INFERENTIAL

STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS
 ANALYSIS OF
RESEARCH DATA

 In the "wheel" of the research process, analyzing

the research data comes as stage number four
following the data collection stage. Depending
upon the type of data collected, an appropriate
technique of analysis is used.
 INFERENTIAL
STATISTICS

Inferential statistics permits generalization from

samples to populations. It has to do with hypothesis
testing. Sampling error and sample bias are the two
main problems that faces the challenge of
generalizing from samples to populations.
 Sampling error involves the role of chance
in deciding on the findings or results, and
it results from taking small samples from
large populations.
 Sample bias involves samples that do not
accurately represent the population.
 Inferential statistics deals with the sampling error
and NOT with the sample bias. They are used to
estimate the role of chance in the findings, such
as when testing for the reliability of differences
between groups and deciding whether the
difference is a significant finding or a result of
chance only. The other way to check that chance
had nothing to do with the findings, is to repeat
the study several times, which can become
awkward, time-consuming and impractical.
 THE LOGIC OF
TESTING
HYPOTHESES
In your research project, you are usually interested in
testing some sort of a hypothesis. You try to confirm the
research hypothesis (sometimes called working
hypothesis), which is referred to in statistics as
the alternative hypothesis (referring to an alternative
to the null hypothesis). Confirming the alternative
hypothesis (or the research hypothesis itself) is not
done directly. Instead, confirming the alternative
hypothesis is done by testing (accepting or rejecting)
the null hypothesis.

 The alternative hypothesis indicates some

sort of a relationship between variables.
 The null hypothesis
indicates NO relationship between the same
variables.
 THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS IS STATED IN
POSITIVE TERMS SUCH AS THAT THERE WILL BE A
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GROUPS OR THAT THE
INDEPENDENT VARIABLE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
EFFECT ON THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE.

 To confirm the existence of a significant

relationship between variables or a significant
difference between groups, you have to
confidently REJECT the null hypothesis, in
other words, to say that the difference or
significance is NOT due to chance. If the null
hypothesis is accepted, that means that there
is NO difference between groups or NO effect
of the independent variable over the
dependent variable, the reason for any
observed difference will be attributed solely to
chance.
 The researcher usually decides on the level of significance
he or she is willing to accept or reject the null hypothesis. In
social sciences .05 or .01 level of significance is often used.
This is referred to as p<.05 or p<.01. The numbers indicate a
probability of 5 in 100 or 1 in 100 respectively.
 If the odds (likelihood) that the difference in measurements
that is due to chance is less than 5 in 100 or 1 in 100
respectively, then one would decide that the odds are small
hence reject the null hypothesis (i.e. there is a significant
finding and it is not merely a result of chance).
 If the difference is likely due to chance more than 5 times in
a 100 or 1 time in a 100 respectively, then one would have
no confidence in the findings therefore the null hypothesis is
accepted indicating that the difference is probably due to
chance and not due to the independent variable. Testing the
null hypothesis is done by performing a suitable inferential
statistical test on the data.
 In other words, p<.05 for example means that only 5%
error will be acceptable, hence the results must be
95% true. Reporting the results is done by stating that
the finding is "statistically significant" at p<.01 for
example. This means that the finding is NOT due to
chance, i.e. the null hypothesis is rejected and the
research hypothesis is accepted.
 A finding is statistically significant has nothing to do
with it being practically important. It simply means
that statistics show that chance was not a factor (high
probability that it was not a factor) in determining the
finding.
 INFERENTIAL
STATISTICAL TESTS
 The researcher has to decide on a suitable
statistical test to check for the significance of
the findings. The selection of the most
suitable test depends upon several factors
mainly the type of data, the distribution of
data, and the nature of the research
question or hypothesis.
FOR CONTINUOUS DATA

TWO MOST COMMON TESTS ARE THE T-

TEST AND THE ANALYSIS OF
VARIANCE ANOVA.

THE T-TEST COMPARES TWO GROUPS,

ANOVA COMPARES DIFFERENCES AMONG
TWO OR MORE GROUPS. THEY BOTH
CONSIDER THE OVERLAP IN THE
DISTRIBUTION OF DATA IN ORDER TO
DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MEANS. BOTH TESTS
REQUIRE DATA TO BE NORMALLY
DISTRIBUTED.
FOR CATEGORICAL DATA

THE MOST COMMON TEST IS THE CHI-

SQUARE X2 (PRONOUNCED KI). IT TESTS
WHETHER THE PATTERN OF THE ACTUAL
RESULTS (COUNTS IN CATEGORIES)
DIFFERS RELIABLY FROM WHAT WOULD
BE EXPECTED BY CHANCE.
STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
Do not
reject Ho

Reject Ho
and accept
H1
 STEP 1: STATE THE
NULL HYPOTHESIS (HO)
AND ALTERNATE
HYPOTHESIS (H1)
 State the hypothesis being tested.
 It is called the null hypothesis, designated Ho,
and read “H sub zero.”
 The subscript zero implies “no difference”

 If the null hypothesis is not rejected on the basis

of the sample data, we cannot say that the null
hypothesis is true.
 STEP 1: STATE THE
NULL HYPOTHESIS (HO)
AND ALTERNATE
HYPOTHESIS (H1)
 Alternative hypothesis – a statement that is
accepted if the sample data provide sufficient
evidence that the null hypothesis is false.
 The alternative hypothesis describes what you
will conclude if you reject the null hypothesis.
 It is written H1 and is read “H sub one.”
 It is also referred to as the research hypothesis
 STEP 2: SELECT A
LEVEL OF
SIGNIFICANCE
 Level of significance – the probability of rejecting
the null hypothesis when it is true.
 The level of significance is designated α, the
Greek letter alpha.
 It is sometimes called the level of risk. It is the
risk you take in rejecting the null hypothesis
when it is really true.
STEP 3: SELECT THE
TEST STATISTIC
 STEP 4: FORMULATE
THE DECISION RULE

 A decision rule is a statement of the specific

conditions under which the null hypothesis is
rejected and the conditions under which it is not
rejected.

 The region or area of rejection defines the

location of all those values that are so large or so
small that the probability of their occurrence
under a true null hypothesis is rather remote
SIGNIFICANCE
TESTING

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CRITICAL REGION
The critical region (or rejection
region) is the set of all values
of the test statistic that cause
us to reject the null
hypothesis.

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SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
The significance level (denoted
by ) is the probability that the
test statistic will fall in the
critical region when the null
hypothesis is actually true.
Common choices for  are
0.05, 0.01, and 0.10.
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 CRITICAL VALUE
A critical value is any value separating
the critical region (where we reject the
H0) from the values of the test statistic
that does not lead to rejection of the
null hypothesis, the sampling
distribution that applies, and the
significance level .

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TWO-TAILED,
RIGHT-TAILED,
LEFT-TAILED TESTS

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 TWO-TAILED TEST
H0: =
 is divided equally between
H1:  the two tails of the critical
region

Means less than or greater than

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 RIGHT-TAILED TEST
H 0: =

H 1: >
Points Right

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 LEFT-TAILED TEST
H0: =

H1: <

Points Left

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 P-VALUE
The P-value (or p-value or
probability value) is the probability
of getting a value of the test
statistic that is at least as extreme
as the one representing the sample
data, assuming that the null
hypothesis is true. The null
hypothesis is rejected if the P-
value is very small, such as 0.05 or
less.
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CONCLUSIONS
IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

We always test the null

hypothesis.

1. Reject the H0

2. Fail to reject the H0

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ACCEPT VERSUS
FAIL TO REJECT
 Some texts use “accept the null
hypothesis.”
 We are not proving the null hypothesis.
 The sample evidence is not strong enough
to warrant rejection (such as not enough
evidence to convict a suspect).

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Decision Criterion
Traditional method:
Reject H0 if the test statistic
falls within the critical region.
Fail to reject H0 if the test
statistic does not fall within the
critical region.

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 Decision Criterion

P-value method:
Reject H0 if P-value   (where
 is the significance level,
such as 0.05).
Fail to reject H0 if P-value
> .
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EXAMPLE:
FINDING P-
VALUES

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 Hypothesis testing about:
 a population mean or mean difference (paired data)
 the difference between means of two populations
 the difference between two population proportions

Three Cautions:
1. Inference is only valid if the sample is
representative of the population for the question
of interest.
2. Hypotheses and conclusions apply to the larger
population(s) represented by the sample(s).
3. If the distribution of a quantitative variable is highly
skewed, consider analyzing the median rather than
the mean – called nonparametric methods.

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SIGNIFICANCE
TESTING
Steps in Any Hypothesis Test
1. Determine the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Verify necessary data conditions, and if met,
summarize the data into an appropriate test
statistic.
3. Assuming the null hypothesis is true, find the p-
value.
4. Decide whether or not the result is statistically
significant based on the p-value.
5. Report the conclusion in the context of the
situation.
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Type I and Type II Errors

35
 Type I and Type II errors can be defined in
terms of hypothesis testing
A Type I error () is the probability of rejecting a true
null hypothesis.

A Type II error () is the probability of failing to reject

a false null hypothesis.

Or simply:

A Type I error () is the probability of telling you things

are wrong, given that things are correct.

A Type II error () is the probability of telling you

things are correct, given that things are wrong.
The Type I error is the error committed when we
decide to reject the null hypothesis when in
reality the null hypothesis is true.

The Type II error is the error committed when we

decide not to reject the null hypothesis when in
reality the null hypothesis is false.
In a test of hypothesis, we should accept
the possibility that whatever decision we
take, we could commit one of the two
types of errors. When we decide to
reject Ho, then it is possible to commit a
type I error. However, when we decide
not to reject Ho (accept Ho), then it is
possible to commit a type II error. Of
course, we cannot commit both errors at
the same time.
We would naturally want the probability of
committing a type I error and the probability
of committing a type II error to be close to 0.
Unfortunately, it is not feasible to develop a
statistical test that will minimize both
probabilities because, in most situations, the
two probabilities are inversely related. For a
fixed sample size n, a decrease in the
probability of one will usually result in an
increase in the probability of the other. The
practical approach then is to set an upper
bound on one of the probabilities and find a
statistical test that will minimize the other
The standard practice is to set an upper bound on
the probability of committing a type I error, then find
a statistical test with the smallest probability of
committing a type II error. The upper bound that we
set for the probability of committing a type I error is
what we refer to as the level of significance.

The level of significance, denoted by α, is the

maximum probability of committing a type I error
that the researcher is willing to commit.
The p-value is the probability of selecting a sample
whose computed value for the test statistic is equal
to or more extreme (in the direction stated in Ha)
than the realized value computed from the sample
data, given that the null hypothesis is true.

The p-value is often referred to as the “observed

level of significance.” As a rule, if the p-value is
greater than the level of significance, α, then we do
not reject the null hypothesis (accept Ho). On the
other hand, if the p-value is less than or equal to the
level of significance, then we reject the null
hypothesis.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING USING
THE CRITICAL VALUE

1. State the null hypothesis, Ho, and the alternative hypothesis, Ha.

2. Choose the level of significance, α.

3. Determine the appropriate statistical technique and

corresponding test statistic to use.

4. Set up the decision rule. Identify the critical value or values that
will separate the rejection region and nonrejection regions.

Decision Rule: Reject Ho if the value of the test statistic falls in the
region of rejection.

5. Collect the data and compute the value of the test statistic.

6. Determine whether the value of the test statistic falls in the rejection
or nonrejection region. Make the statistical decision.

7. Express the statistical decision in terms of the problem.

 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
USING THE P-VALUE
1. State the null hypothesis, Ho, and the alternative
hypothesis, Ha.

2. Choose the level of significance, α.

3. Determine the appropriate statistical technique and

corresponding test statistic to use.

4. Collect the data and compute the value of the test

statistic.

5. Compute for the p-value. Compare the p-value with the

level of significance, α. Make the statistical decision.

Decision Rule: Reject Ho if the p-value is less than or

equal to the level of significance.

6. Express the statistical decision in terms of the problem.