Chapter 3 Game Theory: 1.2 Definitions and Theories of Game Theory 1.3 Introduction To Software 1.4 Applications
Chapter 3 Game Theory: 1.2 Definitions and Theories of Game Theory 1.3 Introduction To Software 1.4 Applications
Chapter 3 Game Theory: 1.2 Definitions and Theories of Game Theory 1.3 Introduction To Software 1.4 Applications
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Definitions and Theories of Game Theory
1.3 Introduction to Software
1.4 Applications
1.1 Introduction
Game Theorists who have received
the Nobel Prize
1994 :纳什( John F. Nash )、海萨尼( John C.Harsanyi )、泽尔腾 ( 德)( Reinhard.Selten )
• Non-cooperative game
• Incomplete information
• Subgame and dynamic
game
1996 :莫里斯(英)( James A.Mirrlees )和维克瑞(美)( William Vickrey )
• Asymmetrical game
• Application
2001 :阿克洛夫( George A. Akerlof )、斯宾塞( A. Michael Spence )、斯
蒂格利茨( Joseph E. Stiglitz )(美)
Psychology into
game theory
2005 (以色列)奥曼( Robert J. Aumann )、谢林(美)( Thomas C. Schelling )
Conflict analysis
into game theory
2012 哈佛大学教授埃尔文 ·E· 罗斯、( Alvin E.Roth )及加州大学罗伊德 ·S· 沙普利
( Lloyd S.Shapley )
Fraser 和
Hipel
Kilgour 和
Hipel
Professors in Waterloo
1
Example 1: Prisoner’s Dilemma
1. What is a solution?
2. Is it important of the value of months?
1
What is a Game?
A game consists of
– a set of players
– a set of strategies for each player
– the payoffs to each player for every possible list
of strategy choices by the players.
1
PREFERENCES
Would you like to have tea or coffee to drink.
– Quantitative response: I have a utility value of 1.9673 for coffee
and 1.0000 for tea.
– Human response: I would prefer to drink tea. Thank you.
Quantitative preferences:
– Cardinal number is assigned to each state or object (ex. Dollars or
utility value).
Non-quantitative or relative preferences:
– One state is either more preferred, less preferred or equally
preferred to another.
1
Preference Relations
Preference Relation expresses an individual player’s desirability of
one outcome over another (A binary relationship)
i Preference Relationship (prefers at least as much as)
a i a* a is preferred at least as much as a* by player i
Cardinal
Ordinal
Strictly Ordinal
Unknown
Greatly more (or less) preferred
Transitive
Intransitive
1
PREFERENCES
Ordinal: States are ranked from most to least
preferred where there can be equally preferred states.
Strictly Ordinal: States are ranked from most to least
preferred where there are no equally preferred states.
Transitive: If a decision maker prefers state p to q
and q to r, this implies he prefers to p to r.
Intransitive: A decision maker prefers state p to q, q
to r, but r to p.
1
Elmira Conflict
Elmira is located in southwestern Ontario, Canada. In 1989,
the Ontario Ministry of Environment (MoE) detected that the
underground aquifer supplying water for Elmira was
polluted by N-nitroso demethylamine (NDMA). A local
pesticide and rubber manufacturer, Uniroyal Chemical Ltd.
(UR), was identified, since the prime suspect as NDMA is a
by-product of its production line. Hence, a Control Order
was issued by MoE, requiring that UR take expensive
measures to remedy the contamination. UR immediately
appealed to repeal this control order. The Local Government
(LG)} consisting of the Regional Municipality of Waterloo
and the Township of Woolwich, sided with MoE and sought
legal advice from independent consultants on its role to
resolve this conflict. 1
Utility Functions
ui : A R
a i a* iff ui a ui a*
a ~ i a iff i i
*
*
u a u a
2
DRAWBACKS OF CLASSICAL
GAME THEORY
Preferences over states for a decision maker
are represented cardinally by von Neumann-
Morgenstern utilities.
2
When Conflict Arises
A strategic conflict is a situation in which two or more
decision makers (DMs) with different objectives interact.
2
Negotiation
Human interaction is essentially negotiation.
Negotiation is interaction.
We must become aware of our behavior,
preferences, and mannerisms.
Not everything SHOULD be negotiated:
Potential for MUTUAL BENEFIT is a prerequisite to
negotiation.
2
Negotiation Style
Avoiding may sustain positive outcomes but
permits escalating negative outcomes.
Competing creates a win/lose game.
Compromising gives up something.
Collaborating creates win/win.
2
1.2 Definitions and Theories of Game Theory
2
GAME MODELS
Normal or Matrix Form
Option Form
Graph Model
2
Chicken Game in Normal Form
PLAYER 2
Don’t Swerve Swerve
(D) (S)
1 2
Don’t Swerve (D) 1,1 4,2
DD DS
PLAYER 1
Swerve (S) 3 4
2,4 3,3
SD SS
2
PLAYER 2
1 2
3 4
Swerve (S)
2,4 3,3
SD SS
2
Definitions for Chicken Game
Set of Players: N={Player 1, Player 2} = {1,2}
Strategy Set for Player 1 (Row Player)
S1 = {Don’t Swerve (D), Swerve (S)} = {D,S}
Strategy Set for Player 2 (Column Player)
S2 = {D,S}
Set of States: S1 × S2 = {DD, DS, SD, SS} = {1, 2, 3, 4}
Payoffs for Player 1
P1={1, 4, 2, 3} (First entry in each cell for states 1 to 4)
Payoffs for Player 2
P2={1,2,4,3} (Second entry in each cell for states 1 to 4)
3
Game Theory Jan 07, 2009 3
Game in Normal Form
4
OPTION FORM
Option form was developed to represent more complex
conflict models in a compact and easily understandable
fashion.
Definition: A game in option form is a list of each
player’s options or available courses of action, along with
a rule for specifying the payoffs or preferences.
4
OPTION FORM
An option is a basic action available to a player that can or
cannot be selected.
A Y beside an option means “yes” the option is taken by
the player controlling it.
An N opposite an option means “no” the option is not
selected.
Often 1’s and 0’s are used in place of the Y’s and N’s
respectively.
4
Chicken in graph form
1 2 1 2
3 4 3 4
a) P1 = (1, 4, 2, 3) b) P2 = (1, 2, 4, 3)
4
THE GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICTS
4
Exercise 1: Please present the following game in
option form and graph model:
DM 1 S7 ≻ S3 ≻ S4 ≻ S8 ≻ S5 ≻ S1 ≻ S2 ≻ S6 ≻ S9
DM 2 S1 ≻ S4 ≻ S8 ≻ S5 ≻ S9 ≻ S3 ≻ S7 ≻ S2 ≻ S6
DM 3 : S7 ≻ S3 ≻ S5 ≻ S1 ≻ S8 ≻ S6 ≻ S4 ≻ S2 ≻ S9
4
Option Prioritizing for MoE
Preference
Explanation
Statements
MoE most prefers that Uniroyal not abandon its
-4
Elmira plant.
Next, MoE would like Uniroyal to accept the current
3
Control Order.
MoE then prefers that Uniroyal not delay the appeal
-2
process.
50 5
Graph Model for Elmira Conflict
DM 1 S7 ≻ S3 ≻ S4 ≻ S8 ≻ S5 ≻ S1 ≻ S2 ≻ S6 ≻ S9
DM 2 S1 ≻ S4 ≻ S8 ≻ S5 ≻ S9 ≻ S3 ≻ S7 ≻ S2 ≻ S6
DM 3 : S7 ≻ S3 ≻ S5 ≻ S1 ≻ S8 ≻ S6 ≻ S4 ≻ S2 ≻ S9
5
Find Nash Equilibrium
5
Find Nash Equilibrium
A pair of strategies is a Nash equilibrium if
A’s choice is optimal given B’s choice, and
vice versa.
Nash equilibrium is a situation, or a
strategy combination of no incentive to
deviate unilaterally.
A dominant strategy equilibrium is a Nash
equilibrium;
5
Definition of Nash Equilibrium
A strategy profile is a list (s1, s2, …, sn) of the
strategies each player is using.
If each strategy is a best response given the other
strategies in the profile, the profile is a Nash
equilibrium.
Why is this important?
– If we assume players are rational, they will play Nash
strategies.
– Even less-than-rational play will often converge to
Nash in repeated settings.
5
An Example of a Nash Equilibrium
Column If each strategy
is a best
a b response given
the other
strategies in the
Row a 1,2 0,1
profile, the
profile is a Nash
b 2,1 1,0 equilibrium.
(b,a) is a Nash equilibrium.
To prove this: Given that column is playing a,
row’s best response is b.
Given that row is playing b, column’s best
response is a.
5
1. Finding Nash Equilibria –
Dominated Strategies
What to do when it’s not obvious what the
equilibrium is?
In some cases, we can eliminate dominated
strategies.
– These are strategies that are inferior for every
opponent action.
In the previous example, row = a is
dominated.
5
An Example of a Nash Equilibrium
Column
a b
a 1,2 0,1
Row
b 2,1 1,0
5
Example 3: Find the Nash Equilibrium by
eliminating dominated strategies.
Column
a b c
5
A 3x3 example: Column
a b c
5
A 3x3 example:
Column
a b c
6
Column
a b c
B
Confess Deny
Confess -3*, -3* 0, -5
A Deny -5, 0 -1, -1
6
Exercise 2: Find Nash equilibrium for the
following game.
Prisoner 2
6
Exercise 3: Find the Nash Equilibrium by
eliminating dominated strategies.
You try this one:
Column
a b c
6
Coordination Games
Consider the following problem:
– A supplier and a buyer need to decide whether
to adopt a new purchasing system.
Buyer
new old
6
Game Theory Jan 07, 2009 7
Game with Pure Strategy
and Mix Strategy
7
Pure Strategies
• In all previous examples, players are thought of
as choosing to play either one or the other, but
no combination of both; that is, as playing
purely one or the other.
• The strategies presented so far are players’ pure
strategies
• Consequently, equilibria are pure strategy Nash
equilibria.
7
Example 2-4: 1) Determine Nash equilibrium for the
government-beggar game with pure strategy. 2)
Determine Nash equilibrium with mixed strategy.
beggar
Find job Loaf about
Relief 3 , 2 -1 , 3
-1 , 0,0
government
Not 1
relief
No Nash Equilibrium with Pure Strategies.
7
Mixed Strategies
In many games (such as coordination games) a
player might not have a pure strategy.
Instead, optimizing payoff might require a
randomized strategy (also called a mixed strategy)
7
Nash equilibrium with mixed strategies:
x=probability government chooses supporting
y=probability beggar chooses finding a job
2 X , Y 2xy 3 x (1 y ) (1 x ) y
Beggar’s payoff 2
(2 x 1) 0
: y
x 1/ 2
X 1 / 2,1 / 2
Y 1 / 5,4 / 5
7
Example 2-5: 1) Determine Nash equilibrium for the
husband-wife game with pure strategy. 2) Determine
Nash equilibrium with mixed strategy.
Wife
football shopping
7
(F,F) and (S,S) are Nash Equilibrium with
Pure Strategies.
7
Supervisory Game
Tax Payer
Tax Evasion Not Tax Evasion a—Money of
Payer
Inspect
Tax Authority c—Cost of Inspect
Not Inspect
F—Fine
Assume c<a+F
7
Supervisory Game
Tax Payer
Tax Evasion Not Tax Evasion a—Money of
Payer
Inspect a-c+F, -a-F a-c, -a
Tax Authority c—Cost of Inspect
Not Inspect 0, 0 a, -a F—Fine
Assume c<a+F
8
1
a c F a c y ay Fy c 0
1 X , Y ( x,1 x) x
0 a 1 y
c
y
aF
2
a F a y (a F ) x a 0
2 X , Y ( x,1 x) y
0 a 1 y
a
x
aF
a
Nash Equilibrium with x
aF
Mixed strategy :
c
y
aF
8
Excerser : Given game of rock,
paper , and scissors. Find the Nash equilibrium.
Column
rock paper scissors
8
Two-person zerosum games are
a special case of strategic-form
games with n=2.
8
Two Players, Zero-sum Game
a11 a1n
Payof f mat r i x A=
1
,
n
a 1
a
m1 mn
8
1
8
Optimal Pure Strategy and Saddle
8
Exerciser 2: Determine the following zero-sum game’s
saddle point and the optimal strategy’s value.
2
-2 2 -2 7 VG 3
3
4 3 8 5
6 ( i* , j* ) ( 2 , 2 )
8 -6 2 -1
8 3 8 7
2 3 4 No s addl e poi nt
5 4 2 wi t h pur e s t r at egy.
9
Example 3: Determine the following zero-sum game’s
saddle point and the optimal strategy’s value.
6 5 6 5 5
-1 VG 5
1 4 2 -1
( i* , j* ) (1 , 2 ), (1 , 4 ),
8 5 7 5 5
( 3 , 2 ), ( 3 , 4 )
0 2 6 2 0
Saddl e i s not uni que.
8 5 7 5
9
Sequential Game
When such a game is sequential it is
sometimes possible to argue that one of the
Nash equilibria is more likely to occur than
the other.
Using extensive form
Backward Solution
9
A Sequential Game Example
Market Dominator
Fight Don’t fight
Stay
out (1,9) (1,8)
Entrant
Enter (0,0) (2,1)
(Enter, don’t fight) and (stay out, fight) are both Nash equilibria
when this game is played simultaneously and we have no way of
deciding which equilibrium is more likely to occur.
9
A Sequential Game Example
Dominator
Fight Don’t fight
Stay
(1,9) (1,8)
Entrant out
Enter (0,0) (2,1)
Suppose instead that the game is played
sequentially.
We can rewrite the game in its extensive
form.
9
A Sequential Game Example
Entrant
Stay Enter
out
Dominator Dominator
Fight Don’t Don’t
fight Fight fight
(1,9) (1,8) (0,0) (2,1)
(Stay out, Fight) is a Nash equilibrium. (Enter, Don’t Fight)
is a Nash equilibrium. Which is more likely to occur?
9
9
A Sequential Game Example
The entrant prefers (Enter, Don’t Fight), but
the market dominator may threat to fight.
Is the threat credible?
A market dominator can make it credible.
9
A Sequential Game Example
Entrant
Stay Enter
out
Dominator Dominator
Fight Don’t Don’t
fight Fight fight
(1,9) (1,8) (0,2) (2,1)
By building up excess capacity, the threat becomes
credible. The potential entrant stays out.
9
Extensive Game
9
Extensive Game
10
The two-person extensive-form game called
“Market Entry” shown in the following Figure
which contains chance events. The two players
denote two corporations; each one may or may not
product and sell a new product (entry a new
market). Note that DM 1 decides whether to enter
the market first, and that DM 2 learns whether I has
succeeded or failed before DM 2 makes its
decision. Also, DM 2’s production plan is based on
copying DM 1’s, so if DM 1 decides not to entry
the market, DM 2 won’t either. Thus if DM 2 were
to enter the market, it would be in competition with
DM 1. 10
The two-person extensive-form game called
“Market Entry” shown in the following Figure.
10
Extensive Game
10
Game with Complete Information
10
Exerciser 2-3: Cournot Duopoly Model
10
2. If there is only an enterprise, then
q 0, ( q ) ( a q c ) q
1
0 q* ( a c ) q1 * q 2 *
q 2
1
* ( a c ) 2 1 * 2 *
4
Cournot Duopoly Game is a noncooperateive game that
results in increasing quantities and decreasing profit.
10
Stackelberg Game
q2* (a c) / 4
10
Game with Incomplete Information
10
Complete Information Model
10
Incomplete Information Model
C (q1 ) cq1
Cost function for company 1 :
11
Incomplete Information Model
C (q2 ) cH q2
Cost function for company 2 is with probability
Maybe with probability
C (q2 ) cL q2 cH cL 0 1
When cost is C (q2 ) cH q2
H A cH q1
q2 2
q L A cL q1
2 2
11
Incomplete Information Model
C (q2 ) cH q2
Cost function for company 2 is with probability
Maybe with probability
C (q2 ) cL q2 cH cL 0 1
H A cH q1
q2 2
L A cL q1
q2
2
A c q2H (1 )q2L
q1
2
11