A random variable X is said to have a continuous uniform
distribution (or rectangular distribution) over the interval [a, b] if its probability density function has the form: 1 a xb f ( x) b a 0 otherwise The graph of its probability density function is as follows: f(x)
Solution: X has a uniform distribution over the interval (5, 15). ab 5 15 a) E [ X ] 10 2 2 1 1 1 Var[ X ] (b a) 2 (15 5 ) 2 8 12 12 3 b) The p.d.f. for X is shown on the diagram below. The probability we require is shaded.
P(X > 140) = P(X = 141) + P(X = 142) + … + P(X = 1200). As no tables exist for this distribution, calculating this probability by hand would be a mammoth task. A further problem arises if you attempt to work out one of these probabilities, for example P(X = 141):
P( X 141) 1200 C141 0.1141 0.91059
Calculators cannot calculate the value of this coefficient – it is too large!
A continuity correction must be applied when approximating
a discrete distribution (such as the binomial) to a continuous distribution (such as the normal distribution). Continuity correction: Approximate distribution: Exact distribution: B(n, p) N[np, npq]
Introductory example (continued): 10% of people in
the United Kingdom are left-handed. A school has 1 200 students. Find the probability that more than 140 of them are left-handed.
Solution: Let the number of left-handed people in the school be X. Then the exact distribution for X is X ~ B[1200, 0.1]. Since np = 120 > 5 and nq = 1080 > 5 we can approximate this distribution using a normal distribution: X ≈ N[120, 108].
schoolchildren are short-sighted. Find the probability that in a group of 80 schoolchildren there will be a) no more than 15 children that are short-sighted b) exactly 10 children that are short-sighted.
Solution: Let the number of short-sighted children in the group be X. Then the exact distribution for X is X ~ B[80, 0.15]. Since np = 12 > 5 and nq = 68 > 5 we can approximate this distribution using a normal distribution: X ≈ N[12, 10.2].
Examination-style question: A sweet manufacturer makes sweets in 5 colours. 25% of the sweets it produces are red. The company sells its sweets in tubes and in bags. There are 10 sweets in a tube and 28 sweets in a bag. It can be assumed that the sweets are of random colours. a) Find the probability that there are more than 4 red sweets in a tube. b) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that a bag of sweets contains between 5 and 12 red sweets (inclusive).
Solution: a) Let the number of red sweets in a tube be X. Then the exact distribution for X is X ~ B[10, 0.25]. This distribution cannot be approximated by a normal but its probabilities are tabulated: P(X > 4) = 1 – P(X ≤ 4) = 1 – 0.9219 = 0.0781 So the probability that a tube contains more than 4 red sweets is 0.0781.
Solution: b) Let the number of red sweets in a bag be Y. Then the exact distribution for Y is Y ~ B[28, 0.25]. This distribution can be approximated by a normal since np = 7 and nq = 21 (both greater than 5): Y ≈ N[7, 5.25] npq
P(5 ≤ Y ≤ 12) → P(4.5 ≤ Y ≤ 12.5) Using continuity correction
Key result: If X ~ Po(λ) and λ is large, then X is approximately
normally distributed: X ≈ N[λ, λ]
Recall that the mean and variance of a Poisson distribution
are equal. There is a widely used rule of thumb that can be applied to tell you when the approximation will be reasonable: A Poisson can be approximated reasonably well by a normal distribution provided λ > 15.
Example: An animal rescue centre finds a new home for
an average of 3.5 dogs each day. a) What assumptions must be made for a Poisson distribution to be an appropriate distribution? b) Assuming that a Poisson distribution is appropriate: i. Find the probability that at least one dog is rehoused in a randomly chosen day. ii. Find the probability that, in a period of 20 days, fewer than 65 dogs are found new homes.
Solution: a) For a Poisson distribution to be appropriate we would need to assume the following: 1. The dogs are rehoused independently of one another and at random; 2. The dogs are rehoused one at a time; 3. The dogs are rehoused at a constant rate.
b) i) Let X represent the number of dogs rehoused on a
given day. So, X ~ Po(3.5). P(X ≥ 1) = 1 – P(X = 0) = 1 – 0.0302 (from tables) = 0.9698
b) ii) Let Y represent the number of dogs rehoused over a
period of 20 days. So, Y ~ Po(3.5 × 20) i.e. Po(70). As λ is large, we can approximate this Poisson distribution by a normal distribution: Y ≈ N[70, 70]. P(Y < 65) → P(Y ≤ 64.5)
Examination-style question: An electrical retailer has
estimated that he sells a mean number of 5 digital radios each week. a) Assuming that the number of digital radios sold on any week can be modelled by a Poisson distribution, find the probability that the retailer sells fewer than 2 digital radios on a randomly chosen week. b) Use a suitable approximation to decide how many digital radios he should have in stock in order for him to be at least 90% certain of being able to meet the demand for radios over the next 5 weeks.
Solution: a) Let X represent the number of digital radios sold in a week. So X ~ Po(5). P(X < 2) = P(X ≤ 1) = 0.0404 (from tables). So the probability that the retailer sells fewer than 2 digital radios in a week is 0.0404.
b) Let Y represent the number of digital radios sold in a
period of 5 weeks. So, Y ~ Po(25). We require y such that P(Y ≤ y) = 0.9.
