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    7.1D Probability Experiments + EXIT JKA

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    elsyasomba12

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    7.1D Probability Experiments + EXIT JKA

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    elsyasomba12
    7 views26 pages

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    7 views26 pages

    7.1D Probability Experiments + EXIT JKA

    Uploaded by

    elsyasomba12

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 26

    Experimental 12 August 2024

    Probability
    Do Now: Quiz for 5 Do Next:
    1 What is the probability of throwing a 4
    on a fair die?
    2 How many 6s do you expect to roll if you
    throw a dice 420 times?
    3 Find the gradient and y intercept of the
    line y = 3x-4
    4 Make x the subject of the formula

    5
    Find the gradient of the line joining the
    points (2,6) and (-8,4)
    Experimental 12 August 2024
    Probability
    Do Now: Quiz for 5 Do Next:
    1 What is the probability of throwing a 4 1 problem solving question
    on a fair die? 1/6
    2 How many 6s do you expect to roll if you
    throw a dice 420 times? 1/6 X 420 = 70
    3 Find the gradient and y intercept of the
    line y = 3x-4 m=3, c = -4
    4 Make x the subject of the formula

    5 -2/-10 or 1/5
    Packs of cards knowledge needed
    Learning Objectives

    To know:
    1. And use the terms Experiment, Outcome, Event and
    Trial
    2. That relative frequency is an estimated probability
    from past evidence found using number of
    favourable trials / total number of trials
    3. That increasing the number of trials makes
    estimated probabilities more reliable
    Previous Knowledge Review
    Event Num matching Num total Probability
    outcomes outcomes
    1 Drawing a Jack from a pack of 4 52 P(J) = 4/52 = 1/13
    cards.
    2 Drawing a club from a pack of
    cards.
    3 Drawing a card which is either a
    club or is an even number.
    4 Throwing two sixes on a die in a
    row.
    5 Throwing an even number on a die
    followed by an odd number.
    6 Throwing three square numbers on
    a die in a row.
    7 Seeing exactly two heads in four
    throws of a coin.
    8 Seeing the word ‘BOB’ when
    arranging two plastic Bs and an O
    on a sign.
    N Seeing the word LOLLY when
    arranging a letter O, Y and three
    letter Ls on a sign.
    Independent Practice
    Event Num matching Num total Probability
    outcomes outcomes
    1 Drawing a Jack from a pack of cards. 4 52 P(J) = 4/52 = 1/13
    2
    3
    Drawing a club from a pack of cards.
    Drawing a card which is either a club or is
    13
    28
    52
    52
    ? ?
    P(Club) = 13/52 = 1/4
    P(even or club) = 7/13

    4
    an even number.
    Throwing two sixes on a die in a row. 1
    ? 36
    ??
    P(66) = 1/36
    ?
    5 Throwing an even number on a die 9 ? 36 ? P(even-odd) =?1/4
    followed by an odd number.
    ? ? ?
    6 Throwing three square numbers on a die in 8 216 P(three square) = 1/27

    7
    a row.
    Seeing exactly two heads in four throws of a 6
    ? 16
    ? ?
    P(two Heads) = 3/8

    ? ? P(BOB) = 1/3 ?
    coin.
    8 Seeing the word ‘BOB’ when arranging two 2 6
    plastic Bs and an O on a sign.

    N Seeing the word LOLLY when arranging a 6 ? 120 ? ?


    P(LOLLY) = 1/20
    letter O, Y and three letter Ls on a sign.

    NN After shuffling a pack of cards, the cards in 4! x (13!)?


    4
    52! ? Roughly 1 in 2?
    billion billion
    each suit are all together. billion.
    ? ? ?
    New Learning

    For example: If we flipped a coin 10 times. The 10 flips together would be our experiment.
    Each of the 10 flips is a trial, and the possible outcomes for each trial are Heads, or Tails.

    An event is some combination of Heads or Tails occurring (for example 10 heads) which
    may or may not occur.
    Pause Point

    [Experiment] [repeatable procedure] [possible results]

    [Outcome] [possible result] [experiment]

    [Event] [outcomes] [experiment]

    [Trial] [procedure] [experiment]


    Pause Point

    Experiment – A repeatable procedure with a set of


    possible results

    Outcome – A possible result of an experiment

    Event – One or more outcomes of an experiment

    Trial – One procedure of an experiment


    New Learning

    Win Lose Draw


    7 1 2
    Pause Point

    Estimated probability is called...


    [relative]
    Pause Point

    Estimated probability is called relative frequency


    I do Youdo
    Use the information in the table to estimate
    A biased dice is rolled 20 times. It
    the frequency of each number on the die for
    lands on six 12 times. Write down
    1800 throws.
    Throws of a biased die.
    the relative frequency of rolling a six.

    No freq Relative freq


    1 25 25/250 = 0.1
    2 34 34/250 = 0.136
    3 32 32/250 = 0.128
    4 30 30/250 = 0.12
    5 34 34/250 = 0.136
    6 95 95/250 = 0.38
    250 trials

    1. 0.1 x 1800 = 180 4. 0.12 x 1800 = 216


    2. 0.136 x 1800 = 245 5. 0.136 x 1800 = 245
    3. 0.128 x 1800 = 230 6. 0.38 x 1800 = 684
    AFL Check
    A biased coin is flipped 30 times. It lands on tails 8 times.
    Write down the relative frequency of getting tails.
    AFL Check
    A biased coin is flipped 20 times. It lands on tails 7 times.
    Write down the relative frequency of getting heads.
    AFL Check
    A team plays 30 games in a season. They win 12. Estimate
    the probability that they win their next game.
    Independent Practice 4)

    1) A biased dice is rolled 50 times and


    lands on five 20 times. Find the
    relative frequency of rolling a five.
    5)
    2) A biased coin is flipped 10 times. It
    lands on tails 9 times. Estimate the
    probability of getting tails.

    3) Katie rolls a dice 100 times. The table


    shows the results 6)

    Work out the relative frequency of


    throwing: Challenge
    (a) An even number
    (b) A square number
    (c) A prime number
    (d) A cube number
    (e) A multiple of 3
    (f) A factor of 18
    New Learning
    Pause Point

    Estimates for probability can be made more


    reliable by…
    [increasing, trials]

    To know:
    - And use the terms Experiment, Outcome, Event and Trial
    - That relative frequency is an estimated probability from past evidence found using number of favourable trials /
    total number of trials
    - That increasing the number of trials makes estimated probabilities more reliable
    Pause Point

    Estimates for probability can be made more


    reliable by increasing the number of trials

    To know:
    - And use the terms Experiment, Outcome, Event and Trial
    - That relative frequency is an estimated probability from past evidence found using number of favourable trials /
    total number of trials
    - That increasing the number of trials makes estimated probabilities more reliable
    I do
    John and Tariq flipped the same biased coin find the relative frequency of
    getting heads. The table below shows their results.

    No. of Heads No. of Flips


    John 3 10
    Tariq 25 60

    a) Find two different estimates for the probability of getting heads


    b) Which estimate is more reliable? Why?

    a) and

    To know:
    - And use the terms Experiment, Outcome, Event and Trial
    - That relative frequency is an estimated probability from past evidence found using number of favourable trials /
    total number of trials
    - That increasing the number of trials makes estimated probabilities more reliable
    AfL

    Billie spins a four-sided spinner 200 times and it lands on four


    45 times.

    a) What is the relative frequency that the spinner will land


    on a four?

    b) How could you make this estimate of the probability of


    him scoring a four more accurate?
    AFL Check
    Sarah and Simone are doing an experiment to work out the relative frequency
    of getting a six using a biased dice. The results of their experiments are below.

    No. of 6 No. of rolls


    Sarah 23 40
    Simone 8 20

    a) Find two different estimates for the probability of getting heads


    b) Which estimate is more reliable? Why?

    To know:
    - And use the terms Experiment, Outcome, Event and Trial
    - That relative frequency is an estimated probability from past evidence found using number of favourable trials /
    total number of trials
    - That increasing the number of trials makes estimated probabilities more reliable
    Independent Practice2)target.
    On three days, Ali throws darts at a

    1) A coin is rolled onto a grid of squares. Here are his results.


    It lands randomly on the grid. No. of No. of No. of
    throws hits misses
    To win, the coin must land completely
    within one of the squares. Monday 20 15 5

    Meera and John each roll the coin a Tuesday 30 22 8


    number of times and record their Wednesday 40 17 23
    results. Total 90 54 36
    No. of 6 No. of Flips
    Meera 6 50
    a) Find two different estimates for the
    probability of Ali hitting the target.
    John 28 100
    b) Based on the information, what is the
    a) Find two different estimates for most accurate estimate for the
    the probability of getting heads probability of Ali hitting the target on
    b) Which estimate is more his next throw?
    reliable? Why?
    Challenge
    Exit Ticket
    Michael shoots 10 basketball shots and scores 7 of them.
    a) Find the relative frequency of him scoring his next shot.

    b) How could you make this estimate of the probability of him


    scoring more accurate

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