Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Commodity

Lecture 4
Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Primary Texts
Edwards and Ma: Chapter 16
CME: Chapter 8
Web Resources
http://stockcharts.com/school
Volatile Futures Prices
Trading Futures
Trading futures as a speculator is no different from trading any

other commodity or asset. Success depends on the ability to
Two techniques are commonly used to forecast prices
Accurately predict futures prices, and

Efficiently manage risks
Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
There are various strategies for managing the risks associated

with trading.
Fundamental analysis seeks to identify the fundamental economic

and political factors that determine a commoditys price.
It is basically an analysis of the (current and future) demand for

and supply of a commodity to determine if
a price change is imminent, and

in which direction and by how much prices are expected to change.
This approach requires
gathering substantial amounts of economic data and political

intelligence,
assessing the expectations of market participants, and
analyzing these information to predict futures price movement
Fundamental analysis focuses on cause and effect causes

external to the trading markets that are likely to affect prices in
the market.
These factors may include the weather, current inventory levels,

government policies, economic indicators, trade balances and even
how traders are likely to react to certain events.
Fundamental analysis maintains that markets may misprice a

commodity in the short run but that the "correct" price will
eventually be reached. Profits can be made by trading the
mispriced commodity and then waiting for the market to
recognize its "mistake" and correct it.
Various Techniques of Fundamental Analysis
The Demand-Supply Framework
Price Elasticity
The Balance Table
Stocks-to-Disappearance Ratio
The Tabular and Graphic Approach
The Regression Analysis
Econometric Models
Seasonal Price Index
Fundamental Analysis:
Market Demand: Market demand represents how much people are willing to
purchase at various prices. Thus, demand is a relationship between price and
quantity demanded, with all other factors remaining constant.
The economics of consumer

behavior derives the law of
demand
When price of a good goes up,
people buy less of that good
Leads to downward sloping
demand curve
Changes in Market Demand
Price change does not lead to change in demand
Change in anything other than price lead to demand changes Entire curve shifts
Income
Price of related goods - Substitutes and Complements
Consumer preference or Taste
Sales Tax
Consumer Expectations about future prices, product
availability, and income
Rise in demand the demand curve shifts to the right
Fall in Demand the demand curve shifts to the left.
Market Supply: Market supply represents how much producers are

willing to sell at various prices. Thus, supply is a relationship between
price and quantity supplied, with all other factors remaining constant.
The producer theory derives the

law of supply
When price of a good goes up,
quantity supplied goes up
Leads to an upward sloping
supply curve
Changes in Market Supply
Price change does not lead to change in supply
Change in anything other than price lead to supply changes Entire curve shifts
Production costs
Excise Tax
Rise in Supply the supply curve shifts to the right
Fall in Supply the supply curve shifts to the left.
Improvement in production technology

Change in the wage rate
Weather condition
Market Equilibrium: Actual

price and Quantity determined
by interactions between
demanders (consumers) and
suppliers (sellers)
Equilibrium Point: The point

where the market demand and
supply curves intersect
Price at which quantity
demanded equals quantity
supplied
The Effects of
Supply and
Demand Shifts
Although price is determined by the intersection of the market

demand and supply curves, typically demand is not readily
quantifiable.
The only theoretically acceptable means of quantifying demand is

to estimate demand curves through a detailed analysis of historical
consumption and price data.
Demand function for corn:
QCorn PCorn PWheat I
With historical data on QCorn, PCorn, PWheat, and I, one can estimate , , ,
and .
Similarly the supply function can also be estimated using

historical data.
The law of demand implies that the demand curve is negatively

sloped. However, the slope may vary.
Steeply-sloped demand curve Inelastic demand
Large change in price leads to small change in quantity
demanded
Flat demand curve Elastic demand
Small change in price leads to large change in the quantity
demanded
The elasticity of demand is primarily determined by two factors
Availability of substitutes
Percentage of total income spent on the good
The Price Elasticity of Demand
The price elasticity of demand is a measure of the

responsiveness of quantity demanded to a price change
Own Price Elasticity of Demand: The percentage change in the
quantity demanded relative to a percentage change in its own
price.
QD P QD
P
ED
QD
P
P QD
For a smooth (differentiable) demand curve, the price elasticity
of demand is given by
QD
P
ED
P QD
The Price Elasticity of Demand
Elasticity is a pure ratio independent of units.
Since price and quantity demanded generally move in

opposite direction, the sign of the elasticity coefficient is
generally negative.
Interpretation: If ED = - 2.72: A one percent increase in

price results in a 2.72% decrease in quantity demanded
Forecasting price using

the price elasticity of demand
Example
Elasticity of Demand for Cotton: Ed = 0.67
Cotton disappeared in quarter 3 of 2010 = 6.64 bill. Lbs

Cotton disappeared in quarter 4 of 2010 = 7.45 bill. Lbs
% change in Eq. Quant. Dem. = Q/Q = (7.45 6.64)/6.64 = 0.122
Ed = (Q/Q ) /(P/P )
0.67= 0.122 /(P/P )

P/P = 0.122/ 0.67= 0.182
If price of beef in quarter 3 of 2011 is 120 cents/lb, then

forecasted beef price for quarter 4 of 2011 is
P* = (1+ P/P)P = (1 0.182)120 = 0.818120 = 98.15 cents/lb.
Cross Price Elasticity of Demand
The cross price elasticity of demand is a measure of the

responsiveness of quantity demanded of X to a price change of Y
Cross Price Elasticity of Demand: The percentage change in
the quantity demanded of X relative to a percentage change in
the price of Y.
Q X PY Q X PY
E DXY
QX
PY
PY Q X
For a smooth (differentiable) demand curve, the cross price
elasticity of demand for X is given by
E DXY
Q X PY
PY Q X
Income Elasticity of Demand
The Income Elasticity of Demand is a measure of the

responsiveness of quantity demanded to change in consumers
income
Income Elasticity of Demand: The percentage change in the
quantity demanded relative to a percentage change in income.
QD I QD
I
EI
QD
I
I
QD
For a smooth (differentiable) demand curve, the income
elasticity of demand is given by
QD
I
EI
I
QD
The Price Elasticity of Supply
The price elasticity of supply is a measure of the responsiveness

of quantity supply to a price change
Own Price Elasticity of Supply: The percentage change in the
quantity supplied relative to a percentage change in its own
price.
QS P QS
P
ES
QS
P
P QS
For a smooth (differentiable) demand curve, the price elasticity
of demand is given by
QS
P
ES
P QS
Forecasting Price Using the

Equilibrium Displacement Model
The concept of elasticity is also useful for forecasting

changes in prices and quantities resulting from supply and
demand curve shifts.
Supply of pork decreases due to a tougher regulation on manure

treatment and disposal
Demand for pork increases due to an increase in the price of beef
If we know the elasticities of demand and supply, we can

calculate the changes in price and quantity demanded (or
supplied) by incorporating elasticities into a model called an
equilibrium displacement model.
Demand Equation
Q = (price, income, tastes and preferences, expectations,
d
and prices of other goods)
Demand changes (shifts) if any right hand side factor other
than price of the commodity changes
Supply Equation
Q = (price, input prices, prices of other goods,
s
expectations, technological change, number of producers)
Supply changes (shifts) if any right hand side factor other
than price of the commodity changes
Equilibrium: Price and quantity are determined by the

intersection of the demand and supply curves, where
Q = Q
d
s (i.e., quantity demanded = quantity supplied)
Equilibrium changes (gets displaced) if demand and/or

supply changes because of changes in any right hand side
demand and/or supply factor other than the price of the
commodity.
Suppose that an increase in income shifts the demand curve

to the right, and an increase in the production cost shifts the
supply curve to the left. As a result, new equilibrium price
will be higher and equilibrium quantity will be lower.
We can formalize this concept and write the demand equation as

%Q = E (%P) + S
d
d
d
Where, Ed is the elasticity of demand
Sd represents any exogenous demand shift the percentage change in

quantity demanded due to a change in the value of any right hand side
variable other than own price
Similarly, we can write the supply equation as
%Qs = Es(%P) + Ss
Where, Es is the elasticity of supply
Where, Ss represents any exogenous demand shift the percentage

change in quantity supplied due to a change in the value of any right
hand side variable other than own price
In equilibrium the percentage change in quantity demanded

must equal the percentage changed in quantity supplied, i.e.,
%Qd = %Qs
Ed(%P) + Sd = Es(%P) + Ss
Es(%P) Ed(%P) = Sd Ss
[Es Ed](%P) = Sd Ss
%P = [Sd Ss]/[Es Ed]
Thus, once we know the values of percentage change in demand

and/or supply because of an exogenous shock, we can easily
calculate the percentage change in price

%P = [Sd Ss]/[Es Ed]
Note that the denominator [Es Ed] is always positive, because Es is

positive and Ed is negative.
If Sd >0 and Ss =0, then %P >0
If Sd =0 and Ss >0, then %P <0
If Sd >0 and Ss >0 and Sd > Ss , then %P >0
If Sd >0 and Ss >0 and Sd < Ss , then %P <0
Once we calculate the percentage change in price %P, we can

substitute that value into the demand or supply equation to calculate the
percentage change in quantity demanded or supplied
%Qd = Ed(%P) + Sd = Ed [Sd Ss]/[Es Ed] + Sd

General steps in solving an equilibrium displacement model
Step 1: Determine the values of percentage change in demand
(Sd) and supply (Ss)
Step 2: Specify the % changes in quantity demanded and

supplied as
%Qd = Ed(%P) + Sd
%Qs = Es(%P) + Ss
Step 3: Set %Qd = %Qs and solve for %P
Step 4: Plug the calculated value for %P into the %Qd or

%Qs equation to calculate the percentage change in quantity.

Example: Impact of manure regulation in the pork market
Elasticity of pork demand, E = 1.96
d
Elasticity of pork supply, Es = 2.15
Because of a newly introduced tighter manure regulation, pork

supply falls by 4.3%, i.e., Ss= 4.3%
There is no change in pork demand, i.e., Sd = 0
Suppose that the current price for pork is $100/cwt and the
quantity bought and sold is 1,000 cwt per day.
What would be the new equilibrium price and quantity?

% change in pork price and quantity due to the supply shift
%P = [Sd Ss]/[Es Ed] = [0 ( 4.3)]/[2.15 ( 1.95)]

= 4.3/4.10 = 1.05%
Thus the pork price increases by 1.05%
So, the new equilibrium price would be
P* = (1+ %P)*P = (1+0.0105)*50 = 50.525/cwt.
%Qd = Ed [Sd Ss]/[Es Ed] + Sd
= ( 1.95) [0 ( 4.3)]/[2.15 ( 1.95)] + 0
= ( 1.95) 4.3/4.10 = ( 1.95) 1.05 = 2.05%
Thus the pork price decreases by 2.05%
So, the new equilibrium quantity would be, Q* = (1+ %Q)*Q
= (1- 0.0205)*1000 = 979.5 cwt.
The Balance Table
The Balance Table summarizes the key components of

current-season supply and disappearance, along with priorseason comparisons.
The Balance Table
Sources:
The balance between supply and disappearance indicates a season ending

stocks it is the relative magnitude of the stocks-to-disappearance ratio
that is considered the primary price determining statistic.
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Ag_Statistics/index.asp
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/feedgrains/Tables.aspx
Total Supply = Beginning Stocks + Production + Imports

Total Disappearance = Domestic Use + Exports
Year Ending Stocks = Total Supply Total Disappearance
Stocks-to-Disappearance Ratio = (Stocks/Disappearance) 100
Typically, some benchmark ratios are established for various crops using
historical stocks and disappearance data.
By comparing the current years stocks-to disappearance ratio to the
benchmark ratio, analysts estimate the price trend direction and extent.
The Balance Table
Examples:
For wheat, the benchmark stocks-to-disappearance ratio is typically
20%
If the current years stocks-to-disappearance ratio for wheat falls below

20%, prices are likely to rise in the coming months
If the current years stocks-to-disappearance ratio for wheat is above 20%,
prices are likely to fall in the coming months
For corn, the critical stocks-to-disappearance ratio is typically 12%

For soybeans, the critical stocks-to-disappearance ratio is typically
10%
Thus, appropriate trading strategies can be developed by comparing the
current years stocks-to-disappearance ratio with the historical
averages for different crops (USDA).
The Tabular and Graphic (TAG) Approach
The balance table only involves supply and disappearance statistics,

without any direct consideration of price thus, may lead to incorrect
conclusions.
The tabular and graphic (TAG) approach examines the relationship
between the balance table statistics along with prices.
The TAG method also considers other factors such as the supply of
substitute goods and income
Using the TAG approach, analysts collect and plot historical disappearance
data against corresponding prices, and analyze the correlation.
Inconsistencies are further explained by using disappearance data for
substitute goods.
The TAG approach is only well-suited to situations in which price
fluctuations can be largely explained by one or two variables.
Regression analysis provides a statistical procedure that can be used to

formalize the TAG approach.
For example, the price prediction equation for hogs can be expressed as
follows:
PHog 1 Hog 2Cattle 3Time
The values of the coefficients , 1, 2, and 3, can be estimated by

regressing historical hog prices on hog and cattle slaughter data along
with the time trend.
Given the estimates , 1, 2, and 3, and projections for hog and cattle
slaughter and the time trend, one can plug those values into the above
equation and obtain a precise price forecast.
Regression analysis is probably the single most useful analytical tool in
fundamental analysis.
Example: Hog slaughter and pig crop
Y = a + bX;
Assume that estimates of a = 0.232, and b = 0.9256.
Y = June-Nov Hog slaughter
X = Dec-May Pig crop
If X = 46 million, then Y = 0.232 +0.925646 = 42.8 million.
Econometric Models
Regression analysis employs only a single equation.

In some instances, it is theoretically more accurate to construct
multiple-equation models in which the equations are interrelated and
must be solved simultaneously.
Such models are frequently referred to as econometric models.
Various markets exhibit seasonal tendencies.

The concept of utilizing seasonal patterns in making trading decisions
is based on the assumption that seasonal influences will cause biases in
the movements of market prices.
Calculating a Seasonal Index the Average Percentage Method
Calculate an annual average for each year or season

Express each data item as a percentage of the corresponding annual
average
Average the percentage values for each period. The resulting numbers are
the seasonal index.
March Sugar Contract: Average Monthly Prices
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Avg.
1998
12.8
11.4
9.9
8.8
9.3
8.4
7.5
7.1
7.8
7.2
6.7
6.7
8.6
1999
8.5
9.3
11.5
12.5
12.1
12.5
11.2
10.8
9.6
8.7
7.7
6.9
10.1
2000
9.1
8.6
7.5
7.2
6.0
5.4
5.5
5.9
5.6
4.6
4.4
4.0
6.2
2001
5.5
5.0
4.2
3.8
4.0
5.0
5.8
5.6
6.1
6.1
5.6
5.8
5.2
2002
8.3
9.0
8.6
7.5
6.8
6.9
6.1
6.6
6.8
6.5
7.0
7.6
7.3
2003
8.3
7.6
7.7
7.4
7.0
6.7
6.9
7.4
7.7
8.6
9.8
8.5
7.8
2004
8.6
8.7
9.1
10.3
12.4
10.4
9.8
9.8
10.4
11.3
10.0
10.7
10.1
2005
11.3
11.7
11.6
12.0
13.0
12.9
13.5
14.0
14.8
13.5
14.5
14.7
13.1
2006
14.0
14.4
14.1
12.3
11.4
10.7
10.7
9.7
9.9
9.7
9.0
8.7
11.2
2007
8.5
8.3
7.8
8.3
8.7
8.4
8.8
8.8
8.6
8.9
8.4
8.1
8.5
2008
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.5
9.4
9.1
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.3
8.5
8.8
8.9
March Sugar Contract: Monthly prices as percentage of annual averages
Mar
1998
1999
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
148.3 132.0 114.7 101.9 107.7

84.1
Aug
97.3
Sep
86.9
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
82.2
90.3
83.4
77.6
77.6
92.0 113.8 123.7 119.7 123.7 110.8 106.8
95.0
86.1
76.2
68.3
91.1
74.8
71.5
65.0
2000
148.0 139.8 122.0 117.1
97.6
87.8
2001
105.6
73.0
76.8
96.0 111.4 107.5 117.1 117.1 107.5 111.4
2002
113.6 123.1 117.7 102.6
93.0
94.4
83.5
90.3
93.0
2003
106.4
97.4
98.7
89.7
85.9
88.5
94.9
98.7 110.3 125.6 109.0
2004
84.9
85.9
89.9 101.7 122.5 102.7
96.8
96.8 102.7 111.6
2005
86.1
89.1
88.4
96.0
80.6
94.9
91.4
99.0
89.4
95.9
88.9
95.8 104.0
98.8 105.7
98.3 102.9 106.7 112.8 102.9 110.5 112.0
2006
124.8 128.4 125.7 109.7 101.6
95.4
86.5
80.2
77.6
2007
100.4
99.2 103.9 103.9 101.6 105.1
99.2
95.7
2008
97.0
Indx
98.0
92.1
98.0 102.8
95.4
99.2 101.5 107.1 106.0 102.6 100.4
109.0 107.4 104.1 101.9 101.5
98.5
97.2
86.5
88.3
99.2
98.1
93.6
95.9
99.2
97.3
99.0
96.4
94.4
93.2
Technical Analysis:
Technical analysis is the study of historical prices for the purpose of

predicting prices in the future
Technical analysts frequently utilize charts of past prices to identify
historical price patterns
These price patterns are then used to forecast prices in the future
A basic belief of technical analysts is that market prices themselves
contain useful and timely information
Prices quickly reflect all available fundamental information, as well as other

information, such as traders expectations and the psychology of the market
Role of Technical Analysis

Identify and predict changes in direction of price trends
Determine the timing of action entry and exit decisions
Technical Analysis:
Chart Analysis
Chart Analysis - the basic tool of technical analysis
A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific time frame.
In statistical terms, charts are referred to as time series plots
Chart analysts plots historical prices in a two-dimensional graph in
order to identify price patterns which can then be used to predict the
futures direction of prices
The goal of any chart analyst is to find consistent, reliable, and logical
price patterns with which to predict future price movements
Chart analysts rely primarily on three bodies of data
Prices (monthly, weekly, daily, and intra-day)

Trading volumes, and
Open interest
Technical Analysis:
Chart Analysis
Price Pattern Recognition Charts
The most commonly used price pattern recognition charts are: bar
charts, line charts, candlestick charts, and point-and-figure charts
On these charts, the Y-axis (vertical axis) represents the price scale and
the X-axis (horizontal axis) represents the time scale. Prices are plotted
from left to right across the X-axis with the most recent plot being the
furthest right.
Bar Charts:
Bar charts mark trading activity of a specified trading period (e.g.,
day) by a single vertical line on the graph
This line connects the high and low prices for the trading period
The closing price is indicated by a horizontal bar
Technical Analysis:
Chart Analysis Bar Chart
Technical Analysis:
Chart Analysis Bar Chart
Bar charts can also

be displayed using
the open, high, low
and close. The
only difference is
the addition of the
open price, which
is displayed as a
short horizontal
line extending to
the left of the bar.
Technical Analysis:
Chart Analysis Bar Charts
Bar Charts: One-Day Price Reversals
Bar charts are frequently used to identify one-day price reversals.
A one-day price reversal occurs in a rising market when prices make
a new high for the current advance but then close lower than the
previous days close
A one-day price reversal occurs in a falling market when prices make
a new low for the current decline but then close higher than the
previous days close
Technical Analysis:
Chart Analysis Line Charts
Line Charts:
In a line chart, only the
closing prices are
plotted for each time
period.
Some investors and
traders consider the
closing level to be
more important than
the open, high or low.
By paying attention to
only the close, intraday
swings can be ignored.
Technical Analysis:
Chart Analysis Candlestick Charts
Candlestick Charts:
Originating in Japan over 300 years ago, candlestick charts have
become quite popular in recent years.
For a candlestick chart, the open, high, low and close are all required.
Hollow (clear) candlesticks form when the close is higher than the
open and Filled (solid) candlesticks form when the close is lower than
the open.
The white and black portion formed from the open and close is called
the body (white body or black body). The lines above and below are
called shadows and represent the high and low.
A daily candlestick is based on the open price, the intraday high and
low, and the close. A weekly candlestick is based on Monday's open,
the weekly high-low range and Friday's close.
Technical Analysis:
Common Shapes of Candles
Technical Analysis:
Bulls vs. Bears
A candlestick depicts the battle between Bulls (buyers) and Bears (sellers) over a given
period of time.
1. Long white candlesticks indicate that the Bulls controlled trading for most of the
period buying pressure.
2. Long black candlesticks indicate that the Bears controlled trading for most of the
period selling pressure.
3. Small candlesticks indicate that neither the bulls nor the bears were in control of
trading consolidation.
4. A long lower shadow indicates that the Bears controlled trading for some time, but
lost control by the end and the Bulls made an impressive comeback.
5. A long upper shadow indicates that the Bulls controlled trading for some time, but
lost control by the end and the Bears made an impressive comeback.
6. A long upper and lower shadow indicates that both the Bears and Bulls had their
moments during the trading period, but neither could put the other away, resulting in
a standoff.
Technical Analysis:
Hollow vs. Filled Candlesticks
Hollow candlesticks, where the close is higher than the open, indicate
buying pressure.
Filled candlesticks, where the close is lower than the open, indicate
selling pressure.
Long vs. Short Bodies
Generally speaking, the longer the body is, the more intense the
buying or selling pressure.
Long white candlesticks show strong buying pressure buyers are aggressive.
Long black candlesticks show strong selling pressure sellers are aggressive.
Conversely, short candlesticks indicate little price movement and

represent consolidation.
Technical Analysis:
White vs. Black Marubozus
Even more potent long candlesticks are the

Marubozu brothers, Black and White.
Marubozu do not have upper or lower shadows
and the high and low are represented by the open
or close.
A White Marubozu forms when the open equals
the low and the close equals the high.
This indicates that buyers controlled the price

action from the first trade to the last trade.
A black Marubozu forms when the open equals

the high and the close equals the low.
This indicates that sellers controlled the price action

from the first trade to the last trade.
Technical Analysis:
Long vs. Short Shadows
Candlesticks with short shadows indicate that most of the

trading action was confined near the open and close.
Candlestick with long shadows show that trades extended
well past the open and close
Candlesticks with a long upper shadow and short lower
shadow indicate that buyers dominated during the session,
and bid prices higher. However, sellers later forced prices
down from their highs, and the weak close created a long
upper shadow.
Conversely, candlesticks with long lower shadows and short
upper shadows indicate that sellers dominated during the
session and drove prices lower. However, buyers later
resurfaced to bid prices higher by the end of the session and
the strong close created a long lower shadow.
Technical Analysis:
Doji
Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually

equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary
and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross
or plus sign. Alone, doji are neutral patterns.
Doji convey a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between
buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the opening
level during the session, but close at or near the opening level.
The result is a standoff. Neither bulls nor bears were able to
gain control and a turning point could be developing.
Doji indicate that the forces of supply and demand are
becoming more evenly matched and a change in trend may be
near. Doji alone are not enough to mark a reversal and further
confirmation may be warranted. The relevance of a doji
depends on the preceding trend or preceding candlesticks.
Technical Analysis:
Doji and Trend
After an advance or long white candlestick, a doji

signals that buying pressure may be diminishing and
the uptrend could be nearing an end. However, even
after the doji forms, further downside is required for
bearish confirmation. This may come as a decline
below the long white candlestick's open.
After a decline or long black candlestick, a doji

indicates that selling pressure may be diminishing and
the downtrend could be nearing an end. However,
further strength is required to confirm any reversal.
Bullish confirmation could come as an advance above
the long black candlestick's open.
Technical Analysis:
Long Shadow Reversal

There are two pairs of single candlestick reversal patterns
made up of a small real body, one long shadow and one short
or non-existent shadow. Generally, the long shadow should
be at least twice the length of the real body, which can be
either black or white.
Hammer and Hanging Man: consists of identical candlesticks
with small bodies and long lower shadows.
The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that forms

after a decline. A Hammer signals a potential trend
reversal - that buying pressure is starting to increase. In
addition, hammers can mark bottoms or support levels.
The Hanging Man is a bearish reversal pattern that

forms after an advance. Hanging Man signals that selling
pressure is starting to increase. It can also mark a top or
resistance level.
Technical Analysis:
Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star

The Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star look exactly alike,
but have different implications based on previous price
action. Both candlesticks have small real bodies (black or
white), long upper shadows and small or nonexistent lower
shadows. These candlesticks mark potential trend reversals,
but require confirmation before action.
The inverted hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that
forms after a decline or downtrend. In addition to a
potential trend reversal, inverted hammers can mark
bottoms or support levels.
The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms
after an advance. A shooting star signals that selling
pressure is starting to increase. It can also mark a top or
resistance level.
Technical Analysis:
Chart Analysis Point-and-Figure Charts
Point-and-Figure Charts:
Point-and-figure charts are constructed by filling in boxes with either a

X or an O.
A price increase or decrease is defined as a price change that exceeds a
specified magnitude a price change less than that magnitude does not
receive an X or O in the chart
If prices are rising, the appropriate Xs are entered in a particular
column. When prices begin to decline, a new column is started, and Os
are entered in that column
Each price reversal results in the start of a new column
Point-and-figure Charts are based solely on price movement, and do
not take time into consideration. There is an x-axis but it does not
extend evenly across the chart.
Technical Analysis:
Technical Analysis:
Point-and-Figure Charts:
The objective of point-and-figure chart is to provide a smoothing

effect on the price changes that appear in a bar chart in order to detect
significant price trends and reversals.
Point-and figure charts can also be used to generate buy and sell
signals.
A buy signal occurs when an X in a new column surpasses the highest X

in the immediately preceding X column.
A sell signal occurs when an O in a new column is below the lowest O in
the immediately preceding O column.
This focus on price movement makes it easier to identify support and

resistance levels, bullish breakouts and bearish breakdowns.
Technical Analysis:
Common Technical Price Patterns
Chart analysis uses both trend lines and geometric formations to

predict market tops and bottoms, as well as future price movements
The most popular technical price patterns are
Support and Resistance,

Trend lines,
Double tops and bottoms, and
Head-and-shoulder.
Support and Resistance
A support level is a price level at which there appears to be substantial buying

pressure to keep prices from falling further
A resistance level is a price level at which there appears to be substantial selling
pressure to keep prices from rising further
A congestion area occurs when prices move sideways, fluctuating up and down
within a well defined range for a considerable time period
Technical Analysis:
A support level is a price level at which there appears to be substantial

buying pressure to keep prices from falling further
As the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more
inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price
reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and
prevent the price from falling below support.
Support can be established with the previous reaction lows.
A resistance level is a price level at which there appears to be

substantial selling pressure to keep prices from rising further
As the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and
buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance
level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from
rising above resistance.
Resistance can be established with the previous reaction highs.
Technical Analysis:
Common Technical Price Patterns
Technical Analysis:
Another principle of technical analysis is that support can turn into

resistance and visa versa.
Once the price breaks below a support level, the broken support level
can turn into resistance. The break of support signals that the forces of
supply have overcome the forces of demand. Therefore, if the price
returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in supply, and
hence resistance.
The other turn of the coin is resistance turning into support. As the
price advances above resistance, it signals changes in supply and
demand. The breakout above resistance proves that the forces of
demand have overwhelmed the forces of supply. If the price returns to
this level, there is likely to be an increase in demand and support will
be found.
Technical Analysis:
Technical Analysis:
Congestion Area Trading Range
A congestion area occurs when prices move sideways, fluctuating up

and down within a well defined range for a considerable time period
A congestion area signals that the forces of supply and demand are
evenly balanced.
When the price breaks out of the congestion area , above or below, it signals
that a winner has emerged - A break above is a victory for the bulls (demand)
and a break below is a victory for the bears (supply).
When the price breaks out of the congestion area by penetrating the support it is a
signal to sell.
When the price breaks out of the congestion area by penetrating resistance it is a
signal to buy.
Technical Analysis:
Congestion Area Trading Range
Technical Analysis:
Support and Resistance Zones
Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is sometimes

useful to create support and resistance zones.
Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and,
sometimes, zones work better.
Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level.
If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is
relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best
suited.
If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively
large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones.
These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range
should be judged on its own merits.
Technical Analysis:
Support and Resistance Zones
Technical Analysis:
Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essential

ingredient to successful technical analysis.
Even though it is sometimes difficult to establish exact support and
resistance levels, being aware of their existence and location can greatly
enhance analysis and forecasting abilities.
If a futures contract is approaching an important support level, it can
serve as an alert to be extra vigilant in looking for signs of increased
buying pressure and a potential reversal.
If a futures contract is approaching a resistance level, it can act as an alert
to look for signs of increased selling pressure and potential reversal. If a
support or resistance level is broken, it signals that the relationship
between supply and demand has changed.
A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper
hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle .
Technical Analysis:
Trend Lines
Technical analysis is built on the assumption that prices trend.
A common trading strategy is to identify a price trend and then go
with the trend.
A trend line is a straight line that connects periodic highs or lows on a

price chart and then extends into the future to act as a line of resistance
or support.
Two common types of trend lines
Uptrend lines
Downtrend lines
Technical Analysis:
Uptrend Lines
An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two

or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for
the line to have a positive slope.
Uptrend lines act as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less
supply) is increasing even as the price rises.
A rising price combined with increasing demand is very bullish, and
shows a strong determination on the part of the buyers.
As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered
solid and intact.
A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened
and a change in trend could be imminent.
When price falls below the uptrend line, this is a signal to sell
or go short.
Technical Analysis:
Uptrend Line
Technical Analysis:
Downtrend Lines
A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting

two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first
for the line to have a negative slope.
Downtrend lines act as resistance, and indicate that net supply (supply
less demand) is increasing even as the price declines.
A declining price combined with increasing supply is very bearish, and
shows the strong resolve of the sellers.
As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid
and intact.
A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing
and that a change of trend could be imminent.
When price breaks above the downtrend line, this is a signal

to buy or go long.
Technical Analysis:
Downtrend Line
Technical Analysis:
Trend Lines - Conclusions
The general rule in technical analysis is that it takes two points to

draw a trend line and the third point confirms the validity.
It can sometimes be difficult to find more than 2 points from which to
construct a trend line.
Even though trend lines are an important aspect of technical analysis,
it is not always possible to draw trend lines on every price chart.
Sometimes the lows or highs just don't match up, and it is best not
to force the issue.
Trend lines can offer great insight, but if used improperly, they can
also produce false signals
Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve
merely as a warning that a change in trend may be imminent.
Technical Analysis:
Double Tops or Bottoms
Double tops or bottoms are frequently used to identify a price reversal.

In an uptrend, the failure of prices to exceed a previous price peak on
two occasions is considered a double top.
This is a warning signal that the uptrend may be about to end and a
downtrend to commence
However, the formation of a double top is not considered confirmed until
falling prices penetrate the previous low from the above.
A double bottom is just the mirror image of a double top.

In a downtrend, the failure of prices to penetrate previous support levels
on two occasions is considered a double bottom.
This is a warning signal that the downtrend may be about to end and an
uptrend to commence
Technical Analysis:
Double Tops
Technical Analysis:
Double Tops
Prior Trend: In the case of the double top, a significant uptrend should be in place.
First Peak: The first peak should mark the highest point of the current trend.
Trough: After the first peak, a decline takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%.
Second Peak: The advance off the lows usually occurs with low volume and meets
resistance from the previous high. Resistance from the previous high should be expected.
Usually a peak within 3% of the previous high is adequate.
Decline from Peak: The subsequent decline from the second peak should witness an
expansion in volume and/or an accelerated descent, perhaps marked with a gap or two.
Support Break: Breaking support from the lowest point between the peaks completes the
double top. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated descent.
Support Turned Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance and there is
sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a test can offer
a second chance to exit a position or initiate a short.
Price Target: The distance from support break to peak can be subtracted from the support
break for a price target. This would infer that the bigger the formation is, the larger the
potential decline.
Technical Analysis:
Double Bottoms
Technical Analysis:
Double Bottoms
Prior Trend: In the case of the double bottom, a significant downtrend should be in place.
First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend.
Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%.
Second Trough: The decline off the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets
support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. While exact
troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver and usually a trough within 3% of the
previous is considered valid.
Advance from Trough: Volume is more important for the double bottom than the double top.
There should be clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the
advance off of the second trough.
Resistance Break: Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the
double bottom. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent.
Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is
sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a
second chance to close a short position or initiate a long.
Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of
the resistance break to estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the
larger the potential advance.
Technical Analysis:
Double Tops and Bottoms
60-70% reliable
Frequently seen in grains and livestock commodities
On 2 consecutive days or across several weeks
Technical Analysis:
Head-and-Shoulders Tops or Bottoms
Head-and-Shoulders formations are among the most frequently used

technical patterns for identifying a price reversal.
Head-and-Shoulders formations consist of four phases:
The left shoulder

The head
The right shoulder
The penetration of the neckline
A head-and-shoulder reversal pattern is complete only when the

neckline is penetrated, either in an upward or downward direction.
Head-and-Shoulder top: The formation is complete when price penetrate the

neckline from above indicating a reversal from a uptrend to a downtrend.
Head-and-Shoulder bottom: The formation is complete when price penetrate the
neckline from below indicating a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Technical Analysis:
Head-and-Shoulders Top
Technical Analysis:
Head-and-Shoulders Tops
Prior Trend: Without a prior uptrend, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point
of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the
shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend
intact.
Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high
and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the
second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line,
putting the uptrend in jeopardy.
Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is
lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder.
While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from
the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.
Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end
of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and
the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low
points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal.
Technical Analysis:
Head-and-Shoulders Tops
Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in
confirmation. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should
be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of
the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume
increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume
further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.
Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not
reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing
manner, with an expansion in volume.
Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support
level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the
support break, and offer a second chance to sell.
Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by
measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then
subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough
guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous
support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.
Technical Analysis:
Head-and-Shoulders Bottom
Technical Analysis:
Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms
Prior Trend: Without a prior downtrend, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders Bottom
formation.
Left Shoulder: While in a downtrend, the left shoulder forms a trough that marks a new
reaction low in the current trend. After forming this trough, an advance ensues to complete
the formation of the left shoulder (1).
Head: From the high of the left shoulder, a decline begins that exceeds the previous low and
forms the low point of the head. After making a bottom, the high of the subsequent advance
forms the second point of the neckline (2).
Right Shoulder: The decline from the high of the head (neckline) begins to form the right
shoulder. This low is always higher than the head, and it is usually in line with the low of the
left shoulder. When the advance from the low of the right shoulder breaks the neckline, the
Head and Shoulders Bottom reversal is complete.
Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting reaction highs 1 and 2. Reaction High 1 marks
the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Reaction High 2 marks the end of
the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the
two reaction highs, the neckline can slope up, slope down, or be horizontal.
Technical Analysis:
Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms
Volume: While volume plays an important role in the Head and Shoulders Top, it plays a
crucial role in the Head and Shoulders Bottom. Without the proper expansion of volume,
the validity of any breakout becomes suspect.
Volume on the decline of the left shoulder is usually pretty heavy and selling pressure
quite intense.
The advance from the low of the head should show an increase in volume
Neckline Break: The Head and Shoulders Bottom pattern is not complete, and the
downtrend is not reversed until neckline resistance is broken. For a Head and Shoulders
Bottom, this must occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion of volume.
Resistance Turned Support: Once resistance is broken, it is common for this same
resistance level to turn into support. Often, the price will return to the resistance break, and
offer a second chance to buy.
Price Target: After breaking neckline resistance, the projected advance is found by
measuring the distance from the neckline to the bottom of the head. This distance is then
added to the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide,
and other factors should be considered, as well.
Technical Analysis:
Head-and-Shoulders Tops or Bottoms
70-80% reliable in terms of significant move after neckline is broken

Time required to complete can be days or up to several weeks
Frequently seen in grains and livestock commodities
Easy to recognize
Low trading volume on each side of the head confirms the formation
Market Trend Analyses:
Market trend analyses use more complex price charts as well as

volume and open interest figures to determine both the existence of
price trends and the strength of these trends.
Moving Averages
Rate of Change Indicators: Momentum and Oscillator
Volume and Open Interest

Moving Averages
Moving averages are used to determine price trends and trend changes
A moving average is a statistical technique for smoothing price
movements in order to identify trends more easily.
A simple n-day moving average is the average of the most recent n daily
closing prices
The number of days used to compute the average determines the

sensitivity of the average to new price movements
A 5-day moving average is the average of the last 5 daily closing prices.
A 25-day moving average is the average of the last 25 daily closing prices.
The more days that are used, the less sensitive is the average
Weighted moving averages can also be constructed
If greater weights are given to more recent prices, the average becomes more
sensitive to price change

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

Moving Averages: Trading strategy
Sometimes traders use two moving averages to determine buy and sell
decisions.
Using a slow moving average (more days) together with a fast moving
average (fewer days) generates the following trading strategies:
Buy when the faster moving average goes above (crosses) the slower one
(from below). Sell when the faster moving average goes below (crosses)
the slower one (from above).
Buy when prices are above both the fast and slow moving averages. Sell
when prices are below both the fast and slow moving averages.
As with most tools of technical analysis, moving averages should not be

used on their own, but in conjunction with other tools that complement
them. Using moving averages to confirm other indicators and analysis
can greatly enhance technical analysis.

Rate of Change Indicators: Momentum and Oscillator
Rate of change indicators, such as momentum and oscillator indices, are

used as leading indicators of price changes.
Rate of Change (ROC):
ROC
Today ' s change Change n periods ago

100
Change n periods ago
Momentum and Oscillator are based on price changes rather than price
levels, and are used to determine when a price trend is weakening or
strengthening, or losing or gaining momentum.
Momentum Index: A momentum index measures the acceleration or
deceleration of a price advance or decline by using absolute price
movements over a fixed time interval.
Oscillator Index: An oscillator index is a normalized form of a
momentum index.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an extremely useful and popular

momentum oscillator - Developed by J. Welles Wilder (1978).
The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's or futures recent gains to
the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a
number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the
number of time periods (standard 14 days) to use in the calculation.
RSI = 100 100/(1+RS)
RS = Average Gain / Average Loss

First Average Gain = Total of gains during the first 14 periods / 14
Average Gain = [previous average gain 13 + Current Gain] / 14
First Average Loss = Total of losses during the first 14 periods / 14
Average Loss = [previous average loss 13 + Current Loss] / 14
Losses are also reported as positive values

Wilder recommended using 70 and 30 as overbought and oversold

levels respectively.
RSI 70 => Market is overbought Dont buy (long)

RSI 30 => Market is oversold Dont sell (short)
Generally, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish for the

underlying stock. Conversely, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish
signal.
The centerline for RSI is 50. A reading above 50 indicates that average
gains are higher than average losses and a reading below 50 indicates
that losses are winning the battle.
Some traders look for a move above 50 to confirm bullish signals or a
move below 50 to confirm bearish signals.


Volume and Open Interest
Technical analysts believe that volume and open interest provide

information about whether a price move is strong or weak.
If prices are rising and open interest and volume are increasing new money
is thought to be flowing in the market, reflecting aggressive new buying
Bullish
If prices are rising but volume and open interest are declining the rally is
thought to be caused primarily by short covering money is leaving rather than
entering the market the uptrend will probably end once the short covering is
complete Bearish.
If prices are falling but volume and open interest are rising new money is
thought to be flowing in the market reflecting aggressive new short selling
the downtrend will probably continue Bearish
If prices are falling and volume and open interest are declining the price
decline is considered to be the result of losing longs liquidating their positions weak downtrend the downtrend will probably end soon Bullish

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What are the two main techniques used to forecast futures prices?

What are the two main techniques used to forecast futures prices?

What are some factors that can cause changes in market demand?

What are some factors that can cause changes in market demand?

Lecture 4

Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Volatile Futures Prices

Trading futures as a speculator is no different from trading any

Two techniques are commonly used to forecast prices

Accurately predict futures prices, and

There are various strategies for managing the risks associated

Fundamental analysis seeks to identify the fundamental economic

It is basically an analysis of the (current and future) demand for

a price change is imminent, and

This approach requires

gathering substantial amounts of economic data and political

Fundamental analysis focuses on cause and effect causes

These factors may include the weather, current inventory levels,

Fundamental analysis maintains that markets may misprice a

Various Techniques of Fundamental Analysis

The Demand-Supply Framework

The Balance Table

The Tabular and Graphic Approach

The Regression Analysis

Seasonal Price Index

The economics of consumer

Market Supply: Market supply represents how much producers are

The producer theory derives the

Improvement in production technology

Market Equilibrium: Actual

Equilibrium Point: The point

Although price is determined by the intersection of the market

The only theoretically acceptable means of quantifying demand is

Similarly the supply function can also be estimated using

The law of demand implies that the demand curve is negatively

The price elasticity of demand is a measure of the

The Price Elasticity of Demand

Elasticity is a pure ratio independent of units.

Since price and quantity demanded generally move in

Interpretation: If ED = - 2.72: A one percent increase in

Forecasting price using

Elasticity of Demand for Cotton: Ed = 0.67

Cotton disappeared in quarter 3 of 2010 = 6.64 bill. Lbs

% change in Eq. Quant. Dem. = Q/Q = (7.45 6.64)/6.64 = 0.122

0.67= 0.122 /(P/P )

If price of beef in quarter 3 of 2011 is 120 cents/lb, then

P* = (1+ P/P)P = (1 0.182)120 = 0.818120 = 98.15 cents/lb.

The cross price elasticity of demand is a measure of the

The Income Elasticity of Demand is a measure of the

The price elasticity of supply is a measure of the responsiveness

Forecasting Price Using the

The concept of elasticity is also useful for forecasting

Supply of pork decreases due to a tougher regulation on manure

If we know the elasticities of demand and supply, we can

Equilibrium Displacement Model

Equilibrium Displacement Model

Equilibrium: Price and quantity are determined by the

Equilibrium changes (gets displaced) if demand and/or

Suppose that an increase in income shifts the demand curve