Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
Scribd
Upload
42 views

Lesson 8.2 - Using Statistical Experiments

The document discusses conducting simulations to estimate probabilities in real-world scenarios. It provides examples of designing simulations using random numbers and calculating theoretical and experimental probabilities. Key steps include determining possible outcomes, assigning random numbers to represent probabilities, running trials, and comparing experimental results to theoretical probabilities.

Uploaded by

exltures
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
42 views

Lesson 8.2 - Using Statistical Experiments

The document discusses conducting simulations to estimate probabilities in real-world scenarios. It provides examples of designing simulations using random numbers and calculating theoretical and experimental probabilities. Key steps include determining possible outcomes, assigning random numbers to represent probabilities, running trials, and comparing experimental results to theoretical probabilities.

Uploaded by

exltures
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 24

Essential Question

How can a sample accurately You Need: Attendance


represent the greater population? __/ students
Copybook, pen, pencil, calculator

Lesson Objective
4 January 2023
Collect and analyze Lesson 8.2 – Using Statistical Experiments
data by conducting Warm up
simulations of real-
life situations. Determine whether the situation calls for a
survey, an experiment, or an observational study.
Explain.
.
Success Criteria MOVIES A production studio played a movie for
I can design a a test audience and watched their reactions.
simulation. AUTHORS At a library, every 10th person is
asked some questions about their favorite
I can conduct and author.
evaluate a simulation.
I can summarize data
from a simulation. How can a simulation help us predict the outcomes
of a real-world scenario?
Over Lesson 8–1

TELEVISION The management of a detention center


alters the colors of their walls then compares the
behaviors of their kids with the kids where the colors
were not changed. Determine whether the situation
describes a survey, an observational study, or an
experiment. Explain your reasoning.
A. observational study; the kids are unaffected by the
study
B. observational study; the kids are affected by the
study
C. experiment; the kids are divided into two groups
where one group is affected by the study
D. experiment; the kids are divided into two groups but
neither group is affected by the study
Over Lesson 8–1

COLLEGE Mariana surveyed a random sample of 20%


of the senior class about their college plans. She found
that 18 seniors planned to go to an out-of-state college.
What is the most reasonable inference about the
number of seniors s in the school who plan to go to an
out-of-state college?
A. s = 36

B. s = 90

C. s = 180

D. s = 360
Mathematical Practices
1 Make sense of problems.
2 Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
3 Construct viable arguments.
4 Model with mathematics.
Content Standards
S.IC.2 Decide if a specified model is consistent with
results from a given data-generating process, e.g.,
using simulation.
S.IC.5 Use data from a randomized experiment to
compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if
differences between parameters are significant.
You calculated simple probability.

• Collect and analyze data by conducting


simulations of real-life situations.
• Use data to compare theoretical and
experimental probabilities.
• simulation
• probability model
• theoretical probability
• experimental probability
• relative frequency
Design a Simulation

SOFTBALL Mandy is a pitcher on the softball


team. Last season, 70% of her pitches were strikes.
Design a simulation to estimate the probability that
Mandy’s next pitch is a strike.

Step 1
There are two possible outcomes: strike and no strike
(a ball). Use Mandy’s expectation of strikes to calculate
the theoretical probability of each outcome.
Design a Simulation

Step 2
We can use the random number generator on a
graphing calculator. Assign the integers 1-10 to
accurately represent the probability data.

Step 3
A trial will represent one pitch. The simulation can
consist of any number of trials. We will use 50.
SCHOOL BUS Larry’s bus is late 60% of the time.
Design a simulation that can be used to estimate the
probability that his bus is late.
SCHOOL BUS Larry’s bus is late 60% of the time.
Design a simulation that can be used to estimate the
probability that his bus is late.
A. Use a random number generator for 50 trials
with integers 1 through 10. 1-6: the bus is late;
7-10: the bus is not late.
B. Use a random number generator for 50 trials with
integers 1 through 10. 1-6: the bus is not late;
7-10: the bus is late.
C. Flip a coin for 50 trials. heads: the bus is late;
tails: the bus is not late.
D. Roll a die for 50 trials. 1-4: the bus is late;
5-6: the bus is not late.
Design a Simulation by Using Random Numbers

PIZZA A survey of Longmeadow High School


students found that 30% preferred cheese pizza,
30% preferred pepperoni, 20% preferred peppers
and onions, and 20% preferred sausage. Design
a simulation that can be used to estimate the
probability that a Longmeadow High School
student prefers each of these choices.

Step 1 Possible Outcomes


Theoretical Probability
Cheese
30%
Pepperoni
30%
Peppers and onions
Design a Simulation by Using Random Numbers

Step 2 We assume a student’s preferred pizza type


will fall into one of these four categories.
Step 3 Use the random number generator on your
calculator. Assign the ten integers 0–9 to
accurately represent the probability data.
The actual numbers chosen to represent the
outcomes do not matter.
Outcome
Represented by
Cheese 0, 1, 2
Pepperoni 3, 4, 5
Peppers and onions 6, 7
Sausage 8, 9
Design a Simulation by Using Random Numbers

Step 4 A trial will consist of selecting a student at


random and recording his or her pizza
preference. The simulation will consist of
20 trials.
PETS A survey of Mountain Ridge High School
students found that 20% wanted fish as pets, 40%
wanted a dog, 30% wanted a cat, and 10% wanted a
turtle. Which assignment of the ten integers 0–9
accurately reflects this data for a random number
simulation?
PETS A survey of Mountain Ridge High School
students found that 20% wanted fish as pets, 40%
wanted a dog, 30% wanted a cat, and 10% wanted a
turtle. Which assignment of the ten integers 0–9
accurately reflects this data for a random number
simulation?
A. Fish: 0, 1, 2 B. Fish: 0, 1
Dog: 3, 4, 5, 6 Dog: 2, 3, 4,
5
Cat: 7, 8 Cat: 6, 7
Turtle: 9 Turtle: 8, 9
C. Fish: 0, 1 D. Fish: 0, 1
Dog: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Dog: 2, 3, 4,
5
Cat: 7, 8 Cat: 6, 7, 8
Turtle: 9 Turtle: 9
Conduct and Evaluate a Simulation

SOFTBALL Mandy is a pitcher on her high school


softball team. Last season, 70% of her pitches were
strikes. Conduct the simulation that can be used to
estimate the probability that Mandy’s next pitch is
a strike.
Conduct and Evaluate a Simulation

Press and select [randInt (].Then press 1 , 10 ,


50 ) . Use the left and right arrow buttons to
view the results. Make a frequency table and record the
results.
Conduct and Evaluate a Simulation

Calculate the experimental probabilities.

Answer:
SCHOOL BUS Larry’s bus is late 60% of the time.
Conduct a simulation that can be used to estimate
the probability that his bus is late.
Conduct and Summarize Data from a Simulation

SOCCER Last season, Yao made 18% of his free


kicks. Conduct a simulation using 50 trials and
report the results, using appropriate numerical
and graphical summaries. Compare the
experimental and theoretical probabilities.
Conduct and Summarize Data from a Simulation

Answer: Answers will vary, but should include a


frequency table from the simulation and the
corresponding bar graph.
Sample answer: P(Made Kick) = 22%, P(Missed Kick)
= 78%. The experimental
probability is very close to the
theoretical probability of 18%.
Conduct and Summarize Data from a Simulation

Answer: Answers will vary, but should include a


frequency table from the simulation and the
corresponding bar graph.
Sample answer: P(Made Kick) = 22%, P(Missed Kick)
= 78%. The experimental
probability is very close to the
theoretical probability of 18%.
Essential Question
How can a sample accurately You Need: Attendance
represent the greater population? __/ students
Copybook, pen, pencil, calculator

Lesson Objective
4 January 2023
Collect and analyze Lesson 8.2 – Using Statistical Experiments
data by conducting
simulations of real-
life situations.
Which one of these statements is not true about
conducting a simulation to find probability?
A. The experimental probability and the theoretical
.
Success Criteria probability do not have to be equal probabilities.
B. The more trials executed, generally the closer the
I can design a experimental probability will be to the theoretical
probability.
simulation. C. Previous trials influences the possible outcomes of
future trials.
I can conduct and D. Theoretical probability can be calculated without
carrying out experimental trials.
evaluate a simulation.
I can summarize data
from a simulation. How can a simulation help us predict the outcomes
of a real-world scenario?
Which one of these statements is not true about
conducting a simulation to find probability?
A. The experimental probability and the
theoretical probability do not have to be
equal probabilities.
B. The more trials executed, generally the
closer the experimental probability will
be to the theoretical probability.
C. Previous trials have an effect on the
possible outcomes of future trials.
D. Theoretical probability can be calculated
without carrying out experimental trials.

You might also like