LESSON 2

PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
“One learns by doing a thing; for though you think
you know it, you have no certainty until you try.”

- Sophocles
 OUTLINE
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• Binomial Distribution
• Poisson Distribution
• Hypergeometric Distribution

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• Exponential Distribution
• Normal Distribution
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

a mathematical function that

PROBABILITY provides the probabilities of
DISTRIBUTION occurrence of different
possible outcomes in an
experiment.
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Developed using the combination of concepts of normal curves and its
parameters (mean, variance, standard deviation) and the concepts of
probability theory.

Useful because it is a model of a theoretically perfect frequency

distribution for a population.

It gives a view of the population which allows the determination of

values for the mean, variance, and standard deviation.
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

Probability Distribution

Are symbols (A, B, x, y, etc.) that can take on any of a

VA R I A B L E S specified set of values.

When the value of a variable is the outcome of a

RANDOM VARIABLES statistical experiment that variable is a random
variable.

EXAMPLES OF RANDOM VARIABLES:

x = number of defective circuit boards randomly selected from a batch of 25 boards

x = SAT score for a randomly selected college applicant
x = time headway in traffic flow in seconds for two consecutive cars on a freeway
during a period of heavy flow
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

Probability Distribution

RANDOM VARIABLES
DISCRETE CONTINUOUS
Discrete random variables have a Continuous random variables have
countable number of outcomes an infinite continuum of possible
values.
Examples: Dead/alive,
treatment/placebo, dice, counts, etc. Examples: blood pressure, weight,
the speed of a car, the real numbers
from 1 to 6.
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

Probability Distribution

PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS
A probability function maps the possible values of x against their
respective probabilities of occurrence, P(x)

P(x) is a number from 0 to 1.0.

The area under a probability function is always 1.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Binomial Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Hypergeometric Distribution
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

It describes the probability of

occurrence of each value of a
DISCRETE discrete random variable.

PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

With a discrete probability distribution, each possible value of the discrete random
variable can be associated with a non-zero probability. Thus, a discrete probability
distribution is often presented in tabular form.

Requirements for a Discrete Probability Distribution

(1) 0  p( x)  1

(2)
 p(x)  1
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND VARIABILITY

The population mean, which measures the average value of x in the

population, is also called the expected value of the random variable x. It is
the value that you would expect to observe on average if the experiment is
repeated over and over again.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

Let x be a discrete random variable with probability distribution p(x). The mean
MEAN or expected value of x is given as

  E  x    xp  x 
where the elements are summed over all values of the random variable x.

Let x be a discrete random variable with probability distribution p(x) and mean.
VARIANCE
The variance of x is
    x    p  x
2 2

where the summation is over all values of the random variable x.

The standard deviation  of x is equal to the square root of its variance.

STANDARD
DEVIATION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

An electronics store sells a particular model of computer notebook. There are only four
notebooks in stock, and the manager wonders what today’s demand for this particular model
will be. She learns from the marketing department that the probability distribution for x, the daily
demand for the laptop, is as shown in the table.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5
p(x) .10 .40 .20 .15 .10 .05

Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of x.

 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of x.

   2  1.79 1.34 BINOMIAL

DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A Binomial Experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following

properties:

• The experiment consists of n identical trials.

• Each trial results in one of two outcomes: Success, S and Failure, F.
• The probability of success on a single trial is equal to p and remains the
same from trial to trial. The probability of failure is equal to (1 – p) = q.
• The trials are independent, that is, the outcome on one trial does not affect
the outcome on other trials.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A binomial experiment consists of n identical trials with the probability of success p on
each trial.

The probability of k successes in n trials is

n!
P x  k  C p q n k n k
 p k n k
q2, . . ., n.
for k ! n  k  !
values of k = 0, 1,
k

k : The number of successes that result from the binomial experiment.

n : The number of trials in the binomial experiment.
Notations

p : The probability of success on an individual trial.

q : The probability of failure on an individual trial. (This is equal to 1 - p.)
n! : The factorial of n (also known as n factorial).
nCk: The number of combinations of n things, taken r at a time.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND VARIABILITY

MEAN   np

VARIANCE  2
 npq

STANDARD DEVIATION   npq

 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

TOSS COIN ACTIVITY

 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

1. Suppose a die is tossed 5 times. What is the

probability of getting exactly 2 fours?

2. The probability that a student is accepted to a

prestigious college is 0.3. If 5 students from the
same school apply, what is the probability that
at most 2 are accepted?
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

3. In a study of lifetimes for a certain type of battery, it

was found that the probability of a lifetime X exceeding
4 hours is 0.135. If three such batteries are in use in
independently operating systems, find the probability
that:
a. Only one of the batteries lasts 4 hours or more.
b. At least one battery lasts 4 hours or more.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

Engineering Applications of Binomial Probability

Distribution Model

Two alternative possibilities / outcomes:

• In a series of piles driven into a soil stratum, each pile may or may not
encounter boulders or hard rock
• In monitoring the daily water quality of a river on the downstream side of an
industrial plant, the water tested daily may or may not meet the pollution
control standards
• The individual items produced on an assembly line may or may not pass the
inspection to ensure product quality
• In a seismically active region, a building may or may not be damaged
annually
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of x.

   2  1.79 1.34 POISSON

DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following
properties:
• The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as successes or failures.

• Counts or events occur randomly and independently of one another.

• The average number of successes (μ) that occurs in a specified region is known.

• The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size of the region.

• The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small region is virtually zero.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Its probability distribution provides a good model for data that represent the
number of occurrences of a specified event in a given unit of time or space.

• The number of bacteria per small volume of fluid

• The number of customer arrivals at a checkout counter during a
given minute
• The number of machine breakdowns during a given day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given intersection during a
given time period
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Let µ be the average number of times that an event occurs in a certain period of time or
space. The probability of k occurrences of this event is

 
for values of k = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . .n

e : A constant equal to approximately 2.71828.

(Actually, e is the base of the natural logarithm system.)
Notations

k : The actual number of successes that occur in a specified region.

λ : The mean number of successes that occur in a specified region.
P(x) : The Poisson probability that exactly x successes occur in a Poisson experiment,
when the mean number of successes is μ.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND VARIABILITY

MEAN 

VARIANCE 

STANDARD DEVIATION  
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

1. The average number of condo units sold by an agent of AyalaLand Premier is 2

condos per day. What is the probability that exactly 3 condo units will be sold
tomorrow?
2. The average no. of hours in a month that a die attach machine in SSOT 6 is shut
down due to index jamming problem is 4 for the last 12 months. What is the
probability that a certain die attach machine in SSOT8 will be shut down for 6 hours
in the succeeding month, assuming that the crisis is still prevailing?

3. The average no. of mold voids rejections per 1000-unit lot in a 5-lot evaluation run is
estimated to be 10. Find the probability that a given lot contains more than 15 mold
voids rejects?
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Find the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of x.

   2  1.79 1.34 HYPERGEOMETRIC

DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A hypergeometric experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following

properties:
• A sample of size n is randomly selected without replacement from a population of N items.

• In the population, M items can be classified as successes, and N - M items can be classified
as failures.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A population contains M successes and N – M failures. The probability of exactly k
successes in a random sample of size n is

CkM CnNkM N!
P x  k  
for values of k that depend
C N

n! N  n !
on N, M, and n with n
CnN

N : The number of items in the population.

Notations

k : The number of items in the sample that are classified as successes.

M : The number of items in the population that are classified as successes.
MCk : The number of combinations of M things, taken k at a time.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND VARIABILITY

M 
  n 
N
MEAN  M  N  M  N  n 
 2  n   
 N  N  N  1 

  n
M 
 
 N 
VARIANCE  M  N  M  N  n 
 2
 n   
 N  N  N  1 

 
STANDARD DEVIATION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

1. Suppose we randomly select 5 cards without replacement from an ordinary deck of

playing cards. What is the probability of getting exactly 2 red cards (i.e., hearts or
diamonds)?

2. In an assembly-line production of industrial robots, gearbox assemblies can be

installed in 1 minute each if holes have been properly drilled in the boxes and in 10
minutes each if the holes must be redrilled. Twenty gearboxes are in stock, and it is
assumed that two will have improperly drilled holes. Five (5) gearboxes are to be
randomly selected from the 20 available for the installation in the next five robots in
line.
a. Find the probability that all five boxes will fit properly.
b. Find the expected value, variance and standard deviation of the
time it takes to install these five gearboxes.
 CONTINUOUS
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Exponential Distribution
Normal Distribution
Lognormal Distribution
Uniform, Gamma and Beta Distribution
 END OF
PRESENTATION