HRP
HRP
HRP
INTRODUCTION
HR programming
HRP
Implementation
Control and
Evaluation of
Programme
Surplus
restricted hiring Shortage
reduced hours Recruitment and
Selection
Figure 2–4 Model of HR Forecasting
FORECASTING
FORECASTINGDEMAND
DEMAND
Considerations
Considerations Techniques
Techniques BALANCING
BALANCING
• •Product/service • •Trend SUPPLY
SUPPLYAND
Product/servicedemand
demand Trendanalysis
analysis DEMAND
AND
• •Technology • •Managerial DEMAND
Technology Managerialestimates
estimates
• •Financial
Financialresources
resources • •Delphi technique
Delphi technique
• •Absenteeism/turnover
Absenteeism/turnover (Shortage)
(Shortage)
• •Organizational
Organizationalgrowth
growth Recruitment
Recruitment
• •Management philosophy
Management philosophy • •Full-time
Full-time
• •Part-time
Part-time
• •Recalls
Recalls
Techniques
Techniques External
ExternalConsiderations
Considerations
• •Staffing
Staffingtables
tables • •Demographic
Demographicchanges
changes
(Surplus)
(Surplus)
• •Markov • •Education Reductions
Markovanalysis
analysis Educationof
ofthe
theworkforce
workforce Reductions
• •Skills inventories • •Labor mobility • •Layoffs
Layoffs
Skills inventories Labor mobility
• •Replacement • •Government • •Terminations
Replacementcharts
charts Governmentpolicies
policies Terminations
• •Succession planning • •Unemployment • •Demotions
Succession planning Unemploymentraterate Demotions
• •Retirements
Retirements
FORECASTING
FORECASTINGSUPPLY
SUPPLY
11
5-8
Forecasting techniques
Management Forecasts
The opinions (judgments) of supervisors, department managers, experts, or
others knowledgeable about the organization’s future employment needs.
Delphi Technique
An attempt to decrease the subjectivity of forecasts by soliciting and
summarizing the judgments of a preselected group of
individuals.The final forecast represents a composite group
judgment.
Forecasting techniques
Trend Analysis: This is based on the assumption that the future is
an extrapolation from the past. Human resource needs, as such, can
be estimated by examining pas trends.
Supply Forecasting
P r o m o t io n s
T r a n s fe rs Q u its
C u r r e n t S ta ffin g
P r o m o t io n s Level Te r m in a t io n s
E m p lo y e e s I n E m p lo y e e s O u t
N e w R e c ru its R e t ir e m e n t s
R e c a lls D e a th s
L a y o ffs
C u rre n t P r o je c t e d P r o je c t e d F ir m ’s in t e r n a l
s ta ffin g – o u tflo w s + in f lo w s = s u p p ly fo r th is
le v e l th is y e a r t h is y e a r tim e n e x t y e a r
S to re M a n a g e rs 80% 20%
(n = 1 5 )
12 3
A s s t. S to re 11 % 83% 6%
M a n a g e rs
4 30 2
(n = 3 6 )
S e c t io n 15%
11 % 66% 8%
H eads
(n = 9 4 ) 11 63 8 14
D e p a r tm e n ta l
10% 72% 2% 16%
H eads
(n = 2 8 8 ) 29 207 6 46
S a le s
E x e c u tiv e s 6% 74% 20%
(n = 1 4 4 0 ) 86 1066 288
F o re c a s te d
S u p p ly 16 41 92 301 1072 353
F ig u r e s in c ir c le s s h o w t h e t r a n s it i o n p e r c e n t a g e s
Supply Forecasting
Skills inventory: It is a summary of the skills and abilities of non
managerial employees used in forecasting supply. Such a record helps
an organization to quickly match forthcoming job opening with
employee background.
K e y w o rd s W o rk e x p e rie n c e
W o rd D e s c r ip tio n A c t iv ity F ro m To
A c c o u n t in g Ta x S u p e r v is io n 1998 2000 Ta x c le r k ABC C om pany
a n d a n a ly s is
B o o k K e e p in g Ledger S u p e r v is io n 2000 2002 A c c o u n ta n t XYZ Co.
A u d itin g C o m p u te r A n a ly s is 2002 2003 C h ie f A c c o u n t s T T B a n k
re c o rd s O ffic e r
D e g re e M a jo r Ye a r C o u rse D a te 1 . A IM A
M BA F in a n c e 1998 D BF 1996 2 . IS T D
B .C o m A c c o u n ts 1995 R is k M a n a g e m e n t 1999 3 . IC A
C o m p u te r Languages P o s it io n L o c a tio n H o b b ie s
L ite r a c y p re fe re n c e c h o ic e
Ta ll y F re n c h A c c o u n tin g K o lk a t a C hess
B a n k in g A u d it in g D e lh i F o o t b a ll
S o ftw a re B a n g a lo r e B o a t in g
E m p lo y e e s S ig n a tu re _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ H R D e p a rtm e n t_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
D a te _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ D a te _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Supply Forecasting
Replacement chart: It is a visual representation of who will replace
whom in the event of a job opening.
Replacement chart
G e n e ra l M a n a g e r Key
V. K . G a rg N a m e s g i v e n a r e r e p la c e m e n t
A /2 c a n d id a te s
P A to A . P r o m o t a b le n o w
G e n e ra l M a n a g e r B . N e e d in g d e v e l o p m e n t
L . M a th e w s C . N o t s u it a b l e t o p o s it io n
B /1 1 . S u p e rio r p e rfo rm a n c e
2 . A b o v e A v e ra g e p e rfo rm a n c e
A s s is t a n t G e n e r a l M a n a g e r 3 . A c c e p ta b le p e r f o rm a n c e
R .K . A ro ra A /2 4 . P o o r p e rfo rm a n c e
B .K . N e h ru B /3
D iv is io n : D iv is io n : D iv is io n :
A c c o u n t in g & P la n n i n g M a n a g e r Te c h n ic a l A d v is o r
H R M anager
Ta x a t io n M a n a g e r A .N . G u p ta A /1 N .R . M u rth y B /3
C .P. T h a k u r A /1
A .T. R o y C /2 K . P. R a o B /1
N o r t h e r n R e g io n C e n t r a l R e g io n S o u t h e r n R e g io n M a n a g e r E a s te rn R e g io n
M anager M anager A . S u b ra m a n y a m B /2 M anager
L . C . S r iv a t s a v A / 2 S .P. K u m a r A /1 B .K . M e n o n B /1 R . K r is h n a B /3
A. Thapar C /4 R . P andey B /3
Supply Forecasting
B) External Labour supply: External hires need to be contacted
when suitable internal replacements are not available. A growing
number of firms are now using computerised human resource
information systems to track the qualifications of hundreds or
thousands of employees. HRIS can provide managers with a
listing of candidates with required qualifications after scanning the
data base.
Formulating HR Plans
Once supply and demand for labour is known adjustments can be
made formulating requisite HR plans
A variety of HR plans
Recruitment plan
Redeployment plan
Redundancy plan
Training plan
Productivity plan
Retention plan
Accuracy
Resistance by employees
Inadequate top management support
focus on quantitative aspects.