Presentation Climate Vul

National Fishery and Aquatic Life Research Center
(NFALRC)
Vulnerability of the fishery-based households to the

impact of climate change in Rift valley lakes of Ethiopia:
(Hawassa & Chamo)
Hiwot Teshome, Esayas Alemayehu & Abebe Cheffo
July 1,2015
Holeta
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Introduction
The natural climatic variability, compounded with climate change will

adversely affect millions of livelihoods around the world (IPCC, 2007).
The rural communities in the developing countries are expected to be

affected more due to;
Extensive dependence on climate sensitive livelihood options,
Limited adaptive capacity to adapt to the changes (UNFCCC,
2009).
Especially the poor households in developing countries are suffering

a lot from the consequences of the change.
Therefore, they have been trying to cop-up with the problem to

maintain their livelihoods. Some fail to maintain this and are seeking
for emergency aid from external bodies.
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Introduction
(NMS, 2007) revealed that in Ethiopian the average minimum

temperature
Increased by about 0.250c every ten years.

The average annual max temp. increased by about 0.1 0c
In addition, Very high rainfall variability over the past 50 years
Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its symptoms

and impacts vary locally, so do the adaptation capacities,
preferences, and strategies.
Therefore, effective planning for climate change adaptation

programming requires;
An assessment of local vulnerabilities

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Introduction
to bridge the gap between community needs and priorities at the

local level, and policy processes at the higher level
Vulnerability assessment - ranges from local/households level to

global (Teso et al., 2012)
Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze vulnerability of the

fishery-based households to the impact of climate change at
local/household level,
Assess the existing mitigation mechanisms by fishery-based

households
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Methods
Primary data were collected using structural questionnaire,
participatory appraisal (PA) and focus group discussion (FGD)
The vulnerability index developed by the IPCC (2012):

vulnerability is the net effect of adaptive capacity (socio-
economic) and sensitivity/exposure (biophysical).
Therefore:
Vulnerability= Adaptive capacity- (sensitivity+ exposure)
The vulnerability assessment approach via indicator method

constitutes both biophysical and socioeconomic indicators of fishery-
based households
Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to weight the vulnerability

indicators 5
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Methods
PCA starts by specifying each variable normalized by its mean and
standard deviation.
𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = o𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 - 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛

s𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 d𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 n�
SPSS V-16 was used for assigning the weights for each indicators
The loadings from the first component of PCA are used as the
weights for the indicators, The weights assigned for each
indicator varies between -1 and +1
The normalized variables are then multiplied with the assigned

weights to construct the indices Where, ‘I’ is the respective index value
‘bi’ is the loadings from first component
‘a’ is the indicator value
‘x’ is the mean indicator value
‘s’ is the standard deviation of the indicators 6
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Methods
Table 1. Vulnerability Indicators, description and units of measurement used in vulnerability analysis
Determinants of vulnerability Vulnerability Indictors Description of indictors Hypothesized relationship
between indicators and
vulnerability
Adaptive capacity Wealth Off-fishing income (dummy) The higher percentage of

households having off-fishing
Remittance and gift (dummy) income, Remittance and gift, ,
ownership of livestock, the
lesser vulnerability
Ownership of livestock
(dummy)
Institutions and infrastructure Microfinance (dummy) The higher percentage of the

All-weather road (dummy) household access to
Access to electricity (dummy) infrastructure, extension
Telephone service (dummy) services, health care and coping
Access to training (dummy) mechanisms the lesser the
Access to extension services vulnerability
(dummy)
Access t health service (dummy)
Coping mechanisms (dummy)
Sensitivity Extreme climate Climate effect (dummy) The higher the effect, the more
vulnerable
Exposure Change in climate Change in temperature Increasing temperature,

(category) increasing vulnerability 7
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Results
Figure 1 Climate change coping mechanisms by fishery-based households
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Results
Table 2. Vulnerability indicators of the first principal component
Vulnerability indictors Factor scores

Off-fishing income 0.389
Livestock ownership 0.263
All-weather roads -0.159
Access to electricity -0.072
Access to telephone -0.018
services
Access to training in fishery 0.098
Access to health services -0.001
Access to extension services -0.67
Microfinance 0.007
Climate change trend 0.106
Climate effect on fishery -0.041
Coping mechanisms 0.299

Gift and remittances -0.36
Cumulative proportion 73.21% 9
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Results
To compute the vulnerability index, indicators of adaptive capacity,

which are positively associated with the FPC analysis were employed
Indicators of sensitivity and exposure, which are negatively

associated with the principal component analysis, were also used.
Thus the variable considered in the equation include;

Livestock ownership
Off-fishing income
Access to training
Access to microfinance
Because adaptive capacity is considered as positively
contributing to the reduction of vulnerability
The larger the factor score ---the more important variable

• Contributes more to the household’s vulnerability. 10
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Results
The vulnerability assessment was done at household level
across two study sites
Households were classified into three categories based on

the vulnerability indices:
Less vulnerable households: are those in a vulnerable

situation but can still cope;
Moderately vulnerable households: are those that need

urgent but temporary assistance in case of shock and
stresses;
The highly vulnerable are those households that are

almost at a point of no return.
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Results
Table 3 Classification of fishery-based household according to the range of their vulnerability index
Vulnerability Household Vulnerability Percentage of

category situation index HH
Highly Emergency level −0.9 to −3.5 6.6
vulnerable HHs
Moderately Needs urgent but −1.0 to +1.0 74.5
vulnerable temporary
external
assistance to
recover
Less vulnerable In a vulnerable +1.1 to +3.0 18.9
situation but still
able to cope
Total 100
(Source: Opiyo et al., 2014)

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Results
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Arbaminch Hwassa
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
Figure 2. Vulnerability indices of the two study sites
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Conclusions and Recommendation
The net effect of adaptation, exposure and sensitivity is positive for

Hawassa but negative for Arbaminch.
It indicates that Arbaminch is relatively vulnerable than Hwassa
The high vulnerability is associated with

• low access to infrastructure, extension services, training
and microfinance services
Lesser vulnerability is associated with good access to

infrastructure and other services.
Therefore:
Vulnerability of the fishery-based livelihood to the negative

impacts of climate differs among localities implying that a need
for policy intervention should consider spatial dimension
14
14
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National Fishery and Aquatic Life Research Center

Vulnerability of the fishery-based households to the

Hiwot Teshome, Esayas Alemayehu & Abebe Cheffo

The natural climatic variability, compounded with climate change will

The rural communities in the developing countries are expected to be

Especially the poor households in developing countries are suffering

Therefore, they have been trying to cop-up with the problem to

(NMS, 2007) revealed that in Ethiopian the average minimum

Increased by about 0.250c every ten years.

Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its symptoms

Therefore, effective planning for climate change adaptation

An assessment of local vulnerabilities

to bridge the gap between community needs and priorities at the

Vulnerability assessment - ranges from local/households level to

Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze vulnerability of the

Assess the existing mitigation mechanisms by fishery-based

The vulnerability index developed by the IPCC (2012):

Vulnerability= Adaptive capacity- (sensitivity+ exposure)

The vulnerability assessment approach via indicator method

Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to weight the vulnerability

𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = o𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 - 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛

The normalized variables are then multiplied with the assigned

Adaptive capacity Wealth Off-fishing income (dummy) The higher percentage of

Institutions and infrastructure Microfinance (dummy) The higher percentage of the

Exposure Change in climate Change in temperature Increasing temperature,

Figure 1 Climate change coping mechanisms by fishery-based households

Vulnerability indictors Factor scores

Access to health services -0.001

Access to extension services -0.67

Coping mechanisms 0.299

To compute the vulnerability index, indicators of adaptive capacity,

Indicators of sensitivity and exposure, which are negatively

Thus the variable considered in the equation include;

The larger the factor score ---the more important variable

Households were classified into three categories based on

Less vulnerable households: are those in a vulnerable

Moderately vulnerable households: are those that need

The highly vulnerable are those households that are

Vulnerability Household Vulnerability Percentage of

(Source: Opiyo et al., 2014)

Figure 2. Vulnerability indices of the two study sites

Conclusions and Recommendation

The net effect of adaptation, exposure and sensitivity is positive for

It indicates that Arbaminch is relatively vulnerable than Hwassa

The high vulnerability is associated with

Lesser vulnerability is associated with good access to

Vulnerability of the fishery-based livelihood to the negative

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