Simulation

Simulation is a representation of reality using a model that reacts similarly to reality under given conditions. It is used when experimentation is not possible or when analytical solutions are unknown. The steps of Monte-Carlo simulation include obtaining variable probabilities and converting them to cumulative probabilities, generating random numbers, mapping random numbers to intervals based on cumulative probabilities, and running simulations or trials. An example simulates cake demand over 10 days using random numbers to determine daily demand, compares it to a stock of 30 cakes per day, and calculates average demand.

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Simulation

Uploaded by

rakeshnandiymail

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Why Simulation?

This is a fundamental and quantitative way to

understand complex systems/phenomena which is
complementary to the traditional approaches of
theory and experiment. Simulation (Sim.) is
concerned with powerful methods of analysis
designed to exploit high performance computing.
This approach is becoming increasingly widespread
in basic research and advanced technological
applications, cross cutting the fields of physics,
chemistry, mechanics, engineering, and biology.
Simulation
Simulation is a representation of reality
through the use of a model or other device
which will react in the same manner as reality
under a given set of condition.
Simulation is also defined as the use of a
system model that has the designed
characteristics of reality in order to produce
the essence of actual operation.
Simulation is used under two
conditions.

First, when experimentation is not possible. Note

that if we can do a real experiment, the results
would obviously be better than simulation.
Second condition for using simulation is when the
analytical solution procedure is not known. If
analytical formulas are known then we can find
the actual expected value of the results quickly by
using the formulas. In simulation we can hope to
get the same results after simulating thousands of
times.
Following are the steps involved in
Monte-Carlo simulation:-
Step I. Obtain the frequency or probability of all the
important variables from the historical sources.
Step II. Convert the respective probabilities of the various
variables into cumulative problems.
Step III. Generate random numbers for each such variable.
Step IV. Based on the cumulative probability distribution
table obtained in Step II, obtain the interval (i.e.; the range)
of the assigned random numbers.
Step V. Simulate a series of experiments or trails.

xample 1
New Delhi Bakery House keeps stock of a popular brand of
cake. Previous experience indicates the daily demand as
given below:
Consider the following sequence of random numbers: R. No.
: 21, 27, 47, 54, 60, 39, 43, 91, 25, 20.
Using this sequence, simulate the demand for the next 10
days. Find out the stock situation if the owner of the bakery
house decides to make 30 cakes every day. Also estimate
the daily average demand for the cakes on the basis of
simulated data.
Solution :
Total demand = 320
Average demand = Total demand / no. of
days
The daily average demand for the cakes =
320 / 10 = 32 cakes.