STEEPLE Analysis of Energy

Crisis in Pakistan and recruitment

of Distributed Energy Sources
based micro-grids as Potential
Solution

Wajid Ali
15-MS-EE-18
Engr. Prof. Dr. Aftab Ahmad
Chairman, EED

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Problem Statement
Non-simultaneously upgradation of electrical power-
sector of Pakistan has made whole electrical power system
non-resilient. Due to which, frequent power outages are
observed commonly in every season in Pakistan. The
research question for this thesis is identification of key
responsible factors behind prolonged energy crisis in
Pakistan and to find that how they can be fixed by
recruiting distributed energy resources based micro-grids.

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Aims & Objectives
 Aim
To conduct STEEPLE analysis to identify responsible factors
behind current energy crises in Pakistan and present the recruitment of
DERs based micro-grids as potential solution.
 Objectives
1. To analyze the various factors like social, technical, economic and
political factors which are responsible for current energy crisis in
Pakistan.
2. To devise possible potential solutions to address the current
energy crisis in Pakistan and illustrate how increased generation
from Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) can be a potential
solution.
3. To discuss the current state of DERs in Azad Kashmir and make
suggestions to make them more competitive.
4. Simulate solar-powered micro-grid for a village in HOMER
software.
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Literature Review
 In August 2017, F. Creutzig et. al [1] presented solar powered
microgrids as potential candidate to mitigate contributions of
electrical power system to climate change. To achieve the 2 °C
goal of the Paris Agreement, fossil fuels need to be phased out
and replaced by low-carbon sources of energy. This will require
the nearly complete decarbonization of the power sector by 2050.
 In February 2018, D. Akniyele et.al [2] presented a comprehensive
overview of microgrid technologies globally being used with their
applications and applied STEEP (social, technical, economic,
environmental and political) model to assess microgrid failure
factors (MFF). Based on model analysis, sustainable planning
framework (SPF) was introduced to install microgrids at any
remote location.

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Selected Challenges & avenues
 Paper 1 (published in Nature Energy Journal with
IF=46),presented the solar power potential as potential
solution for lowering the global temperature by 2°C, through
reducing reliance on non-renewable energy resources.
Inspired by this paper, the viability of Deployment of DERs
based microgrids in Pakistan was assessed through HOMER
software based simulation for solar microgrids for the village.

 Paper 2 (published in Energies Journal with IF 2.6)

presented STEEP analysis of microgrids deployment.
Inspired by the work, STEEPLE analysis of prolonged
energy crisis in Pakistan was conducted to identify its cross-
sectoral scope and challenges; potential solutions were also
briefly presented.
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Methodology of Research
Design
• STEEPLE analysis of energy crisis of Pakistan and Potential
1 Solutions

• Data collection of electricity bills of a village for annual history

2

• Brief Description of existing DERs in Pakistan, (in focus with AJK)

3

• .Design of micro-grid in Homer Software for simulation purpose

4

• Comparison of Results
5

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Methodology of Research
S Social • Population Explosion and Urbanization

Method
T • Improper :
Technical of Analysis STEEPLE
Energy-mix: High cost ofmethod
generation of
• High Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Losses
analysis •
•
Insufficient Infrastructure
Postponement in Commissioning of Power Plants
E Environmental • Increasing demand due to increasing temperature
• Heavy Rains and Floods
E Economic Stagnant Growth of economy and Circular Debt
P Political Political Instability, Inter-provincial Disharmony, Water
Disputes with neighbors
L Legal • Non-execution of Environmental Laws: Deforestation
and energy crisis
• Poor mechanism for recovery of energy bills from
consumers and government offices
• Poor execution of already existing energy security laws

E Ethical • Corruption
• Power Theft

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 Objective1: STEEPLE Analysis
 Social Factors: Population Explosion

Population (in millions) Rise in Population density in

250000
Pakistan Over the years
250
200000
Population (in millions)

200
150000

Population Density
150
100000
100
50000
50
0
5 5 65 975 985 995 005 015 017 019
19 1 9 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Years Years

 As Population Density = Number of people/ Unit Area

 As Population density increases, Energy usage per unit
area also increases.

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Social Factors (Contd).: Urbanization
Rise in Urbanization rate in Rise in energy consumption per Capita
Pakistan over past years over past years in Pakistan
600

Energy Consumption (KWH)

40 500
Urbanization Rate

30 400
300
20
200
10
100
0 0
71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11
19 19 19 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 2 0 20 20

Years Years

Rise in per capita-consumption versus

per-capita Consumption (kWh)

rise in urbanization rate in Pakistan
600

400

200

0
8 1 2 7 6 9 3 8 4 9 8 8 9 5 1
5 .0 6.0 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.5 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 3 5.6
2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Urbanization Rate

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Technical Factors
 Improper Energy-mix: High cost of generation

percentage wise Energy Mix of Pakistan

mixed; 0.21; 0%

RLNG; 20.87; 21%

Hydel; 32.95; 33%

Solar; 0.53; 1%
Baggase; 2.68; 3%

Wind; 2.46; 2%

HSD; 0.12; 0%
Coal; 14.14; 14%

Nuclear; 6.78; 7%

Import from Iran; 0.38; 0% F.O; 2.07; 2%

Gas; 16.8; 17%

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Improper Energy-mix (contd.): Higher cost of Generation

Fuel Type Generation Share Cost Share Rate

(MkWh) (Percent) (Million Rs) (Percentage) Rs/KWh

Hydel 43314 32.95% 4,214 1% 0.10
Coal 18589 14.14% 103,562 21% 5.57
HSD 161 0.12% 2400 0% 14.90
F.O 2721 2.07% 40,853 8% 15.01
Gas 22088 16.80% 93,647 19% 4.24
Nuclear 8913 6.78% 8,950 2% 1.00
Mixed 271 0.21% 2763 1% 10.18
Import from Iran 496 0.38% 5237 1% 10.55
Wind Power 3234 2.46% 641 0% 0.20
Bagasse 3517 2.68% 23465 5% 6.67
Solar 701 0.53% - 0% -
RLNG 27430 20.87% 198,491 41% 7.27
Total 131,436 100% 484,224 100% 3.68
Energy Charges [Net of NTDC 128,397   484,224   3.77
Losses]

Cap. Charge [Rs/kWh]   664,374   5.17

UOSC [Rs/kWh]   41,282   0.32

Total Cost [Rs/kWh]   1,189,880   9.27

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Technical Factors (Contd.)
 High Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Losses
Years Units 2013- 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018
2014
Units Sold GWH 71,055 72,642 76,623 81,558 91,902
Allowed T&D Percentage 15.3 14.2 15.3 15.3 16.3
losses

Actual T&D Percentage 18.7 18.7 17.9 17.9 18.3

losses

Excess losses Percentage 3.3 4.5 2.6 2.6 2.0

of Discos

Impact of PKR (in 39,332 52,562 31,865 33,961 29,389

Excess losses million)

Cumulative PKR (in 39,332 91,894 123,759 157,720 187,109

Loss Impact million)

In 5 years (2013-18), electrical power system of Pakistan suffered

T&D losses of worth 187,109 million Rs. Almost 187 Billion Rs

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 Technical Factors (Contd.)
 Insufficient Infrastructure:
DISCOs Percentage of Total Over-Loaded Percentage of Total Over-Loaded
Power Transformers (above 80%) Distribution Transformers (above
80%)

2015-2016 2015-2016 2015-2016 2016-2017

GEPCO 40.91 40.91 2.58 2.39

LESCO 45.35 45.35 43.23 30.13

PESCO 50.36 50.36 31.99 29.18

TESCO 40.00 40.00 1.11 1.15

IESCO 19.07 19.07 6.83 6.19

FESCO 56.91 56.91 3.36 1.84

MEPCO 43.87 43.87 4.65 5.19

HESCO 67.89 67.89 23.59 9.28

SEPCO 28.45 28.45 18.39 20.69

QESCO 52.80 52.80 16.30 15.91

Total 45.15 45.15 15.31 12.54

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Technical Factors (Contd.)
 Postponement in Commissioning of Power Plants
Sr. Name of Installed Planned start Planned date of Actual/Expected Time of
No. Power Capacity date of the Commissioning date of Delay
Plant (MW) projects Commissioning (Years)

1 Gopal 17.4 July 2002 Sep. 2006 June 2013 7

Zam
2 Satpara 17.3 April 2003 Dec. 2006 June 2012 5.5
Dam
3 Allai 121 June 2003 June 2007 Mar 2013 6
Khwar
4 Duber 130 June 2003 Oct. 2008 Dec 2013 5
Khwar
5 Khan 72 June 2003 Oct. 2007 Mar 2012 4.4
Khwar
6 Mangla 310 June 2004 Dec. 2009 Oct. 2011 1.8
Dam
raising
7 Neelum 969 2002 2008 March 2018 10
Jehlum

8 Diamer 4500 Nov. 2008 2015 2025 10

Basha
9 Bunji Dam 7100 2009 MoU Signed 10

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Environmental Factors
 Increasing Temperature and increasing electricity
demand
 Heavy Rains and Floods
Entity Direct Damage (Rs in
millions)

Transmission 19.7

Distribution 261.8

Total Power Losses 281.5

Sub Total 563.0

Reconstruction Cost 281.5

Overall Loss 844.5

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Economic Factors
 Stagnant Growth of economy
 Circular Debt

Electricity Electricity
Imported Generated

National Transmission Central Power

and Dispatch Company Purchasing
Authority

Distribution
Government Companies
Subsidies
Electricity

Payments
Consumers

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Economic Factors : Circular Debt (contd.)
Entity Amount (billion) Payable by:

Capacity payments Rs. 323.428 31st December 2018

Others Rs. 13.428 31st December 2018

Interest Rs. 77.212 31st December 2018

Federal govt Rs.10.4 November 30, 2018

AJK Rs.51.1 November 30, 2018

FATA Rs.14.8 November 30, 2018

Agriculture tube-wells Rs.238.4 November 30, 2018

Baluchistan

KE Rs.65.2 November 30, 2018

Provincial Government Rs.48.5 November 30, 2018

Private (DISCOS) Rs.450.8 November 30, 2018

IPPS Rs.1.8 November 30, 2018

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Political Factors
 Political Instability
 Inter-provincial Disharmony
 Water Disputes with neighbors

Legal Factors
 Non-execution of Environmental Laws: Deforestation and energy
crisis
 Poor mechanism for recovery of energy bills from consumers and
government offices
 Poor execution of already existing energy security laws.

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Ethical Factors
 Corruption
 Unwise Use of Energy
 Power Theft
DISCOS Area/Province Units theft in July 2017- Respective Cost
being served March 2018
GEPCO Punjab 80 million units Rs1.002 billion

LESCO Punjab 546 million  units Rs6.656 billion

PESCO KPK + AJK 1.921 billion units Rs23.489 billion

TESCO Tribal Areas (KPK ---------- -------

now)

IESCO Islamabad + AJK 16 million units Rs0.226 billion

FESCO Punjab 128 million units Rs1.524 billion

MEPCO Punjab 286 million units Rs3.021 billion

HESCO + SEPCO Sindh 1.126 billion units Rs16.505 billion.

QESCO Baluchistan 460 million units Rs6.751 billion

56.153 billion rupees were lost in power theft in

JUly2017-March2018.
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Objective2: Potential Solutions to address Energy
Crisis
 Simultaneously upgrade all segments of power sector.
 Choose prejudiced energy-mix formula. Adopt hydel power
generation to replace thermal power generation gradually. SHPP
(small hydro-power plants) which require low funds should be constructed.

River wise power generation potential in Pakistan

 Control urbanization rate by providing facilities in rural areas also.
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Potential Solutions to address Energy Crisis
 Introduce fast cash recovery and bill payment methods to manage
circular debt.
 Harvest renewable energy. The concept of zero-energy buildings must be
utilized.
 Deploy DERs based micro-grids to ensure resilient power supply.
 Introduce power sector reforms on managerial side also.
 Promote public-private partnership through renewable energy
entrepreneurship to manage the financial constraints.
 Preserve the forests and greenery to control rising temperature.
 Transform power grid into smart grid in order to monitor and control the
smooth power supply----to the consumers and curb down the power theft.
 Ensure the timely construction and completion of new projects.
 Invest in consumers education to teach them efficient use of energy.
 Inter-provincial conflicts on water as well as water conflicts with neighbors
should be settled down earlier in order to utilize huge potential of hydel
generation.

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Objective3: Current State of Distributed
Energy Sources In AJK (in focus)
Sr.# Status Nos. Capacity (MW)

1 Commissioned (by 15+2+4=21 58.32+2069.00+234.5=2361.82

  PDO+WAPDA+PPC/PPI
B)

2 Ongoing (by PDO+ 12+3=15 146.8+828.06=974.860

PPC/PPIB)

3 Upcoming Projects 27+28+02=57 194.13+4214.39+1509.00=5919.02

(Public sector+ Private
sector + raw sites)
  Total (identified) 93 9254.20 (MW)

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How the Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) based micro-grids
are competitive?
Benefits for deploying Description of Benefits
DERs
Affordability Either they will get profit or their cumulative bill will be
reduced.

Indigenous Energy Potential Its technology, rather than fuel. It will reduce over-reliance
on foreign fuel.
Reduced Network Cost With deployment of Distributed Generation, the continuous
need of grid expansion will be reduced.

Reliability DGs can operate in grid-connected mode and off-grid mode.

Shift from Thermal to DGs are helpful to shift high reliance from thermal to power
renewable energy sector.
Deployment of AMI and Deployment of distribution generators based microgrids will
Smart Grid implementation also pave way for deployment of advanced metering
infrastructure and other smart grid features.
Reduction in Transmission The extraordinary T&D losses of Pakistan (18.3%) will be
and Distribution Losses reduced.

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Objective4: Simulation of Solar-based micro-
grid for a village
 Experimental Setup: HOMER Software

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 Electrical Load Profile:

Quantity Value

Average 471

KWh/day

Average 19.63

demand

Peak 58.26

Demand

Load Factor 0.34

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 Electrical Summary

Production
Quantity Value Share (in percentage)

Generic flat plate PV 469,113 KWh/year 84.8%

Grid Purchases 83,954 KWh/year 15.2%

Total 553,067 KWh/year 100%

Renewable Fraction - 51.2%

Consumption and Excess Electricity

AC Primary load 171,915 KWh/year 100%

Excess Electricity 376,523 68.1%

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 Comparison of Base Case system and
proposed Lowest cost system
Percentage
Sr. Properties/Descriptions Base Case Lowest Cost Improvement

No. System System

1 49.5%
Operating Cost $15,129 $7646

2 41.6%
Cost of Energy (COE) $0.0880 $0.0514

3 41.54%
NPC $193,393.26 $113,054.50

4 51.2%
Carbon dioxide gas emissions 108,650kg 53,059 kg

(per year)
5 51.16%
Sulphur Dioxide (per year) 471kg 230 kg

6 51.30%
Nitrogen Oxides (per year) 230kg 112 kg

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Graphical Cost Comparison of both Systems

As depicted in the graph, the NPC cost is lower for

proposed system as compared to the base case system.
($ 80,339 almost)

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Utilization of Research Results
 STEEPLE analysis results will present whole-
sum picture to act upon.
 Deployment of DERs based microgrids is best
solution to electrify far-held areas. To which
power supply from conventional grid is not
economical.
 Entrepreneurship in DERs based microgrids will
open the doors of self-sufficiency in energy
resources for Pakistan, increased content of
clean energy supply and employment.

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Conclusion

 The Cross-sectoral response needed to curb down multi-

faceted reasons behind prolonged energy crisis.
 To reduce vulnerability of power sector of Pakistan to global
oil surges, its thermal reliance must be replaced by
recruitment of DERs.
 Conventional power system is out-dated, under-rated and
resulting in frequent outages. Rather than erecting it only,
Distributed energy sources based micro-grids, which are cost-
competitive, eco-friendly and ease-oriented adaptable solution
in short term and long term prospective, should be recruited
through entrepreneurship.

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References

[1] F. Creutzig, P. Agoston, J. C. Goldschmidt, G.

Luderer, G. Nemet and R. C. Pietzcker, “The
underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate
climate change” Nature Energy (2), 17140, August
2017
[2] D. Akinyele, J. Belikov, Y. Levron, “Challenges of
Microgrids in Remote Communities: A STEEP Model
Application”, Energies, Vol.11, Issue no. 2, February
2018, p. 432

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 Q&A

Thank you

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Reference Slide: Per KWH
GHG Emission per Source
Technology or Mean Low High
Source
Tonns of CO2e/GWh

Lignite 1,054 790 1372

Coal 888 756 1310

Oil 733 547 935

Natural Gas 499 362 891

Solar PV 85 13 731

Biomass 45 10 101

Nuclear 29 2 130

Hydroelectric 26 2 237

Wind 26 6 124

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