Lecture-01: Principles of Model

Chief-Instructor
Dr. Md. Nazrul Islam
Ph.D. (University of Tokyo, Japan) (MEXT Fellow)
JSPS Postdoctoral Research Fellow (2012-2014)
NFP Fellow for M.Sc. ESA Credits (Netherlands)
ISEM Fellow for Ecological Modeling (USA)
SAMS Fellow for Marine ECOPATH Modeling (UK)
Associate Professor
Department of Geography and Environment
Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Executive Editor-in-Chief
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment
Introduction
What is a Model?

• A necessarily simplified abstraction of the real-

world
• Comprises the known fundamental sources of
causality within a natural system
• Disregards factors of little or no importance
• Uses assumptions
• Uses parameterisations where factors are not
known or hard to calculate
What is a Model?

simplified representation of a process

Model = entities + relations + attributes + rules
Some characteristics of useful predictive
environmental models
• Simple in structure
• Few driving variables
• Ignore many processes
• Strong empirical basis
• Applied to many systems
• Well tested
Which one is Model?

Uncertainty

Model
 Modeling Approaches in Geography
Ecological Model Hydrological Model
Species densities, GIS map layers (Vegetation,
Habitats, Food web, Data Sources hydrology, elevation), Water,
Physical conditions, Sediment, Flow, Weather,
Biomass productivity, Roads, cloud, rainfall etc.
Energy Flow etc.

Monitoring
Models

Management input Statistical

Differential
Harvest equations
regulation Matrix
Water control Agent-based
Reserve design Analysis Simulation Conceptual

Visualization, validation, Fortran, Matlab, C++, Distributed,

sensitivity, uncertainty Parallel, Python etc.
 Modelling Philosophy
• It has been suggested that the most useful links
between a theory and a model are mediated
through imagination (Harvey, 1969)

models

imagination theory
Modelling Philosophy
The MOST important principle of modelling
Some predictive models in ecology
• Phosphorus in lakes – Wollenweider model

Phosphorus Lake Phosphorus

inflow Ecosystems outflow

Phosphorus
sedimentation
Modelling Philosophy
When modeling a dynamic process (like the climate) we
are concerned with the following paradigm:

Future value (or state) = present value + change

We may also consider the following re-arrangement:

Change = future value – present value

 Model
• What is a model?
• an abstracted representation of reality
• What is a mathematical model?
• A model built with the ‘tools’ of mathematics
• What is a mathematical model in Geography?
• Use models to simulate effect of actual or
hypothetical set of processes
• to forecast one or more possible outcomes

Forward model
a=f(b); measure b, use model to predict a
Inverse model
b=f-1(a); measure a, use model to predict b
What are the Goals of Modeling Studies?
• Appreciation of broad use of modelling
• Hands-on an experience with simulation
techniques
• Develop communication skills working with
practicing professionals

• Modelling motivations
– Pragmatic: tools for solving problems
– Paradigmatic: tools that facilitate a better understanding
Environmental Modelling
1. Environmental Statistics (Statistical Programming)
• Environmental data
• Introduction into statistics and time series analysis
• Spatial statistics – Geo-statistics
• Data analysis and presentation tools

2. Environmental Geographical Information Systems (EGIS)

• Spatial data – types and structures
• Spatial data bases and how to use them
• Grid based digital terrain analysis
• GIS for hydrological modelling

3. Environmental Modelling
• Modelling in an environmental context
• Model types and model building
• Model procedures, calibration and validation techniques
• Scenario techniques
• Model uncertainties
 Problems to consider
Degree of sophistication:
- How much complexity can we afford?
- Complex, fully integrated system solutions vs.
simple and basic approaches

Commercial vs. open source software

- Integration of supporting partners

(Un-conventional?) teaching styles – permanent

alteration of lecture – computer based practical –
tutorial
 Some Types of Environmental Model
[According Grim,1999]

• Analytical • Matrix
• Empirical • Process-based
• Statistical/Stochastic • Mechanistic
• Deterministic • Numerical
• Bayesian • Kinetic
• Behaviour-based • Predictive
• Dynamic • Neural network
 How Useful are these Models?
• Model is based on a set of assumptions
‘As long as assumptions hold’, should be valid

• When developing a model?

• Important to define & understand assumptions and
to state these explicitly
• When using a model?
• important to understand assumptions
• make sure model is relevant
How Do We Know How ‘Good’ a Model Is?
For environmental models, often difficult to achieve
• Can’t make (sufficient) measurements
• highly variable environmental conditions
• prohibitive timescale or spatial sampling required
• Systems generally ‘open’
• no control over all interactions with surrounding
areas and atmosphere
• Use:
• ‘partial validations’
• sensitivity analyses
How Do We Know How ‘Good’ a Model Is?
‘Partial validation’
• compare model with other models
• analyses sub-components of system
• e.g. with lab experiments
Sensitivity analyses
• vary each model parameter to see how sensitive
output is to variations in input
• build understanding of:
• model behavior
• response to key parameters
• parameter coupling
Mathematical Modelling
Functional model representation

PROCESS
INPUTS OUTPUTS

I O
f(I)

O=f(I)
Type of Mathematical
Model
Main choice:
• Statistical / empirical
• ‘calibration model’
• Physically-based
• model physics of interactions
• in Geography, also used to include many empirical models, if it
includes some aspect of physics
• e.g. conservation of mass/energy - e.g. USLE
• similar concepts:
• Theoretical model
• Mechanistic model
Type of Mathematical
Model
Other options:

• deterministic
• relationship a=f(b) is always same
• no matter when, where calculate it
• stochastic
• exists element of randomness in relationship
• repeated calculation gives different results
Type of Mathematical
Model
Other options:

• forward model
• a=f(b)
• measure b, use model to predict a
• inverse model
• b=f-1(a)
• measure a, use model to predict b
 Environmental Modelling
Rf
A
OVF1 Int
Rf ET Ovf
S1
OVF2
S2 TF
C TF1 OVFn
Sn
P1 TF2 DTM
Ro
P2 TFn etc.
Q
Pn Q

lumped 2D distributed 3D distributed

Numerical Model Generation, Conceptualisation and Model

Parameterisation, Data analysis, Geo-statistics, Calibration and
Validation of Numerical Models, Scenario Development and
Simulation, Model Testing and Prediction, Forecasting, Uncertainty
Analysis….
Type of Mathematical
Model
Practically, and especially in environmental
modelling, always need to consider:
• uncertainty
• in measured inputs
• in model
• and so should have distribution of outputs
• scale
• different relationships over different scales
• principally consider over time / space
‘Physically-based’ models
• e.g. Simple population growth
• Require:
• model of population Q over time t
• Theory:
• in a ‘closed’ community, population change given by:
• increase due to births
• decrease due to deaths
• over some given time period t
‘Physically-based’ models
• population change given by:
• increase due to births
• decrease due to deaths

Q(t  t ) Q(t )  births (t )  deaths (t ) [1]

‘Physically-based’ models
• Assume that for period t
• rate of births per head of population is B
• rate of deaths per head of population is D
• We can write:

births (t ) B * Q(t ) * t
deaths
• Implicit assumption that (B,D D
t ) are * Q(over
constant  t t
t ) *time [2]
‘Physically-based’ models
• If model parameters, B,D, constant
and ignoring age/sex distribution and environmental factors (food,
disease etc)

Then ...
Q(t ) Q(t  t )  Q(t )
so :
Q(t  t )  Q(t )
Q
 t
t
births (t )  deaths (t )
 t

 ( B  D)Q(t ) [3]
‘Physically-based’ models
• As time period considered decreases, can write eqn [3] as a
differential equation:
dQ
( B  D)Q
dt
• i.e. rate of change of population with time equal to birth-rate minus
death-rate multiplied by current population
• Solution is ...
‘Physically-based’ models

Q(t ) Q0 e ( B D ) t

• Consider the following:

• what does Q0 mean?
• does the model work if the population is small?
• What happens if B>D (and vice-versa)?
• How might you ‘calibrate’ the model parameters? [hint - think
logarithmically]
‘Physically-based’ models

Q(t ) Q0 e ( B D ) t

B>D

Q0
B<D

t
Other Distinctions
• Numerical
• solution to model statement found e.g. by calculating various model
components over discrete intervals
• e.g. for integration / differentiation
Which type of model to use?
• Statistical
• advantages
• simple to formulate
• generally quick to calculate
• require little / no knowledge of underlying (e.g. physical) principles
• (often) easy to invert
• as have simple analytical formulation
Which type of model to use?
• Statistical
• disadvantages
• may only be appropriate to limited range of parameter
• may only be applicable under limited observation conditions
• validity in extrapolation difficult to justify
• does not improve general understanding of process
Which type of model to use?
• Physical/Theoretical/Mechanistic
• advantages
• if based on fundamental principles, applicable to wide range of conditions
• use of numerical solutions (& fast computers) allow great flexibility in modelling
complexity
• may help to understand process
• e.g. examine role of different assumptions
Which type of model to use?
• Physical/Theoretical/Mechanistic
• disadvantages
• more complex models require more time to calculate
• get a bigger computer!
• Supposition of knowledge of all important processes and variables as well as
mathematical formulation for process
• often difficult to obtain analytical solution
• often tricky to invert
The Demographic Transition
Malthus’ Principal of Population as it
affects the future
Von Thunen’s Land Use Model
•1826- The Isolated State by Johann
von Thunen
•According to the model, a
commercial farmer initially considers
which crops to cultivate and which
animals to raise based on market
location.
•Farmer takes into account two costs:
cost of land v. cost of transportation
•The goods that are expensive to ship
or are perishable will be closer to the
central city while the goods that need
lots of land or are inexpensive to ship
will be farther from the central city.
 Concentric Zone Model

Definition: A city grows outward from a central city in a series of concentric rings.
The rings denote different classes of people.
1st is the CBD
2nd is the zone of transition containing industry and poorer houses
3rd is the working-class zone containing modest homes with working class families
4th is the middle class with newer spacious homes
5th is the commuter zone
Sector Model

Definition: The city develops in a series of sectors, not rings. As a city grows,
activities expand outward in a wedge from the center. Many areas are more
attractive for various activities. Social classes are found in sectors of a city, not
in the rings from the inside out.
 Digital Surface Models
• Types
• DEM : Digital Elevation Model
• DSM : Digital Surface Model
• DTM : Digital Terrain Model

• Data Structure
• Raster
• TIN
 Geographical data analyses

Spatial Interpolation

Ex: Interpolation of precipitation for weather forecasting

Numerical Modelling of Groundwater Pollution