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Risk Management in Financial Institutions

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Chapter 4

Risk Management
in Financial Institutions
Chapter contents
 Types of risks incurred by financial
institutions
Managing credit risk
Managing liquidity risk
Managing interest rate risk

Financial markets and Institutions


4.1 Types of risks

Credit Risk
 the chance that debtors default on their
obligation
 debt securities with long-term maturity pose
more credit risk than securities with short-
term maturity
 banks, thrifts and life insurance companies
have higher degree of exposure to credit risk
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4.1 Types of risks

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4.1 Types of risks

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4.1 Types of risks

Credit Risk...
 managerial efficiency and credit risk
management strategy affects credit
risk of a loan portfolio
 Loan diversification can help
eliminate firm specific credit risk

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4.1 Types of risks

Liquidity risk
 the likelihood that a FI becomes unable to
meet demand for withdrawal,loan, or
indemnity
 may compel FIs to dispose illiquid assets at a
cheap price
 may cause a ‘bank run‘
 deposit insurance

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4.1 Types of risks
Interest Rate (funding)Risk
 caused by maturity mismatch of assets and liabilities
coupled with interest rate volatility
oRefinancing risk –assets have long-term maturity and
liabilities of short-term maturity. Cost of refinancing
may exceed return on assets
oReinvestment risk –holding short-term assets relative to
liabilities. Uncertainity about interest rate at which
borrowed funds will be reinvested
oPrice risk—effect of change in interest rate on value of
an asset or liability

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4.1 Types of risks

Market Risk
 risk incurred in trading assets due to
change in interest rate, exchange rate,
and other asset prices
 faced by FIs engaged in active trading
of assets

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4.1 Types of risks

Cases of FI failure
1. Barings- a 200-years old british bank
failed in 1995 due to trading losses. It
bought a futures contract that worth
$8bill betting that the Nikkei index
would rise. It became insolvent after a
loss of $1.2bill
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4.1 Types of risks

2. Societe Generale- a French Bank lost


$7.2bill as Jerome Kerviel, the bank‘s
trading clerk, invested in future
contracts in European stock indexes
betting that markets would continue to
rise.

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4.1 Types of risks

Off-balance sheet risk


 arises in relation with contingent
assets and liabilities
Eg. Credit guarantees, LCs

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4.1 Types of risks

Foreign exchange risk


 risk that exchange rate changes affect
the value of assets and liabilities of a
FIs

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4.1 Types of risks

Country (sovereign) Risk


 the risk that repayment from foreign
borrowers may be interrupted because of
interference from foreign governments
 governments may control foreign
currency outflows to mitigate currency
shortages
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4.1 Types of risks

Technology and operational risk


 technology risk arises when FIs
technological investment fails to fetch
the anticipated benefit
 economies of scale and economies of
scope

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4.1 Types of risks

Technology and operational risk...


 operational risk arises when the
existing technology or support system
mulfunctions or breaks down
 may also arise due to employee fraud,
misrepresentations, and account errors

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4.1 Types of risks

Insolvency risk
 the risk that an FI may not have
enough capital to offset a sudden
decline in the value of its assets
relative to its liabilities

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4.2 Managing credit risk on the BS

Causes
 the problem of information asymmetry
adverse selection and moral hazard
Credit Analysis
 the 5 C‘s (Capacity, Conditions,
Character, Capital, and Collateral)

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

Sources of liquidity risk


a) When debt holders(depositors or insurance policy
holders) want to withdraw their financial claim
b) Off balance sheet commitments(loan
commitments) made by FIs are exercised
 to meet demands of short term debt holders , FIs
may at times be compelled to liquidate assets at
fire-sale prices

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

Liability side liquidity risk of DIs


 arises due to holding short-term financial obligations
 a DI has core deposit that remains unwithdrawn over a
long period of time
 withdrawals may be offset by attracting new deposits,
and here only the net deposit drain becomes a concern
 a drain on deposit can be managed through
(1) purchased liquidity and (2) stored liquidity mgt

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

(1) Purchased liquidity


 raising short-term funds from the money
market (Repos or interbank loan)
 helps to keep the asset side of the
balance sheet undisturbed
 expensive when cost of the funds is less
than return on asset
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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

(2) Stored liquidity mgt


 keeping excess reserves or by
liquidating near-cash items

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

Example: Impact of purchased liquidity


versus stored liquidity on NI
Suppose Addis Bank has the following
balance sheet:
Assets(‘000) Liabilities and Equity(‘000)
Cash Br 400 Deposits Br6,500
Non-liquid assets 9,600 Borrowed funds 2,000
Equity 1,500
Total assets Br 10,000 Total Liab & Equity Br 10,000

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

Example...
Addis Bank pays, on average, 5% on core deposit
and generates average return of 8% on loans.
Increases in market interest rate are expected to
cause a net drain of Br 2mill. Two options are
available to manage the expected net drain:
(1) Raise short-term debt at a cost of 7%
(purchase liquidity)
(2) Sell loans for cash (store liquidity)

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS
Example...
(1) Raise short-term debt at a cost of 7%
(purchase liquidity)
Decrease in interest exp-
core deposit Br 2mill x 5% = Br 100,000
Increase in interest exp-
short-term debt Br 2mill x 7%= 140,000
Change in Net Income -Br 40,000
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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

Example...
(2) Sell loans for cash (store liquidity)
Decrease in interest exp-
core deposit Br 2mill x 5% = Br 100,000
Decrease in interest income-
loans Br 2mill x 8%= 160,000
Change in Net Income -Br 60,000

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

Asset side liquidity risk


 arises when borrowers want to exercise
loan commitments made by a bank
 such commitments obligate the bank to
satisfy loan demand by borrowers
 demand for loan can be satisfied through
either purchased liquidity or stored liquidity

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

Measuring a Bank‘s liquidity exposure


(a) The net liquidity statement
 Shows the sources and uses of liquidity
 Sources of liquidity include selling near
cash items, borrowing in the money
market, or using excess reserves

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS
Measuring a Bank‘s liquidity exposure
The net liquidity statement
A bank can have the ff sources and uses of liquidity
Sources of Liquidity:
-Near cash items Br 100,000
-max borrowed funds lim 850,000
-excess reserve 150,000
Total Br 1,100,000
Uses
- Funds borrowed Br 550,000
- Interbank loan 250,000
Total Br 800,000
Excess liquidity Br 300,000

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4.3 Managing liquidity risk on the BS

(b) Peer group ratio comparison


 comparison of the following ratios may
help
 loan to deposit
 borrowed fund to total asset
 commitments to lend to total asset
ratio

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4.4 Managing interest rate risk

Measuring interest rate risk


 central banks often manipulate interest rate
as part of the government‘s monetary policy
measure
 two techniques
(1) Repricing (funding gap) model
(2) Duration gap model

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4.4 Managing interest rate risk

(1) Repricing (funding gap) model


 analysis of the interest income earned on assets
and interest expense paid on liabilities over a
certain period
 Repricing gaps can be computed for Rate
sensitive assets(RSAs) and Rate sensitive
Liabilities (RSLs) over different maturity
periods(maturity bucket)

32 Financial markets and Institutions


4.4 Managing interest rate risk

 A negative Gap (RSA<RSL) means a Bank‘s net


interest income will fall
 NIIi = (GAPi)  Ri= (RSAi-RSLi)  Ri
Where
 NIIi = Change in Net Interest Income in maturity bucket i
GAPi = Size of the Gap (Book Value of RSA- RSL)
in maturity bucket i
 Ri = Change in interest rate affecting assets and liabilities in
the ith maturity bucket

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4.4 Managing interest rate risk

Example: Consider the following list of RSAs and


RSLs of Addis Bank (in millions)
Assets Liabilities Gaps
1. 1 Day Br 15 Br 20 Br – 5
2. More than 1 day -3 months 25 35 - 10
3. More than 3 months-6months 65 80 - 15
4. More than 6 months-12months 90 70 20
5. More than 1 year-5 years 40 35 5
6. More than 5 years 15 10 5
Br 250 Br 250 0

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4.4 Managing interest rate risk and solvency risk

Example...
Suppose short-term interest rate increases by 1%
affecting assets and liabilities in the first bucket.
 NII= - Br 5mill x 1%
= - Br 50,000
What would be the change in NII if the change
in short-term interest rate affects RSAs and
RSLs that can be reprised within 6months to a
year?
35 Financial markets and Institutions
4.4 Managing interest rate risk

(2) Duration model


 duration measures interest sensitivity of an
asset or liability‘s value to small changes in
interest rates
D = - %  security market value/
( R/1+R)

36 Financial markets and Institutions


End of Chapter 4

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