Basic Earned Value Management For Program Managers
Basic Earned Value Management For Program Managers
EVMS
Training Objectives
Understand basic concepts How to evaluate performance How to manage using Earned Value
need to answer:
EVMS
Who, what, where, when and why Basic EVMS terms Earned value and the project management cycle
Planning Executing Controlling Case Study
Managing with earned value data Closing Thoughts References (for further reading)
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EVMS
Why
EVMS
How are you doing, and how do you know how you are doing? How far along are you? (64%, 50%, >40%)
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EVMS
EVMS
Early and accurate identification of trends and problems Accurate picture of contract status
cost, schedule, and technical
Basis for course correction Supports mutual goals of contractor and customer
bring project in on schedule and cost
EVMS
What is EVMS?
EVMS
Work and resources are driven down to lowest level for execution A work authorization system is set up that controls changes to the baseline Budgets are earned as work is completed = EARNED VALUE Status provided against baseline
schedule and cost variances are isolated
Problem assistance early warning corrective plans Early insight provided into final estimated cost
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EVMS
Primary Users
Primary Implementers
Executive Agent
(compliance)
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EVMS
EVMS Criteria
Contractors management control system must meet certain criteria
DoD needs accurate and timely data
EVMS
A Spectrum of Implementation
Commercial or Defense
Where
Small Companies
Larger Companies
Government Organic
When
as desired
FFP contracts?
<$6M*
>$6M
Reports
streamlined, no paper?
tailored to needs
C/SSR
CPR
Core EV Principles
Tailored Applications
*with judgement
ANSI/EIA-748-1998
(32 criteria)
EVMS
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EVMS
to measure progress, there must be a standard against which the forward movement may be compared
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EVMS
baseline
$
earned value
time
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EVMS
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Total Budget
Its my pleasure to award you this contract for a new railroad track
What is the total job supposed to cost? What is the value of the contract at cost?
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EVMS
Total Budget = $5,000 to be spent over 5 months I plan to lay 1 section of track each month at an estimated cost of $1,000. BCWS each month = $1,000
EVMS
EVMS
VALUE concept
Were at the end of the second month, but only 1 section of track is complete. Value of work performed = $1,000
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EVMS
Schedule Variance
of the work I scheduled to have done, how much did I budget for it to cost?
of the work I actually performed, how much did I budget for it to cost?
BUDGET BASED
BC WS BC WP
SCHEDULE VARIANCE is the difference between work scheduled and work performed (expressed in terms of budget dollars)
formula:
example:
SV $ = BCWP - BCWS
SV = BCWP - BCWS = $1,000 - $2,000 SV= -$1,000 (negative = behind schedule)
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EVMS
Schedule Variance
5,000
sv
BCWP earned value
TIME
5 months
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EVMS
$
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
time when all work has been phased, cumulative BCWS = BAC e.g., $5,000 = $5,000
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EVMS
At the end...
At the end of the contract, when all work has been completed:
Ive earned all of my budget ($5,000)
BCWP (cumulative) = BCWS (cumulative) = therefore, schedule variance ($) =
$5,000 $5,000
0
Example:
I finished late, but I did finish SV ($) = $ 0 Formal schedule shows a 5 month actual delay in completing the contract
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EVMS
Labor came to $1,300, and materials cost $1,100. That first section of track cost $2,400!
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EVMS
Cost Variance
PERFORMANCE BASED
BC WP AC WP
of the work I actually performed, how much did I budget for it to cost?
of the work I actually performed, how much did it actually cost?
formula:
example:
CV $ = BCWP - ACWP
CV = BCWP - ACWP = $1,000 - $2,400 CV= -$1,400 (negative = cost overrun)
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Cost Variance
5,000
cv
TIME
5 months
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EVMS
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EVMS
B AC E AC
FORMULA: Example:
VAC = BAC - EAC VAC = $5,000 - $7,500 VAC = - $2,500 (negative = overrun)
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EVMS
BAC
TIME
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EVMS
QUESTION How much work should be done? How much work is done?
BCWP
How much did the is done work cost? What was the total job supposed to cost? What do we now expect the total job to cost?
ACWP
BAC
Estimate at Completion
EAC
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EVMS
BCWS ACWP
cv sv
BCWP
TIME
5 months
schedule variance = BCWP - BCWS = negative number cost variance = BCWP - ACWP = negative number
EVMS
Pop Quiz
BCWS BCWP
$
ACWP
TIME NOW
_______schedule, ___________cost
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EVMS
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Source: A Guide to the Project Management Body of KnowledgeTM, published by Project Management Institute
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control changes
performance reporting
understand variances
corrective actions
EVMS
control changes
performance reporting
understand variances
corrective actions
EVMS
Planning
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TIME
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Organizing
Objectives of organizing
establish a clear picture of the total project work scope
do we know what all of the work is?
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Process
Step 1: define the authorized work using a work breakdown structure (WBS)
decompose the work into manageable chunks provides a framework for program and technical planning cost estimating and resource allocation performance measurements and status reporting
Step 2: define the organizational structure Step 3: assign a single chunk of work to a single manager control account manager (CAM)
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Customer responsibility
Define upper levels of the WBS (to level 3)
MIL-HDBK-881, Work Breakdown Structure Write initial WBS dictionary and include in request for proposal
Contractor responsibility
Extend WBS to level where work is performed
define the elements extend WBS dictionary
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Assigning Work
WBS
Assignment of a single work element to a single team allows you to roll up the costs up either direction
ORGANIZATION
control account
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Control Account
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EVMS
Case Study
Part 1
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Contract Award
You are the program manager, I. M. Taz You just won a contract to eliminate varmints within the state of Arizona
birds (tweetie and road runner types) small animals
You have allocated the following budgets from your $50,000 award
EVMS
Varmint Control
1.1 Small Animals 1.1.1 wascally wabbits 1.1.1 1.1.2 wascally squirrels wabbits
1.2 Birds
1.2.1 tweetie
EVMS
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L. M. Fudd
Wile E. Coyote
Daffie Duck
EVMS
$5,000
$10,000 $10,000
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TIER 2
$
$
$
$
$
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Work
EVMS
Work Package
Work Packages
subset of control account Work Pkg #2 reasonably short in duration single element of cost (e.g., labor) Work Pkg #3 single technique for earning value consistent with detail schedules has same characteristics as control account scope of work milestone completion criteria single performing organization start and end dates
Work Pkg #1
$
$
$
$ $
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EVMS
rolling wave
detailed plans made for near term work packages planning packages are for future work and are not detailed CAMs periodically plan another increment of work packages
EVMS
Apportioned
discrete, dependent on another discrete work package example: quality assurance planned as historical estimating factor (e.g., 7%)
Level of Effort
no tangible end product basis of measurement: time when clock starts ticking, you automatically accumulate earned value no schedule variance example: management personnel
Should be a quantitative and discrete way to measure the work May tie in with success criteria or technical measure
e.g., successful completion of a specific test, reliability growth curve
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Be Discrete!
Discrete EV Techniques:
Method 0/100 How Value is Earned no EV at opening, 100% EV at close of WP
50/50
Units Completed Equivalent Units
Weighted Milestone
each milestone weighted based on planned resources ideal to have a milestone each month
subjective (least desirable)
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Percent Complete
EVMS
Material Concerns
Earned Value: taken no earlier than receipt
define order receipt payment to inventory usage
accurate cost accumulation and assignment to contract should perform price and usage variances should match earned value to payment period
otherwise, take estimated actuals to avoid artificial cost variance
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Scheduling
Scheduling system characteristics
complete all work included formal everyone uses same schedule traceable vertical (Master, Intermediate, Detail) horizontal (between tasks) consistent identifies sequence of tasks, interdependencies
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Contract SOW
SOW Paragraph 1.2.2: The contractor shall design, build, and install a system to capture and eliminate the species Road Runner within the state of Arizona. Contractors Winning Design: The basic system shall consist of five miles of road, a fake tunnel painted on a side of the mountain, plus a device to drop an anvil on the Road Runner.
Schedule Information
The contract was awarded in Month 1, and will be complete by the end of Month 6. You can begin building the road immediately, and plan on it taking about one month to complete one mile of road. It will take approximately three months to develop, build, and quality test the anvil support mechanism (ASM). You should begin the ASM install during the last month of the build cycle, during quality test. The ASM will take three months to install, and should be the last item completed on the contract, in Month 6. Based on past experience, you believe that it will take you two months to paint the fake tunnel. You will start it one month before the anvil support mechanism (ASM) begins installation. The anvil supplier, Acme Anvils, has been a good supplier for you in the past. The anvil is commercial off-the-shelf equipment. You need delivery one month before the install is complete.
$1,500 $10,000
EV Techniques
CONTROL ACCT. TITLE: Roadrunner BUDGET: $10,000 TIER I MILESTONE WP# WORK DESCRIPTION 1 Procure Anvil BCWP BCWS 2 Paint Fake Tunnel BCWP BCWS 3 Build Road BCWP BCWS 4 Build ASM BCWP BCWS 5 Install ASM BCWP TOTAL CONTROL ACCOUNT PLAN BCWS BCWP Schedule Variance month cumulative Actual Costs Cost Variance month cumulative EV METHOD BCWS KT AWD
KT COMP
EV Techniques
CONTROL ACCT. TITLE: Roadrunner BUDGET: $10,000 TIER I MILESTONE WP# WORK DESCRIPTION 1 Procure Anvil EV METHOD BCWS 0/100 BCWP BCWS 2 Paint Fake Tunnel 50/50 BCWP BCWS 3 Build Road units complete BCWP BCWS 4 Build ASM milestone BCWP BCWS 5 Install ASM % complete BCWP TOTAL CONTROL ACCOUNT PLAN BCWS BCWP Schedule Variance month cumulative Actual Costs Cost Variance month cumulative 600 600 v KT AWD
KT COMP
MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 TOTAL BAC 1,500 1,500 v 500 v 600 v 1,000 1 v v 1,000 2 v 600 v 1,000 3 v 500 v 500 500 v 2,600 500 10,000 v 600 600 v 3,000 3,000 500 1,000
1,500
1,600
2,100
2,600
EVMS
value is earned using the same method as it was planned sum of the work packages equals the control account budget
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More Acronyms!
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UB
Undistributed Budget
= authorized work held at top level until it can be planned in detail (will eventually have performance measurement)
PMB
MR
Management Reserve
= amount withheld at top level for control purposes (no performance measurement) = used for unforeseen changes that are within scope of the contract
CBB
EVMS
UB
$
$ $ $ CONTROL ACCOUNTS $ $ TIME NOW
time
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Did we fully plan all work? Do we understand the work? Do we have a reasonable schedule, with logic indicated? Do we have enough budget? Are the earned value techniques valid? Is the program manager paying attention?
Bottom line:
EVMS
Execute!
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EVMS
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cannot change budgets or costs for completed work except to fix errors
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Month 3:
The work package for the fake tunnel was opened ($200) A labor strike prevented a section of road from being built ($300) The ASM began to be built, but the unit was not complete ($800)
The tunnel was not completed ($400) The crew went back on the job, and got paid overtime. 2 road sections built for $1500. Milestone 2 for the ASM was finally complete. Quality test was pushed out 1 month. ($400) The install of the ASM was delayed, due to the delay in build. The anvil was ordered. The anvil was delivered and final cost was $1,700. The tunnel was complete ( painted). ($500) The last section of road was built for $700. Qual test completed. ($1,900) The CAM estimated that the install was approximately 20% complete ($400) Additional work crews were hired, and the installation was completed. The additional crews cost an additional $1,000. ($2,100 total)
Month 4:
Month 5:
Month 6:
EV Techniques
CONTROL ACCT. TITLE: Roadrunner BUDGET: $10,000 TIER I MILESTONE WP# WORK DESCRIPTION EV METHOD BCWS 1 Procure Anvil 0/100 BCWP BCWS 2 Paint Fake Tunnel 50/50 BCWP BCWS 3 Build Road units complete BCWP BCWS 4 Build ASM milestone BCWP BCWS 5 Install ASM % complete BCWP TOTAL CONTROL ACCOUNT PLAN BCWS BCWP Schedule Variance month cumulative Actual Costs Cost Variance month cumulative 600 600 600 v 600 KT AWD
KT COMP MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 1,500 1,500 500 v 600 600 1,000 1 1,000 v 500 600 1,000 2 v 600 1,200 1,000 v 3 1,000 500 v 1,600 1,600 2,100 500 2,600 2,200 300 2,600 3,900 1,200 500 1,200 10,000 10,000 500 600 600 3,000 1,000 500 3,000 500 1,000 TOTAL BAC 1,500
500
1,500
EVMS
Control
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EVMS
Control
So, your project has been baselined and work has started Is everything going according to plan? Next step in the process:
figure out your status figure out the problems figure out what you need to do to fix them figure out what the impact might be
BCWS
BCWP $
time
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Status Reporting
Assumption: An accurate management control system yields accurate data Basic principles:
Report on periodic basic
weekly monthly
Only ask for the data that you really need and use
can eliminate certain formats WBS versus organizational reporting tailor level of reporting to match risk
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Contractor Reports
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Formats 1 and 2
Contents
header:
basic contract information (target, ceiling, name of contractor, etc.) range of final estimates
body
performance data variances budget at completion, estimate at completion
CURRENT BCWS BCWP ACWP SV ELEMENT ELEMENT ELEMENT ELEMENT ELEMENT ELEMENT TOTAL UB PMB MR TOTAL CUMULATIVE BCWS BCWP ACWP SV AT COMPLETION BUDGET ESTIMATE VARIANCE
CV
CV
WBS or ORGANIZATION
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Differences
Does not require use of approved management system & criteria No current period reporting BCWS and BCWP may be calculated by logical means at higher levels
Application
non-major contracts
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Reform Initiatives
Tailoring
Only ask for the data that you are really going to use
Timing
flash data (early submittal of performance data before variance analysis)
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Analysis Techniques
or figuring out where the problems are
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Analysis Techniques
eliminate almost complete, just starting, etc.
Sort on significant variances Graph and analyze trends Look at comparative data
e.g. cumulative performance vs. projected performance
EVMS
DESCR IPTI ON PCC COMMU NIC ATIONS GEN & ADMIN SY S EN GIN EER ING I &A PROJ MAN AGEMENT FUNC I NTEGRA
Proj Ofcr %Comp %Spent Zepka Tideman 28.99 34.63 33.67 Pric e Troop Brown Pric e 85.04 35.40 45.70 71.62 84.18 20.87 17.87 60.82 38.51 0. 00 34.09 41.03 36.11 94.35 37.08 48.51 75.23 98.10 21.49 18.90 61.66 52.80 0. 00
CV
CV
CV % VAC
VAC -187.2 -87. 0 -36. 8 0. 0 -24. 8 -3.2 -30. 8 -16. 0 -21. 6 -6.2 -2.0 0. 0 439. 2 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 -1.4 0. 0 4. 6 8. 4
-296.2 -17. 62 -130.8 -18. 49 -45. 2 -26. 4 -24. 2 -17. 4 -17. 4 -13. 2 -10. 6 -7.8 -5.6 -4.6 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 2. 0 3. 4 4. 2 12.6 78.2 1. 98 3. 87 2. 10 5. 02 11.73 0. 00 -7.26 -10. 95 -4.75 -6.16 -5.03 -16. 54 -2.94 -5.78 -1.38
MANAGEMENT DATA Simmons SENSOR S SPARES SY STEM TEST ENG DATA MGT R ESER VE UN DIST BUD GET Smith Blair Hall Nov ak
-37. 10
15 COM COST OF MONEY 16 3700 17 OV 18 6100 19 3500 20 6300 21 3400 22 3300 DATA DI SPLAY OVERH EAD TEST FACILITI ES COMP PROGRAMS PCC TEST ADPE AUX EQUI P Smart Pino Bond Zepka Tideman 100. 00 46.46 23.13 41.89 27.57 98.02 44.66 22.64 39.79 24.33 Troop 41.13 41.13
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Graphing Techniques
Overall cost and schedule trend
-11%
M EGA HERZ ELEC & VEN Cost/Schedule Variance F04695-86-C-0050 M OH-2 RDPR FPI POP: 01 M AR 1992 - 15 SEP 1993 1992 1993 M AY JUN JUL AUGSEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 0% -6% -7%
Percent of Dollars
0.3 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Cost Drivers,
Dollars In M illions 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.5 4.2 5.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.7 3.8 5.3 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.0 4.2 5.6 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 Cause
At Completion KTR PO 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 23.0 0.0 -2.2
EAC realism
M EGA HERZ ELEC & VEN F04695-86-C-0050 RDPR FPI Element: 3600 Estimates at Completion 1992 1993 APR M AY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 8.0 Name: PCC
Dollars In Millions
PM B: 20.4 % COM P: 32.9M R: 0.4 KTR M R LRE: 0.0 PO M R LRE: 0.0 COST VARIANCE CURRENT FUNDING: 10.0 AS OF: JAN 93 SCHEDULE VARIANCE PO EPC: 24.0 OPR: M R B. TECH PROJ FUNDING: 23.0 PROGRAM :M ohawk Vehicle
7.0
6.0
5.0 BAC 5.1 LRE 5.4 CUM CPI 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.9 5.1 5.4 6.0 5.1 5.5 6.3 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.1 5.5 6.5 5.5 5.7 7.6 5.5 5.7 6.8 5.8 6.0 6.8
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Analysis of Variances
CURRENT OR CUM TO DATE
Schedule Variance
SV ($)
SV (%) =
Cost Variance
CV ($)
CV (%) =
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CASE STUDY
Part 4
92
1,300
Month 4
2,300
Month 5
5,200
Month 6 total
2,100 $13,300
EV Techniques
CONTROL ACCT. TITLE: Roadrunner BUDGET: $10,000 TIER I MILESTONE WP# WORK DESCRIPTION EV METHOD BCWS 1 Procure Anvil 0/100 BCWP BCWS 2 Paint Fake Tunnel 50/50 BCWP BCWS 3 Build Road units complete BCWP BCWS 4 Build ASM milestone BCWP BCWS 5 Install ASM % complete BCWP TOTAL CONTROL ACCOUNT PLAN BCWS BCWP Schedule Variance month cumulative Actual Costs Cost Variance month cumulative 600 600 600 v 600 KT AWD
KT COMP MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 1,500 1,500 500 v 600 600 1,000 1 1,000 v 500 600 1,000 2 v 600 1,200 1,000 v 3 1,000 500 v 1,600 1,600 2,100 500 2,600 2,200 300 2,600 3,900 1,200 500 1,200 10,000 10,000 500 600 600 3,000 1,000 500 3,000 500 1,000 TOTAL BAC 1,500
500
1,500
EV Techniques
CONTROL ACCT. TITLE: Roadrunner BUDGET: $10,000 TIER I MILESTONE WP# WORK DESCRIPTION EV METHOD BCWS 1 Procure Anvil 0/100 BCWP BCWS 2 Paint Fake Tunnel 50/50 BCWP BCWS 3 Build Road units complete BCWP BCWS 4 Build ASM milestone BCWP BCWS 5 Install ASM % complete BCWP TOTAL CONTROL ACCOUNT PLAN BCWS BCWP Schedule Variance month cumulative Actual Costs Cost Variance month cumulative 600 600 0 0 700 -100 -100 600 v 600 KT AWD
KT COMP MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 1,500 1,500 500 v 600 600 1,000 1 1,000 v 500 600 1,000 2 v 600 1,200 1,000 v 3 1,000 500 v 1,600 1,600 0 0 1,700 -100 -200 2,100 500 -1,600 -1,600 1,300 -800 -1,000 2,600 2,200 -400 -2,000 2,300 -100 -1,100 300 2,600 3,900 1,300 -700 5,200 -1,300 -2,400 1,200 500 1,200 700 0 2,100 -900 -3,300 13,300 10,000 10,000 500 600 600 3,000 1,000 500 3,000 500 1,000 TOTAL BAC 1,500
500
1,500
EVMS
Performance Indices
COST PERF INDEX (CPI) = BCWP ACWP
GOOD
1.2
SCHED PERF INDEX (SPI) = BCWP BCWS
1.1
TIME
1.0 BAD
CPI SPI
.9
.8
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EVMS
Schedule Status
TIME NOW
BCWS
compare
% completed = BCWP x 100% BAC
MONTHS BEHIND
BCWP
EVMS
compare: % spent
example:
vs.
% complete
EVMS
Variance Explanations
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Significant Variances
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0.8
0.6
0.2
0 1 2 3 Month 4 5
We are only 20% complete on installation, instead of our scheduled 66%. In order to meet contract schedule, we will have to expend overtime. Costs will increase by an expected $1,000.
Build ASM Build Road Procure Anvil Paint Fake Tunnel Install ASM
SV 0 0 0 0 -700
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EVMS
also called latest revised estimate (LRE), indicated final cost, etc.
EVMS
EVMS
Average of statistical formulae Show range of EACs (optimistic, most probable, pessimistic) Complete schedule risk analysis for remaining work, estimate work remaining
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Negative VAC:
EAC > BAC EAC > ceiling share area overrun contractor partial loss contractor loss (100%)
EVMS
Survey says..
EAC =
BAC CPI
at 15% complete point in program early stages! no one pays enough attention in the
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Change the mindsight Tailor to how the contractor actually manages Make it forward looking Assign responsibility within the government program office Set up a faster response time Acquire and use software analysis tools
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Ownership by program managers and IPTs Industry taking lead to make EVMS a basis business practice Use of earned value reporting as management tool to avoid cost overruns (forward looking) Schedule management an integral part of project management New focus for reviews baseline realism, executability insight, not oversight
EVMS
We must tailor it to reflect the management structure, policy, and operating culture of the contractor.
EVMS
Forward Look
Time now
CPI
COST HISTORY
COST AVOIDANCE
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TECHNICAL
Empowered by program manager... Manage assigned effort: Technical Schedule Cost Monthly variance analysis Understand the baseline
EVMS
Work closely with DCMC team Share results of analysis with contractor
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Flash data received ASAP, no written analysis EVMS and schedule managers review data Teleconference with DCMC
evaluate cost and schedule variances evaluate trends evaluate against program master schedule
EVMS
CAM
PAPER
GCAM
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EVMS
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Summary
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Additional References
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SCHEDULE TYPES
Gantt Chart
- Activities Show a Specific Start and Stop Date
Milestone Chart
- Major Event Oriented. Shows Start or Stop Date of Activity
Line of Balance
- Depicts Production Activity. Actual versus Planned Output
Networking
- Identifies and Defines all Activities and Events for a Program and Links Them in Logical Cause and Effect Sequences
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GANTT CHART
System No. 1000
Prior Schedule
Mo Yr 4
O N
M A
1 2
ACTIVITIES
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sys Integ Cintract award ADPE Instal & checkout Medical equip automatic checkout/test Equip Integration Software development Developmental testing System testing Facility mod (opnl site) ADPE Instal & checkout (opnl site) Med equip Installation Prototype test/evaluation Initial operational test and evaluation Engineering development
11 12
ACTUAL PROGRESS
SCHEDULED ACTIVITY
13 14 15
Attachm ent 3
Now
Attachment 6
NETWORK
0/0
Units
50 40 30 20 Actual delivery 10
XXP
XXP
1200
4/0
0/0
0
Month Contract Schedule Actual Delivery D 5 0 J 8 5 F 15 7 M 20 11 A 30 14 M 52 J 80
Bar 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
XXP
PROGRAM DEF
REVIEW/COMMENT
XXP
XXP
Fabricate fins
XXL
Assemble gyro
3
26
25 24
23
22
21
19
Attachment 1
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Ca t egor y Ma t er ia l
Defin it ion Ra w m a t er ia ls , p iece p a r t s , a n d low va lu e p u r ch a s ed it em s High cos t it em s t h a t a r e s t a n d a r d p r od u ct s s u ch a s fr om a ca t a log. Th es e a r e in d ivid u a lly t r a ck ed d u e t o t h eir cos t or cr it ica lit y t o t h e p r ogr a m
E a r n ed Va lu e Ap p r oa ch Per cen t com p let e a ga in s t t ot a l p r oject ed p u r ch a s e r equ ir em en t . Miles t on es b y or d er E a ch it em r ep r es en t s a n in d ivid u a l m iles t on e An or d er of m u lt ip le it em s m a y u s e p er cen t com p let e a ga in s t t h e t ot a l qu a lit y Miles t on es a ga in s t d eliver ies or s u b con t r a ct m iles t on es . Ma y r equ ir e es t im a t ed a ct u a ls or p er cen t com p let e if n o p r ogr es s p a ym en t s or in t er im d eliver ies Flow d own of Cos t / S ch ed u le S t a t u s Rep or t (C/ S S R) or C/ S CS C r equ ir em en t s . If s m a ll m a y u s e p a ym en t s a n d n egot ia t ed s u b con t r a ct m iles t on es .
Ma jor Ma t er ia l
High cos t (u s u a lly n egot ia t ed ) it em s p u r ch a s ed a ga in s t s p ecifica t ion or d r a win g. Th es e it em s r equ ir e in d ivid u a l m a n a gem en t
Cos t S u b con t r a ct s
High cos t (u s u a lly n egot ia t ed ) it em s p u r ch a s ed a ga in s t a s p ecifica t ion or d r a win g. Th es e it em s r equ ir e in d ivid u a l m a n a gem en t
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DO I HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT COST/SCHEDULE VARIANCES? Schedule Variance Cost Variance Plus (+) is good Plus (+) is good Minus (-) is bad Minus (-) is bad What is the variance % What is the variance % SV X 100 Is it on the critical path BCWS Schedule slack? Is it in an area that has been identified as a risk element? WHAT IS THE TREND (GETTING BETTER OR WORSE)? Chart the Cost/Schedule variance trends Does my contractor tell the same story as the data? When do I think the trend will improve? WHAT AM I DOING ABOUT IT? Causes Corrective actions Impact to the program
CV X 100 BCWP
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Behind Schedule
How critical is schedule? Can I afford to work overtime to recover? Can I do tasks concurrently? Are there technical innovations which could speed up the process? Am I gold plating instead of just meeting requirements? Should I do a schedule risk assessment to project impact to program?
Over Cost Can I reschedule tasks? (Timephasing) Is there a less costly facility I can use? Are there tasks which can be deleted? Should the element be added to my risk management profile?
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EVMS
GOAL: To Verify That Effective Variance Analysis Processes Are Applied To Identify, Correct, And Report Problems
POTENTIAL PROBLEM INDICATORS: Zero variances Monthly trends turning negative or downward Schedule variances generally indicate cost will follow Actuals > Latest Revised Estimates (LRE) BCWP increases with no increase in ACWP Negative data elements
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EVMS
FUTURE
$4000 $2600 = 1.54
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EVMS
BCWP BCWS
$1000 $2000
= .50
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EVMS
= BAC-BCWP LRE-ACWP
$4000 $4000
1.00
reasonable?
= .42
Contractor has been performing at 42% efficiency, but expects to complete remaining work at 100% efficiency!
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EVMS
1. Use a single management control system to provide accurate and timely performance data.
2. Integrate the scope of work, schedules, and costs using a common project language, such as a work breakdown structure.
3. Actual performance at the 15% complete point can be used to predict final performance. 4. Cumulative cost performance index (CPIe) measures efficiency and can be used to predict the final range of costs.
5. The schedule performance index (SPI) is useful in assessing how much work has been accomplished.
6. The CPI index provides a statistical basis for a best case final estimate. 7. The CPI and SPI indices may be combined to statistically forecast the most likely final estimate. 8. To Complete Performance Index provides a measure of efficiency required for the future work to achieve either a specified budget or estimate. 9. The periodic cost performance index for performance (CPIp), calculated by actuals/earned value, may be used to monitor weekly or periodic production progress. 10. Management should use management by exception to focus on significant variances to the plan and apply timely corrective actions. Source: Earned Value Project Management, Quentin W. Fleming & Joel M. Koppelman, Project Management Institute, 1996 130
Gary Christle, 22 Jan 94, paper, Implementation of Earned Value - A Model Program Approach USD(A&T) Letter, 25 Jan 94, Improved Cost and Schedule Performance Management Gary Christle, 15 Sep 94, paper, The Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria and Earned Value Management: A Vision USD(A&T) Letter, 1 Oct 96, Compliance Responsibility for the Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria (C/SCSC) 3 Oct 97, Earned Value Management Implementation Guide (Rev 1) USD(A&T) Letter, 14 Dec 96, Industry Standard Guidelines for Earned Value Management Systems Wayne Abba, article in Jan-Feb 97 Program Manager magazine, Earned Value Management - Reconciling Government and Commercial Practices ANSI/EIA 748-1998, Earned Value Management Systems Quentin W. Fleming & Joel M. Koppelman, book, Earned Value Project Management Earned Value web page: www.acq.osd.mil/pm
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