RISE OF CHINA AS A

MAJOR POWER
 1993, Nicholas Kristof published an
influential article entitled "The Rise of China"
 “The rise of China, if it continues, may bethe most important trend in the
world for the next century. When historians100 years hence write about our
time,they may well conclude that the mostsignificant development was
theemergence of a vigorous marketeconomy—and army—in the most populous
country of the world”
 The assessment of China's present power status in the world, to a certain extent,
reflects people's concern about the rise of China in the future. There is a
significant difference between a country that takes 30 years to rise and one that
takes 300 years. The former is a human exertion and the latter is destiny. The
former requires strategy while the latter depends on mere luck. For the sake of
developing a correct strategy for its rise, China has to make constant efforts to
understand its current power status.
 For most of the twentieth century, de-spite some positive developments, China
was not internationally perceived as "rising
 ." Excessive foreign intervention, ideological struggles between Communists and
Nationalists,
 a devastating 1937–1945 war with Japan, followed by a civil war, occurred.
 Mao's successful 1949 Communist Revolution brought forth the 1958–1962
GreatLeap Forward that greatly reduced agricultural production in China and led
to mass famine,
 1966–1976 Cultural Revolution threw the country into a decade of hierarchical
struggles and social chaos.
 By 1976 China had begun to recover from the worst devastations of the Cultural
Revolution, it was an economically backward country compared to Western
Europe and Japan. It was not until the succession of Deng Xiaopingin 1978 and
his introduction of gradual market reforms that China began to move onto the
path of development again
 China’s rapid growth in the post-Cold Warperiod was echoed at the start of the
new century by another wave of high-speed growth that averaged more than 10
percent per year for a decade.
 in 2005, another article appropriately titled “China’s Peaceful Rise to Great-
Power Status” received fame.
 As Chinese intellectual and government adviser Zheng Bijian proclaimed,“China
does not seek hegemony or predominance in world affairs . . . Chi-na’s
development depends on world peace—a peace that its development will in turn
reinforce.
 CHINA has been growing extremely rapidly for a long time, but an important
shift in its growth pattern occurred at the time of the global financial crisis.
During the six years up to 2007 China’s GDP grew at an average rate of 11
percent, with investment equaling 41.5 percent of GDP. The current account
surplus was rising in this period, reaching over 10 percent of GDP. In the six years
since the global crisis, the external surplus has fallen sharply into the range of two
to three percent of GDP, but the shortfall in demand was made up almost
completely by an increase in investment, which has reached more than 50 percent
of GDP in recent years.
 This pattern of growth manifests three problems. First, technological advance, as
measured by Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth, has slowed down. Second,
and closely related, the marginal product of capital is dropping (it takes more and
more investment to produce less and less growth). The real world indicators of
this falling capital productivity are empty apartment buildings, unused airports,
and serious excess capacity in important manufacturing sectors. The third
manifestation of China’s growth pattern is that consumption is very low,
especially household consumption, which is at only one-third of GDP.
 China’s response to this changing growth dynamic is partly external and partly
internal. On the external side, it is no coincidence that this period of excess
capacity at home is the moment at which China launched expensive new
initiatives, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the BRICS
Bank, and the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative in order to strengthen infrastructure
both on the westward land route from China through Central Asia and on the
southerly maritime routes from China through Southeast Asia and on to South
Asia, Africa, and Europe.
 Geopolitically, the rise of China has complicated the old post-World War II
international order founded on the ideological divide between liberalism and
communism, and pushed many countries, particularly inAsia, to make efforts
toward adjusting to a new regional reality that is increasingly centered on Chinese
and American influences. China’s rise challenges US preeminence in Asia and
suggests new geopolitical possibilities.
 China’s initiatives in Asia are seen in many quarters as a setback for the United
States. The U.S. government contributed to this narrative through its efforts to
discourage allies from joining the new AIIB. In the end, major American allies,
such as the United Kingdom, Australia, and South Korea, did join the Chinese
initiative, and Japan is seriously considering becoming a member. However, this
is likely to be a temporary diplomatic setback for the United States
China’s rise strategy its geoplitical
implication
  let us talk about geopolitical ramifications of China’s rise on Northeast,
Southeast, and South Asia, One Belt, One Road(OBOR) initiative and how
China–Asia relations fit into China’s ambition to integrate the Eurasia market.
 North East Asia including Taiwan, has long been a region where the US hub and
spoke system is transparently demonstrated.
Developed during the Cold War period, the hub-and-spoke system is a nickname
for the US foreign policy strategy that emphasizes bilateral relations between the
US (the hub)and select Asian countries (the spokes). US continues to uphold
security alliances with both Japan and South Korea while stationing troops in both
countries as a way to support “peace and stability in the Asia Pacific.” Even
though the US terminated its defense treaty with Taiwan in 1980, continued
military arms sales to Taiwan and the Congressional Taiwan Relations Act in 1979
suggest that Taiwan continues to play a critical role in the system. 
 Notwithstanding historical tensions, China’s rise not only prompted some
observers in Japan to perceive China as a threat in the post-Cold War period, but
the Japanese government adopted new strategies to compete against China.
China's 2011 displacement of Japan to become the world's second-largest
economy ended Japan's almost-140-year position as theleading economic power
in Asia
 In Southeast Asia, perhaps the biggest consequence of China’s rise is a pressing
demand for countries in the region to strategically respond to a new great power in
the neighborhood.
 While China and many Southeast Asian states joined hands in the Cold War as
members of the so called non-alignment movement, China’s relationship with its
southern neighbors exudes both antagonism and benevolence. In general, China
Southeast Asia relations did not begin to significantly move forward until the aftermath
of the 1997 Asia Financial Crisis. China’s decision not to devalue the renminbi saved
countries such as Thailand and Indonesia from further economic damages and greatly
improved China’s status and image in Southeast Asia. Coinciding with its economic
boom in the new century, China looked to Southeast Asia as a convenient region to
support its growing influence as a global power. In contrast with Northeast Asia,
Southeast Asia seems to offer a more favorable environment for cooperation for China
South Asia

 In terms of countries emerging as major powers on the world stage, India is the
latest country to follow China's rise. In 2015, India became the fastest growing
economy in the world. Although China boasts a population of 1.4 billion, India
trails not far behind with a population of 1.3 billion. In addition, India's young
population stands in sharp contrast to a rapidly aging population in China. India’s
size and expanding economy have led many observers to tout India as a future
great power.
 Although India was one of the first countries to recognize China in the Cold War
period and bilateral trade has expanded immensely in recent years, in terms of
geopolitics, the rise of China reinforces India’s strategic importance. Except for
Russia, India is perhaps the only country along the Chinese border that has
sufficient capability to check the expansion of China. Besides China, India and
Pakistan are the only Asian countries to possess a nuclear arsenal, each nation
holding over 100 nuclear weapons.
The One Belt, One Road initiativeand the
Prospects of China’s Rise

  In his visit to Kazakhstan in 2013, Xi announced the establishment of the OBOR
initiative consisting of the SilkRoad Economic Belt and the twenty-First Century
Maritime Silk Road.
  The OBOR initiative is envisioned to be a global integration project that will
realize market integration of more than sixty countries along the planned roads
through trade and infrastructural cooperation. Through the OBOR initiative,
China seeks to further boost its economy, consolidate its peaceful and benevolent
image, and establish its great power status in the world. In May 2017, China held
the first Belt and Road Forum for Inter-national Cooperation in Beijing, which
symbolized the importance of theOBOR initiative. twenty-nine foreign heads of
state and representatives from more than 130 countries attended the event
Articles to consult

 https://
www.academia.edu/36647898/The_Rise_of_China_and_Its_Geopolitical_Implica
tions
 https://
www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/China-rise-as-regional-and-glob
al-power.pdf
 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299402001_The_Rise_of_China_What_
When_Where_and_Why