Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is usually an
hypothesis of "no difference" e.g. no

difference between blood pressures
in group A and group B.
Define a null hypothesis for each
study question clearly before the
start of your study.
Thealternative hypothesis (H1)is the

opposite of the null hypothesis; in plain
language terms this is usually the hypothesis
you set out to investigate. For example,
question is "is there a significant (not due to
chance) difference in blood pressures between
groups A and B if we give group A the test
drug and group B a sugar pill?" and alternative
hypothesis is " there is a difference in blood
pressures between groups A and B if we give
group A the test drug and group B a sugar pill"
The P value or calculated probability is the

estimated probability of rejecting thenull
hypothesis (H0)of a study question when
that null hypothesis is true.
In other words, the P-value may be
considered the probability of finding the
observed, or more extreme, results when
the null hypothesis is true the definition
of extreme depends on how the
hypothesis is being tested.
The null hypothesis is rejected if the p-value is less than

thesignificance or level. The levelis the
probability of rejecting the null hypothesis given that it is
true (type I error) and is most often set at 0.05 (5%).
If your P value is less than the chosen significance level
then you reject the null hypothesis i.e. accept that your
sample gives reasonable evidence to support the
alternative hypothesis
Otherwise, If theP-value is less than (or equal to) , then
the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative
hypothesis. And, if theP-value is greater than , then the
null hypothesis is not rejected.
in Statistics"significant" means probably true(not due

to chance). A research finding may be true without being
important. When statisticians say a result is "highly
significant" they mean it is very probably true.
The termsignificance level (alpha)is used to refer to a
pre-chosen probability and the term "P value" is used to
indicate a probability that you calculate after a given study.
No statistical package will show you "95%" or ".95" to
indicate this level. Instead it will show you ".05," meaning
that the finding has a five percent (.05) chance of not being
true, which is the converse of a 95% chance of being true
Type I erroris the false rejection of the null

hypothesis andtype II erroris the false
acceptance of the null hypothesis.
Accept H0:
Reject H0:
DECISION TRUTH
H0is true:
correct
type I error
decision P
H0is false
1-alpha
alpha
(significance)
type II error
P
correct
decision P
beta
1-beta (power)
H0= null hypothesisP = probability
Notes aboutType I error:

is the incorrect rejection of the null hypothesis
maximum probability is set in advance as alpha
is not affected by sample size as it is set in advance
increases with the number of tests or end points (i.e. do 20 rejections
of H0and 1 is likely to be wrongly significant for alpha = 0.05)
Notes aboutType II error:

is the incorrect acceptance of the null hypothesis
probability is beta
beta depends upon sample size and alpha
can't be estimated except as a function of the true population effect
beta gets smaller as the sample size gets larger
beta gets smaller as the number of tests or end points increases
the null hypothesis (H0) and the alternative hypothesis (HA). Here, our
hypotheses are:
H0: Defendant is not guilty (innocent)
HA: Defendant is guilty
In statistics, we alwaysassume the null hypothesis is true. That is,
the null hypothesis is always our initial assumption.
The prosecution team then collects evidence such as finger prints,
blood spots, hair samples, carpet fibers, shoe prints, ransom notes,
and handwriting samples with the hopes of finding "sufficient
evidence" to make the assumption of innocence refutable.
In statistics, thedataare the evidence.
The jury then makes a decision based on the available evidence:
If the jury finds sufficient evidence beyond a reasonable doubt to
make the assumption of innocence refutable, the juryrejects the null
hypothesisand deems the defendant guilty. We behave as if the
defendant is guilty.
If there is insufficient evidence, then the jurydoes not reject the
null hypothesis. We behave as if the defendant is innocent.
In statistics, we always make one of two decisions. We either "reject
the null hypothesis" or we "fail to reject the null hypothesis."
Errors in hypothesis testing

Did you notice the use of the phrase "behave as if" in the previous
discussion? We "behave as if" the defendant is guilty; we do not
"prove" that the defendant is guilty. And, we "behave is if" the
defendant is innocent; we do not "prove" that the defendant is
innocent.
This is a very important distinction! We make our decision based
on evidence not on 100% guaranteed proof. Again:
If we reject the null hypothesis, we do not prove that the
alternative hypothesis is true.
If we do not reject the null hypothesis, we do not prove that the
null hypothesis is true.
We merely state that there is enough evidence to behave one way
or the other. This is always true in statistics! Because of this,
whatever the decision,there is always a chance that we made
an error.
Let's review the two types of errors

that can be made in criminal trials:
Truth
Jury
Decision
Not Guilty
Guilty
Truth
Null
Alternative
Hypothesis Hypothesis
Not Guilty
OK
ERROR
Decision
Guilty
ERROR
OK
Do not
reject null
OK
Type II
ERROR
Reject null
Type I
ERROR
OK
Type I error: The null hypothesis is rejected when it is true.

Type II error: The null hypothesis is not rejected when it is false.

Null Hypothesis

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Null Hypothesis

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The null hypothesis is usually an

hypothesis of "no difference" e.g. no

Thealternative hypothesis (H1)is the

The P value or calculated probability is the

The null hypothesis is rejected if the p-value is less than

in Statistics"significant" means probably true(not due

Type I erroris the false rejection of the null

H0= null hypothesisP = probability

Notes aboutType I error:

Notes aboutType II error:

Errors in hypothesis testing

Let's review the two types of errors

Type I error: The null hypothesis is rejected when it is true.

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