HYPOTHESIS TESTS &

CONTROL CHARTS

By S.G.M.
 Testing Hypothesis
 The assumption wish to test is called Null Hypothesis---Ho
If our sample result fail to support the Null hypothesis ,we must
conclude that something else is true
 Whenever we reject the hypothesis the conclusion we do accept is

called the alternative hypothesis and is symbolised as H1.

ex; Ho:µ=200 — The null hypothesis is that population mean is equal to 200
We will consider the three possible alternative hypothesis:
H1:µ ≠ 200= The alternative hypothesis is that population mean is not equal to 200
H1:µ > 200= The alternative hypothesis is that population mean is greater than 200
H1:µ < 200= The alternative hypothesis is that population mean is less than 200
 Null Hypothesis Alternative Hypothesis
(H0) is true (H1) is true
He truly is not guilty He truly is guilty

Accept Null Hypothesis Right decision Wrong decision

Type II Error

Reject Null Hypothesis Wrong decision Right decision

Type I Error
α β

Purpose of Hypothesis testing is not to question the computed value of the sample
statistic but to make a judgement about the difference between that sample
statistic and hypothesized population parameter.
 Interpreting the significance level
 the significance level is the criterion used for rejecting the null
hypothesis
 The significance level of a statistical hypothesis test is a fixed
probability of wrongly rejecting the null hypothesis H0, if it is in fact
true.
 It is the probability of a type I error and is set by the investigator in
relation to the consequences of such an error. That is, we want to make
the significance level as small as possible in order to protect the null
hypothesis and to prevent, as far as possible, the investigator from
inadvertently making false claims.
 The significance level is usually denoted by α

 Significance Level = P(type I error) = α

 Usually, the significance level is chosen to be 0.05 (or equivalently, 5%).

Power of a statistical hypothesis
 The power of a statistical hypothesis test measures the test's
ability to reject the null hypothesis when it is actually false -
that is, to make a correct decision.
 In other words, the power of a hypothesis test is the
probability of not committing a type II error. It is calculated
by subtracting the probability of a type II error from 1, usually
expressed as:
Power = 1 - P(type II error) = α

 The maximum power a test can have is 1, the minimum is 0.

Ideally we want a test to have high power, close to 1.
One-sided Test
 A one-sided test is a statistical hypothesis test in which the values for
which we can reject the null hypothesis, H0 are located entirely in
one tail of the probability distribution.

 In other words, the critical region for a one-sided test is the set of
values less than the critical value of the test, or the set of values
greater than the critical value of the test.

 A one-sided test is also referred to as a one-tailed test of significance.

 The choice between a one-sided and a two-sided test is determined by

the purpose of the investigation or prior reasons for using a one-sided
test.
 Example
 Suppose we wanted to test a manufacturers claim that there are, on average, 50
matches in a box. We could set up the following hypothesis
 H0: µ = 50,
against
 H1: µ < 50 or H1: µ > 50

 Either of these two alternative hypotheses would lead to a one-sided test.

Presumably, we would want to test the null hypothesis against the first alternative
hypothesis since it would be useful to know if there is likely to be less than 50
matches, on average, in a box (no one would complain if they get the correct number
of matches in a box or more).
 Yet another alternative hypothesis could be tested against the same null, leading this
time to a two-sided test:
 H0: µ = 50,
against
 H1: µ not equal to 50
 Here, nothing specific can be said about the average number of matches in a box;
only that, if we could reject the null hypothesis in our test, we would know that the
average number of matches in a box is likely to be less than or greater than 50.
Two-Sided Test
 A two-sided test is a statistical hypothesis test in which the values for
which we can reject the null hypothesis, H0 are located in both tails of the
probability distribution.

 In other words, the critical region for a two-sided test is the set of values
less than a first critical value of the test and the set of values greater than a
second critical value of the test.

 A two-sided test is also referred to as a two-tailed test of significance.

 The choice between a one-sided test and a two-sided test is determined by

the purpose of the investigation or prior reasons for using a one-sided test.
Example
 Suppose we wanted to test a manufacturers claim that there are, on average, 50
matches in a box. We could set up the following hypothesis
 H0: µ = 50,
against
 H1: µ < 50 or H1: µ > 50

 Either of these two alternative hypothesis would lead to a one-sided test.

Presumably, we would want to test the null hypothesis against the first alternative
hypothesis since it would be useful to know if there is likely to be less than 50
matches, on average, in a box (no one would complain if they get the correct
number of matches in a box or more).
 Yet another alternative hypothesis could be tested against the same null, leading
this time to a two-sided test:
H0: µ = 50,
against
 H1: µ not equal to 50

 Here, nothing specific can be said about the average number of matches in a box;
only that, if we could reject the null hypothesis in our test, we would know that the
average number of matches in a box is likely to be less than or greater than 50.
 Stats: Type of Tests
how to determine if the test is a left tail, right tail, or two-tail test.
Left Tailed Test
H1: parameter < value
Notice the inequality points to the left
Decision Rule: Reject H0 if t.s. < c.v.

Right Tailed Test

H1: parameter > value
Notice the inequality points to the right
Decision Rule: Reject H0 if t.s. > c.v.

Two Tailed Test

H1: parameter not equal value
Another way to write not equal is < or >
Notice the inequality points to both sides
Decision Rule: Reject Ho if t.s. < c.v. (left) or t.s. > c.v.
(right)
Reject Ho if the test statistic falls in the critical region
 T-test-1908 by William Sealy Gosset

 The t-test (or student's t-test) gives an indication of the separateness of

two sets of measurements, and is thus used to check whether two sets of
measures are essentially different.
 The t-test assumes:
 A normal distribution (parametric data)
 Underlying variances are equal
 It is used when there is random assignment and only two sets of
measurement to compare.
 t = experimental effect OR t = difference between group means
variability standard error of difference between
group means
Z-test
 The Z-test compares sample and population means to
determine if there is a significant difference.
 It requires a simple random sample from a population
with a Normal distribution and where the mean is
known.
Z= Sample mean-population mean
standard error of the mean
 The z value is then looked up in a z-table. A negative z value
means it is below the population mean (the sign is ignored in the
table).
 F-Test---------Ronald A. Fisher
 An F-test is any statistical test in which the test
statistic has an F-distribution under the null
hypothesis.
 It is most often used when comparing statistical
models that have been fit to a data set, in order to
identify the model that best fits the population from
which the data were sampled.
 Exact F-tests mainly arise when the models have been
fit to the data using least squares.
OR
F-test
Since F is formed by chi-square, many of the chi-
square properties carry over to the F distribution.
 The F-values are all non-negative
 The distribution is non-symmetric
 The mean is approximately 1
 There are two independent degrees of freedom, one for
the numerator, and one for the denominator.
 There are many different F distributions, one for each
pair of degrees of freedom.
 ANOVA-(t-test problems are solved)

 Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA) overcomes these

problems by using a single test to detect significant
differences between the treatments as a whole.
(A significant problem with the t-test is that we typically accept significance
with each t-test of 95% (alpha=0.05). For multiple tests these accumulate and
hence reduce the validity of the results.)
 ANOVA assumes parametric data.
 Types of ANOVA 'One way' means one independent variable.
 'Two way' means two independent variables.
Chi-square test
 measures the alignment between two sets of frequency measures. These must
be categorical counts and Chi-square is reported in the following form:

Chi-squared, c2 = ∑( (observed - expected)2 / expected)

c2 = SUM( (fo - fe)2 / fe )

...where fo is the observed frequency and fe is the expected frequency.

c2 (3, N = 125) = 10.2, p = .012

Where:
 3 - the degrees of freedom
 125 - subjects in the sample
 10.2 - the c2 test statistic
 .012 - the probability of the null hypothesis being true ot percentages or ratios measures
Goodness of fit-0.05, 0.01 or 0.001
 A common use is to assess whether a measured/observed
set of measures follows an expected pattern.

 The expected frequency may be determined from prior

knowledge (such as a previous year's exam results) or by
calculation of an average from the given data.

 The null hypothesis, H0 is that the two sets of measures

are not significantly different.
Independence-0.95 or 0.99
 The chi-square test can be used in the reverse manner to goodness
of fit. If the two sets of measures are compared, then just as you
can show they align, you can also determine if they do not align.

 The null hypothesis here is that the two sets of measures are
similar.

 The main difference in goodness-of-fit vs. independence

assessments is in the use of the Chi Square table. For goodness of
fit, attention is on 0.05, 0.01 or 0.001 figures. For independence, it
is on 0.95 or 0.99 figures (this is why the table has two ends to it).
Control charts
X-bar chart to control the mean value of a
variable
R chart the sample ranges are plotted in
order to control the variability of a
variable
S chart the sample standard deviations are
plotted in order to control the
variability of a variable
U-chart we plot the rate of defectives
Np-chart we plot the number of defectives
P-chart we plot the percent of defectives
 ATTRIBUTE DATA VARIABLE DATA

 Data that represents  Data that contains a

the absence or range of quantities.
presence of Most measurements
characteristics. yield variable data.
X-Chart
 A centre line
 UCL
 LCL
 + 3sigma - control limits should contain most of the
observation
R-chart
 The control chart that tracks sample ranges over
time.
 An R chart is used with variable data.
P-chart
 The control chart that tracks the percentage of
nonconforming items.
 A P chart is used with attribute data.
Geared up…....