The International Financial System: All Rights Reserved

CHAPTER 16
The
International
Financial
System
Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall.

All rights reserved.
Chapter Preview
The international financial system has grown

in importance as the U.S. economy has
become more interdependent with the
economies of the rest of the world. In this
chapter, we examine the differences between
fixed and managed exchange rate systems.
© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-2

Chapter Preview
We also look at the controversial role of capital
controls and the IMF in the international setting.
Topics include:
Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
Balance of Payments
Exchange Rates Regimes in the International
Financial System
Capital Controls
The Role of the IMF

Intervention in the Foreign
Exchange Market
 Foreign exchange markets are not free of

government intervention.
 Foreign exchange interventions occur
when central banks engage in international
transactions to influence exchange rates.

Intervention in the Foreign Exchange
Market: the Money Supply
 The first step is to understand the impact on

the monetary base and the money supply
when a central bank intervenes in the
foreign exchange market.
 International reserves refers to a central
bank’s holdings in a foreign currency.

 Suppose the Fed sells $1 billion in a foreign currency in

exchange for $1 billion in U.S. currency.
Federal Reserve System

Assets Liabilities
Foreign –1 billion Currency or –1 billion
Assets Reserves
(international (Monetary
reserves) Base)
 Results:
─ Fed holding in international reserves falls by 1 billion.
─ Currency in circulation falls by 1 billion.

 Suppose the Fed sells $1 billion in a foreign

currency in exchange for a check written on
a domestic bank.
Assets Liabilities
Foreign –1 billion Deposits with –1 billion
Assets the Fed
(international (reserves)
reserves)

In either case, we draw the same conclusion:

a central bank’s purchase of domestic
currency and corresponding sale of a foreign
currency leads to an equal decline in its
international reserves and the monetary
base.

Obviously, the opposite is true if the

transaction reversed: a central bank’s sale of
domestic currency and corresponding
purchase of a foreign currency leads to an
equal increase in its international reserves
and the monetary base.

Inside the Fed
Before we move on, it’s worth spending a

moment to talk about the actual process of
intervention.
First, the U.S. Treasury and the Fed’s
FOMC decide to intervene. This occurs
through a variety of conference calls during
the day between the Treasury, the BOG, and
the New York Fed.

Inside the Fed
 If an intervention is called for, the manager of
the desk at the New York Fed has his traders
carry-out the prescribed purchase or sale of
currency on behalf of the Treasury.
 In the interim, the staff of the FOMC
continues to develop reports and other
information about developments in domestic
and foreign markets.

 Once we understand the impact of

purchases or sales, the Fed still has a
decision to make.
 A central bank, knowing these results, can
engage in one of two types of foreign
exchange interventions:
─ Unsterilized
─ Sterilized

Market: Unsterilized Intervention
 Unsterilized:
Assets Liabilities
Foreign +1 billion Currency or +1 billion
Assets Reserves
(international (Monetary
reserves) Base)
 Results:
─ International reserves, 1 billion
─ Monetary base, 1 billion
─ The analysis is in Figure 16.1, Et 

Market: Unsterilized Intervention
1. Initially, the
purchase of dollars
decreases the
money supply, and
demand shifts from
D1 to D2.
2. The equilibrium
exchange rate rises
from E1 to E2 as the
expected return on
dollar assets rises.

Market: Sterilized Intervention
 Sterilized:
Assets Liabilities
(Foreign Assets) (Monetary Base)

International –1 billion Curreny or 0
Reserves Reserves
Government +1 billion
Bonds
 Results:
─ International reserves, 1 billion
─ Monetary base unchanged
─ Et unchanged: no shift in demand

Balance of Payments
 This is the method for measuring the effects

of international financial transactions on the
economy.
 The balance of payments is a booking
system for recording all receipts and
payments that have a direct bearing on the
movement of funds between nations.

Balance of Payments
 The current account shows international

transactions that involve currently produced
goods and services.
 The trade balance is part of this account,
and shows the difference between exports
and imports

Balance of Payments
 The capital account shows the net

receipts from capital transactions. Capital
flows into a country are recorded as
receipts, whereas outflows are registered
as payments

Balance of Payments
Given these definitions, the following

equation holds:
Current Account  Capital Account 

Net Change in Governmental International Reserves

Balance of Payments
The rapid growth in the U.S. current account

deficit in recent years, which is now close to
$1 trillion, has raised serious concerns about
the impact (negative) on the U.S. economy.
We’ll explore this briefly.

Global: Economist Concerns
about the Current Account Deficit
The deficit (about $250b in 2009) concerns

economists for several reasons:
1. Indicates that at the current exchange rate,
foreigners demand fewer U.S. exports than
American’s demand imports.
2. Foreigners’ claims on U.S. assets are
growing, possibly leading to a decreased
demand for dollars over time.

Exchange Rate Regimes in the
International Financial System
 There are two basic types of exchange rate

regimes in the international financial
system:
─ Fixed exchange rate regime
─ Floating exchange rate regime

Exchange Rate Regimes in the International
Financial System: Fixed Exchange Rate
 In a fixed exchange rate regime, the

values of currencies are kept pegged
relative to one currency so that exchange
rates are fixed.
 The currency against which the others are
pegged is known as the anchor currency.

Financial System: Floating Exchange Rate
 In a floating exchange rate regime, the

values of currencies are allowed to fluctuate
against one another.
 When countries attempt to influence
exchange rates via buying and selling
currencies, the regime is referred to as a
managed float regime (or a dirty float).

Fixed Exchange Rate Systems
 Bretton Woods
1. Created the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which
sets rules and provides loans to deficit countries
2. Setup the International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (World Bank), which provides loans to
developing countries

 Bretton Woods
3. The U.S. emerged from WWII as the world’s largest
economic power. The U.S. dollar was called the
reserve currency, meaning it was used by other
countries to denominate the assets they held in
international reserves.
4. The system was abandoned in 1971.
5. Even post-1971, the dollar was the “reserve currency”
in which most international financial transactions were
conducted. But, as we will see next, the euro has
challenged that status.

Euro’s Challenge to the
US dollar
With the introduction of the euro in 1999, the

dollar is losing position as the reserve currency.
With the euro integrating European finance, it
is more likely that international transactions will
use the euro. However, the European Union
must start to function as a cohesive political
entity for the euro to gain further ground –
which is unlikely in the near future.

Now we turn to how fixed exchange rate

systems work. The next slide shows this
using the supply and demand analysis of the
foreign exchange market that we examined in
previous chapters.

Fixed Exchange Rate Systems:
How they work
 There are essentially two situations where a

central bank will act in the foreign exchange
market. There are when the domestic
currency is either:
─ Overvalued
─ Undervalued

How they work
 When the domestic currency is overvalued, the

central bank must purchase domestic currency to
keep the exchange rate fixed. As a result, the
central bank loses international reserves.
 When the domestic currency is undervalued, the
central bank must sell domestic currency to keep
the exchange rate fixed. As a result, the central
bank gains international reserves.

How they work
 These results can be seen in the figure on the

next slide. Part (a) shows the impact of central
bank actions when the domestic currency is
overvalued. Part (b) shows the impact when the
domestic currency is undervalued.

Intervention in a Fixed
Exchange Rate System

Analysis of Figure 16.2: Intervention
in a Fixed Exchange Rate System
 In panel a, exchange rate at Epar is

over-valued.
─ Central bank buys domestic currency to shift
demand curve to D2
 In panel b, exchange rate at Epar is

under-valued.
─ Central bank sells domestic currency to shift
demand curve to D2

How they work
 Devaluation can occur when the domestic currency
is overvalued. Eventually, the central bank may run
out of international reserves, eliminating its ability to
prevent the domestic currency from depreciating.
 Revaluation will occur when the central bank
decides to stop intervening when its domestic
currency is undervalued. Rather than acquiring
international reserves, it lets the par value of the
exchange rate reset to a higher level.

How they work
 If there is perfect capital mobility, then a sterilized
exchange rate intervention keep the exchange
rate at Epar.
 An important implication—if a country ties its
exchange rate to an anchor currency of a larger
country, it loses control of its monetary policy.
 However, this does force the more disciplined
policies of the larger country on the smaller
country—usually ensuring a low inflation rate.

How they work
 Currency boards are the extreme example
of the last point. With a currency board, the
domestic currency is backed 100% by a
foreign currency. These have been
established in Hong Kong, Argentina, and
Estonia, to name a few. The most extreme
example is dollarization, where a country
adopts the currency of a foreign country.

Argentina’s Currency Board
 Adopted in 1991 to end a long history of
monetary instability.
 Peso/dollar exchange rate fixed, and rate
guaranteed by the central bank.
 Early success was stifled by a mass
exchange of pesos for dollars—real GDP
shrunk and unemployment rose to 15% in
1995.
Argentina’s Currency Board
 Central bank could do nothing to control
this—exchange rate was fixed. But world
organizations (World Bank, IMF) helped
out.
 Another recession in 1999 eventually lead
to the collapse of the currency board in
2002. The peso depreciated by 70%, and a
financial crisis ensued.

Dollarization
 Panama has been dollarized since its inception,
and El Salvador and Ecuador have recently
adopted dollarization.
 Avoids a central bank creating inflation, and
eliminates speculative attacks on a currency.
 However, a country cannot pursue its own
monetary policy, and it loses the revenue a
government receives by issuing currency
(known as seigniorage).
Foreign Exchange Crisis
of September 1992
 Following the reunification of Germany in

October 1990, the German central bank
faced inflationary pressure. To control
monetary growth, the central bank raised
interest rates to double-digits.
 The consequences are detailed on the next
slide.

Exchange Rate Crisis
of September 1992
1. The increase in German
interest rates lowered
expected returns on
British pounds, shifting
demand from D1 to D2.
2. The equilibrium rate was
below the lower exchange
rate limit for the time.
3. Required England pursue
a contraction or Germany
to lower rates. Neither
would do this.
4. Demand shifted to D3—a
huge sell-off of pounds!

The Practicing Manager:
Profiting from a FX Crisis
 September 1992, £ overvalued
 Once traders know central banks can’t
intervene enough, £ only head one direction,

─ One-sided bet, “heads I win, tails I win”
─ Traders sell £, buy DM
─ £  10% after September 16
• Citibank makes $200 million
• Soros makes $1 billion

Case: Recent Foreign
Exchange Crisis
 Emerging markets have experienced recent
foreign exchange crisis. These include Mexico
(1994), East Asia (1997), Brazil (1999), and
Argentina (2001).
 In each case, demand shifted to the left, and
the resulting equilibrium was below the pegged
value for the currency. Central banks needed to
sell dollars and buy domestic currency.

Case: Recent Foreign
Exchange Crisis
 At first successful, each central bank was
later faced with further speculative attacks.
Demand curve moved further to the left!
 The central bank was eventually forced to
give up its defense and let the domestic
currency depreciate.

Case: How China Accumulated over
$2 trillion in International Reserves
 In 1994, China pegged the yuan to the dollar.

 High productivity and low inflation rate lead
to an increase in value of the yuan. Expected
return for yuan assets increased, and
demand shifted to the right.
 To keep the yuan from appreciating, the
central bank purchased dollars.

 This has created problems for Chinese

authorities.
─ They now own a lot of low-return U.S. assets
─ Chinese goods have become so cheap that
countries are threatening to enact trade
barriers.
─ Policy may lead to high inflation in the future.

 This has created problems for Chinese

authorities.
─ In July 2005, Chinese officials did let the yuan
rise 2.1%
─ Despite efforts to avoid a fixed peg, China
re-imposed the peg in 2008 during the global
financial crisis. But then dropped it in 2010.

 Why did they do this, despite the problems?

─ Exports hum under the policy – the price of
their exports are low in international markets
─ Gives China assets to fend off a yuan
speculative attack in the future

Financial System: Managed Float
 Central banks are reluctant to give up their

ability to intervene in foreign exchange
markets.
 Limiting changes in exchange rates makes
it easier for firms and individual to plan
purchases/sales in the international
marketplace.

Financial System: Managed Float
 Countries with a trade surplus are reluctant

to allow their currencies appreciate since it
hurts domestic sales.
 On the other hand, countries with a trade
deficit do not want to see their currency
lose value since it makes foreign goods
more expensive.

Capital Controls
 Control on Capital Outflows
─ Controls on outflows are unlikely to work
─ Seldom effective during a crisis
─ May actually increase the problem by leading
to an increase in capital flight
─ Controls often lead to corruption
─ May lull government authorities into thinking
that they don’t need to make financial system
reforms.

Capital Controls
 Controls on Capital Inflows
─ Somewhat supported for its ability to reduce the
likelihood of a crisis
─ May block productive resources from entering a
country
─ Can lead to corruption
─ However, may be a good method for controlling
risk-taking on the part of financial institutions

The Role of the IMF
1. There is a need for international lender of

last resort (ILLR) and IMF has played
this role
2. ILLR creates moral hazard problem
3. IMF needs to limit moral hazard
─ Lend only to countries with good bank
supervision
4. Need to do ILLR role fast and infrequently
The Role of the IMF:
How Should It Operate?
1. Make a clear statement that it will not lend

unless needed reforms are enacted.
2. Tight macro-policies give appearance of
“austerity programs” labeled as anti-
growth. Should focus on micro-fixes.
3. Needs to act quickly when needed.

Chapter Summary
 Intervention in the Foreign Exchange
Market: we examined both unsterilized and
sterilized interventions and the impact each
has on the domestic financial system.
 Balance of Payments: the bookkeeping
system for funds moving between nations
was explored.

Chapter Summary (cont.)
 Exchange Rates Regimes in the
International Financial System: we
examined fixed, managed fixed, and
floating regimes, and the impact each has
on the financial system.
 Capital Controls: controls on either inflows
and outflows are difficult to justify given the
negative aspects of either set of controls.

Chapter Summary (cont.)
 The Role of the IMF: the debate on the
need and role of the IMF remains a hotly
debated topic.

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CHAPTER 16

Copyright © 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall.

The international financial system has grown

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-2

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-3

 Foreign exchange markets are not free of

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-4

 The first step is to understand the impact on

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-5

 Suppose the Fed sells $1 billion in a foreign currency in

Federal Reserve System

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-6

 Suppose the Fed sells $1 billion in a foreign

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-7

In either case, we draw the same conclusion:

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-8

Obviously, the opposite is true if the

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-9

Before we move on, it’s worth spending a

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-10

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-11

 Once we understand the impact of

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-12

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-13

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-14

(Foreign Assets) (Monetary Base)

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-15

 This is the method for measuring the effects

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-16

 The current account shows international

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-17

 The capital account shows the net

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-18

Given these definitions, the following

Current Account  Capital Account 

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-19

The rapid growth in the U.S. current account

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-20

The deficit (about $250b in 2009) concerns

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-21

 There are two basic types of exchange rate

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-22

 In a fixed exchange rate regime, the

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-23

 In a floating exchange rate regime, the

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-24

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-25

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-26

With the introduction of the euro in 1999, the

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-27

Now we turn to how fixed exchange rate

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-28

 There are essentially two situations where a

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-29

 When the domestic currency is overvalued, the

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-30

 These results can be seen in the figure on the

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-31

© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 16-32