Presentation No. 1 - Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclones
07/02/21 Juma Al-Maskari, j.almaskari@met.gov.om 1

What are Tropical Cyclones (TC) ?
A low-pressure weather system in which the

central core is warmer than the surrounding
atmosphere. For this reason they are classified
as “warm core” systems. They are also called
Hurricanes, Typhoons.
2
What are Tropical Cyclones (TC) ?
 Forms over a tropical ocean.
 Center of storm is warmer than the surrounding air.
 Has no fronts.
 Strongest winds are near the Earth's surface.
 Main energy source is the latent heat of condensation
 Air sinks at the center of a TC
 They are moved by steering winds in the troposphere.
 TC weaken rapidly over land
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How do they develop ?
 Warm ocean surface (Tsea>26.5 oC) to a depth of ~ 50 m
(evaporation)
 Surface low pressure (convergence)
 Surface winds are strongly cyclonic weakens with height
 Moist air rises  condenses into water droplets and rain
(latent heat released) higher wind speed (mechanical
energy)
 Faster winds and lower pressure associated with them 
increase evaporation and more condensation
 Released energy increases updrafts
 Divergence at upper levels
 Weak vertical shear
 Earth rotation (Coriolis force) causes the system to spin
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Map of Tropical Cyclones © Wikipedia
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Anatomy of a TC
 The Eye
 The Eye-wall
 Rain-bands
 Storm surge
 Landfall
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Anatomy of a TC
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Airflow Patterns
Anatomy of a TC
 The Eye: The low pressure centre of a tropical
cyclone. Winds are normally calm and sometimes the
sky clears. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular
area and typically 30-65 km in diameter. It is
surrounded by the eyewall
 The Eye-wall: The ring of thunderstorms that

surrounds a storm’s eye. The heaviest rain, strongest
winds and worst turbulence are normally in the eye
wall.
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Anatomy of a TC
 Storm Surge: is enhanced by high winds and greater
storm size.
 Rainbands : Rainbands are bands of showers and

thunderstorms that spiral cyclonically toward the
storm center.
 Landfall: Officially, landfall is when a storm's center

(the center of its circulation, not its edge) crosses the
coastline.
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Classification
 Low Pressure
 Tropical Depression
 Tropical Storm
 Tropical Cyclone
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Categories/Classification
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Why do we need to name TC ?
Storms were initially given names to eliminate

confusion when there are multiple systems in
any individual basin at the same time which
assist in warning people of the coming storm
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Is Gonu an Indian Goddess ?
Gonu meaning 'bag made from palm leaves' in Dhivehi,

the Maldivian language. The name was one of the
Maldivian contribution to the Panel on Tropical
Cyclones
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Frequency of Cyclones in Arabian
Sea
Juma Al-Maskari
21
Formation probability
Juma Al-Maskari
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Tropical (Cyclone) Applications
of Satellite Data
Application: Intensity and position
 One of first and most important applications of
satellite observations in the tropics is the
estimation of tropical cyclone position and
intensity.
07/02/21 Juma Al-Maskari, j.almaskari@met.gov.om 24

Application: Track Forecasting
 Initial position/storm structure analysis

 Improvement of numerical models
• Assimilation of satellite data
 “Evaluation” of numerical models
• Synoptic feature identification for qualitative
prediction
• Model analysis/satellite loop overlays provide
assessment of t=0 hr accuracy
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Application: Center Fixing
 Accurate positions necessary for estimation
of storm motion
 Animation of imagery
• Visible/IR during day
• GOES IR window and shortwave IR at night
 Microwave imagery (SSM/I and AMSU-B)
• Formal center fixes began in 2003
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How are they forecasted ?
 Forecast models, increased understanding of the forces that act
on TC, as well as wealth of data from satellites and other
sensors  lead to increase the accuracy of track forecasts.
 Accurate track predication depend on determining the position

and strength of high and low-pressure areas, and Predicting
how those areas will change during the life of a tropical
system.
 However, prediction of TC intensity is still a challenge due to

the complexity and incomplete understanding of factors that
affect the development of these systems.
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Satellite Data Used in NWP
 HIRS sounder radiances
 Quikscat ocean surface
wind vectors
 AMSU-A sounder
radiances
 AVHRR SST
 AMSU-B sounder
 AVHRR vegetation
radiances fraction
 GOES sounder radiances
 AVHRR surface type
 GOES, Meteosat, GMS
 Multi-satellite snow cover
winds  Multi-satellite sea ice
 GOES precipitation rate  SBUV/2 ozone profile
 SSM/I precipitation rates and total ozone
 TRMM precipitation rates
 Altimeter sea level
observations (ocean data
 SSM/I ocean surface assimilation)
wind speeds  AIRS
 ERS-2 ocean surface wind
vectors
 MODIS Winds
 COSMIC data
 …
 WindSat
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Coverage of satellite observations
used in NWP
AMSUA/B, HIRS, AIRS DMSP SSM/I
Scatterometers GEOS
Satellite Winds Ozone
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Satellite data used in NCEP’s
operational data assimilation systems
 MODIS IR and water vapor  AQUA AIRS 1b radiances
winds  NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-18
 GMS, Meteosat, and GOES and AQUA AMSU-A 1b
cloud drift IR and visible radiance
winds  NOAA-15, -16, and -17
 GOES water vapor cloud top AMSU-B 1b radiances
winds  GOES-12 5x5 cloud cleared
 SSM/I wind speeds radiances
 SSM/I precipitation estimates  NOAA-16 and -17 SBUV ozone
profiles
 TRMM TMI precipitation
estimates
 NOAA-17 HIRS 1b radiances
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Tropical Cyclones

07/02/21 Juma Al-Maskari, j.almaskari@met.gov.om 1

A low-pressure weather system in which the

 The Eye-wall: The ring of thunderstorms that

 Rainbands : Rainbands are bands of showers and

 Landfall: Officially, landfall is when a storm's center

Storms were initially given names to eliminate

Gonu meaning 'bag made from palm leaves' in Dhivehi,

07/02/21 Juma Al-Maskari, j.almaskari@met.gov.om 24

 Initial position/storm structure analysis

 Accurate track predication depend on determining the position

 However, prediction of TC intensity is still a challenge due to

Satellite Winds Ozone

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