MBL4801 +Economics+For+Managers +march+2017
MBL4801 +Economics+For+Managers +march+2017
MBL4801 +Economics+For+Managers +march+2017
SBL
(PBA4801)
Dr B Muchara
muchab@unisa.ac.za
mucharab@gmail.com
1
Introductions
O Dr B Muchara: University of Zimbabwe,
University of Fort Hare and University of
KwaZulu-Natal
O Teaching and Research experience:
Microeconomics, Market price analysis,
Agricultural Economics, Natural Resources
Management (Land & Water), Value Chain
Analysis, Economic Research Methodology
2
2. Basic history
6
Scarcity & Choice & Opportunity Cost
on a Graph 1. The opportunity cost is the
sacrifice that you pay for
• Imagine an economy that produces two types of goods getting something.
- Consumer goods (e.g. agricultural goods) E.g. getting fewer consumer
- Capital goods (e.g. cars, computers) goods by moving from E to F,
capital goods: 20 to 60,
100 units
A consumer goods: 800 to 700.
0 B
700 800 1000 units
Consumer goods 7
3. Specific concepts from selected chapters:
Microeconomics
Scarcity & Choice & Opportunity Cost on a Graph
O The PPF also illustrated the
difference between economic
efficiency & economic growth
in simple terms
O What can move the PPF out?
O a new Technology
O Discovering a natural
resources, like oil
O Size of labour force (e.g.
migration)
O Economic decline: move of
PPF inward
O Because of Wars,
Mismanagement, Disasters,
etc.
8
3. Specific concepts from selected chapters:
Microeconomics – consumer sector/demand
9
3. Demand and Supply
O Demand- Want it, afford it, buy it
10
3. Specific concepts from selected chapters:
Microeconomics – consumer sector
• This demand function or curve or schedule:
Shows how much of a given product a household
would be willing to buy at different prices for a
given time period.
• On this curve/function: there is a quantity demanded
- The amount of a product that a Hh would buy in a given
period - at the going market price
• The curve is the DEMAND
• 10 gallons per week = quantity demanded (q) at $3
• From the curve: Law of demand - The negative
relationship between Price & Quantity Demanded (q)
• As P rises, q decreases; as P falls, q increases.
• Price changes lead to shift ALONG the curve
• Changes of the other factors (b,c,d,e) lead to shift OF the
curve itself
• Quiz:
• What would happen if price of the product changed from
$1 to $5?
• What would happen if the Hh expected its income/wealth
to decline?
• Demand on its own does not determine Market
Equilibrium and Price – Supply is the flip side
11
3. Specific concepts from selected chapters: *****
Microeconomics – consumer sector
12
The Determinants of Demand
O Qdx = f (Px, Py, Pz, Y, W, A, E, T, U)
O Px, its own price (of the car)
O Py, the price of its substitutes (other brands/models)
O Pz, the price of its complements (like petrol)
O Y, the income (budget) of the purchaser
(user/consumer)
O W, the wealth of the purchaser
O A, the advertisement for the product (car)
O E, the price expectation of the user
O T, taste or preferences of user
A Shift in Demand
Shift in demand to the right
Price
Qs
£20
£10
QD2
QD1
Quantity
1000 2000
McGraw-Hill
Education, 2013
A Shift in Demand
Shift in demand to the left
Price
Qs
£20
£10
QD1
QD2
Quantity
1000 2000
McGraw-Hill
Education, 2013
What is Supply
O Supply schedule/curve shows how much
of a product firms will sell at different O Supply curve
prices
O On this curve we see the law of supply :
positive relationship between P & q of a
good supplied Price
O An increase in market P will lead to an
increase in q supplied
O A decrease in market P will lead to a
decrease in q supplied. 400
O So Supply = f(P good, Te, P sub, P
inputs, Future P good)
O Again: Changed in P good => Move 300
ALONG curve
O Changes in all other factors => Shift of
curve
O The interaction of Demand and Supply
Curve determines Market Equilibrium (P
& q) 200 300
Quantity of product / year
16
The determinants of supply
O Price of a factor of production
O Price of a substitute
O Price of a complementary product
O Expected future price
O Number of suppliers
O Technology changes
O Natural events
O Market price of the product itself(movement
along the supply curve)
17
A Shift in Supply
Shift in supply to the right
Price
QS1
QS2
£20
£10
QD1
Quantity
1000 2000
McGraw-Hill
Education, 2013
A Shift in Supply
Shift in supply to the left
Price
QS2
QS1
£20
£10
QD1
Quantity
1000 2000
McGraw-Hill
Education, 2013
Market Equilibrium
Income elasticity
Cross Elasticity
Price Elasticity – the concept
• If price rises by 10% - what happens to
demand?
• We know demand will fall
• By more than 10%?
• By less than 10%?
• Elasticity thus measures the extent to which
demand will change
Price Elasticity of Demand
R8 B
R6 A
2 6 Can of Rice
28
CATEGORIES OF ELASTICITY
• Unitary Elasticity: Ep = 1
• Elastic Demand: Ep > 1
• Perfectly Elastic: Ep = ∞
• Perfectly Inelastic: Ep = 0
• Inelastic Demand: Ep < 1
Income Elasticity of Demand
– The responsiveness of demand
to changes in incomes
• Normal Good – demand rises
as income rises and vice versa
• Inferior Good – demand falls
as income rises and vice versa
Cross Elasticity
% Δ Qd of good t
_________________
Xed =
% Δ Price of good y
Elasticity of Demand and
Changes in the Equilibrium
McGraw-Hill
Education, 2013
Elasticity and decision making
Price ($)
Producer decides to lower price to attract sales
10 % Δ Price = -50%
% Δ Quantity Demanded = +20%
Ped = -0.4 (Inelastic)
5 Total Revenue would fall
Not a good move!
D
5 6
Quantity Demanded
Elasticity and decision making
Price ($)
Producer decides to reduce price to increase sales
% Δ in Price = - 30%
% Δ in Demand = + 300%
Ped = - 10 (Elastic)
Total Revenue rises
10
Good Move!
7
D
5 Quantity Demanded 20
Elasticity
• If demand is price • If demand is price
elastic: inelastic:
• Increasing price would • Increasing price would
reduce TR (%Δ Qd > % Δ increase TR
P) (%Δ Qd < % Δ P)
• Reducing price would • Reducing price would
increase TR reduce TR (%Δ Qd < % Δ
(%Δ Qd > % Δ P) P)
Elasticity
• Cross Elasticity:
• The responsiveness of demand
of one good to changes in the price of a
related good – either
a substitute or a complement
% Δ Qd of good t
__________________
Xed =
% Δ Price of good y
USE OF PRICE ELASTICITY
• Used to determine pricing policy
• Firms can use it for planning e.g. by estimating the
effect of a price change, firms can plan the number
people to employ & the impact on cash flow
• Used when price discriminating to set price in each
market.
• Used by Gvt to estimate the impact of an indirect
tax in terms of sales & tax revenue.
• Used to estimate the impact on consumer spending,
producers’ revenue & income of any shift in supply.
Market Structure and Pricing
Market Structure
Determinants of market structure
Freedom of entry and exit
Nature of the product – homogenous (identical), differentiated?
Control over supply/output
Control over price
Barriers to entry (by laws or cost of entry)
Degree of competition in the industry
High levels of competition – Perfect competition
Limited competition – Monopoly
Degrees of competition in between
Price takers: Perfect Competition
Market conditions
many buyers, many sellers
identical products
51
Public Economics
Government
O Markets are not O Different tax systems have
own merits and demerits
perfect & they fail O They can be easy to
O One of the reasons for collect (low admin cost) –
but not equitable
government O They can lead high
intervention deadweight loss (excess
burden)
O By creating artificial O But having no tax system
markets at all may be worse than
having an imperfect
O E.g. taxation system system
52
Public Economics
Government
O Types of taxes based on equity:
53
Public Economics
Government
O The philosophy of equitable tax
O Pay as you benefit (benefits received principle) – e.g. e-tolls
- Difficult for most public goods (non excludability – e.g. street
lights)
- Public goods: hard to exclude others & non rivalry (does not
diminish with consumption – e.g. solar energy)
O Pay as you earn (ability to pay principle) – e.g. proportional
income tax – irrespective of benefits (distributional)
O Horizontal equity – Everyone in the same income bracket is
treated the same way
O Vertical equity – Those with greater ability should pay more
O Easier to think about? Hard to apply?
- How is the ability measured? By how much more to pay? 54
Public Economics
O Tax burden
Government
- the cost of tax to society
- i.e. Consumer & producer surplus
O Tax on wine supply
transferred to govt revenue
O Tax incidence
- how the burden is shared
S+T
O Burden can be SHIFTED – away from
those it is intended for Tax
O The fig. shows the size of tax burden on
wine & how it is shared S
O Tax affects supply of wine Pc E1
O Parallel shift of S
P0 E0
O The Burden = Blue + Red areas
O Incidence:
Pp
- Blue – transfer from consumers
D
- Red – transfer from producers
• You can calculate these areas
• But that is not the only cost to
q0
society !!!!! All areas depend on elasiticities55
• DEADWEIGHT LOSS/EXCESS =
GREEN
Macroeconomics
O If Adam Smith = Microeconomics
Then John Keynes = Macroeconomics
Outcomes:
O Macroeconomics - deals with the economy as a whole?
O Revisit the circular flow of payments
O We are interested in creating an Aggregate Demand & Aggregate
Supply Model
O Agg. Demand: we learn about Keynes Model that links Aggregate
Expenditure to National Income/Output (Y)
O Aggregate Expenditure is composed of Hh & Firms & Government &
(International Mkts) on the Y- Axis
O National Income/Output is on the X-axis (size of an economy)
O Then we predict size of economy (i.e. National Income X-axis), given
changes in components of Aggregate Expenditure
O This is a stepwise process – starting with Hhs, Firms, Govt, etc
O After this we specify Aggregate demand
O Aggregate Supply is much simpler
O We conclude by combining the aggregates for a complete model 56
In typical textbooks the flows are considered
among these stakeholders (payments for
goods/services)
57
Economic indicators and
macro-economic concepts
O Economic indicators reported in the media are
rather financial indicators.
O Examples of economic indicators are:
O GDP
O GNP
O CPI
O Producer Price Index (PPI)
O Budget deficit
O National Debt
O Unemployment
O Inflation
58
Indicators cont!
O Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Is the market value of the
final goods and services produced within a country in a given
time period.
O Can be measured in two ways:
i. Expenditure Approach(AE) i.e [C,I,G, (X-M)]
ii. The Income Approach (Y) . Also defined as the total
amount for the services of the factors of production used
to produce final goods and services eg. wages, interest, rent
and profit
O GDP=AE=Y=C+I+G+(X-M)
C=consumption, I –Investment, G=govt expenditure, X=Exports,
M=Imports
O Real GDP vs Nominal GDP
59
3. Macroeconomics Demand:
Goods & Services
O We will go back to Investment & Interest Rate link when dealing with Money
Market
O With AE = C + I, we want to know where Income is located (Equilibrium Output)
O Where is Spending = Income (AE = Y) (The 45 degree line represents equality)
O Y = AE = C +I (Intersection pt of 45 line & AE = C+I)
O The Consumption Function is Key in Determining this equilibrium level of income
O And solve for Y in the equation: Y = C + I, when
- C = 100 + 0.75 Y (consumption function)
- I = 25
- Y = C + I = [100+ 0.75Y] + 25
- Y – 0.75Y = 100 + 25
- 0.25Y = 125
- Y = 125/0.25 = 500 units
- Equilibrium income = 500 units
- This is the recipe will always be the way to work out Equilibrium Income even
when we include government sector
- At Y = 500 ; as well S=I (see proof in textbook)
60
3. Macroeconomics Demand:
Goods & Services
61
3. Macroeconomics Demand:
Goods & Services***
O The only difference is that the government taxes income and
this alters the Consumption Function
O After taxes Consumption Depends on income after tax (Y – T)
O So: C = 100 + 0.75 (Y – T)
O But government also invests like firms in an economy
O Otherwise deriving equilibrium income with Government stays
the same: AE= Y = C+ I + G
O So is deriving the G multiplier which is still 1/MPS
O Study the rest of the multipliers
O We are now move from goods/services to money markets
O We said the connection between the 2 markets was the Interest
Rate & Investment
62
GDP cont!
O Uses of GDP
O To compare standards of living over time
(GDP per capita )
O To compare the standards of living across
countries
O Real GDP fluctuations- the business cycle
O Expansion, Recession, Peak, Trough
63
64
Consumer Price Index
(CPI)
O CPI- a measure of the average of the prices paid by urban consumers for a
fixed basket of consumer goods and services.
O Always calculated from a base year for urban consumer:
O CPI = [Cost of basket at current prices/cost of basket at base yr]x100
O The CPI Basket in SA
O Housing and utilities (24.1%)
O Transportation(15.8%)
O Food and non-alcoholic beverages (14.8%)
O Miscellaneous goods and services (15.1%)
O Household contents and services (5%)
O Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (5.5%)
O Recreation and culture (4.5%)
O Clothing and footwear (4.2%)
O Communication(2.9%)
O Restaurants and hotels (3.6%)
O Education (3.0%)
O Health (1.5%)
65
3. Macroeconomics Demand:
Money Mkts
O Interest rate (r) is the price of money
O Like in microeconomics demand
O Price = Y axis
O Money (Quantity) = X-axis
O Because supply of money (notes) does not
depend on r, and
O Central Bank uses reserve ratio, repo rate mkt
ops to control Ms
O Ms is vertical line
O Where Md = Ms we have Money Market
Equilibrium
O Increase in Md increase in r
O Increase in Ms decrease in r
O On the other hand decrease in r increase in
Investment increase AE increase Y
increase Md, which again increase r, etc.
O Circular connection of Goods/Services &
Money Markets 66
3. Macroeconomics Demand:
Money Mkts
O Already we can discuss O Investment Schedule
policy effects from
Keynesian Economics: (IS) curve
O Expansionary Policies:
- Fiscal policy: to increase
Y: increase G & decrease
T which will increase AE
then Y
- Monetary policy: to
increase Y: increase Ms to
decrease r to increase
Investments to increase
AE to increase Y
67
Labour market
O StatSA calculates three indictors of the state of
the labour market:
O The unemployment rate (number of
unemployed/labour)%
O The absorption rate (number of people
employed/Working-age population)%
O The labour force participation rate (labour
force/working-age population)%
68
Types of unemployment
O Frictional unemployment
O Structural unemployment
O Cyclical unemployment
O Natural unemployment (frictional & structural
without cyclical)
69
Labour Markets - briefly
70
Macro-economic models
O Phillps curve
O AS/AD Model
71
The Phillips Curve
O The Phillips curve shows the relationship
between unemployment and inflation in an
economy.
O The curve suggested that changes in the level
of unemployment have a direct and
predictable effect on the level of price
inflation.
72
Short run Phillips Curve
73
Phillips curve explanation
An increase in AD, would trigger the following sequence
of responses:
OAn increase in the demand for labour as government
spending generates growth.
OThe pool of unemployed will fall.
OFirms must compete for fewer workers by raising
nominal wages.
OWorkers have greater bargaining power to seek out
increases in nominal wages.
OWage costs will rise.
OFaced with rising wage costs, firms pass on these cost
increases in higher prices.
74
Long-run Phillips curve
75
Macroeconomics
O Caution
O Aggregate Demand & Aggregate Supply
- Are NOT SUMS of market Demand & Supply
!!!
O Aggregate Demand = Goods & Services
Market & Money Market in a country
O Aggregate Supply = Aggregate Productive
Capacity (Technology/Human
capital/Innovation, etc) of a country
76
Macroeconomics:
Aggregate Demand
O Now we are ready to derive the
AGGREGATE DEMAND curve which
connects two markets (goods & services
AND Money):
O The AD curve is a relationship between
overall price level & National Income
O AD falls when the Price Level increases
because higher price level (inflation) leads
Central Bank to raise interest rate
O This decreases investment which decreases
National income (Y)
O The AD curve reflects a negative relationship
between P & Y
O AD rises when: Ms & G go UP or when T
falls 77
Macroeconomics:
Aggregate Supply
O Much easier to derive
O aggregate supply: The
total supply of all goods and
services in an economy
O It is better thought of as a
“price/output response” curve
O a curve that traces the price
decisions and output decisions
of firms given different levels
of AD (A to A’)
O The firms are not price takers
78
Macroeconomics: Aggregate Supply
O The output decisions relate to capacity to
produce with increasing Demand
O In the 1980s Supply Economists +
(Reagan/Thatcher) said Supply will Create
its Demand O AD/AS together
O The aim was to encourage any productive/
economic activity, e.g. entrepreneurship
O To improve productive capacity:
technology; skills; favourable labour
market conditions; tax cuts for business
and individuals; stable institutions (pro
production/business economics)
O Think: Washington Consensus
O policy to stimulate production is supply side
expansionary policy
O As the economy reaches full productive
capacity the AS curve becomes vertical
O On the other hand: Stimulation via AD
measures leads inflation Po to P1
79
Some AD/AS policy considerations
O AD expansionary measures:
- for SR stimulation of Y
AS
- Recession/Depression (e.g.
1930/2008) measures
P
- Fiscal & Monetary Policies
- AE = C + I + G + (M)
- Challenge: AD pull inflation/ heating
up – see graph P
O AS expansionary measures are for
stimulating Y (SR) & Growth (LR)
- improve productivity of L & K (SR) Y
– on PPF
AS
- Expand stock of L & K (LR) – shift
PPF P
- Lower inflation
• Labour Markets (L) &
Technology/Innovation (K) are NB
parts of LR - AS policy measures AD
Y
• So - LM & Growth Chapters are NB
80
Economic growth
81
ECONOMIC POLICY
TYPE OF POLICY VARIABLES INSTITITUTIONS
Fiscal policy Govt spending, taxes, National treasury,
borrowing minister of finance
Monetary policy Interest rates, quantity of SARB, monetary policy
money and credit committee, National
Treasury
Exchange Rate Policy Exchange rate controls, SARB, National Treasury
Exchange rate
83
Why is the global economy developing?
1. Culture
– Globalization is a cultural suspension of time and space,
aided by:
•Travel
•Film and media industries
•Technology communications
2. Politics
– Political recognition of the economic benefits of trade and
the costs of trade restrictions
3. Creation of international and regional trade bodies
– International
• GATT, WTO, BRICS
– Regional trade blocs
• EU, NAFTA, ASEAN; COMESA,
• Leading to a progressive reduction in trade restrictions
over time
4. Economic
O– Importance of comparative advantage
84
Trade Restrictions
Reasons:
•To protect infant industries,
• Ao protect strategic sectors,
• A way of life/norm by other countries; eg command economies
Types of restrictions:
– Tariffs
• Act as a tax on imports
– Quotas
• Limit the amount of imports
Negative impact:
• Trade restrictions limit trade
• Trade restrictions limit the exploitation of comparative advantage
85
Why do firms become global
• Revenue growth
• Cost reductions
• Exploit sources of international competitiveness
– National, – Industrial, – Firm specific
•Accessing cheap sources of labour
• Accessing productive skilled labour
• Accessing cheap raw materials
• Accessing cheap technology/capital
• Accessing or exploiting?
86
Thank You
87