Simulation Replacement

Simulation
• Simplified representation of real life situation

• Help to understand a problem and find the solution.
• Involves Making a Model
• Applying different values
Analyze the result so obtained
Solve the Problem

• The condition or the situation where it is not possible to
handle through mathematically or analytically
• So it is to simulate(imitate) the system and study its behaviour
• It describes how the system is likely to behave under different
sets of conditions postulated and allow the decision maker to
take appropriate decision.
• Testing of any product (Parts of Car)
• Cost EFFECTIVE
Process Of Simulation
• Definition of problem and statement of the objective

• Construction of an appropriate Model
• Experiments with the Model constructed
• Evaluations of the results of simulation
Basic Requirement
• I Model
• II Some Mechanism to Simulate
• Used By
automobiles industries
Luxurious product with high quality and performance
Electronic Industry
Power plants , Turbines
Food processing industry
Steps
• Establishing Probability Distribution
• Cumulative Probability Distribution
• Setting Random Number Interval
• Generating Random Numbers
How to generate the random numbers
Apparently Random number (pseudo random numbers) are generated by some
method such as :
o Spinning arrow method, roulette wheel,Tossing dice
o Mid square Method
o RAND
o Monte Carlo
A Bakery keeps a record of the sale of the number of
cakes of a certain type . Information relating to 200
days
demand No. of days Demand Probability
5 4 5 0.02
6 10 6 0.05
7 16 7 0.08
8 50 8 0.25
9 62 9 0.31
10 38 10 0.19
11 12 11 0.06
12 8 12 0.04
Total 200 Total 1
Demand Probability Cumulative Random Day Random Demand
probability number
Interval Numbers (cakes)
1 61 9
5 0.02 0.02 00-01
2 74 10
6 0.05 0.07 02-06
3 24 8
7 0.08 0.15 07-14 4 03 6
8 0.25 0.40 15-39 5 59 9
9 0.31 0.71 40-70 6 16 8
7 84 10
10 0.19 0.90 71-89
8 92 11
11 0.06 0.96 90-95
9 52 9
12 0.04 1.00 96-99
10 07 7
A Baker sells items .Past data of the demand per week
(in 100 kg)with frequency is given below:
Demand/week 0 5 10 15 20 25
Frequency 2 11 8 21 5 3
• Using the sequence of random Variables , find the demand for next 1
• weeks. Also find the average demand per week.
35,52,35,90,13,23,73,34,57,83,94,56,67,66,60
A Hairstylist schedules his clients for 30 minutes appointments everyday. Some
clients take more or less than 30 minutes,depending on the service..Following is the
data.
Category of service Time required Probability

(in min)
Hair color 45 0.40
Hair Spa 60 0. 15
Hair Cut 15 0.15
Head massage 45 0.10
Hair styling 15 0.20
Client time RN Simulation Service Service Waiting Idle time
Time (in begins at ends at time (in
min) min)
1 8:00 am 40 60 8:00 am 9:00am 0 0
2 8:30 am 82 15 9:00am 9:15am 30 0
3 9:00 am 11 45 9:15am 10:00am 15 0
4 9:30 am 34 45 10:00am 10:45am 30 0
5 10:00 am 25 45 10:45am 11:30am 45 0
6 10:30 am 66 15 11:30am 11:45am 60 0
7 11:00 am 17 45 11:45am 12:30pm 45 0
8 11:30 am 79 45 12:30pm 1:00pm 60 0
Average waiting time=285/8=35.625 minutes

Replacement Theory
• A firm is using a machine whose purchase price is ₹13000. The
installation charges amount to ₹3600 and the machine has scrap value
only ₹1600 because the firm has a monopoly of this type of work. The
maintenance cost in various years is given in the following table.
Year
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Cost (₹)
250 750 1000 1500 2100 2900 4000 4800 6000
• The firm wants to determine after how many years the machine should
be replaced on economic considerations, assuming that the machine
replacement can be done only at the year ends.
Total cost
Cumulative Owing cost (Maintenance+ A(n)=
Maintenence
Year (n) maintenance
Costs C-S Owning cost T(n)/n
cost
T(n)
1 250 250 15000 15250 15250
2 750 1000 15000 16000 8000
3 1000 2000 15000 17000 5667
4 1500 3500 15000 18500 4625
5 2100 5600 15000 20600 4120
6 2900 8500 15000 23500 3917*
7 4000 12500 15000 27500 3929
8 4800 17300 15000 32300 4038
9 6000 23300 15000 38300 4256
C=13000+3600
S=1600
The Machine can be replaced at the end of every 6th year
The Simple Engineering Company has machine whose purchase price is
₹80000. The expected maintenance costs and resale price in different years as:
After what time interval, in your opinion, should the machine be replaced?
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Maintenance Cost (₹) 1000 1200 1600 2400 3000 3900 5000
Resale Value (₹) 75 72 70 65 58 50 45
Year Costs Cumm S C-S T(n) A(n)

1 1000 1000 75000 5000 6000 6000
2 1200 2200 72000 8000 10200 5100
3 1600 3800 70000 10000 13800 4600*
4 2400 6200 65000 15000 21200 5300
5 3000 9200 58000 22000 31200 6240
6 3900 13100 50000 30000 43100 7183
7 5000 18100 45000 35000 53100 7586
C= 80000
At the end of 3rd year , it should be replaced.
An Electro-mechanical equipment has a purchase price of 7000. Its running costs per year and resale
values are given here:
At which year is the replacement due?
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Running cost (₹) 2000 210 2300 2600 3000 3500 4100 4600
0
Resale Value (₹) 4000 300 2200 1600 1400 700 700 700
0
Year Costs Cumm S C-S T(n) A(n)
1 2000 2000 4000 3000 5000 5000
2 2100 4100 3000 4000 8100 4050
3 2300 6400 2200 4800 11200 3733
4 2600 9000 1600 5400 14400 3600
5 3000 12000 1400 5600 17600 3520*
6 3500 15500 700 6300 21800 3633
7 4100 19600 700 6300 25900 3700
8 4600 24200 700 6300 30500 3813
C= 7000

Simulation Replacement

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Simulation Replacement

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Simulation

• Simplified representation of real life situation

• Applying different values

Analyze the result so obtained

Solve the Problem

• Definition of problem and statement of the objective

8 0.25 0.40 15-39 5 59 9

9 0.31 0.71 40-70 6 16 8

Category of service Time required Probability

Average waiting time=285/8=35.625 minutes

Year Costs Cumm S C-S T(n) A(n)

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