number of days required to sell ending

inventory Days to Sell Inventory
Useful in assessing purchasing and production policiesshows the number of
days a company takes in selling average inventory for that year
Inventory Turnover - Illustration
Inventory Turnover
Conversion Period (Operating Cycle):
Days to Sell Inventory + Collection Period
Measure of the speed with which inventory is converted

to cash
Liquidity of Current Liabilities
Quality of Current Liabilities
Must be judged on their degree of urgency in

payment
Must be aware of unrecorded liabilities having a claim

on current funds
Inventory Turnover
Days Purchases in Accounts Payable
Accounts payable
Days purchases in accounts payable =
Purchases 360
Measures the extent accounts payable represent current

and not overdue obligations
Additional Liquidity Measures
Asset Composition
Composition of current
assets is an indicator of
working capital liquidity
Balance
Sheet
Use of common-size
percentage comparisons
facilitates this analysis
Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio
Cash + Cash equivalent s + Marketable securities + Accounts receivable

Current liabilitie s
Is a more stringent test of liquidity

vis--vis current ratio
Cash Flow Measures
Cash Flow Ratio
Operating cash flow

Current liabilities
A ratio of 0.40 or higher is common for

healthy companies
Financial Flexibility
Financial flexibility - ability of a company to take steps

to counter unexpected interruptions in the flow of funds
Focus of analysis:
Ability to borrow from various
sources
To raise equity capital
To sell and redeploy assets
To adjust the level and direction of
operations to meet changing
circumstances
Levels of prearranged financing and
open lines of credit
Managements Discussion and Analysis
MD&A requires a discussion of liquidity including

Known trends
Demands
Commitments
Uncertainties
Ability to generate cash
Internal and external sources of liquidity
Any material unused sources of liquid assets
What-If Analysis
What-if analysis -- technique to trace through the

effects of changes in conditions or policies on the
cash resources of a company
What-If Analysis - Illustration
Background DataConsolidated Technologies at December 31, Year 1:
Cash $ 70,000
Accounts receivable 150,000
Inventory 65,000
Accounts payable 130,000
Notes payable 35,000
Accrued taxes 18,000
Fixed assets 200,000
Accumulated depreciation 43,000
Capital stock 200,000
The following additional information is reported for Year 1:
Sales $750,000
Cost of sales 520,000
Purchases 350,000
Depreciation 25,000
Net income 20,000
Anticipates 10 percent growth in sales for Year 2

All revenue and expense items are expected to increase by 10 percent, except for depreciation,
which remains the same
All expenses are paid in cash as they are incurred
Year 2 ending inventory is projected at $150,000
By the end of Year 2, predicts notes payable of $50,000 and a zero balance in accrued taxes
Maintains a minimum cash balance of $50,000
What-If Analysis - Illustration
Case 1: Consolidated Technologies is considering a change in credit policy where ending accounts
receivable reflect 90 days of sales. What impact does this change have on the companys cash
balance? Will this change affect the companys need to borrow?
Our analysis of this what-if situation is as follows:
Cash, January 1, Year 2 $ 70,000
Cash collections:
Accounts receivable, January 1, Year 2 $ 150,000
Sales 825,000
Total potential cash collections $ 975,000
Less: Accounts receivable, December 31, Year 2 ( 206,250)(a) 768,750
Total cash available $ 838,750
Cash disbursements:
Accounts payable, January 1, Year 2 $ 130,000
Purchases 657,000(b)
Total potential cash disbursements $ 787,000
Accounts payable, December 31, Year 2 ( 244,000)(c) $ 543,000
Notes payable, January 1, Year 2 $ 35,000
Notes payable, December 31, Year 2 ( 50,000) (15,000)
Accrued taxes 18,000
Cash expenses(d) 203,500 749,500
Cash, December 31, Year 2 $ 89,250
Cash balance desired 50,000
Cash excess $ 39,250
Explanations:
(a)
(b)Year 2 cost of sales*: $520,000 1.1 = $ 572,000
Ending inventory (given) 150,000
Goods available for sale $ 722,000
Beginning inventory ( 65,000)
Purchases $ 657,000
* Excluding depreciation.
(c)
(d) Gross profit ($825,000 $572,000) $ 253,000
Less: Net income $ 24,500*
Depreciation 25,000 ( 49,500)
Other cash expenses $ 203,500
*110 percent of $20,000 (Year 1 N.I.) + 10 percent of $ 25,000 (Year 1 depreciation).
Basic of Solvency
Facts
Solvency -- long-run financial viability and

its ability to cover long-term obligations
Capital structure -- financing sources

and their attributes
Earning power recurring ability to

generate cash from operations
Loan covenants protection against insolvency and

financial distress; they define default (and the legal
remedies available when it occurs) to allow the
opportunity to collect on a loan before severe distress
Basic of Solvency
Capital Structure
Equity financing
Risk capital of a company
Uncertain and unspecified return
Lack of any repayment pattern
Contributes to a companys stability and solvency
Debt financing
Must be repaid with interest
Specified repayment pattern
When the proportion of debt financing is higher, the higher

are the resulting fixed charges and repayment commitments
Basic of Solvency
Motivation for Debt
From a shareholders perspective, debt financing is less

expensive than equity financing because:
1.Financial Leverage--Interest on most

debt is fixed, and provided interest is
less than the return earned from debt
financing, the excess return goes to
equity investors
2.Tax Deductibility of Interest--Interest is

a tax-deductible expense whereas
dividends are not
Basic of Solvency
Financial Leverage
Leverage -- use of debt to increase net income
Leverage:
Magnifies both managerial success (profits) and failure
(losses)
Increases risks
Limits flexibility in pursuing opportunities
Decreases creditors protection against loss
Companies with leverage are said to be trading on the equity

omplying a company is using equity financing to obtain debt
financing in a desire to reap returns above the cost of debt.
Basic of Solvency
Financial Leverage - Illustration
Basic of Solvency
Financial Leverage- Illustrating Tax Deductibility
of Interest
Basic of Solvency
Adjustments for Capital Structure - Liabilities
Potential accounts needing adjustments Chapter reference
Deferred Income Taxes Is it a liability, 3&6

equity, or some of both?
Operating Leases -- capitalize non- 3
cancelable operating leases?
Off-Balance-Sheet Financing 3
Pensions and Postretirement Benefits 3
Unconsolidated Subsidiaries 5
Contingent Liabilities 3&6
Minority Interests 5 Balance
Convertible Debt 3 Sheet
Preferred Stock 3
Basic of Solvency
Adjustments for Capital Structure - Assets
Potential accounts needing adjustments Chapter reference
InventoriesLIFO Reserve? 4
Marketable Securities 4
Intangible Assets 4&5
Balance
Sheet
Capital Structure and Solvency
Long-Term Projections
Projection of Future Cash Inflows and Outflows
Reflects on risk for a levered companys capital structure

Prepare a Statement of Forecasts of Cash Inflows and
Outflows
Chapter 9 described and illustrated long-term cash flow forecasts

Common-Size Statements
Capital structure composition analysis
Performed by constructing a common -

size statement of liabilities and equity
Reveals relative magnitude of financing sources
Allows direct comparisons across different
companies
Two Variations(1) Use ratios, and (2) Exclude current
liabilities
Capital Structure Measures
Total Debt to Total Capital (also called total debt ratio)
Total debt
Total capital
Total Debt to Equity Capital

Total debt
Shareholder s equity
Long -Term Debt to Equity Capital (also called

Debt to Equity)
Long -term debt

Shareholder s equity
Short-Term Debt to Total Debt
Equity Capital at Market Value

Interpretation of Capital Structure Measures
Common-size and ratio analyses of capital structure mainly reflect

capital structure risk
Capital structure measures serve as screening devices
Extended analysis focuses financial condition, results of
operations, and future prospects
Prior to long-term solvency analysis, we perform liquidity analysis
to be satisfied about near-term survival
Additional analyses include examination of
Debt maturities (amount and timing)
Interest costs
Risk-bearing factors (earnings persistence, industry
performance, and asset composition)
Asset-Based Measures of Solvency
Asset Composition Analysis
Tool in assessing the risk exposure of a capital structure

Typically evaluated using common-size statements
Asset-Based Measures of Solvency
Asset Coverage
Assets provide protection to creditors--earning power

and liquidation value
Base for additional financing
Useful ratios include:

Fixed assets to equity capital
Net tangible assets to long-term debt
Total liabilities to net tangible assets
Earning Coverage
Earnings to Fixed Charges
Earnings to fixed charges ratio
Earnings available for fixed charges

Fixed charges
Earnings to Fixed Charges
( a ) Pre-tax income from continuing operations plus (b ) Interest expense plus
(c ) Amortizat ion of debt expense and discount or premium plus (d ) Interest portion

of operating rental expenses plus (e ) Tax-adjusted preferred stock dividend requirements

of majority-owned subsidiari es plus ( f ) Amount of previously capitalize d interest

amortized in the period minus ( g ) Undistribu ted income of less than 50-percent-owned subsidiari es or affiliates
(h ) Total interest incurred plus (c ) Amortizat ion of debt expense and discount or
premium plus (d ) Interest portion of operating rental expenses plus (e ) Tax-adjusted

preferred stock dividend requirements of majority-owned subsidiari es
(a) Pre-tax income before discontinued operations, extraordinary items, and cumulative effects of accounting changes.
(b) Interest incurred less interest capitalized.
(c) Usually included in interest expense.
(d) Financing leases are capitalized so the interest implicit in these is already included in interest expense. However, the interest portion of long-term
operating leases is included on the assumption many long-term operating leases narrowly miss the capital lease criteria, but have many
characteristics of a financing transaction.
(e) Excludes all items eliminated in consolidation. The dividend amount is increased to pre-tax earnings required to pay for it. Computed as [Preferred
stock dividend requirements]/[1 Income tax rate]. The income tax rate is computed as [Actual income tax provision]/[Income before income taxes,
extraordinary items, and cumulative effect of accounting changes].
(f) Applies to nonutility companies. This amount is not often disclosed.
(g) Minority interest in income of majority-owned subsidiaries having fixed charges can be included in income.
(h) Included whether expensed or capitalized.
For ease of presentation, two items (provisions) are left out of the ratio above:
1. Losses of majority-owned subsidiaries should be considered in full when computing earnings.
2. Losses on investments in less than 50-percent-owned subsidiaries accounted for by the equity method should not be included in earnings
unless the company guarantees subsidiaries debts.
Earning Coverage
Earnings to Fixed Charges - Illustration
COMPUTECH CORPORATION
Income Statement
Net sales $ 13,400,000
Income of less than 50%-owned affiliates (all[nb]undistributed) 600,000
Total revenue $ 14,000,000
Cost of goods sold $ 7,400,000
Selling, general, and administrative expenses 1,900,000
Depreciation (excluded from above costs)3 800,000
Interest expense1net 700,000
Rental expense2 800,000
Share of minority interests in consolidated income4 200,000 11,800,000
Income before taxes $ 2,200,000
Income taxes:
Current $ 800,000
Deferred 300,000 (1,100,000)
Income before extraordinary item $ 1,100,000
Extraordinary gain (net of $67,000 tax) 200,000
Net income $ 1,300,000
Dividends:
On common stock $ 200,000
On preferred stock 400,000 600,000
Earnings retained for the year $ 700,000
Selected notes to the financial statements:
1 Interest expense is composed of the following:
Interest incurred (except items below) $ 740,000
Amortization of bond discount 60,000
Interest portion of capitalized leases 100,000
Interest capitalized (200,000)
Interest expense $ 700,000
2 Interest implicit in noncapitalized leases amounts to $300,000.
3 Depreciation includes amortization of previously capitalized interest of $80,000.
4 These subsidiaries have fixed charges.
Additional information (during the income statement period):
Increase in accounts receivable $ 310,000
Increase in inventories 180,000
Increase in accounts payable 140,000
Decrease in accrued taxes 20,000
Earnings to fixed charges ratio:
$2,2 0 0 (a) $7 0 0 (b an d c) $3 0 0 (d ) $8 0 (f) $6 0 0 (g ) $2 0 0 *
2.4 0
$8 4 0 (h ) $6 0 (c) $3 0 0 (d )
*Note: The SEC permits including in income the minority interest in the income of majority-owned subsidiaries having fixed
charges. This amount is added to reverse a similar deduction from income.
Earning Coverage
Tiimes Interest Earned
Times interest earned ratio
Income+Tax expense+Interest expense

Interest expense
Earning Coverage
Cash Flow to Fixed Charges
Cash Flow to Fixed Charges Ratio
Pre-tax operating cash flow +Adjustment s (b) (g)

Fixed charges
Earning Coverage
Cash Flow to Fixed Charges - Illustration
Fixed charges needing to be added back to CampuTechs pre-tax cash from
operations:
Pre-tax cash from operations $ 2,290,000
Interest expensed(less bond discount added back above) 640,000
Interest portion of operating rental expense 300,000
Amount of previously capitalized interest amortized during period* -
Total numerator $ 3,230,000
*Assume included in depreciation (already added back).
Fixed charges for the ratios denominator are:
Interest incurred $ 900,000

Interest portion of operating rentals 300,000
Fixed charges $ 1,200,000
CompuTechs cash flow to fixed charges ratio is: $3,230,000

2.69
$1,200,000
Earning Coverage
Earnings Coverage of Preferred Dividends
Earnings coverage of preferred dividends

ratio:
Pre-tax income + Adjusted (b)(g)
Preferred dividends
Fixed charges +
1 Tax rate
Earning Coverage
Interpreting Earnings Coverage
Earnings-coverage measures provide insight into
the ability of a company to meet its fixed charges
High correlation between earnings-coverage
measures and default rate on debt
Earnings variability and persistence is
important
Use earnings before discontinued
operations, extraordinary items, and
cumulative effects of accounting
changes for single year analysis
but, include them in computing the
average coverage ratio over several years
Earning Coverage
Capital Structure Risk and Return
A company can increase risks (and potential

returns) of equity holders by increasing leverage
Substitution of debt for equity yields a riskier
capital structure
Relation between risk and return
in a capital structure exists
Only personal analysis can
Return Risk
reflect ones unique risk and $ ?
return expectations
Rating Debt ObligationsAppendix 10A
Rating Criteria
Criteria determining a specific rating involve both

quantitative and qualitative factors
Asset protection
Financial resources
Earning power
Management
Debt provisions
Other: Company size, market share, industry position,
cyclical influences, and economic conditions
Ratings and Yields
Rating Criteria
Bond Quality Ratings

Rating Grades Standard & Poors Moodys
Highest grade AAA Aaa

High grade AA Aa
Upper medium A A
Lower medium BBB Baa
Marginally speculative BB Ba
Highly speculative B B, Caa
Default D Ca, C
Predicting Financial DistressAppendix 10B
Altman Z-Score
Z 0.717 X1 0.847 X2 3.107 X3 0.420X4 0.998X5
X1 = Working capital/Total assets

X2 = Retained earnings/Total assets
X3 = Earnings before interest and taxes/Total assets
X4 = Shareholders equity/Total liabilities
X5 = Sales/Total assets
Z<1.20 implies a high probability of bankruptcy

Z>2.90 implies a low probability of bankruptcy
1.20<Z<2.90 implies an ambiguous area

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Credit Analysis

Liquidity refers to the companys ability to meet short-

Liquidity is the ability to convert

Short term is the longer of one-year

Liquidity is a matter of degree

Lack of liquidity can limit

Severe illiquidity often precedes

Current assets are cash and other assets reasonably expected to be

Current assets include:

Classification as current asset

Analysis must assess this classification

1. Is classification as current asset appropriate?

Classification as current liability depends on:

Analysis must assess this classification

Working capital more relevant when related to other key

Working capital is of limited value as an absolute

Current Ratio Reflects on:

Current Ratio Limitations:

Current Ratio Limitations in Numerator

Failure to reflect open lines of credit

Three important qualifications

Two important elements are integral to use of the current

1. Quality of both current assets and current liabilities

Two useful tools in analyzing

Trend analysis -- components of working capital and the

Ratio Management (window dressing)

Proceeds from these activities are then

Rule of Thumb Analysis (2:1)

> 2:1 superior coverage of current liabilities (but not

< 2:1 deficient coverage of current liabilities

Net Trade Cycle Analysis

Working capital requirements are affected by its desired

We estimate Technology Resources purchases per day as:

Net trade cycle(days) = 66.24 days

Sales Trend Analysis

Trend analysis review of sales trend across time

Cash to Current Assets Ratio

Larger the ratio, the more liquid are current assets

Cash to Current Liabilities Ratio

Larger the ratio, the more cash available to pay current

Accounts Receivable Turnover

Net sales on credit

Days Sales in Receivables

Average Collection Period (alternative view)

Temporal Trend Analysis

1. Collection period over time

Cost of goods sold

Measures the average rate of speed inventories move

Inventories (Cost of goods sold / 360)

Shows the number of days required to sell ending

Conversion Period (Operating Cycle):

Days to Sell Inventory + Collection Period

Measure of the speed with which inventory is converted

Quality of Current Liabilities

Must be judged on their degree of urgency in

Must be aware of unrecorded liabilities having a claim

Days Purchases in Accounts Payable

Measures the extent accounts payable represent current