Decay Effects in Online Advertising: Quantifying The Impact of Time Since Last Exposure

Decay Effects in Online Advertising: Quantifying
the Impact of Time Since Last Exposure

Authors:
Christian Kugel, Starcom IP

Bill Havlena, Ph.D., Dynamic Logic
Jeffrey Graham, Dynamic Logic
Presented at the ARF 50th Annual Convention – April 26-28, 2004 – New York City
Starcom IP/Dynamic Logic Partnership
• Starcom IP and Dynamic Logic have collaborated on more than
50 advertising effectiveness studies measuring the effects of both
Internet and Television advertising
• Starcom IP
– Leading interactive agency
• Dynamic Logic
– Independent research company specializing in measuring marketing
effectiveness
– Has conducted studies for 47 out of Top 50 U.S. Advertisers
Purpose of this research
• To quantify the decay dynamics of brand metrics following OTS of
online advertising
– Magnitude of decay
– Rate of decay
• Brand metrics of interest include:

– Aided Brand Awareness
– Aided Online Advertising Awareness
– Message Association
– Brand Favorability
– Purchase Intent
• Outcome will inform:

– Media planning decisions such as scheduling
– Impact of decay on Internet-based ad effectiveness measurement
Research hypothesis
• Expectation is that as time since last exposure
increases, branding scores will decrease
• Because minimal literature exists, analysis was a

discovery process designed to uncover:
– Rate of decay (How fast the decay occurs)
– Nature of decay (Which metrics are most affected)
Approaches explored
• Primary data
– Specifically designed to measure decay
– One brand in relatively static situation
– Apply AdIndex methodology to capture exposed respondents at some point
following OTS
– Benefits: controlled environment, homogenous data
– Cons: cost and timing; limited data set
• Normative data
– Mine Dynamic Logic MarketNorms database
– Based on time stamp field, identify cases which represent various periods of times
between OTS and survey completion
– Benefits: large amount of data readily available, cost, timing
– Cons: Heterogeneous data could limit analysis
Data summary
• Stratified sample of 2003 MarketNorms data
– All cases where difference between OTS and survey completion is
greater than one day
– Random sample of 5,200 cases where survey occurred immediately
following OTS
• Respondents gathered from surveys across CPG, Auto, and

Pharmaceutical verticals
– Total sample n=28,416
• Models contained multiple controls, including frequency

MarketNorms overview
• A vast normative database designed to be used as a strategic research, decision support
and comparative tool for measuring online advertising and marketing effectiveness
- 4+ years of data - 14,000+ creatives
- 1200+ campaigns - 1,200,000+ respondents
• Data collected using a control/exposed research design which isolates the effects of
online advertising from other variables; most data collected shortly after last ad exposure
• Variables measured that are relevant to the study:
- Time since last exposure (electronic data)
- Frequency (electronic data)
- Demographics (survey data)
- Industry category (study classification)
Analytical approaches
• Respondent-level data
– Logistic regression
– Independent variables: Frequency and recency of OTS, age, gender,
income
– Dependent variables: Binomial indication of awareness or persuasion
• Aggregated-level data
– Cross-tab brand metrics with time (in days) since exposure
– OLS regression against the tabbed data
– Independent variable: Recency of OTS
– Dependent variable: Percent of respondents at Day X who indicate
affirmative response to brand metric
Results: Respondent Level Data
Findings – Respondent-level
• Binary logistic regression testing relationship between time since last
exposure (day intervals) and brand scores
– Data tested with a variety of time intervals and controls
• Overall respondent-level analysis indicates significant, but very small,
negative impact of decay on 4 brand metrics at 95% level
– Aided Brand Awareness
– Brand Favorability
– Purchase Intent
• Positive impact of frequency on Aided Brand Awareness, Brand
Favorability, and Purchase Intent at 95% level
• No significant interaction effects between time since last exposure and
frequency were observed
Findings – Respondent-level
• Differences were observed across industry
verticals for some metrics
– Pharmaceutical category was the only vertical to
exhibit significant decay in Online Ad Awareness at the
individual respondent level
– No significant effect of online ad exposure frequency
was seen at the individual level within Automobile
category when controlling for recency and
demographic differences
Decay of Aided Brand Awareness
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Time since last exposure (in weeks)
• Relationship between brand score and time since last exposure is not
monotonic and appears to be affected by intervening and other individual
factors; other variables (such as demographics) played a significant role
Results: Aggregated Data
Distribution of cases
Time Cases Time Cases
differential differential
(days) (days)
1 27,039 8 76
2 253 9 59
3 160 10 35
4 103 11 32
5 85 12 28
6 83 13 21
7 85 14 23
Findings – Aggregated data
• Only one of five brand metrics measured exhibited
evidence of decay
– “Days since last OTS” contributed a significant
coefficient at 95% confidence
• Aided Brand Awareness, Message Association,

Brand Favorability, and Purchase Intent were not
significantly predicted by recency of OTS
– No clear evidence of decay in this data set
Decay of Aided Ad Awareness
40%
35%
30%
Respondents aware of
onlin advertising
25%
20%
15%
y  0.317  (.008  DSO)
10% Adj. r2 = 0.603
5%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DSO-Days since last OTS
• For every day since last OTS, aggregate aided online advertising
awareness decreases 0.8 percentage points.
Conclusions/Implications
• Both analytical methods suggest effects of decay on
advertising effectiveness are limited
• Disaggregated analysis using logistic regression indicates

that recency and frequency alone offers poor predictive
ability; Aggregated data also shows limited effects
• Because rate of decay is not dramatic, decay may not

significantly impact fairness of Internet-based ad
effectiveness measurement
Recommendation for future research
• Primary data can be applied to any brand for situation-specific
insights
– Specifically recruit respondents at various points since last OTS
– Expectation is that any number of variables influence rate of and
magnitude of decay
• Study could be replicated within cross-media research study

framework
• Once decay dynamics are known, media planner should create

scenarios to inform scheduling
Thank you!
Christian Kugel, Starcom IP

Bill Havlena, Ph.D., Dynamic Logic
Jeffrey Graham, Dynamic Logic

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Decay Effects in Online Advertising: Quantifying

the Impact of Time Since Last Exposure

Christian Kugel, Starcom IP

• Brand metrics of interest include:

• Outcome will inform:

• Because minimal literature exists, analysis was a

• Respondents gathered from surveys across CPG, Auto, and

• Models contained multiple controls, including frequency

• Aided Brand Awareness, Message Association,

DSO-Days since last OTS

• Disaggregated analysis using logistic regression indicates

• Because rate of decay is not dramatic, decay may not

• Study could be replicated within cross-media research study

• Once decay dynamics are known, media planner should create

Christian Kugel, Starcom IP

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