Final Simulation

SIMULATION
GROUP NO-6
ASHISH KAPOOR-9
AVINASH KAUR-10
PRIYANKA BHARDWAJ- 30
SHREYASH YADAV-38
RAJEEV VASUDEVAN- 51
ALISHA SHARMA- 123
CONTENTS
• DEFINITION
• USES
• MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
• STEPS
• APPLICATION
Simulation
• Definition
• Simulation is a process of designing a model of a real
system and conducting experiments with model for the
purpose of understanding the behavior of operation of
system.
It means deriving measures of performance about a
complex system by conducting sampling experiments on
a mathematical model of a system over a period of time.
Contd…..
• It is helpful in the systems which involve uncertainty.
• Simulation is useful in solving problems where all
values of the variables are either not known or
partially known.
• In situations where it is difficult to predict or
identify bottlenecks, Simulation is used to foresee
these unknown difficulties.
• The simulation approach is useful to study a
problem that involves uncertainty
Contd…
• Estimates the performance of existing system
existing system
• Maintain much better control
• Allows to study a system with long
time frame
• Useful for sensitivity analyses
• Used as pre-test to try new policies
and decision rule
Advantages of Simulation
• To solve cumbersome problems
• Experiment
• Study the long term effect
• To test proposed analytical solutions
• Stability
• Generation of data
• Modification
• Bifurcation system
• No interference
• Time saving
• Last resort
Disadvantages
• Not precise
• Expensive
• No optimal solution
• Non transferable
• Inefficient
• Adhoc
Applications of simulation
• Location of emergency vehicles
• Inventory policy decisions
• Financial planning (portfolio selection, capital
budgeting decisions)
• Scheduling production processes
• Design of sophisticated products such as reactors,
military equipments, planes, ships etc.
• Deciding the crew size for breakdowns/queing systems
• Weather forecast
• Forecasting demand, sales, costs, profits etc.
Steps involved in Simulation
1) Definition of problem and statement of objectives.
2) Construction of an appropriate model.
3) Experimentation with the model constructed.
4) Evaluation of the results of simulation.

Monte Carlo simulation
• This technique is based upon probability
distribution and the use of random numbers.
• It is more popular in business applications due to its
ease of implementation and low costs.
• The chance element is very significant feature of
this simulation.
Steps involved in Monte Carlo
• Find the cumulative Probability
• Assign random numbers corresponding to the

Probability
• From the random number tables, chose a set of

required random numbers from any part of the
table. This can be done by following any fixed pattern
like row wise, column wise, diagonal wise.
• Choice of random numbers whether single digit,

double digit, triple digit etc. depends upon the
number of places to which Probability is known.
How are random numbers
selected???
• Table- random number
• Dices
• Computer generated
• By coin
Random Numbers
To start with…….
• Question- A bakery keeps stock of popular cake.
Previous experience indicates the demand
given below.
Daily 0 10 20 30 40 50
Demand
Probability .01 .20 .15 .50 .12 .02
Consider the following sequence of random

numbers , simulate demand for next ten days
Solution –
Demand Probability Cumulative Random. No.
0 0.01 0.01 00
10 0.20 0.21 1- 20
20 0.15 0.36 21- 35
30 0.50 0.86 36- 85
40 0.12 0.98 86- 97
50 0.02 1.00 98- 99
Demand Random.
0
No.
00
Determination of
10
20
1- 20
21- 35
demand
30 36- 85
40 86- 97 Days Random no. Demand
50 98- 99 1 48 30
2 78 30
3 19 10
4 51 30
5 56 30
6 77 30
7 15 10
8 14 10
9 68 30
10 9 10
ANSWER
• DAILY AVERAGE DEMAND= 220/ 10
= 22
USE OF SIMULATION IN
WEATHER FORECAST
• Question- the occurrence of rain in a city is
dependent on whether or not it rained on
previous day, if it did, the distribution is given
by- Event ( rain in Probability Event ( rain in Probability
cm.) cm.)
0 0.75 0 0.50
1 0.15 1 0.25
2 0.06 2 0.15
3 0. 04 3 0.05
4 0.03
5 0.02
• Simulate weather
forecast for ten days.
Allocation of random number( rain
on previous day)
Event ( rain in Probability Cumulative Random

cm.) numbers.
0 0.50 0.50 00-49
1 0.25 0.75 50-74
2 0.15 0.90 75-89
3 0.05 0.95 90-94
4 0.03 0.98 95-97
5 0.02 1.00 98-99
Allocation of random number ( no
rain on previous day)
Event ( rain in Probability Cumulative Random
cm.) numbers.
0 0.75 0.75 0- 74
1 0.15 0.90 75-89
2 0.06 0.96 90-95
3 0. 04 1.00 96-99
Simulation work sheet
67 63 39 55 29 78 70 06 78 76
Day Random Event table

number
1 67 No 2
2 63 No 2
3 39 No 2
4 55 No 2
5 29 No 2
6 78 1 cm 2
7 70 1 cm 1
8 06 No 1
9 78 1 cm 2
10 76 2 cm 1
Thus the total rain during the period was 5 c.m

Simulation in Manufacturing
Plants
QUE:The Cargo Honda ltd. manufactures around150 scooters.
The daily product varies from 146 to 154 depending upon the
availability of raw materials and other working conditions…
PRODUCTION PER DAY PROBABILITY

146 0.04
147 0.09
148 0.12
149 0.14
150 0.11
151 0.10
152 0.20
153 0.12
154 0.08
Cont…….
The finished scooters are transported in a specially arranged lorry accomodating 150
scooters.using the following random numbers:
80,81,76,75,64,43,18,26,10,12,65,68,69,61,57, stimulate the process to find out:
1) what will be the average numbers of scooter waiting in the factory?
2) what will be the average numbers of empty space in the lorry?
PRODUCTUON PER DAY PROBABILITY CUMULITIVE PROB RANDOM NUMB ASSIGNED

Sol:
146 0.04
147 0.09
148 0.12
149 0.14
150 0.11
151 0.10
152 0.20
153 0.12
154 0.08
Cont…….

Sol:
146 0.04 0.04
147 0.09 0.13
148 0.12 0.25
149 0.14 0.39
150 0.11 0.50
151 0.10 0.60
152 0.20 0.80
153 0.12 0.92
154 0.08 1.00
Cont…….

Sol:
146 0.04 0.04 00-03
147 0.09 0.13 04-12
148 0.12 0.25 13-24
149 0.14 0.39 25-38
150 0.11 0.50 39-49
151 0.10 0.60 50-59
152 0.20 0.80 60-79
153 0.12 0.92 80-91
154 0.08 1.00 92-99
Based on the 15 random numbers given, we simulate production
per day in the table below
S.NUM RANDOM NO. PRODUCTION CAPACITY LORRY NO. OF NO. OF EMPTY
PER DAY SCOOTER(WAITI SPACES IN THE
NG) LORRY
1 80 153 150 3 0
2 81 153 150 6 0
3 76 152 150 8 0
4 75 152 150 10 0
5 64 152 150
6 43 150 150
7 18 148 150
8 26 149 150
9 10 147 150
10 12 147 150
11 65 152 150
12 68 152 150
13 69 152 150
NG) LORRY
1 80 153 150 3 0
2 81 153 150 6 0
3 76 152 150 8 0
4 75 152 150 10 0
5 64 152 150 12 0
6 43 150 150 12 0
7 18 148 150 10 2
8 26 149 150 9 1
9 10 147 150 6 3
10 12 147 150 3 3
11 65 152 150
12 68 152 150
13 69 152 150
NG) LORRY
1 80 153 150 3 0
2 81 153 150 6 0
3 76 152 150 8 0
4 75 152 150 10 0
5 64 152 150 12 0
6 43 150 150 12 0
7 18 148 150 10 0
8 26 149 150 9 0
9 10 147 150 6 0
10 12 147 150 3 0
11 65 152 150 5 0
12 68 152 150 7 0
13 69 152 150 9 0
CONTINUE…
…….
14 61 152 150 11 0
15 57 151 150 12 0
TOTAL 123 00
[1] Average numbers of scooters waiting= 123/15= 8.2per day

[2] Average number of empty spaces=0/day
Simulation of Investment problem
Example: The investment corporation wants to study the investment projects based on
three factors: market demand in units; price per unit minus cost peer unit and investment
required.These factors are felt to be independent of each other. In analysing a new
consumer product, the corporation the following probability distribution :
Annual demand Price minus cost per unit Investment required

Units Probability Rs. Probability Rs. Probability
20,000 0.05 3.00 0.10 17,50,000 0.25
25,000 0.10 5.00 0.20 20,00,000 0.50
30,000 0.20 7.00 0.40 25,00,000 0.25
35,000 0.30 9.00 0.20
40,000 0.20 10.00 0.10
45,000 0.10
50,000 0.05
CONTD…..
Using simulation process, repeat the trial 10 times, compute

the return on investment for each
trial taking these three factors into account. What is the most
likely return?
Solution:
Return(R) = (Price – Cost) * Number of units demanded /

Investment
Develop a cumulative probability distribution corresponding to each of the
three factors, an appropriate set of random numbers is assigned to represent
each of the three factors.
Annual demand Probability Cumulative probability Random number

20,000 0.05 0.05 00-04
25,000 0.10 0.15 05-14
30,000 0.20 0.35 15-34
35,000 0.30 0.65 35-64
40,000 0.20 0.85 65-84
45,000 0.10 0.95 85-94
50,000 0.05 1.00 95-99

Price minus cost per unit Probability Cumulative probability Random
Number
3.00 0.10 0.10 00-09
5.00 0.20 0.30 10-29
7.00 0.40 0.70 30-69
9.00 0.20 0.90 70-89
10.00 0.10 1.00 90-99

Investment required Probability Cumulative probability Random Number
17,50,000 0.25 0.25 00-24
20,00,000 0.50 0.75 25-74
25,00,000 0.25 1.00 75-99
Now the simulation worksheet is prepared for 10 trials. The simulated return(R) is also
calculated
by using the formula for R.
Trials Random number Simulated Random Simulated Random Simulated Simulated
for demand Demand Number for profit number Investment return(%)
(‘000) profit per unit for invest. (‘000)
1. 28 30 19
2. 57 35 07
3. 60 35 90
4. 17 30 02
5. 64 35 57
6. 20 30 28
7. 27 30 29
8. 58 35 83
9. 61 35 58
10. 30 30 41
The highest likely return is 20% which corresponds to annual demand of 35,000 units yielding a
profit of
Rs.10 per unit and investment required is Rs. 17,50,000.
1. 28 30 19 5.00
2. 57 35 07 3.00
3. 60 35 90 10.00
4. 17 30 02 3.00
5. 64 35 57 7.00
6. 20 30 28 5.00
7. 27 30 29 5.00
8. 58 35 83 9.00
9. 61 35 58 7.00
10. 30 30 41 7.00
profit of
1. 28 30 19 5.00 18
2. 57 35 07 3.00 61
3. 60 35 90 10.00 16
4. 17 30 02 3.00 71
5. 64 35 57 7.00 43
6. 20 30 28 5.00 68
7. 27 30 29 5.00 47
8. 58 35 83 9.00 24
9. 61 35 58 7.00 19
10. 30 30 41 7.00 97
profit of
1. 28 30 19 5.00 18 1750
2. 57 35 07 3.00 61 2000
3. 60 35 90 10.00 16 1750
4. 17 30 02 3.00 71 2000
5. 64 35 57 7.00 43 2000
6. 20 30 28 5.00 68 2000
7. 27 30 29 5.00 47 2000
8. 58 35 83 9.00 24 1750
9. 61 35 58 7.00 19 1750
10. 30 30 41 7.00 97 2500
profit of
1. 28 30 19 5.00 18 1750 8.57

2. 57 35 07 3.00 61 2000 5.25
3. 60 35 90 10.00 16 1750 20.00
4. 17 30 02 3.00 71 2000 4.50
5. 64 35 57 7.00 43 2000 12.25
6. 20 30 28 5.00 68 2000 7.50
7. 27 30 29 5.00 47 2000 7.50
8. 58 35 83 9.00 24 1750 18.00
9. 61 35 58 7.00 19 1750 14.00
10. 30 30 41 7.00 97 2500 8.40
profit of
Simulation and Inventory Control System
•Demand and lead time are uncertain and hence simulation is

widely used to solve the inventory problems.
•The distribution of demand during the lead time can be obtained

from an empirical analysis of past data or by computer simulation
using random numbers.
•The cumulative probability distribution of demand during the

lead time is used as a basis to determine the annual inventory
costs and stock-out costs for different levels of safety stock.
• The management can experiment the effect of various
inventory policies by using simulation ans finally select
an optimum inventory policy.
• The main objective of using simulation is to get

optimum results by way of minimum annual ordering
cost, holding cost, stock-out cost and ultimately total
inventory cost.
Ques- The distribution of demand during the lead time,the
distribution of the lead time are set out in tables 1 and 2
Table 1.distribution of demand during lead time
Quantity demanded during lead time probability
0 0.10
1 0.45
2 0.30
3 0.15
Table2.distribution of lead time

Lead time (weeks) probability
2 0.20
3 0.65
4 0.15
• Compute the annual inventory cost if the
management wants to re-order 12 units each time
when the quantity on hand is 6 units.moreover
supplier is in a position to execute all the orders.cost
of ordering per order is rs.120.the cost of holding
inventory in stock units is rs.5 per unit per week.the
stock out cost is rs.75 per unit.show simulation of 15
weeks.opening stock is 10 units.
• Random numbers for demand are

49,67,6,30,95,1,10,70,80,66,69,76,86,56,84
• Random numbers for lead time are 84,79,56,69,65
• Solution
Table 1.
Demand Cumulative probability Random nos.assigned
0 0.10 00 to 09
1 0.55 10 to 54
2 0.85 55 to 84
3 1.00 85 to 99
Table 2.
Lead time Cumulative probability Random nos.assigned
2 0.20 00 to 19
3 0.85 20 to 84
4 1.00 85 to 99
weeks Stock Rando Quantit Quantit Stock Inven- quantit costs Ran- lead time
on hand m no. y y on hand tory y dom period
begin- demand receive end of carry- no.
ning of ed d the ing cost
the week
weeks
1 10 49 1 - 9 45
2 9 67 2 - 7 35
3 7 06 0 - 7 35
4 7 30 1 - 6 30
5 6 95 3 - 3 15 84 3
6 3 01 0 - 3 15
7 3 10 1 - 2 10
8 2 70 2 12 12 60
week Stock Rand Quan Quan Stock Inven quan costs Ran- lead
s on om tity tity on -tory tity dom time
hand no. dema receiv hand carry- no. perio
begin nded ed end ing d
-ning of the cost
of the week
week
s
9 12 80 2 - 10 50
10 10 66 2 - 8 40
11 8 69 2 - 6 30
12 6 76 2 - 4 20
13 4 86 3 - 1 5 79 3
14 1 56 2 - - - 1 75
15 - 84 2 12 10 50
Answer-
• inventory carrying cost=440
• ordering cost=240
• Stock out cost=75
• Total cost=735
Use of simulation in calculation
of profit and loss
QUES.
A company manufactures 30 units per day.The sale of these items
depends upon demand which has the following distribution.
Sales(Units) Probability
27 0.10
28 0.15
29 0.20
30 0.35
31 0.15
32 0.05
The production cost and sale price of each unit are Rs40 and Rs50,respectively.Any
unsold product is to be disposed of at a loss of Rs 15 per unit . There is a penalty of
Rs5 if the demand is not met . Using the following random numbers , estimate the
total profit /loss for the company for the next ten days.
10, 99, 65, 99, 95, 01, 79, 11, 16, 20
If the company decides to produce 29 units per day, what is the advantage or
disadvantage of the company?
SOL.
As a first step, random numbers 00-09 are allocated to various possible
sale values in proportion to the probabilities associated with them.
SALE(UNIT) PROBABILITY CUMULATIVE RANDOM
PROBABILTY NUMBER
INTERVAL
27 0.10 0.10 00-09
28 0.25 0.25 10-24
29 0.45 0.45 25-44
30 0.80 0.80 45-79
31 0.95 0.95 80-94
32 1.00 1.00 95-99
Now , we stimulate the demand for the next ten days using the given random numbers.
From the given information we have..
Profit per unit sold=Rs50-Rs40=Rs10
Loss per unit sold=Rs15
Penalty for refusing demand=Rs 5 per unit
Using these inputs,the profit /loss for the ten days is
calculated as given below,first when production is 30
units per day and ten when it is 29 units.
Day Random Estimated Profit/loss per day with production

number sales(units) 30 units 29 units
1 10 28 28*10-2*15=250
2 99 32
3 65 30
4 99 32
5 95 32
6 01 27
7 79 30
8 11 28
9 16 28
10 20 28
Using these inputs,the profit /loss for the ten days is calculated as
given below,first when production is 30 units per day and ten when it is
29 units.
It is evident that the total profit for ten days is Rs 2695 when 30units are
produced . Also,if the company decides to produce 29units per day , the total
profit works to be the same, as shown calculated in the last column of the
table.
1 10 28 28*10-2*15=250
2 99 32 30*10-2*5=290
3 65 30 30*10 =300
4 99 32 30*10-2*5=290
5 95 32 30*10-2*5=290
6 01 27 27*10-3*15=225
7 79 30 30*10 = 300
8 11 28 28*10-2*15=250
9 16 28 28*10-2*15=250
10 20 28 28*10-2*15=250
Total profit=2695
Using these inputs,the profit /loss for the ten days is calculated as
given below,first when production is 30 units per day and ten when it is
29 units.
It is evident that the total profit for ten days is Rs 2695 when 30units are
produced . Also,if the company decides to produce 29units per day , the total
profit works to be the same, as shown calculated in the last column of the
table.
1 10 28 28*10-2*15=250 28*10-1*15=265
2 99 32 30*10-2*5=290 29*10-3*5=275
3 65 30 30*10 =300 29*10-1*5=285
4 99 32 30*10-2*5=290 29*10-3*5=275
5 95 32 30*10-2*5=290 29*10-3*5=275
6 01 27 27*10-3*15=225 27*10-2*15=240
7 79 30 30*10 = 300 29*10-1*15=285
8 11 28 28*10-2*15=250 28*10-1*15=265
9 16 28 28*10-2*15=250 28*10-1*15=265
10 20 28 28*10-2*15=250 28*10-1*15=265
Total profit=2695 2695
SIMULATION IN QUEING
SYSTEM
Question
• Dr. Strong is a dentist who scheduled all her
patients for 30- minutes appointments. Some
of the patients take more or less than 30 mims
depending on all type of dental work to be
done. The following summary shows the
various categories of work, their probabilities
and the time actually needed to complete the
work
category Time required Probability of category
Filling 45 minutes 0.40

Crown 60 minutes 0.15
Cleaning 15 minutes 0.15
Extraction 45 minutes 0.10
Check up 15 minutes 0.20
Simulate the dentist’s clinic for 4 hours and determine

the average waiting time for the patients as well as the
idleness of the doctor. Assume that all the patients
show up at the clinic at exactly their scheduled arrival
time starting at 8 a.m. use the following random
numbers for handling the above problem
40, 82, 11, 34, 25, 66, 17, 79
CONT…
Category Time required Probability Cumulative Random
probability Number
intervals
Filling 45 m 0.40 0.40
Crown 60 m 0.15 0.55
Cleaning 15 m 0.15 0.70
Extraction 45 m 0.10 0.80
Check up 15 m 0.20 1.00
As a first step we determine random number intervals.
This is done below:
Category Time required Probability Cumulative Random

probability Number
intervals
Filling 45 m 0.40 0.40 00-39

Crown 60 m 0.15 0.55 40-54
Cleaning 15 m 0.15 0.70 55-69
Extraction 45 m 0.10 0.80 70-79
Check up 15 m 0.20 1.00 80-99
The simulation is shown in the table below. Each of the

patients is assumed to require service in accordance with the
random number associated with him/her. For example, the
first patient with random number 40 is assumed to need ‘
crown’, as the number falls in the group 40-54.
Simulation worksheet: dentist’s
clinic
Patien Arrival Random Service Service Waiting Idle time
t time numbers time --------------------------- time
needed Begins ends
1 8.00 am 40
2 8.30 am 82
3 9.00 am 11
4 9.30 am 34
5 10 am 25
6 10.30 am 66
7 11.00 am 17
8 11.30 am 79
clinic
needed Begins ends
1 8.00 am 40 60
2 8.30 am 82 15
3 9.00 am 11
4 9.30 am 34
5 10 am 25
6 10.30 am 66
7 11.00 am 17
8 11.30 am 79
clinic
needed Begins ends
1 8.00 am 40 60
2 8.30 am 82 15
3 9.00 am 11 45
4 9.30 am 34 45
5 10 am 25 45
6 10.30 am 66 15
7 11.00 am 17 45
8 11.30 am 79 45
clinic
needed Begins ends
1 8.00 am 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 am

2 8.30 am 82 15
3 9.00 am 11 45
4 9.30 am 34 45
5 10 am 25 45
6 10.30 am 66 15
7 11.00 am 17 45
8 11.30 am 79 45
clinic
needed Begins ends
1 8.00 am 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 am

2 8.30 am 82 15 9.00 am 9.15 am
3 9.00 am 11 45 9.15 am
4 9.30 am 34 45
5 10 am 25 45
6 10.30 am 66 15
7 11.00 am 17 45
8 11.30 am 79 45
clinic
needed Begins ends
1 8.00 am 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 am 0

2 8.30 am 82 15 9.00 am 9.15 am 30
3 9.00 am 11 45 9.15 am 10.00 am
4 9.30 am 34 45 10.00 am 10.45 am
5 10 am 25 45 10.45 am 11.30 am
6 10.30 am 66 15 11.30 am 11.45 am
7 11.00 am 17 45 11.45 pm 12.30 pm
8 11.30 am 79 45 12.30 pm 1.15 pm
clinic
needed Begins ends
1 8.00 am 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 am 0

2 8.30 am 82 15 9.00 am 9.15 am 30
3 9.00 am 11 45 9.15 am 10.00 am 15
4 9.30 am 34 45 10.00 am 10.45 am 30
5 10 am 25 45 10.45 am 11.30 am 45
6 10.30 am 66 15 11.30 am 11.45 am 60
7 11.00 am 17 45 11.45 pm 12.30 pm 45
8 11.30 am 79 45 12.30 pm 1.15 pm 60
clinic
needed Begins ends
1 8.00 am 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 am 0 0

2 8.30 am 82 15 9.00 am 9.15 am 30 0
3 9.00 am 11 45 9.15 am 10.00 am 15 0
4 9.30 am 34 45 10.00 am 10.45 am 30 0
5 10 am 25 45 10.45 am 11.30 am 45 0
6 10.30 am 66 15 11.30 am 11.45 am 60 0
7 11.00 am 17 45 11.45 pm 12.30 pm 45 0
8 11.30 am 79 45 12.30 pm 1.15 pm 60 0
From the table we get:
• Doctor’s idle time = nil

• Average waiting time of patients= 285/ 8
= 35.6 minutes
THANK YOU

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SIMULATION

1) Definition of problem and statement of objectives.

2) Construction of an appropriate model.

3) Experimentation with the model constructed.

4) Evaluation of the results of simulation.

• This technique is based upon probability

distribution and the use of random numbers.

• It is more popular in business applications due to its

ease of implementation and low costs.

• The chance element is very significant feature of

• Assign random numbers corresponding to the

• From the random number tables, chose a set of

• Choice of random numbers whether single digit,

Consider the following sequence of random

Event ( rain in Probability Cumulative Random

Day Random Event table

Thus the total rain during the period was 5 c.m

PRODUCTION PER DAY PROBABILITY

PRODUCTUON PER DAY PROBABILITY CUMULITIVE PROB RANDOM NUMB ASSIGNED

PRODUCTUON PER DAY PROBABILITY CUMULITIVE PROB RANDOM NUMB ASSIGNED

PRODUCTUON PER DAY PROBABILITY CUMULITIVE PROB RANDOM NUMB ASSIGNED

[1] Average numbers of scooters waiting= 123/15= 8.2per day

Annual demand Price minus cost per unit Investment required

25,000 0.10 5.00 0.20 20,00,000 0.50

30,000 0.20 7.00 0.40 25,00,000 0.25

35,000 0.30 9.00 0.20

40,000 0.20 10.00 0.10

Using simulation process, repeat the trial 10 times, compute

Return(R) = (Price – Cost) * Number of units demanded /

Annual demand Probability Cumulative probability Random number

25,000 0.10 0.15 05-14

30,000 0.20 0.35 15-34

35,000 0.30 0.65 35-64

40,000 0.20 0.85 65-84

45,000 0.10 0.95 85-94

50,000 0.05 1.00 95-99

3.00 0.10 0.10 00-09

5.00 0.20 0.30 10-29

7.00 0.40 0.70 30-69

9.00 0.20 0.90 70-89

10.00 0.10 1.00 90-99

17,50,000 0.25 0.25 00-24

20,00,000 0.50 0.75 25-74

25,00,000 0.25 1.00 75-99

1. 28 30 19 5.00 18 1750 8.57

•Demand and lead time are uncertain and hence simulation is

•The distribution of demand during the lead time can be obtained

•The cumulative probability distribution of demand during the

• The main objective of using simulation is to get

Table2.distribution of lead time

• Random numbers for demand are

Day Random Estimated Profit/loss per day with production

Filling 45 minutes 0.40

Simulate the dentist’s clinic for 4 hours and determine

Category Time required Probability Cumulative Random

Filling 45 m 0.40 0.40 00-39

The simulation is shown in the table below. Each of the

1 8.00 am 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 am

1 8.00 am 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 am

1 8.00 am 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 am 0