Industrial Engineering
Industrial Engineering
Industrial Engineering
Syllabus
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND PRODUCTIVITY (04 Hours)
Introduction, history, objectives, organization structure, scope, Productivity, factors
influencing productivity, Productivity measurement, causes of low productivity and
techniques of their elimination, Introduction to advance industrial engineering techniques.
WORK STUDY AND ERGONOMICS (10 Hours) History, Scope, Objectives, Overview, Method
study Objectives and procedure, Micro motion study, Method study tools, Time study
procedure, Performance rating, Allowances, Predetermined Motion Time Systems (PMTS),
Work Sampling, Ergonomics, Work science, Design factors, Effect of environment, Man-
Machine System, Workload and Fatigues.
PLANT LOCATION AND LAYOUT (07 Hours) Factors affecting location decisions, Methods of
evaluating location alternative, Layout types, Work cells, Repetitive and product-oriented
layout, Computerized layout design procedure
FORECASTING (06 Hours)
Steps, qualitative and quantitative approaches, Monitoring and controlling forecast,
Forecasting in service sector
INVENTORY CONTROL (07 Hours)
Managing inventory, Inventory models for independent demand, Probabilistic
models and safety stock, Single period model, Fixed period model
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL (PPC) (04 Hours)
Production Systems, Job, Batch, Mass and Continuous production system,
Objectives of PPC, Functions of PPC
HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (04 Hours) Functions of Human Resource
Manager, Training and development, Job evaluation and Merit rating, Wage and
Wage Incentives, Grievance handling, Discipline and welfare
What is Industrial Engineering?
The focus of Industrial Engineering is how to improve processes or design things that are
more efficient and waste less money, time, raw resources, man-power and energy while
following safety standards and regulations. Industrial engineers may use knowledge of
Math's, Physics but also Social Sciences to analyze, design, predict and evaluate the results
and roadblocks of processes and devices.
Historical Development of Industrial
Engineering
• Pre Industrial Revolution Era
• Industrial Revolution
• Scientific Management Phase
• Operations Research
• Automation And Computer Integrated
Manufacturing Phase
Industrial revolution
• Industrial Revolution, in modern history,
the process of change from handicraft
economy to one dominated by industry and
machine manufacturing. These technological
changes introduced novel ways of working
and living and fundamentally transformed
society. This process began in Britain in the
18th century and from there spread to other
parts of the world.
Industrial Revolution
• The main features involved in the Industrial Revolution were
technological, socioeconomic, and cultural. The technological
changes included the following: (1) the use of new basic materials,
chiefly iron and steel, (2) the use of new energy sources, including
both fuels and motive power, such as coal, the steam engine,
electricity, petroleum, and the internal-combustion engine, (3) the
invention of new machines, such as the spinning jenny and the
power loom that permitted increased production with a smaller
expenditure of human energy, (4) a new organization of work
known as the factory system, which entailed increased division of
labour and specialization of function, (5) important developments
in transportation and communication, including the steam
locomotive, steamship, automobile, airplane, telegraph, and radio,
and (6) the increasing application of science to industry.
Cont..
• These technological changes made possible a tremendously
increased use of natural resources and the mass production of
manufactured goods.
Cont..
• The Industrial Revolution was the transition to
new manufacturing processes in Great Britain,
continental Europe, and the United States, that
occurred during the period from around 1760 to
about 1820–1840.
• With each of these three advancements—the
steam engine, the age of science and mass
production, and the rise of digital
technology—the world around us
fundamentally changed.
Cont..
• This process of change (or transition) from a
handicraft economy to a manufacturing
industry that uses machines and new
technologies is what is referred to as
the Industrial Revolution.
• The revolution of industry 5.0 means that humans
Cont.. and machines are working together, improving the
efficiency of industrial production.
Cont..
Introduction
• Industrial Engineering is concerned with the
design, improvement and installation of
integrated systems of men materials and
equipment.
• It draws upon specialized knowledge and skill in
the Mathematical, Physical and Social Sciences
together with the principles and methods of
engineering analysis and design to specify,
predict and evaluate the results to be obtained
from such systems.
Development
Division of labour (Smith, 1776)
• Standardized parts (Whitney, 1800)
• Scientific management (Taylor, 1881)
• Coordinated assembly line (Ford 1913)
• Gantt charts (Gantt, 1916)
• Motion study (the Gilbreths, 1922)
• Quality control (Shewhart, 1924)
• CPM/PERT (Dupont, 1957)
• MRP (Orlicky, 1960)
• CAD
• Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS)
• Computer integrated manufacturing (CIM)
Scientific management theory is a method of improving efficiency in the workforce.
Calculation of productivity:
Labour productivity=Total Product output/Labour Input
Material productivity=Total Product output/Material Input
Capital productivity=output/Capital Input
Total Factor productivity=Net output/(Labour+ Capital) Input
High productivity refers to doing the work in a shortest possible
time with least expenditure on inputs without sacrificing quality and
with minimum wastage of resources.
Productivity Measurement
• The measurement of productivity can be quite direct. Such is the case when productivity
is measured by labor-hours per ton of a specific type of steel. Although labor-hours is a
common measure of input, other measures such as capital (dollars invested), materials
(tons of ore), or energy (kilowatts of electricity) can be used. An example of this can be
summarized in the following equation:
• Productivity = Units produced/Input used:
For example, if units produced = 1,000 and labor-hours used is 250, then:
Single@factor productivity = Units produced/Labor hours used
=1,000/250 = 4 units per labor
• The use of just one resource input to measure productivity, as shown in above Equation
is known as single-factor productivity . However, a broader view of productivity is
multifactor productivity, which includes all inputs (e.g., capital, labor, material, energy).
Multifactor productivity is also known as total factor productivity.
• Multifactor productivity is calculated by combining the input units as shown here:
Multifactor productivity =Output/Labor + Material + Energy + Capital + Miscellaneous
• Mark's Ceramics spent $4000 on a new kiln last year, in the belief that it would cut
energy usage 25% over the old kiln. This kiln is an oven that turns "greenware" into
finished pottery. Mark is concerned that the new kiln requires extra labor hours for
its operation. Mark wants to check the energy savings of the new oven, and also to
look over other measures of their productivity to see if the change really was
beneficial. Mark has the following data to work with:
Numerical
A firm cleans chemical tank cars in the Bay St. Louis area. With standard equipment,
the firm typically cleaned 70 chemical tank cars per month. They utilized 10 gallons of
solvent, and two employees worked 20 days per month, 8 hours a day. The company
decided to switch to a larger cleaning machine. Last April, they cleaned 60 tank cars in
only 15 days. They utilized 12 gallons of solvent, and the two employees worked 6
hours a day.
•1. What was their productivity with the standard equipment?
•2. What is their productivity with the larger machine?
•3. What is the change in productivity?
Martin Manufacturing has implemented several programs to improve its productivity.
They have asked you to evaluate the firm's productivity by comparing this year's
performance with last year's. The following data are available:
Cont..
• Productivity can be Increased
• 1. When production is increased without increase in inputs.
• 2. The same production with decrease in inputs.
• 3. The rate of increase in output is more compared to rate of increase in input.
company produces 160 kg of plastic molded parts of acceptable quality by consuming
200 kg of raw materials for a particular period. For the next period, the output is
doubled (320 kg) by consuming 420 kg of raw material and for the third period, the
output is increased to 400 kg by consuming 400 kg of raw material.
Comments: From the above illustration, it is clear that, for second period, though
production has doubled, productivity has decreased from 80% to 76%, for third, period
production is increased by 150% and correspondingly productivity increased from 80%
to 100%. Thus, Increase in production may or may not increase Productivity.
Problem 2: Munson Performance Auto, Inc., modifies 375 autos per year. The
manager, Adam Munson, is interested in obtaining a measure of overall
performance. He has asked you to provide him with a multifactor measure of last
year’s performance as a benchmark for future comparison. You have assembled the
following data. Resource inputs were labor, 10,000 hours; 500 suspension and
engine modification kits; and energy, 100,000 kilowatt-hours. Average labor cost last
year was $20 per hour, kits cost $1,000 each, and energy costs were $3 per kilowatt-
hour. What do you tell Mr. Munson?
Problem 3: Lake Charles Seafood makes 500 wooden packing boxes for fresh
seafood per day, working in two 10-hour shifts. Due to increased demand, plant
managers have decided to operate three 8-hour shifts instead. The plant is now able
to produce 650 boxes per day.
(i) Calculate the company’s productivity before the change in work rules and after the
change.
(ii) What is the percentage increase in productivity?
(iii) If production is increased to 700 boxes per day, what is the new productivity?
Problem 4: The Miami Central Hotel has 400 rooms. Every day, the housekeepers
clean any room that was occupied the night before. If a guest is checking out of the
hotel, the housekeepers give the room a thorough cleaning to get it ready for the
next guest. This takes 30 minutes. If a guest is staying another night, the
housekeeper only “refreshes” the room, which takes 15 minutes.
Each day, each housekeeper reports for her 6-hour shift, then prepares her cart.
She pushes the cart to her floor and begins work. She usually has to restock the
cart once per day; then she pushes it back to the storeroom at the end of the day
and delivers dirty laundry, etc. Here is a timetable:
(i) Arrive at work and stock cart (0.10 hrs).
(ii) Pushcart to floor (0.10 hrs).
(iii) Take morning break (0.33 hrs).
(iv) Stop for lunch (0.50 hrs).
(v) Restock cart (0.30 hrs).
34
Productivity Index
Productivity Index measures is the ratio of present productivity to base period
productivity
FACTORS INFLUENCING PRODUCTIVITY
______________________________________________________________
A. Controllable Factors (Internal Factors)
1. Product factor: In terms of productivity means the extent to which the product meets
output requirements product is judged by its usefulness. The cost benefit factor of a
product can be enhanced by increasing the benefit at the same cost or by reducing cost for
the same benefit.
2. Plant and equipment: These play a prominent role in enhancing the productivity. The
increased availability of the plant through proper maintenance and reduction of idle
time increases the productivity. Productivity can be increased by paying proper attention
to utilisation, age, modernisation, cost, investments etc.
4. Material and energy: Efforts to reduce materials and energy consumption brings about
considerable improvement in productivity.
1. Selection of quality material and right material.
2. Control of wastage and scrap.
3. Effective stock control.
4. Development of sources of supply.
5. Optimum energy utilisation and energy savings.
6. Work methods: Improving the ways in which the work is done (methods) improves
productivity, work study and industrial engineering techniques and training are the areas
which improve the work methods, which in term enhances the productivity.
2. Natural resources: Manpower, land and raw materials are vital to the productivity
improvement.
38
Causes of Low Productivity
Causes of low productivity and techniques of their elimination
Productivity Improvement Techniques
______________________________________________________________
42
Productivity Improvement Techniques
______________________________________________________________
C) MATERAL BASED
1. Material planning and control
2. Purchasing, logistics
3. Material storage and retrieval
4. Source selection and procurement of quality material
5. Waste elimination.
D) PROCESS BASED
1. Methods engineering and work simplification
2. Job design evaluation, job safety
3. Human factors engineering
43
Productivity Improvement Techniques
______________________________________________________________
(E) PRODUCT BASED
1. Value analysis and value engineering
2. Product diversification
3. Standardisation and simplification
4. Reliability engineering
5. Product mix and promotion.
44
Work Study
• The systematic examination of the method of
carrying on activities so as to improve the effective
use of resources and to set up standards of
performance for the activities being carried out.
• Work study may be defined as the analysis of a job
for the purpose of finding the preferred method of
doing it and determining the standard time to
perform it by the preferred (or given) method.
• Work study, therefore, comprises of two areas of
study: method study (motion study) and time study
(work measurement)
Cont..
• Method study (also sometimes called Work Method Design) is
mostly used to improve the method of doing work. It is
equally applicable to new jobs. When applied to existing jobs
and existing jobs, method study aims to find better methods of
doing the jobs that are economical and safe, require less
human effort, and need shorter make-ready / put-away time.
The better method involves the optimum use of best materials
and appropriate manpower so that work is performed in well
organized manner leading to increased resource utilization,
better quality and lower costs.
• It can therefore be stated that through method study we have a
systematic way of developing human resource effectiveness,
providing high machine and equipment utilization, and making
economical use of materials.
Cont..
Time study, on the other hand, provides the standard
time, that is the time needed by worker to complete a
job by the standard method. Standard times for different
jobs are necessary for proper estimation of
• manpower, machinery and equipment requirements
• daily, weekly or monthly requirement of materials
• production cost per unit as an input to better make or
buy decision
• labour budgets
• worker's efficiency and make incentive wage payments.
Objectives
• To analyze the present method of doing a job,
systematically in order to develop a new and better
method.
• To measure the work content of a job by measuring the
time required to do the job for a qualified worker and
hence to establish standard time.
• To increase the productivity by ensuring the best possible
use of human, machine and material resources and to
achieve best quality product/ service at minimum
possible cost.
• To improve efficiency
Objectives of method study
• To study the existing proposed method of doing any job,
operation or activity.
• To develop an improved method to improve
productivity and to reduce operating costs.
• To reduce excessive material handling or movement and
thereby reduce fatigue to workmen.
• To improve utilization of resources.
• To eliminate wasteful and inefficient motions.
• To standardize work methods or processes, working
conditions , machinery, equipments and tools.
Advantages of method study
• Work simplification
• Improved working method
• Better product quality
• Improved workplace layout
• Improved equipment design
• Better working conditions
• Better material handling
• Improved workflow
Method study
procedure
Select
CONSIDERATIONS FOR SELECTION OF METHOD
STUDY
The job should be selected for the method
study based upon the following considerations:
• 1. Economic aspect
• 2. Technical aspect
• 3. Human aspect
Selection of Job
Cont..
• Economic Aspects: The method study involves cost and time. If sufficient
returns are not attained, the whole exercise will go waste. Thus, the
money spent should be justified by the savings from it.
• Technical Aspects: The method study man should be careful enough to
select a job in which he has the technical knowledge and expertise. A
person selecting a job in his area of expertise is going to do full justice.
• Human Aspects: Human consideration and reactions need to be
accounted for too.
Records
The next step in basic procedure, after selecting the work to be
studied is to record all facts relating to the existing method.
Records are very much useful to make before and after
comparison to assess the effectiveness of the proposed improved
method. The recording techniques are designed to simplify and
standardize the recording work.
Graphical method of recording was originated by Gilberth. In
order to make the presentation of the facts clearly, without any
ambiguity and to enable to grasp them quickly and clearly, it is
useful to use symbols instead of written description.
Symbols for graphical representation
(a) Process Charts
(i) Outline process chart
(ii) Flow process chart(Man type, Material Type and
Equipment type)
(iii) Two handed process type
(iv) Multiple activity chart (Man Machine chart)
(b) Diagrams
(i)Flow diagram (ii) String diagram
(iii) Cycle graph (iv) Chronocycle
(c) Micromotion study
Process Chart Symbols
• Operation: Indicates the main steps in a process, method or
procedure. Usually the part, material or product concerned
is modified or changed during the operation.
• Inspection: Indicates an inspection for quality and / or
check for quantity.
• Transport: Indicates the movement of workers, materials or
equipment from place to place.
• Temporary Storage or Delay: Indicates a delay in the
sequence of events : for example, work waiting between
consecutive operations, or any object laid aside temporarily
without record until required.
Cont..
• Permanent Storage: Indicates a controlled storage
in which material is received into or issued from a
store under some form of authorization; or an item
is retained for reference purposes.
• Combined Activities: Indicates a controlled storage
in which material is received into or issued from a
store under some form of authorization; or an item
is retained for reference purposes.
Cont..
1. Operation
• An operation occurs when an object is intentionally changed in one or more of its characteristics
(physical or chemical). This indicates the main steps in a process, method or procedure.
• An operation always takes the object one stage ahead towards completion.
Examples of operation are:
• Turning, drilling, milling, etc.
• A chemical reaction.
• Welding, brazing and riveting.
• Lifting, loading, unloading.
• Getting instructions from supervisor.
• Taking dictation.
2. Inspection
• An inspection occurs when an object is examined and Compared with standard for quality and quantity.
The inspection examples are:
• Visual observations for finish.
• Count of quantity of incoming material.
• Checking the dimensions.
Cont..
3. Transportation
• A transport indicates the movement of workers, materials or equipment from one
place to another.
• Ex.— Movement of materials from one work station to another.
• Workers travelling to bring tools.
4. Delay
• Delay (Temporary Storage) A delay occurs when the immediate performance of the
next planned thing does not take place.
• Ex.— Work waiting between consecutive operations.
• Workers waiting at tool cribs.
• Operators waiting for instructions from supervisor.
5. Storage
• A storage occurs when the object is kept in an authorized custody and is protected
against unauthorised removal. For example, materials kept in stores to be
distributed to various work centres.
RECORDING TECHNIQUES
According to the nature of the job being studied and the purpose for which the record is
required the techniques fall into following categories:
1. Charts.
2. Diagrams.
3. Templates and models.
OPERATION PROCESS CHART: Gives bird's-eye view of process and records
principal (outline process chart) operations and inspecting.
• Man type
• Material type
• Equipment type
3. MULTIPLE ACTIVITY CHART : Charts activities of men and/or machines on a common
time scale.
the string diagram is drawn exactly on a scale while the flow diagram is
plotted approximately on scale.
Cont..
Cont..
Cycle graph and chrono cycle
• A cycle graph is a record of path of movement usually traced
by a continuous source of light on a photograph. A small
electric bulb is attached to hand, finger or other part of the
body of the operator performing the operation. A photograph is
taken by still camera and the light source shows the path of the
'motion and the path of the photograph is called "cycle graph”.
• The Chronocycle graph is special form of cycle graph in
which the light source is suitably interrupted so that the path
appears as a series of pear-shaped dots the pointed end
indicating the direction of movement and the spacing
indicating the speed of movement.
Work
Measurement
• Work measurement is
the application of
techniques which is
designed to establish
the time for an
average worker to
carry out a specified
manufacturing task
at a defined level of
performance.1
Work Measurement
Most workers are paid for the time they are on the job.
The terms time study and work measurement are often used
interchangeably. Both are concerned with how much time it should take to
complete a unit of work.
Cont.
Cont..
Cont..
The amount of work contained in a given job is referred to as work content. For a given job work content is
measured in terms of man-hours or machine-hours.
Basic Work Content: Which is the minimum time theoretically required to do an operation or job. This cannot
be reduced. Basic work content will result in the following conditions:
Thus, the basic work content represents an ideal condition which is not possible to achieve.
Excess work content: The actual time required to complete an operation or job is more than the basic time in
practical situations. This additional portion of the work content is called excess work content.
TECHNIQUES TO REDUCE WORK CONTENT
• Most workers are paid on the basis of time. The common work shift
is 8 hours per day, and the worker is paid an hourly rate.
• The standard time for a given task is the amount of time that should
be allowed for an average worker to process one unit using the
standard method and working at a normal pace.
• The standard time includes some additional time, called the
allowance, to provide for the worker’s personal needs, fatigue, and
unavoidable delays during the shift.
• The standard time is sometimes referred to as the allowed time,
because it indicates how much time is allowed for the worker to
process each unit so that by the end of the shift a fair day’s workload
has been accomplished, despite the various interruptions that may
occur.
Methods to Determine Time Standards
Performance rating is an evaluation method that considers the effectiveness operator doing
work. Then it will be applied to obtain the normal time. The performance rating of the worker
is important because it helps to quantify the worker during the operation.
Synthetic Rating: The performance rating under this method is established by
comparing observed time of some of the manual elements with those of known time
values of the elements from predetermined motion and time studies (PMTS).
The procedure is to make the time study in a usual manner and then compare the actual
time for the elements with predetermined time values for the same elements.
A ratio is computed between predetermined time value for the element and actual time
value for the element.
This ratio is the performance index or rating factor for the operator for the particular
element. Performance rating factor, (R) is given by:
Objective Rating: In this method, the operator's speed is rated against a single
standard pace which is independent of job difficulty. The observer merely rates speed of
movement or activity, paying no attention to job itself. After the pace rating is made, an
allowance or a secondary adjustment is added to the pace rating to take care of job
difficulty.
Job difficulty is divided into six classes, and percentage is provided for each of these
factors.
The job difficulties as per the founder of this system—M.E. Mundel have been
categorized into six classes as follows:
Under this system, the study time engineer observes and judges how fast the
operator performs the motions involved and also his skill. Hence it is called as
“Skill and Effort Rating”. This system was introduced by Charles E. Bedaux in
1916.
The author did not consider time as basis, but he introduced ‘B’ values (the
efficiency of each work element is estimated in ‘B’ values). ‘B’ values represent
a standard minute which contains (i) work component, and (ii) relaxation
component. Only human effort is measured by this system.
Physiological Evaluation of Performance Level:
Under this method, the performance level of the worker is estimated physiologically.
Many studies have revealed that there is relationship between physical work and
amount of oxygen consumed by the operator. There is change in heart beating rate
depending on the physical work and it is assumed that it is a reliable index to
measure muscular activity.
Thus the oxygen consumed and the heart beat rate depend on the severity of physical
labour. Thus performance level of a worker can be estimated using this correlation
because heart beat rate and oxygen consumption increase when the worker is at
working level. When work ends, recovery begins and the heart rate and oxygen
consumption return to normal resting level.
Elements
Cont..
Example
Element Type M M P M M M M M
Average actual 0.14 0.16 0.30 0.52 0.26 0.45 0.34 0.15
time (minutes)
Elements No. 2 5 8
2. Technological forecasts are concerned with rates of technological progress, which can
result in the birth of exciting new products, requiring new plants and equipment.
Qualitative Methods:
Jury of executive opinion : Under this method, the opinions of a group of high-level experts
or managers, often in combination with statistical models, are pooled to arrive at a group
estimate of demand.
Delphi method: There are three different types of participants in this method decision
makers, staff personnel, and respondents. Decision makers usually consist of a group of 5 to
10 experts who will be making the actual forecast. Staff personnel assist decision makers by
preparing, distributing, collecting, and summarizing a series of questionnaires and survey
results. The respondents are a group of people, often located in different places, whose
judgments are valued. This group provides inputs to the decision makers before the forecast
is made.
Sales force composite : In this approach, each salesperson estimates what sales will be in his
or her region. These forecasts are then reviewed to ensure that they are realistic. Then they
are combined at the district and national levels to reach an overall forecast.
Market survey : This method solicits input from customers or potential customers regarding
future purchasing plans. It can help not only in preparing a forecast but also in improving
product design and planning for new products.
The consumer market survey and sales force composite methods can, however, suffer from
overly optimistic forecasts that arise from customer input.
Quantitative Methods
Five quantitative forecasting methods, all of which use historical data, are described in this
chapter. They fall into two categories:
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential smoothing
4. Trend projection………………………. Time-series models
Moving Averages
A moving-average forecast uses a number of historical actual data values to generate a
forecast. Moving averages are useful if we can assume that market demands will stay
fairly steady over time . A 4-month moving average is found by simply summing the
demand during the past 4 months and dividing by 4.
With each passing month, the most recent month’s data are added to the sum of the
previous 3 months’ data, and the earliest month is dropped. This practice tends to
smooth out short-term irregularities in the data series.
Mathematically, the simple moving average (which serves as an estimate of the next
period’s demand) is expressed as:
3-month moving-average forecast, including a forecast for next
January, for shed sales.
If actual sales in December were 18 (rather than 14), what is the new
January forecast?
When a detectable trend or pattern is present, weights can be used to place more emphasis
on recent values. This practice makes forecasting techniques more responsive to changes
because more recent periods may be more heavily weighted. Choice of weights is somewhat
arbitrary because there is no set formula to determine them. Therefore, deciding which
weights to use requires some experience.
The smoothing constant , a , is generally in the range from .05 to .50 for business
applications. It can be changed to give more weight to recent data (when a is high) or
more weight to past data (when a is low).
High values of a are chosen when the underlying average is likely to change.
Low values of a are used when the underlying average is fairly stable. In picking
a value for the smoothing constant, the objective is to obtain the most accurate
forecast.
Mean Absolute Deviation The first measure of the overall forecast error for a model is
the mean absolute deviation (MAD) . This value is computed by taking the sum of the
absolute values of the individual forecast errors (deviations) and dividing by the
number of periods of data ( n ):
Mean Squared Error The mean squared error (MSE) is a second way of measuring overall
forecast error. MSE is the average of the squared differences between the forecasted
and observed values. Its formula is:
Mean Absolute Percent Error A problem with both the MAD and MSE is that their
values depend on the magnitude of the item being forecast. If the forecast item is measured
in thousands, the MAD and MSE values can be very large. To avoid this problem, we can
use the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) .
To improve our forecast, let us illustrate a more complex exponential smoothing model,
one that adjusts for trend. The idea is to compute an exponentially smoothed average of
the data and then adjust for positive or negative lag in trend. The new formula is:
With trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, estimates for both the average and the
trend are smoothed. This procedure requires two smoothing constants: a for the
average and b for the trend. We then compute the average and trend each period:
STEP 1: Compute F t , the exponentially smoothed forecast average for period t ,
using
STEP 2: Compute the smoothed trend, T t ,
STEP 3: Calculate the forecast including trend, FIT t , by the formula
This technique fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects the
slope of the line into the future for medium- to long-range forecasts. Several mathematical
trend equations can be developed (for example, exponential and quadratic), but in this
section, we will look at linear (straight-line) trends only.
If we decide to develop a linear trend line by a precise statistical method, we can apply the
least-squares method . This approach results in a straight line that minimizes the sum of
the squares of the vertical differences or deviations from the line to each of the actual
observations.
A least-squares line is described in terms of its y -intercept (the height at which it intercepts
the y -axis) and its expected change (slope). If we can compute the y -intercept and slope, we
can express the line with the following equation:
Seasonal Variations in Data
Seasonal variations in data are regular movements in a time series that relate to recurring
events such as weather or holidays. Demand for winter clothes, for example, peaks during
cold winter months.
Demand for umbrella may be highest in rainy season. Seasonality may be applied to hourly,
daily, weekly, monthly, or other recurring patterns.
Step 1: Find the average historical demand each season (or month in this case) by summing
the demand for that month in each year and dividing by the number of years of data
available. For example, if, in January, we have seen sales of 8, 6, and 10 over the past 3
years, average January demand equals (8 + 6 + 10)/3 = 8 units.
Step 2: Compute the average demand over all months by dividing the total average annual
demand by the number of seasons. For example, if the total average demand for a year is
120 units and there are 12 seasons (each month), the average monthly demand is 120/12 = 10
units.
Step 3: Compute a seasonal index for each season by dividing that month’s historical average
Demand.
Step 4: Estimate next year’s total annual demand.
Step 5: Divide this estimate of total annual demand by the number of seasons, then multiply
it by the seasonal index for each month. This provides the seasonal forecast .
Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts: One way to monitor forecasts to ensure that they
are performing well is to use a tracking signal.
A tracking signal is a measurement of how well a forecast is predicting actual values.
As forecasts are updated every week, month, or quarter, the newly available demand
data are compared to the forecast values.
The tracking signal is computed as the cumulative error divided by the mean absolute
deviation
(MAD) :
Positive tracking signals indicate that demand is greater than forecast. Negative signals
mean that demand is less than forecast. A good tracking signal—that is, one with a low
cumulative error—has about as much positive error as it has negative error
One MAD is equivalent to approximately .8 standard deviations, ±2 MADs = ± 1.6
standard deviations, ± 3 MADs = ± 2.4 standard deviations, and ± 4 MADs = ± 3.2
standard deviations.
This fact suggests that for a forecast to be “in control,” 89% of the errors are expected to
fall within ± 2 MADs, 98% within ± 3 MADs, or 99.9%
within ± 4 MADs.
Associative Forecasting Methods: Regression and
Correlation Analysis:
Associative forecasting models usually consider several variables that are related to the
quantity being predicted. Once these related variables have been found, a statistical model
is built and used to forecast the item of interest.
This approach is more powerful than the time-series methods that use only the historical
values for the forecast variable.
To measure the accuracy of the regression estimates, we must compute the standard error
of the estimate , Sy, x . This computation is called the standard deviation of the
regression: It measures the error from the dependent variable, y , to the regression line,
rather than to the mean.
Equation (4-14) is a used for computing the standard deviation of an arithmetic mean:
Correlation Coefficients for Regression Lines:
regression lines describe the relationships among variables. The regression equation shows
how one variable relates to the value and changes in another variable.
Another way to evaluate the relationship between two variables is to compute the
coefficient of correlation . This measure expresses the degree or strength of the linear
relationship (but note that correlation does not necessarily imply causality). Usually
identified as r , the coefficient of correlation can be any number between +1 and -1 .Figure
To compute r , we use much of the same data needed earlier to calculate a and b for the
regression line. The rather lengthy equation for r is:
Another measure does exist. It is called the coefficient of determination and is simply the square
of the coefficient of correlation—namely, r 2 . The value of r 2 will always be a positive number
in the range 0 to 1.
The coefficient of determination is the percent of variation in the dependent variable ( y ) that
is explained by the regression equation.
the value of r 2 is .81, indicating that 81% of the total variation is
explained by the regression equation.
Forecasting
Cont..
Types of Forecasting
• Long term: covers period of 5-10 years
• Shor term: covers a period of 3 month,6
month or one year.
Exponential Smoothing
solution
Least square
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
1. The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units, respectively. The
last four forecasts (for the same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units, respectively.
Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these four weeks.
2. Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein "hamburger" restaurants
in northern Louisiana. Sales figures and profits for the stores are provided in the table
below. Sales are given in millions of dollars; profits are in hundreds of thousands of
dollars. Calculate a regression line for the data. What is your forecast of profit for a
store with sales of $24 million? $30 million?
Store Profits Sales
1 14 6
2 11 3
3 15 5
4 16 5
5 24 15
6 28 18
7 22 17
8 21 12
9 26 15
10 43 20
11 34 14
12 9 5
PLANT LOCATION AND LAYOUT
• Factors affecting location decisions, Methods of evaluating location alternative, Layout
types, Work cells, Repetitive and product-oriented layout, Computerized layout design
procedure .
• IDENTIFYING A SITE
The main considerations in choosing a site are land, transportation, zoning and many
others. When identifying a site I it is important to consider seeing if the company plans
on growing at this location. If so, the firm must consider whether or not location is
suitable for expansion. There are many decisions that go into choosing exactly where a
firm will establish its operations. First, a company must determine the driving factors that
will influence which areas are suitable locations
Cont..
• LOCATION FACTORS
Location factors involve many factors that influence the revenues, costs or both and
they affect profits.
In general, location factors are grouped into:
1. Market Related Factors: Location of demand and competition.
2. Tangible Cost Factors: Labor, materials, transportation utilities, site cost, taxes,
etc.
3. Intangible Factors: Legal aspects, environmental factors, climate; schools, hospital
and recreational facilities, community attitude, etc.
COMPARISON BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL LOCATIONS
FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE SELECTION OF PLANT LOCATION
Demand Probability
30 0.2
40 0.2
50 0.3
60 0.2
70 0.1
Should the firm add safety stock? If so, how much safety stock should be added?
INVENTORY
Inventory generally refers to the materials in stock. It is also called the idle resource of an
enterprise. Inventories represent those items which are either stocked for sale or they are
in the process of manufacturing or they are in the form of materials which are yet to be
utilized.
The objective of inventory management is to strike a balance between inventory investment and
customer service
Functions of Inventory
Inventory can serve several functions that add flexibility to a firm’s operations. The four
functions
of inventory are:
1. To provide a selection of goods for anticipated customer demand and to separate the firm
from fluctuations in that demand. Such inventories are typical in retail establishments.
2. To decouple various parts of the production process . For example, if a firm’s supplies
fluctuate, extra inventory may be necessary to decouple the production process from suppliers.
3. To take advantage of quantity discounts , because purchases in larger quantities may reduce
the cost of goods or their delivery.
4. To hedge against inflation and upward price changes.
Types of Inventory
To accommodate the functions of inventory, firms maintain four types of inventories: (1) raw
material inventory, (2) work-in-process inventory, (3) maintenance/repair/operating supply
(MRO) inventory, and (4) finished-goods inventory.
Holding, Ordering, and Setup Costs: Holding costs are the costs associated with
holding or “carrying” inventory over time. Therefore, holding costs also include
obsolescence and costs related to storage, such as insurance, extra staffing, and
interest payments.
Setup cost is the cost to prepare a machine or process for manufacturing an order.
This includes time and labor to clean and change tools or holders.
Inventory Models for Independent Demand: In this section, we introduce three
inventory models that address two important questions:
when to order and how much to order. These independent demand models are:
1. Basic economic order quantity (EOQ) model
2. Production order quantity model
3. Quantity discount model
INVENTORY CONTROL-TERMINOLOGY
1. Demand: It is the number of items (products) required per unit of time. The demand may
be either deterministic or probabilistic in nature.
2. Order Cycle: The time period between two successive orders is called order cycle.
3. Lead Time: The length of time between placing an order and receipt of items is called lead
time.
4. Safety Stock: It is also called buffer stock or minimum stock. It is the stock or inventory
needed to account for delays in materials supply and to account for sudden increase in demand
due to rush orders.
5. Inventory Turnover: If the company maintains inventories equal to 3 months consumption.
It means that inventory turnover is 4 times a year, i.e., the entire inventory is used up and
replaced 4 times a year.
6. Re-order Level (ROL): It is the point at which the replenishment action is initiated.
When the stock level reaches R.O.L., the order is placed for the item.
7. Re-order Quantity: This is the quantity of material (items) to be ordered at the reorder
level. Normally this quantity equals the economic order quantity.
The Basic Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model
The economic order quantity (EOQ) model is one of the most commonly used inventory-
control techniques.
This technique is relatively easy to use but is based on several assumptions:
1. Demand for an item is known, reasonably constant, and independent of decisions for
other items.
2. Lead time—that is, the time between placement and receipt of the order—is known and
consistent.
3. Receipt of inventory is instantaneous and complete. In other words, the inventory from
an order arrives in one batch at one time.
4. Quantity discounts are not possible.
5. The only variable costs are the cost of setting up or placing an order (setup or ordering
cost) and the cost of holding or storing inventory over time (holding or carrying cost).
6. Stockouts (shortages) can be completely avoided if orders are placed at the right time.
The objective of most inventory models is to minimize total costs.
Here, significant costs are setup (or ordering) cost and holding (or carrying) cost. All other
costs, such as the cost of the inventory itself, are constant. Thus, if we minimize the sum of
setup and holding costs, we will also be minimizing total costs.
With the EOQ model, the optimal order quantity will occur at a point where the total
setup cost is equal to the total holding cost.
Q. A company manufactures Product Y. They would like to reduce its inventory cost
by determining the optimal number of units. The annual demand of product is 1,000
units; the setup or ordering cost is $10 per order; and the holding cost per unit per
year is $.50.
INVENTORY
Reorder Points: Now that we have decided how much to order, we will look at the second
inventory question, when to order. Simple inventory models assume that receipt of an order
is instantaneous. In other words, they assume (1) that a firm will place an order when the
inventory level for that particular item reaches zero and (2) that it will receive the ordered
items immediately.
However, the time between placement and receipt of an order, called lead time , or delivery
time, can be as short as a few hours or as long as months. Thus, the when to-order decision
is usually expressed in terms of a reorder point (ROP) —the inventory level at which an order
should be placed
This equation for ROP assumes that demand during lead time and lead time itself are
constant . When this is not the case, extra stock, often called safety stock ( ss ) , should
be added. The reorder point with safety stock then becomes:
Q. An Apple store has a demand (D) for 8,000 iPhones per year. The firm operates a 250-
day working year. On average, delivery of an order takes 3 working days, but has been
known to take as long as 4 days. The store wants to calculate the reorder point without a
safety stock and then with a one-day safety stock.
As mentioned earlier in this section, the total annual variable inventory cost is the
sum of setup and holding costs:
Production Order Quantity Model: This model is applicable under two situations:
(1) when inventory continuously flows or builds up over a period of time after an order
has been placed or
(2) when units are produced and sold simultaneously. Under these circumstances, we take
into account daily production (or inventory-flow) rate and daily demand rate.
Because this model is especially suitable for the production environment, it is commonly
called the production order quantity model . It is useful when inventory continuously
builds up over time, and traditional economic order quantity assumptions are valid.
Q. Nathan Manufacturing, Inc., makes and sells specialty hubcaps for the retail automobile
aftermarket. Nathan’s forecast for its wire-wheel hubcap is 1,000 units next year, with an
average daily demand of 4 units. However, the production process is most efficient at 8 units
per day. So the company produces 8 per day but uses only 4 per day. The company wants to
solve for the optimum number of units per order. ( Note: This plant schedules production of
this hubcap only as needed, during the 250 days per year the shop operates.)[POQ].
Q. Emarpy Appliance is a company that produces all kinds of major appliances. Bud
Banis, the president of Emarpy, is concerned about the production policy for the
company’s bestselling refrigerator. The annual demand has been about 8,000 units
each year, and this demand has been constant throughout the year. The production
capacity is 200 units per day. Each time production starts, it costs the company $120
to move materials into place, reset the assembly line, and clean the equipment. The
holding cost of a refrigerator is $50 per year. The current production plan calls for 400
refrigerators to be produced in each production run. Assume there are 250 working
days per year.
The 120 quantity and the 1,500 quantity are called price-break quantities because they
represent the first order amount that would lead to a new lower price. As always,
management must decide when and how much to order.
As with other inventory models, the objective is to minimize total cost. Because the unit cost
for the second discount in Table 12.2 is the lowest, one wants to order 1,500 units. Placing an
order for that quantity, however, even with the greatest discount price, may not minimize total
inventory cost. This is because holding cost increases.
Thus, the major tradeoff when considering quantity discounts is between reduced product
cost and increased holding cost . When we include the cost of the product, the equation for
the total annual inventory cost can be calculated as follows:
we identify all possible order quantities that could be the best solution. we calculate
the total cost of all possible best order quantities, and the least expensive order
quantity is selected.
STEP 1: Starting with the lowest possible purchase price in a quantity discount schedule and
working toward the highest price, keep calculating Q* until the first feasible EOQ is found. The
first feasible EOQ is a possible best order quantity, along with all price-break quantities for all
lower prices.
STEP 2: Calculate the total annual cost TC for each of the possible best order quantities
determined in Step 1. Select the quantity that has the lowest total cost.
Q. Chris Beehner Electronics stocks toy remote control flying drones. Recently, the store has
been offered a quantity discount schedule for these drones. This quantity schedule was shown
in Table 12.2 . Furthermore, setup cost is $200 per order, annual demand is 5,200 units, and
annual inventory carrying charge as a percent of cost, I , is 28%. What order quantity will
minimize the total inventory cost?
Q. The catering manager of La Vista Hotel, Lisa Ferguson, is disturbed by the amount of
silverware she is losing every week. Last Friday night, when her crew tried to set up for a
banquet for 500 people, they did not have enough knives. She decides she needs to
order some more silverware, but wants to take advantage of any quantity discounts her
vendor will offer.
For a small order (2,000 or fewer pieces), her vendor quotes a price of $1.80/piece.
If she orders 2,001–5,000 pieces, the price drops to $1.60/piece.
5,001–10,000 pieces brings the price to $1.40 piece, and
10,001 and above reduces the price to $1.25.
Lisa’s order costs are $200 per order, her annual holding costs are 5%, and the annual
demand is 45,000 pieces. For the best option: What is the optimal order quantity?
What is the annual holding cost?
What is the annual ordering (setup) cost?
What are the annual costs of the silverware itself with an optimal order quantity?
What is the total annual cost, including ordering, holding, and purchasing the silverware?
Probabilistic Models and Safety Stock: The following inventory models apply when
product demand is not known but can be specified by means of a probability distribution.
These types of models are called probabilistic models. Probabilistic models are a real-world
adjustment because demand and lead time won’t always be known and constant.
In inventory management, service level is the expected probability of not hitting a stock-
out during the next replenishment cycle or the probability of not losing sales.
DETERMINING SAFETY STOCK WITH PROBABILISTIC DEMAND AND
CONSTANT LEAD TIME
Q . David Rivera Optical has determined that its reorder point for eyeglass frames is 50 (d * L)
units. Its carrying cost per frame per year is $5, and stockout (or lost sale) cost is $40 per frame.
The store has experienced the following probability distribution for inventory demand during
the lead time (reorder period). The optimum number of orders per year is six.
All three models assume that demand and lead time are independent variables
Demand Is Variable and Lead Time Is Constant:
Cost of ordering Rs. 100.
Single-Period Model
A single-period inventory model describes a situation in which one order is placed for a
product. At the end of the sales period, any remaining product has little or no value.
This is a typical problem for Christmas trees, seasonal goods, bakery goods,
newspapers, and magazines. (Indeed, this inventory issue is often called the “newsstand
problem.”) In other words, even though items at a newsstand are ordered weekly or
daily, they cannot be held over and used as inventory in the next sales period.
So our decision is how much to order at the beginning of the period. Because the exact
demand for such seasonal products is never known, we consider a probability
distribution related to demand. If the normal distribution is assumed, and we stocked
and sold an average (mean) of 100 Christmas trees each season, then there is a 50%
chance we would stock out and a 50% chance we would have trees left over.
To determine the optimal stocking policy for trees before the season begins, we also
need to know the standard deviation and consider these two marginal costs:
Q. Chris Ellis’s newsstand, just outside the Smithsonian subway station in Washington,
DC, usually sells 120 copies of the Washington Post each day. Chris believes the sale of
the Post is normally distributed, with a standard deviation of 15 papers. He pays 70 cents
for each paper, which sells for $1.25. The Post gives him a 30-cent credit for each unsold
paper. He wants to determine how many papers he should order each day and the
stockout risk for that quantity.
Fixed-Period ( P ) Systems
The inventory models that we have considered so far are fixed-quantity, or Q , systems . That
is, the same fixed amount is added to inventory every time an order for an item is placed.
We saw that orders are event triggered. When inventory decreases to the reorder point
(ROP), a new order for Q units is placed.
To use the fixed-quantity model, inventory must be continuously monitored. This requires
a perpetual inventory system . Every time an item is added to or withdrawn from inventory;
records must be updated to determine whether the ROP has been reached.
In a fixed-period system (also called a periodic review, or P system ), on the other hand,
inventory is ordered at the end of a given period. Then, and only then, is on-hand
inventory counted. Only the amount necessary to bring total inventory up to a prespecified
target level ( T ) is ordered.
Fixed-period systems have several of the same assumptions as the basic EOQ fixed-
quantity system:
◆ The only relevant costs are the ordering and holding costs.
• Job Analysis: It is the process of studying and collecting information relating to the
operations and responsibilities of a specific job. The immediate products of this analysis
are job descriptions and job specifications.
• Job description: It is an organized, factual statement of the duties and responsibilities of
a specific job. In brief, it should tell what is to be done, how it is to be done, and why. It is
a standard of function, in that it defines the appropriate and authorized content of a job.
• Job specification: It is a statement of the minimum acceptable human qualities necessary
to perform a job properly. It is a standard of personnel and designates the qualities
required for acceptable performance.
• Job Evaluation: It is a systematic and orderly process of determining the worth of a
Job in relation to other jobs. The objective of this process is to determine the correct
rate of pay.
OBJECTIVES OF JOB EVALUATION
• To establish a sound wage and salary system by determining the worth of each job
in the factory in relation to various factors like skill required, effort and
responsibility involved
• To eliminate the wage inequalities
• To establish a general wage level for a given factory
• To clearly define the line of authority and responsibility
• To formulate an appropriate and uniform wage structure
• To provide a sound base for recruitment, selection, promotion and transfer of
employees
• To identify the training needs of the employees so as to prepare them for future
positions
• A sound base for individual performance measurement
• To promote a good employee-employer relations
PROCEDURE FOR JOB EVALUATION
• Ranking System: In this system, jobs are ranked in terms of their importance (with
respect to level of duties and responsibilities) from the lowest to the highest. For
ranking job is considered as a whole and it is not broken down into various elements
or tasks. The rank is decided by the committee. This is the easiest and most simple
method.
• Job Classification System: The job classification system is the process of allocating
jobs to grades which are predefined. The grade differences are defined in terms of
differences in the levels of duties, responsibilities and requirements of special skills.
• Factor Comparison Method: It is a qualitative method of job evaluation. This
method involves the Detailed analysis of the jobs which are then ranked in respect of
predetermined jobs. Five factors are considered for evaluation of jobs. They are:
1. Mental effort.
2. Skill requirement.
3. Physical requirement.
4. Responsibility.
5. Working conditions
Cont..
• Point Rating Method: This the most popular and quantitative method designed by
Merill. R. Lott. This method evaluates jobs based on the carefully selected factors
such as education, experience, physical effort, responsibility for machines and
materials which are common to majority of the jobs.
• MERIT RATING : Job evaluation evaluates the job and the merit rating assess the
worth of a person performing the job. Merit rating is also called the performance
appraisal. It evaluates, controls and reviews the performance. Both job evaluation:
and performance appraisal are aimed at systematically determining the wage rates
paid to the employees.
DIFFERENCE BEWEEN MERIT RATING AND JOB EVALUATION
Rating or job/Employees: Job ·evaluation is related with the rating of the job whereas
merit rating is a systematic
process or evaluation of the capacities and abilities of the man doing the job.
Purpose: The purpose of the job evaluation is to fix wages for the jobs by considering
certain factors such as skill, responsibility etc. In case of merit rating, the purpose is to
evaluate the employee for the purpose of promotion, training, pay increase or
incentives etc.
Job difference/Individual differences: Job evaluation considers the differences in
jobs whereas merit rating recognizes the individual differences.
Objectives/Subjective Qualities: The type of factors to be considered are objective in
case of job evaluation, whereas in case of merit rating subjective qualities are
considered.
Performance of individual versus job: Job evaluation becomes the basis of
determining wages whereas merit rating is w1dertaken to find out the efficiency of the
individual for doing specific jobs.
Test of worth versus merit: In job evaluation, an attempt is made to know the worth
of a job in terms of certain factors such as responsibility and effort (mental as well as
physical). Merit rating identifies the capacity and capability of an individual for doing
specific job.
Uses: Job evaluation is meant for determining the wages on an employee. On the other
hand, merit rating is utilized for placement and training etc.
Wage and Wage Incentives
Wages: These are the payments made by the employer to the efforts put in by
the workers towards production. A wage determines the standard of living and it
should represent a fair return for the effort of the worker and also wages should
be able to satisfy the primary and secondary needs of the workers. They should be
enough to provide him a reasonable standard of living.
FACTORS INFLUENCING WAGE SYSTEM
• INCENTIVE PLANS
Differential piece rate system
• (i) Taylor's Differential piece rate system
• (ii) Merrick's Differential piece rate system
Time and piece rate system
• Gantt task and bonus scheme
Premium bonus schemes
• (i) Halsey plan
• (ii) Rowan plan
• (iii) Bedaux plan
Efficiency based plans
• (i) Emerson's efficiency plan
Group incentive· Scheme
• (i) Scanlon Plan
• (ii) Priestman Production Bonus
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..
Cont..