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ALASKA ENERGY
     A first step toward energy independence.




A Guide for Alaskan Communities to Utilize Local Energy Resources

                          January 2009

                                     Prepared by:

                                     Alaska Energy Authority
                                     Alaska Center for Energy and Power


                                                                    1
Copyright Information:

    This publication for a Statewide
    Energy Plan was produced by the
    Alaska Energy Authority per legislative
    appropriation. The report was
    printed at a cost of $12.00 per copy
2   in black and white, and $58.00 per
    copy in color in Anchorage, Alaska by
    Standard Register.
Table of Contents


6			 Sustainable Energy for Alaskans		

8			 How this Document Should be Used		

17		   Railbelt Region
22		   Energy in Alaska
33		   History of Energy Policy in Alaska
38		   Current Energy Policy and Planning in Alaska
44		   Policies with Energy Implications
55		   Permitting

57		   Technology Chapters
		     58	     Diesel Efficiency and Heat Recovery
		     74	     Efficiency (End-Use)
		     84	     Hydroelectric
		     101	    Wind
		     120 	   Biomass
		     135	    Geothermal
		     150	    Heat Pumps
		     156	    Solar
		     161	    Coal
		     168	    Natural Gas
		     175	    Delivery
		     179	    Energy Storage
		     190	    Hydrokinetic/Tidal
		     204	    Wave
		     211 	   Nuclear
		     217	    Coal Bed Methane
		     223	    Fuel Cells
		     224	    Alternative Fuels

232	   Explanation of Database Methodology
240	   Glossary
242	   Units of Measure
243	   Acronyms - List of Organizations
244	   Acknowledgements
                                                      3
T   he narrative and model in this report are designed
    to provide information to engage Alaskans who have
    a passion to provide energy solutions, stimulate the
    Alaskan economy and provide leadership for the benefit
    of all Alaskans.

    Alaska has had many high-quality energy plans written
    over the years, but none ever gained traction to come
    to fruition. To increase the likelihood that energy
    solutions will become a reality, the new approach will
    engage Alaskans in the solution and invite their active
    participation in the selection and ownership of their
    alternative energy sources.

    The safe approach to conducting this work would have
    been to hire a consultant. With some risk but a large
    increase in the service to Alaskans, the Alaska Energy
    Authority chose to utilize the expertise of in-house
    staff. This personal accountability by the professionals
    at AEA will help ensure Alaskans have access to energy
    information and a single location they can work with to
    resolve their energy challenges and opportunities. As
    more information becomes available, the information will
    be placed in the energy model for use by decision makers
    long into the future.




    					                   Steven Haagenson
    					                   Statewide Energy Coordinator
4
5
Sustainable Energy for Alaskans


W     e Alaskans live in a magnificent state that has
many blessings when it comes to energy, but also
                                                         dependence on petroleum. This effort must be
                                                         approached as a team effort, where each participant,
some curses. Alaskans live in a state with abundant      private or public, can provide value for permitting,
energy resources, but are hampered by long distances     construction, applied research and development,
and low usages.                                          natural resource management, financing, workforce
                                                         development in management, design, business,
The Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) has developed          construction, operations, economic development,
this document to act as a first step toward energy       wealth retention, and leadership.
independence for Alaskans. The document contains
two main sections - a narrative which you are            Alaska Energy - First Steps
reading now, and a technology screening tool we
have developed to allow each community to review
locally available resources and determine the least-     The first step in creating this document was to
cost energy options based on the delivered cost of       identify each community’s current energy needs
energy to residents.                                     for electrical generation, space heating, and
                                                         transportation. It is important to know these values
Energy use in each community is composed of three
                                                         as they provide a reference or measuring stick
major components: electricity, space heating, and
                                                         against which we can measure alternatives. Electric
transportation. The relative level of use and cost for
                                                         power usage was obtained directly from current PCE
each of these components differs across Alaska. For
                                                         reports, while heating oil and transportation was
instance, Anchorage residents pay comparatively
                                                         estimated by the Institute of Social and Economic
less for electricity and space heating, but more for
                                                         Research (ISER) based on modeling.
transportation due to heavy dependence on vehicle
travel. Rural Alaskans see lower vehicle travel,         AEA conducted 28 Town Hall Meetings across the
but have much higher costs for heating oil and           state, engaging many Alaskans through the process
electricity.                                             of seeking answers to three fundamental questions:
                                                         1) What resources near your community - where
All of America is struggling with the high cost of       you live, work, play, fish, and hunt - could possibly
energy, but Alaskans have the resources, the ability,    be developed to help lower energy costs? 2) What
and the motivation to create long-term solutions that    resources should not be developed? 3) Why not?
will greatly benefit our children and grandchildren.
AEA’s goal in developing the Alaska Energy Plan is       The information gathered from these Town Hall
to reduce the cost of energy to all Alaskans through     Meetings was used to develop a resources matrix
deployment of energy technologies that are vertically    for each community. Potential resources identified
integrated, economic, long-term stably priced, and       included hydroelectric, in-river hydro, wind, solar,
sustainable.                                             wave, tidal, biomass, geothermal, municipal waste,
                                                         natural gas, propane, coal, diesel, coal bed methane,
In order to achieve this goal, we will be engaging       and nuclear. Also identified were opportunities
Alaskans throughout the state who have the expertise     for gasification and production of Fischer-Tropsch
and passion to use local resources to reduce their       liquids.



 6
Sustainable Energy for Alaskans


For each resource, AEA formed Technology Teams
made up of people with expertise and a passion
for energy solutions who were asked to identify
technologies options and limitations for each
identified resource. The Alaska Center for Energy
and Power (ACEP) at the University of Alaska was
brought in initially to help guide the technology
discussions, and ultimately went above and beyond
in their work on the narrative and the comparative
database.
Appropriate technologies for each fuel have been
identified. Capital and operations and maintenance
costs for each technology have been determined and
adjusted by region through use of factors developed
by HMS Construction Cost Consultants.
The net result is a focusing tool that will provide
each community with a high-level snapshot of the
least-cost options for electricity, space heating, and
transportation for their community. Prices will be
based on a delivered cost that includes capital cost
for infrastructure. The delivered cost number can
be used to quickly compare the alternative energy
options to diesel fuel based on a range ($50-$150) of
crude oil prices.
This first step in the ongoing Energy Plan is
intended to provide a high-level tool to focus each
community on its relative options for generating
electricity and heat through the use of locally
available resources. This is an important step in
developing a community, regional, and statewide
energy plan. This process is intended to occur in
stages, and it allows the state to provide assistance
with maximum support and buy-in from Alaskans.
Starting at the local level and using this plan as a
building block to develop regional and statewide
energy plans, the goal is to engage citizens directly
in developing energy solutions for Alaska.




                                                         7
How this Document Should be Used


T    he illustration on this page shows a sample
community energy meter. The energy meter is part
                                                         within the cost range for diesel equivalent with crude
                                                         oil between $50/bbl and $150/bbl. The $50-$150
of the technology screening tool and allows for a        range is considered the Yellow Zone and can include
quick comparison between alternative energy options      the entire range of energy alternatives.
based on a range of future crude oil prices for each     Some communities have options that exceed
community in the state. As part of this screening        the diesel equivalent of $150/bbl. This range is
analysis, current electric and space heating costs are   considered the Red Zone and indicates resources
compared on a total cost basis with capital, operation   that are probably not cost-effective to develop at
and maintenance (O&M), and fuel costs for various        this time. If no other resources exist, a broader
technologies. The focus is on near-term, commercial,     regional evaluation should be conducted to search
and proven                                                                            for available options
technologies,                                                                         in nearby communities
although an                                                                           with Green or Yellow
assessment                                                                            Zone resources. The
of some pre-                                                                          high cost is likely a
commercial or                                                                         function of the size of
potential future                                                                      the community, or the
options are also                                                                      distance to available
included.                                                                             resources.
The options for                                                                        In some communities,
each community                                                                         the resource capability
are compared with                                                                      is much larger than
the current cost of                                                                    the current energy
energy as well as                                                                      requirements of the
a diesel equivalent                                                                    community. For
range of $50/bbl                                                                       resources developed to
crude oil (low                                                                         their full capacity but
projection) to $150/bbl (high projection). There         only using a portion of the energy, the cost would
are many communities with access to alternative          be high and could shift into the Red Zone. This is
resources that can potentially provide energy at a       the case with some of the larger hydroelectric and
cost below the diesel equivalent of $50/bbl crude oil.   geothermal resources. In this case, the community
A sub $50 resource is defined as the Green Zone and      could look at ways to use excess capacity from the
can include wood (biomass) heat and wind/diesel          resource to spur economic growth opportunities and
options in the short term, as well as hydroelectric or   lower the cost of energy to residents.
geothermal options in the long term. The projection
indicates that a Green Zone option alternative could     There are several communities that do not have any
reduce energy costs even when crude oil is at $150/      viable alternative energy resources. This finding
bbl.                                                     demonstrates the need to follow up with regional
                                                         evaluations to assess potential alternatives beyond
For most communities, the resource options fall          the immediate area of the community. It is also

 8
How this Document Should be Used


likely that some communities are too small or too       and engage these entities in developing long-
remote, and the most economic answer would be           term energy solutions. Local buy-in will permit
to continue to use diesel fuel for the forseeable       more focused regional feedback to the legislature,
future. However, this analysis indicates that most      thus insuring that the best options are being
communities have at least one opportunity to reduce     recommended for approval. The screening tool is
diesel use, even if solely through implementing         also designed to be continually updated as more
efficiency measures.                                    information is available. In this way it will serve
                                                        as a valuable tool for the legislature and governor
We believe that use of local resources will help        when they consider energy requests in future capital
stabilize local economies by developing jobs to         budgets.
build, operate, and maintain energy systems. Local
jobs will also be created where fuel collection,        The focus of this work is on the non-Railbelt
processing, and transportation are required. In this    portions of Alaska. That is where the need to
way, the dollars currently spent on diesel fuel could   reduce energy costs is greatest. The Railbelt will
be recirculated within a community and used to          be addressed through an Integrated Resource Plan
strengthen the economic base.                           (IRP), which will evaluate multiple energy sources
                                                        and delivery systems. It is likely that the solution
The next step is to engage Alaskans at the regional
                                                        for the Railbelt will be a combination of available
level to discuss results from this screening tool.
                                                        resources such as large hydroelectric projects,
These regional meetings will provide a forum for
                                                        natural gas supplies, pipelines, biomass, wind, and
additional community input. Meetings will also be
conducted with utilities, municipalities, and native    geothermal systems.
corporations to develop public/private partnerships




                                                                                                           9
How this Document Should be Used


A    laska has abundant resources and Alaskans have
enjoyed relatively low-cost diesel prior to the pricing
                                                           to shift from diesel as much as possible, even when
                                                           prices are low, if we are to avoid high costs in the
surge in 2007 that extended through the summer of          future.
2008. When fuel prices are low and stable, interest
                                                           This document can provide insight into the energy
in the use of locally available alternative fuels is
                                                           opportunities that lie ahead for Alaskans. The
low. When prices spike, interest likewise becomes
                                                           technology screening database is based on data
high, but the opportunity to use lower-cost fuels
                                                           collected from numerous sources throughout the
may not exist without proper planning, research,
                                                           state. Where data has not been collected, models
and development. During oil price spikes in the
                                                           were developed to approximate the missing data.
1980s, there was much interest in alternative energy
                                                           For example, ISER developed a model to predict the
across the nation, including Alaska. Nevertheless,
                                                           amount of heating oil used for spacing heating and
projects such as the Susitna Hydroelectric Dam were
                                                           vehicular transportation by community.
canceled when crude oil dropped to $9.00 per barrel.
                                                           Data pertaining to population change and Power
We have recently seen the price of crude drop from
                                                           Cost Equalization has also been incorporated and is
$124/bbl to $28/bbl, and lower, in a reduction
                                                           felt to be reliable and accurate.
similar to the one in the 1980s. This drop in oil
prices hits Alaska doubly hard, as a reduction in
                                                           The cost estimates contained in this report were
state revenue limits funds available to develop the
                                                           conducted at the conceptual level with no site-
necessary infrastructure needed to switch to lower-
                                                           specific design or scope development. Cost
cost fuels when crude oil prices again rise. The
                                                           estimates were based on similar historical energy
general consensus is that oil prices will again rise,
                                                           projects constructed in Alaska, vendor estimates,
but there is on-going debate about the future price of
                                                           and historical studies and reports for specific
crude oil and the long-term volatility. Alaska is an
                                                           applications. These need to be recognized for
oil-producing and exporting state, but there are many
                                                           what they are: high level conceptual cost estimates.
external factors that will increase or decrease crude
                                                           The recommendations are based on the best data
oil pricing. In a global market with large consumers
                                                           currently available, but detailed site specific cost
like India and China, Alaskans will be riding the
                                                           estimates must be completed prior to project
market roller coaster with little influence on the final
                                                           selection to determine more accurate values.
price determination. What can be controlled in this
energy world?
Alaska has numerous energy resources and the
power to choose its fuel supplies. A method is
needed to place these choices in perspective. Public
awareness needs to increase. There may be energy
options that can provide lower-cost energy than
today’s $50/bbl oil. Resources that could be used to
power and heat Alaskan communities and provide
opportunities for local economic development should
not sit unused. Alaskans must make the commitment


 10
How this Document Should be Used


T    he technology screening tool exists in two
sections. The first is the energy meter page for a fast
                                                           A community can select its fast scan sheet and look
                                                           for resources in the Green Zone. If resources exist
scan of local resources. The second is in a numeric        in the Green Zone, this is an indication that local
results format for a more in-depth analysis of the         resources might provide a less expensive stable-
data.                                                      priced energy source, even if the cost of crude
                                                           oil were to rise. Green Zone resources should be
The energy meter page has been prepared for every          reviewed for projected construction costs and time,
community in Alaska located “outside” the Railbelt         since the most economic projects, such as hydro or
region. The numbers are reported as specific values        geothermal, tend to have a longer construction time.
for convenience, but in actuality contain a high           If all Green Zone projects have long construction
degree of uncertainty as a result of incomplete            times, look at the Yellow Zone for resource options
data, conceptual cost estimates and estimates              with a shorter delivery schedule.
based on models. They are intended to provide an
approximate value for the delivered cost of energy         The Yellow Zone is the range of possible crude
from a particular resource. Prior to finalization of       pricing we have seen over the past few months.
an energy resource selection, a detailed site-specific     Predicting crude oil prices can be risky if not
cost estimate must be done to determine actual             impossible. The recent reduction in crude prices is
project costs for financing and benefits evaluation.       believed to be temporary, but exactly when and how
                                                           much prices will rise is not known. If resources
The energy meter page has two meter faces, one for         exist in the Yellow Zone, this indicates that the
the cost of electricity and one for the cost of space      alternative resource may not be economic unless
heating. The meter dial has three colors, green,           crude oil prices were to rise. This is also the zone
yellow, and red. They are linked to the cost of crude      where the state could assist in paying down the
oil. In the past few months, crude oil prices have         capital debt component to reduce the resultant cost
ranged between $150/bbl to $30/bbl. With the price         of energy to the community. If $50/bbl is the target
volatility of crude oil, the meter face was developed      point for state assistance, then, rather than paying
to show the locally available energy sources with          the entire capital cost of the alternative project, the
respect to a variable pricing of crude oil. Rather         state assistance should be limited to paying capital
than predict the future price of oil, the green, yellow,   costs down to the Green Zone or the $50/bbl target
and red zones have been created. The Green Zone            point. Using the target point concept will help
defines relative costs for crude oil pricing of $50/bbl    produce alternative energy at a level that can be
or less. The Yellow Zone defines cost above $50/           sustained. For example, large hydroelectric projects
bbl, but below $150/bbl. The Red Zone represents           are capital intensive but have low O&M cost on
crude oil costs above $150/bbl.                            the order of $0.01/kWh. Rather than assuming full
                                                           capital relief and yielding the low O&M cost only, a
The cost of electricity and space heating from diesel      balance of loans and grants could be applied to bring
fuel shown on the meters are computed using the            the resulting energy costs down to the pricing point
price of crude oil, delivered to the community and         equivalent. The all or nothing approach to capital
used in the existing infrastructure. The electrical        funding may result in the wrong pricing signal for
costs include non-fuel costs so the electrical cost        energy, and over-expend funds in one area while
shown will relate to the cost per kilowatt-hour shown      other areas will be paying much higher prices. Both
on the billing statement, prior to the applicable PCE      short and long-term projects can exist in the Yellow
reduction.
                                                                                                              11
How this Document Should be Used


                   Zone. As the values of resources have a wide            evaluation of the balancing of the risks and rewards.
                   range, several of the lower-cost options should be      The community energy model can be used to analyze
                   reviewed for further investigation. As a general        and compare different methods and levels of financing
                   rule, short term projects should be selected first,     and grants.
                   with the addition of larger or longer term projects
                                                                           Learning from history, we need to recognize past
                   that will further reduce the cost of energy to the
                                                                           performance, to avoid the historical results of
                   community.
                                                                           alternative energy plans described in the ‘History of
                   The Red Zone includes projects that are not cost        Energy Policy in Alaska’ section of this document.
                   effective at this time and will not be so unless
                                                                           Specific factors which impeded success of alternative
                   technology develops to reduce the resulting energy
                                                                           energy initiatives as stated in the House Research
                   cost, or until crude oil is above the $150/bbl price.
                                                                           Report 85-C published in 1985 include:
                   The numeric results sheet can be used for a more in-
                                                                              • State agencies did not develop strong
                   depth analysis of the data. The first part identifies
                                                                                management capabilities
                   the current energy needs and costs for electricity,
                                                                              • State agencies lacked methods for assessing
                   space heating, and transportation.
                                                                                the technical and financial feasibility of
Sample Community




                   The current use can be compared to the existing              projects
                   capacity and energy usages to determine the                • Coordination among state agencies was often
                   general resource size required for the community.            lacking
                   If a selected resource is much larger than the             • Features of an alternative technology were
                   community needs, an economic development                     poorly matched with a useful rural application
                   opportunity exists. For the community to achieve           • Unrealistic expectations existed about what an
                   the lowest price, the resource will need to be used          agency or technology could accomplish
                   to its maximum. In this case, additional loads             • Too much responsibility was delegated to
                   must be developed to match the capacity of the               contractors while the state often assumed the
                   energy resource. For example, if a geothermal                risk in performance of the project
                   source exists that is larger than the community
                   needs, the community could develop a fish cannery       Development of public/private partnerships is critical
                   and use an absorption chiller to make ice in the        for successful implementation, with recognition of
                   summer or grow vegetables under grow-lights in a        our respective strengths and weaknesses to ensure all
                   geothermally heated greenhouse in the winter.           parties are providing quality service to the effort.
                   Financing of energy projects is expected to be          Private sector development by electric utilities, native
                   a mix of bonds, loans, private equity, grants or        corporations, municipalities and other qualified entities
                   financial guarantees. To ensure the financial           will provide access to management, business and
                   success of energy projects, good business practices     operations expertise. Detailed business planning at
                   would require the creation of a project scope,          the local level will ensure the technical and financial
                   cost estimate, project business plan, management        feasibility of the projects. The business plans will be
                   team, design team, financing plan, and permitting       required in all applications for state assistance and be a
                   strategy. Business plan development will also be        core part of the evaluations by state agencies, similar to
                   necessary for grant and loan approval, with an          the Renewable Energy Fund - Request for Applications

                   12
How this Document Should be Used


evaluation and selection process. The local business      from Alaskans on the initial results and to obtain
plans will provide a tool to help identify and evaluate   additional input. These discussions are an important
the best application of an alternative resource. The      step in creating a regional vision for energy
risks and rewards must be balanced and shared by the      development that has local support and buy-in. The
private, public and construction sectors.                 AEA team will discuss specific local opportunities
                                                          and explain the use of the report in a large group
Engaging Alaskans                                         setting.
                                                          In addition to the public meetings, the AEA team
T    he AEA team will engage Alaskans through a
series of public meetings across the state. Regional
                                                          will meet with the local municipalities, utilities,
                                                          native corporations, and other groups with an
                                                          interest in resolving the Alaskan energy challenge.
meetings will be conducted in early 2009. The public
                                                          These discussions will be conducted in smaller
meetings will be used as an opportunity to explain
                                                          group settings and will help identify the people who
to local residents the use and the results of the
                                                          have passion, expertise, knowledge and a realistic
report. This is also an opportunity to obtain feedback
                                                          perspective for a specific resource and technology.




                                                                                                        13
How this Document Should be Used



                                                                           Akutan
                                                      Energy Used


                                                                               39%
                            Heat                       46%
                            Tr a nsp or t a t i on
                            El e c t r i c


                                                                         15%


                                                          Total:        $964   Per capita

                                                               Heat     $372   Per capita   POPULATION:         859

                                                     Transportation     $147   Per capita
Sample Community




                                                         Electricity:   $444   Per capita




                   14
                        Monday, January 12, 2009                               Akutan       Aleut Corporation     Page 1 of 5
How this Document Should be Used


                                                                                                         Regional Corporation


Akutan                                                                                                  Aleut Corporation
                                                                                                              House             37
                                                                                                              Senate :          S
 POPULATION                859      LATITUDE: 54d 08m N                    LONGITUDE: 165d 46m              Aleutians East Borough
LOCATION          Akutan is located on Akutan Island in the eastern Aleutians, one of the Krenitzin Islands of the Fox Island
                  group. It is 35 miles east of Unalaska, and 766 air miles southwest of Anchorage.
ECONOMY           Commercial fish processing dominates Akutan's cash-based economy, and many locals are seasonally
                  employed. Trident Seafoods operates a large processing plant west of the City for cod, crab, pollock and fish
                  meal. The population of Akutan can double during processing months. Seven residents hold commercial
                  fishing permits, primarily for halibut and other groundfish. Subsistence foods include seal, salmon, herring,
                  halibut, clams, wild cattle, and game birds.

HISTORY           Akutan began in 1878 as a fur storage and trading port for the Western Fur & Trading Company. The
                  company's agent established a commercial cod fishing and processing business that quickly attracted nearby
                  Unangan to the community. A Russian Orthodox church and a school were built in 1878. Alexander Nevsky
                  Chapel was built in 1918 to replace the original structure. The Pacific Whaling Company built a whale
                  processing station across the bay from Akutan in 1912. It was the only whaling station in the Aleutians, and
                  operated until 1939. After the Japanese attacked Unalaska in June 1942, the U.S. government evacuated
                  Akutan residents to the Ketchikan area. The village was re-established in 1944, although many villagers chose
                  not to return. This exposure to the outside world brought many changes to the traditional lifestyle and attitudes
                  of the community. The City was incorporated in 1979.




                                                                                                                                                   Sample Community
Current Energy Status                                     PCE

                                                                                      Estimated Local Fuel cost @ $110/bbl $4.71
Electric (Estimates based on PCE)
                                                                                                        /kw-hr
  Current efficiency              11.81 kW-hr/gal             Fuel COE $0.45        /kw-hr
                                                                                                  Estimated Diesel OM               $10,206
Consumption in 2007              48,913 gal                     Est OM $0.02        /kw-hr
                                                                                                Other Non-Fuel Costs:               $98,502
      Average Load                  58 kW                      NF COE: $0.19        /kw-hr
                                                                                                   Current Fuel Costs           $230,488
    Estimated peak load 116.51          kW                         Total    $0.66                      Total Electric
      Average Sales          510,306 kW-hours                                                                           $339,196
Space Heating (Estimated)
   2000 Census Data                           2008 Estimated Heating Fuel used: 56,012           gal
     Fuel Oil:      100%                      Estimated heating fuel cost/gallon    $5.71
       Wood:          0%                               $/MMBtu delivered to user $51.81                Total Heating Oil
   Electricity:                                 Community heat needs in MMBtu 6,721
                    0.0%                                                                                                $319,950

Transportation (Estimated)                                                                             Total Transportation
                  Estimated Diesel: 22,154      gal           Estimated cost $5.71
                                                                                                                        $126,547

                                                                             Energy Total                           $785,693



                                                                                                                                              15

Monday, January 12, 2009                                     Akutan                     Aleut Corporation             Page 2 of 5
How this Document Should be Used


                        Possible Upgrades to Current Power Plant
                          Power Plant - Performance Improvement to higher efficiency
                        Upgrade needed:                                                Capital cost $7,500
                          Semiannual Circuit Rider                              Annual Capital cost $628                             $0.00    /kw-hr

                              Status      Completed                             Estimated Diesel OM $10,206                          $0.02
                                                                                      New fuel cost $194,457                         $0.38                      Savings
                         Acheivable efficiency    14     kW-h
                                                                               Avg Non-Fuel Costs:      $108,708                     $0.19
                             New Fuel use 41,267                                                                                                       $35,402
                                                                                                   New cost of electricity           $0.55
                                                                                                                                 per kW-hr

                         Diesel Engine Heat Recovery
                        Heat Recovery System Installed?                             Capital cost     $163,112
                                     Is it working now?                               Annual ID       $13,663
                         BLDGs connected and working:
                                                                                    Annual OM           $3,262
                                                                    Value
                                                                                  Total Annual costs            $16,926                                         Savings
Sample Community




                           Water Jacket          7,337 gal          $41,910
                            Stack Heat              0 gal               $0                 Heat cost          $20.88 $/MMBtu                                $24,985


                        Alternative Energy Resources
                          Geothermal                                               Capital cost $38,500,000                        per kW-hr
                                                                                                                                                        Heat Cost
                                                                                                                                                        $/MMBtu :

                                Installed KW 5000                               Annual Capital $2,587,805                          $0.06               $18.22

                                   kW-hr/year 41610000                              Annual OM $1,155,000                           $0.03                $8.13
                                                                                     Fuel cost: $0                                 $0.00
                                       Site Name Akutan - Shallow
                                                                              Total Annual Cost $3,742,805                         $0.09               $26.36
                              Project Capatcity 200 MW
                                                                                                        Non-Fuel Costs             $0.21
                             Shallow Resource 0              Feet
                                                                                                        Alternative COE:           $0.30
                                Shallow Temp 99.00           C
                                                                                                   % Community energy 8154%                                 Savings
                                                                                                     New Community COE $7.55                           ($3,403,609)
                                                                                                       (includes non-fuel and diesel costs)


                          Geothermal                                               Capital cost $37,500,000                        per kW-hr
                                                                                                                                                        Heat Cost
                                                                                                                                                        $/MMBtu :

                                Installed KW 6000                               Annual Capital $2,520,589                          $0.05               $14.79

                                   kW-hr/year 49932000                              Annual OM $1,125,000                           $0.02                $6.60
                                                                                     Fuel cost: $0                                 $0.00
                                       Site Name Akutan - Deep
                                                                              Total Annual Cost $3,645,589                         $0.07               $21.39
                              Project Capatcity 200 MW
                                                                                                        Non-Fuel Costs             $0.21
                             Shallow Resource 0              Feet
                                                                                                        Alternative COE:           $0.29
                                Shallow Temp 99.00           C
                                                                                                   % Community energy 9785%                                 Savings
                                                                                                     New Community COE $7.36                           ($3,306,393)
                                                                                                       (includes non-fuel and diesel costs)

                   16
                        Monday, January 12, 2009                                      Akutan                        Aleut Corporation                    Page 3 of 5
How this Document Should be Used




Hydro                                   Capital cost $2,507,920                        per kW-hr
                                                                                                    Heat Cost
                                                                                                    $/MMBtu :

    Installed KW 197                 Annual Capital $97,472                            $0.17       $50.44

      kW-hr/year 566166                  Annual OM $55,200                             $0.10       $28.57
                                          Fuel cost: $0                                $0.00
               Site North Creek
                                   Total Annual Cost $152,672                          $0.27       $79.01
  Study plan effort feasibilty
                                                            Non-Fuel Costs             $0.21
      Plant Factor 69        %
                                                            Alternative COE:           $0.48
        Penetration 0.52
                                                      % Community energy 111%                           Savings
                                                          New Community COE $0.51                      $186,524
                                                           (includes non-fuel and diesel costs)


Hydro                                   Capital cost $2,509,760                        per kW-hr
                                                                                                    Heat Cost
                                                                                                    $/MMBtu :




                                                                                                                            Sample Community
    Installed KW 209                 Annual Capital $97,543                            $0.14       $40.76

      kW-hr/year 701186                  Annual OM $55,200                             $0.08       $23.07
                                          Fuel cost: $0                                $0.00
               Site Loud Creek
                                   Total Annual Cost $152,743                          $0.22       $63.83
  Study plan effort feasibility
                                                            Non-Fuel Costs             $0.21
      Plant Factor 77        %
                                                            Alternative COE:           $0.43
        Penetration 0.54
                                                      % Community energy 137%                           Savings
                                                          New Community COE $0.51                      $186,453
                                                           (includes non-fuel and diesel costs)


Wind Diesel Hybrid                      Capital cost $4,253,640                        per kW-hr
                                                                                                    Heat Cost
                                                                                                    $/MMBtu :

    Installed KW 600                 Annual Capital $285,911                           $0.23       $68.73

      kW-hr/year 1218860                 Annual OM $57,184                             $0.05       $13.75
                                          Fuel cost: $0                                $0.00
      Met Tower? no
                                   Total Annual Cost $343,096                          $0.28       $82.48
     Homer Data? yes
                                                            Non-Fuel Costs             $0.21
        Wind Class 7
                                                            Alternative COE:           $0.49
   Avg wind speed 8.50       m/s
                                                      % Community energy 239%                           Savings
                                                          New Community COE $0.89                           ($3,900)
                                                           (includes non-fuel and diesel costs)




                                                                                                                       17
Railbelt Region


o  pportunities and challenges in the Railbelt
Region differ from those in other parts of Alaska.
                                                            The complete Request for Proposals on the Regional
                                                           Integrated Resource Plan for the Railbelt Region of
The Railbelt electrical grid is defined as the service     Alaska can be found on the Alaska Energy Authority
areas of six regulated public utilities that extend        website, www.akenergyauthority.org.
from Fairbanks to Anchorage and the Kenai
                                                           The current generation mix includes a number of
Peninsula. These utilities are Golden Valley Electric
                                                           existing hydroelectric power plants that are operating
Association (GVEA); Chugach Electric Association
                                                           in the southern portion of the Railbelt. Two coal-
(CEA); Matanuska Electric Association (MEA);
                                                           fired power stations (one operational) are positioned
Homer Electric Association (HEA); Anchorage
                                                           within GVEA’s service area at Healy River, near
Municipal Light & Power (ML&P); the City of
                                                           extensive sub-bituminous coal resources available
Seward Electric System (SES); and Aurora Energy,
                                                           from the Usibelli coal mine.
LLC as an independent power producing utility.
Sixty five percent of Alaskan population lies within       The Cook Inlet gas basin still yields large quantities
the Railbelt region.                                       of natural gas for power generation and space
                                                           heating, but known reserves are now falling and
The southern portion of the Railbelt: Mat-Su Valley,       dropping field operating pressures are causing
Anchorage, and the Kenai Peninsula are highly              concern that the region may not be able to depend
dependent on natural gas as a source of electricity        on lower Cook Inlet for adequate gas supplies in
and heat. The northern portion of the Railbelt             the future. There are several proposals to construct
including Fairbanks and other communities in the           pipelines that could bring Alaskan North Slope
Interior relies on petroleum fuels in addition to          natural gas into the Railbelt. Consideration of these
natural gas, coal and hydroelectric electrical imports     potential fuel sources will be a part of the integrated
from the south. Petroleum fuels provide the majority       resource plan for the Railbelt.
of energy used for transportation across the entire
state.                                                     A number of future generation projects have also
                                                           been proposed, among them wind power projects,
Nearly all of the thermal generating capacity in the       large-scale and small-scale hydroelectric power
Railbelt is more than 20 years old, and much of            projects, Fischer-Tropsch plants, coal-fired power
it is more than 30 years old. The majority of the          stations, and turbines fired by fuel oil or natural gas
generation is predominately combustion turbine             turbines.
generation. There are five utilities to the south of the   Future fuel supplies for the Railbelt are diverse.
Alaska Range. GVEA is the sole utility to the north.       Near-term fuel supplies include natural gas from the
                                                           Lower Cook Inlet Basin, petroleum fuel supplies
A Regional Integrated Resource Plan (RIRP) is              from Fairbanks and Kenai Peninsula refineries, and
being developed to identify and evaluate the best          coal resources near Healy and Chuitna. Significant
resource mix to insure that least-cost options for         quantities of North Slope natural gas are also
electricity and heat are developed in the Railbelt         available, although there is no pipeline currently
region. The RIRP will be completed in late 2009            available to bring this gas to the Alaska Railbelt.
and will consider multiple energy options and              Trucking of LNG from the North Slope is being
make a recommendation on specific projects to be           investigated as an interim opportunity to use North
developed.                                                 Slope natural gas to reduce the cost of energy to the

 18
Railbelt Region


Fairbanks area. If the large-scale Alaska Natural Gas       Regional Integrated Resource Plan
Pipeline is constructed, then significant quantities of     (RIRP) for the Railbelt
natural gas will become available in Fairbanks. A
compendium of known reports, RCA orders, and                The goal of the Regional Integrated Resource Plan
other data are available on the AEA website at www.         for the Railbelt (RIRP) is to minimize future power
akenergyauthority.org/USOhomepage.html, via                 supply costs and maintain or improve current levels
the ‘Resource Documents’ link under the section,            of power supply reliability through the development
**Existing Railbelt Electric Grid data.                     of a single, comprehensive resource integration plan.
                                                            The plan will identify and schedule a combination of
The Susitna Hydro Evaluation                                generation and transmission (G&T) capital projects
                                                            over a 50-year time horizon.
Project
The large-scale Susitna Hydro Project was proposed
in the 1980s to provide hydroelectric power for
the Railbelt. It was evaluated extensively by the
state, but tabled in 1985 when oil prices dropped
precipitously. AEA is currently engaged in the re-
evaluation of the feasibility of this project. Historical
information about the Susitna Hydro Project is
available at http://www.akenergyauthority.org/
SusitnaReports.html.

AEA intends to complete these studies on or before
June 1, 2009. The RIRP for the Railbelt will require
consideration of information from the Susitna Hydro
Evaluation Project.

The Railbelt Electrical Grid
Authority Project
AEA recently completed the Railbelt Electrical Grid
Authority (REGA) Project, which recommends
business structures that will own, operate, maintain,
and control generation and transmission assets
throughout the Railbelt.1 The project considered                        Healy Clean Coal Project
several different energy futures for the Alaska
Railbelt, and a regional plan for generation and
transmission was part of this study. The final report
and other resource documents are available online at
http://www.akenergyauthority.org/REGAHomePage.
html.
                                                                                                             19
Railbelt Region


The plan is intended to provide:
  •	 An assessment of loads and demands for the          The RIRP will include consideration of the following
      Railbelt Electrical Grid for a time horizon of     energy sources:
      50 years, including new potential industrial
      demands;                                              •	 Healy Clean Coal Project
  •	 Projections for Railbelt electrical capacity           •	 Susitna Hydroelectric Project (including
      and energy growth, fuel prices, and resource             phased development)
      options;                                              •	 Chakachamna Hydroelectric Project
  •	 An analysis of the range of potential generation       •	 Fire Island Wind Power Project
      resources available, including costs, time for        •	 Eva Creek Wind Project
      construction, and long-term operating costs;          •	 Fairbanks Fischer-Tropsch Project (energy
  •	 A schedule for existing generation project                source and fuel source)
      retirement, new generation construction,              •	 Chuitna Coal Project (energy source and fuel
      and construction of backbone-redundant                   source)
      transmission lines that will allow the future         •	 Nenana Basin natural gas
      Railbelt Electrical Grid to operate reliably          •	 New gas reserves and exploration in Cook
      under open access tariffs, with a postage stamp          Inlet
      rate for electricity and demand for the entire        •	 North Slope natural gas Bullet Line
      Railbelt as a whole;                                  •	 LNG trucked from the North Slope to
  •	 A long-term schedule for developing new fuel              Fairbanks
      supplies that will provide for reliable, stably-
      priced electrical energy for a 50-year planning    In order to integrate Susitna development with
      horizon;                                           Railbelt Electrical Grid capacity and energy needs
  •	 A diverse portfolio of power supply that            the RIRP will consider a number of options for
      includes in appropriate portions renewable         bringing generation sources online, including the
      and alternative energy projects and fossil fuel    phased development of the Susitna Hydro Electric
      projects, some of which could be provided by       Project. The RIRP will also consider input from the
      independent power producers;                       Wind Integration Study currently being conducted
  •	 A comprehensive list of current and future          by AEA, and it will include an analysis of the role
      generation, transmission, and electric power       of demand side management rules and the ability to
      infrastructure projects, each one including a      reduce generation resource and energy requirements
      project description, narrative, location, fuel     if such programs are implemented.
      source, estimated annual fuel consumption,
      power output capacity, and energy output, both     The RIRP will also consider potential contributions
      annually and monthly.                              of a merchant power market, where energy needs
                                                         could be partially met by tenders from the Railbelt
For reasonable generation fuel supply configurations,    G&T entity for a portion of the power supply needs.
the RIRP will develop and recommend up to three          The RIRP process will analyze a range from 0% to
feasible resource plan scenarios, complete with          25% of power needs being supplied by merchant
assessment of costs and benefits, and collective and     power suppliers (Independent Power Producers).
individual impacts on utility tariffs.


   20
The RIRP will also consider a scenario where in
10 years all Railbelt G&T assets will be owned,
controlled, maintained, and operated by a single
business entity.

Transmission planning for the RIRP will begin with
the most recent Chugach and GVEA transmission
plans integrated into an overall interconnected grid
development. It will be assumed that transmission
projects will be accomplished cooperatively with the
serving distribution utility whose service area the
transmission line must traverse.

The RIRP will consider future industrial loads
compared to a baseline load growth (demand and
energy requirements) scenario, that assumes Railbelt
development without new, heavy industrial high
power demand. An evaluation of potential future
industrial projects for the Railbelt and of incremental
costs identified for increasing G&T capabilities to
supply industrial loads will be completed. This
will include the Donlin Creek mining projects
and the Pebble Mining project as possible grid
interconnected loads, as well as a third, undefined
but similarly sized industrial project.




                                                          21
Energy in Alaska


Introduction
It is difficult to conceive many human activities that     43% of total energy end-use in Alaska, however a
do not in some way depend on affordable, reliable          large portion is used for international flights and is
energy. Whether it is providing fuel for our vehicles,     not actually consumed in-state. An additional 484
electricity and heat for our homes, or energy for the      Mmbtu can be attributed to energy used for oil and
production and transportation of the products we use       gas production in 2006, and while this was energy
daily, almost everything we do depends on a constant       consumed in-state, a vast majority of the product
supply of energy. Inexpensive energy has helped            was shipped out of state as crude oil exports.
our society create wealth and, as an energy exporting
state, is a cornerstone of our economy.                    Alaska is also home to tremendous untapped or
                                                           underutilized energy resources, including some of
The United States uses more energy per capita than         the highest concentrations of fossil and renewable
any other country in the world, and Alaska as a state      energy resources on earth. In addition to the well-
has the highest per capita energy use in the nation        known oil and natural gas resources on the North
at 1112 Mmbtu per person. This is more than three          Slope and in Cook Inlet, Alaska’s proven coal re-
times higher than the national average of 333 Mmb-         serves represent the 4th largest fossil energy resource
tus, and is in part due to our climate, with long cold     in the world. Alaska also has significant undevel-
winters throughout most of the state requiring more        oped geothermal resources in the Aleutian Island
energy for heating homes. However, our geographic          volcanic arc, abundant untapped hydropower, wind,
location and oil and gas industry also contribute          and biomass resources, and the majority of the tidal
significantly. For example, almost 32 million bar-         and wave power potential in the United States.
rels of jet fuel were used in 2006. Jet fuel constitutes



                   How Much Energy Does the
                     Average Alaskan Use?

               A long distance sled dog puts out 5 kW,
               or 17 Mmbtus, based on a 10,000 kcal/
               day diet during a typical day on the
               Yukon Quest or Iditarod. This means
               that in order to generate the amount of
               energy needed by each Alaskan every
               day, we need the equivalent effort of 65
               Iditarod sled dogs.




  22
Total Annual Energy Consumption per Capita
                                                                                                  Energy in Alaska




     Data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), based on 2006 values.




23
24
                                                                               Energy in Alaska




     Energy diagram produced by the Alaska Center for Energy and Power based
     on data from ISER, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, the U.S.
     Army Corp of Engineers, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration
Energy in Alaska



Energy Flow in Alaska
In order to reduce the cost of energy for Alaskans, it              tricity, where on average 66% of the energy used by
is important to understand how energy is produced                   our power plants is dissipated as waste heat.
and how it is used. The energy flow diagram on the
opposite page describes the inputs for Alaska energy                It is also interesting to note that since 2001 (the last
consumption, as well as the amount used by the                      time ISER completed an energy flow diagram for the
residential, commercial, industrial, and transporta-                state), residential energy use increased by 18% while
tion sectors. While the values used in this diagram                 the state population increased by only 7%. This
are based on 2006 data, the only recent significant                 shows that we are not doing a good job impelement-
change in major energy use patterns is the closing of               ing energy efficiency measures at the level of the
the Agrium Fertilizer plant on the Kenai Peninsula,                 individual home owner, which should be the lowest
which has eliminated urea exports out of the state.                 cost and consequently the first area addressed when
                                                                    seeking opportunities for reducing the cost of energy.
Energy flow diagrams are useful for visualizing
where energy comes from and where it goes. They                     Unfortunately, the picture of energy flow for the
also demonstrate the inefficiencies associated with                 entire state of Alaska does little to show what is hap-
various energy conversion technologies as energy is                 pening in any particular region, let alone in a single
‘lost’ between the developed resources (left side of                community. For example, a large fraction of the
diagram = 2173 trillion btus), energy exports (top of               hydropower is produced in southeast Alaska, while
the diagram = 1435 trillion btus), energy consumed                  natural gas is a large component of energy supply in
(right hand side = 363 trillion btus), and energy                   the Anchorage area and Kenai Peninsula, as well as a
imported (bottom of the diagram = 70 trillion btus).                few communities on the North Slope. Coal is solely
This is particularly evident in the production of elec-             used in Interior Alaska for both power generation
                                                                    and heating.




            What is 1 trillion btus?
             The units used for the energy flow diagram are in trillion btus (British Thermal Units), where 1 btu
             is the energy required to raise 1 pound of water 1 degree Fahrenheit. Another way to understand
             what a trillion btus represents is that each Alaskan uses nearly 1 million BTUs per day; so 1 trillion
             BTUs is about enough energy for a day and a half of energy use for all of Alaska.
             Alaska’s total energy consumption in 2006 = 419 trillion btus divided into the following sectos:

                 •	   Residential 45 Trillion BTUs
                 •	   Commercial 45 Trillion BTUs
                 •	   Industrial 26 Trillion BTUs
                 •	   Transportation 263 Trillion BTUs




                                                                                                                        25
Energy in Alaska




26
Energy in Alaska


Historical Trends in Energy Consumption
Using data on the consumption of energy from the                 the late 1960s, and by the early 1980s natural gas
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), we                 was the predominant source of energy used in Alas-
can track the amount of energy used in Alaska since              ka. When oil and gas production began on the North
statehood. These estimates of consumption from the               Slope in the late 1970s, natural gas consumption by
EIA also include energy used during oil and gas ex-              industrial users increased dramatically because it
traction processes, and jet fuel from international air          was used to power North Slope operations. All other
travel. The graph below shows the gross consump-                 fuels, including diesel, motor gasoline, jet fuel, and
tion of energy in Alaska from 1960 through 2006.                 coal, have contributed relatively stable shares of total
Oil and gas production began in Cook Inlet during                energy consumption per capita in the state.




           Chart created by ISER based on data from the United
           Stated Energy Information Administration




                                                                                                                      27
Energy in Alaska


Putting the Cost of Energy in Context
While energy and its cost to our communities are the      is clear, what is less definitive is whether these rising
main focuses of this document, the context of energy      costs directly correlate to out-migration from rural to
within the social framework of Alaskan communi-           urban areas, and out of the state completely.
ties must also be considered. Energy is ultimately a
tool used to achieve a certain quality of life. Energy    ISER recently completed a study that indicates
heats homes, runs appliances, provides light, fuels       migration from rural to urban areas of the state is a
our vehicles, and powers communication equipment,         long-term trend caused by a number of factors and
among other applications. With this fact in mind it       that it has been occurring for generations in some
is clear that state energy planning must look at more     parts of the state. There has also been a small net
than simply reducing the cost of energy in communi-       migration out of the state since 2002. Many factors
ties throughout the state. The planning effort must       contribute to this trend, including the overall high
also look at the much more complex goal of improv-        cost of living in Alaska. In general, people migrate
ing and sustaining the quality of life across the state   to improve their lives by increasing their access to
to retain a stable population base, and diversify the     opportunities such as better paying jobs, education
economy.                                                  for themselves and their children, and a lower cost of
                                                          living. It is possible that the current spike in energy
The statement has often been made that many Alas-         costs may serve as a tipping point, or final straw
kan rural communities are dying, and this is fre-         stressing rural residents to the point where the deci-
quently attributed to the high cost of energy in those    sion to leave is finally made. This decision is also
locations. It is easy to document the fact that resi-     frequently influenced by other considerations: the
dents in most rural communities spend a dispropor-        lack of adequate housing, lack of well paying jobs,
tionate percentage of their gross income on energy        and deterioration of social networks due to prior out-
when compared to the more urban areas of the state.       migrations and other social issues.
According to ISER, in 2006 rural residents spent
approximately 9.9% of their total income for energy-      In fact, an attitudinal survey of 600 Alaska Natives
related expenses, an increase from 6.6% in 2000,          and 302 non-Natives who had moved from rural to
and there has almost certainly been a further increase    urban areas of Alaska was conducted by the First
since 2006.                                               Alaskans Insitute in 2007. It indicated that for 65%
                                                          of survey participants, nothing would motivate them
While this trend is most apparent in rural Alaska,        to return to rural Alaska. This is presumably due to
the rising cost of energy is affecting Alaskans in all    a lack of real or perceived opportunities for them-
regions of the state. Southeast Alaska and Kodiak,        selves and their families, which combined with the
which largely benefit from stable electric costs from     high cost of living, reduced the overall attractiveness
hydropower, are still being effected by the high cost     of their community of origin.
of space heating. The Fairbanks area has seen a dra-
matic increase in both space heating and electricity      In the technology screening database developed as
costs. Even in the Anchorage area average residen-        part of this document, the cost-to-benefit analyses of
tial natural gas prices increased 27% in one year,        energy projects in each community are based solely
from 2006 to 2007. While the rising cost of energy        on the potential for displacing diesel fuel. There is

  28
Energy in Alaska



no consideration included for the impact of any single
project on the overall economic health of a commu-
nity, such as the potential for new jobs, businesses, or
industries. However, even though the database does
not quantify those impacts, they exist. Examples in-
clude jobs created by harvesting and processing wood
for a biomass energy project, the development of a
greenhouse business based on low-cost heat from a
geothermal development project and the stabilization
of energy prices through the use of local renewable
resources.

An energy project could also have a positive im-
pact on the social health of a community. Examples
include a more stable employment base, educational
opportunities for local students and the perception that
energy prices are becoming more stable. It is usu-
ally the communities that already have strong leader-
ship and cohesive social structures that will be most
successful in implementing new projects, and those
communities tend to be larger.



For more information:
Fuel Costs, Migration, and Community Viability Colt,
S. and Martin, S., University of Alaska Anchorage, In-
stitute of Social and Economic Research, May 2008.

Engaging community knowledge to measure progress:
Rural development performance measures progress
report Alaska Native Policy Center (September, 2007),
Prepared for the Denali Commission, available at http://
www.firstalaskans.org/documents_fai/A.%20RDPM%20
Report.pdf




                                                           29
Energy in Alaska


Current Energy Costs and Future Projections
Crude Oil and Fuel Products                                 Crude Oil Price Forecast
Crude oil is a global commodity, and crude oil prices       The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Informa-
are determined by global supply and demand. Apart           tion Administration produces long-term price fore-
from an allowance for tanker transportation costs           casts in its Annual Energy Outlook. The most recent
and quality differentials, it makes sense to speak of       publication was June 2008. In the AEO2008 refer-
the world price of oil. Alaskans can do nothing to          ence case, the world oil price path reaches a low of
impact this price.                                          $57 per barrel in 2016 and then increases to about
                                                            $70 in 2030 (2006 dollars).
There is no price for Alaska crude oil on the New
York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) or other com-              In the high-price case, with the price of imported
modity exchanges. The spot price of Alaska North            crude oil rising to $119 per barrel (2006 dollars) in
Slope (ANS) crude oil is calculated by subtracting          2030, the average price of U.S. motor gasoline in-
a market differential from the price of West Texas          creases rapidly to $3.06 per gallon in 2016 and $3.52
Intermediate (WTI) quoted on the NYMEX. Four                per gallon in 2030. In the low-price case, gasoline
different assessment services estimate that market          prices decline to a low of $1.74 per gallon in 2016,
differential and report a daily spot price for ANS.         increase slowly through the early 2020s, and level
                                                            off at about $1.84 per gallon through 2030 (see Fig-
Fuel oil (also often called diesel) is one of several       ure 1 on the following page).
products distilled from crude oil and used for heat-
ing fuel or engine fuel. Alaskans use a number of           It is important to note that in the past, EIA forecasts
petroleum products, including motor gasoline, diesel        have not proven to be overly accurate. This is in part
fuel #1, diesel fuel #2, aviation gasoline, and jet         because a large number of factors, some unpredict-
fuel. Motor gasolines are used in automobiles, small        able, can affect crude oil prices on the world market.
boats, and snowmachines; there are typically three
grades of gasoline available (mostly in larger com-         Current Crude Oil Price Trends
munities in Alaska). Diesel fuel #1 is a kerosene           The EIA also publishes the Short Term Energy
product used for heating fuel. Diesel fuel #2 is a          Outlook. The next one will be published in January,
light gas-oil used for home and commercial heating          2009. According to the October 2008 report, strong
and as a motor fuel. Aviation gasoline and jet fuel         global demand and low surplus production capacity
are used to fuel aircraft, but a type of jet fuel is also   contributed to the run-up to record crude oil prices
often used for home heating. According to Crowley           in July. The current slowdown in economic growth
Marine, one of Alaska’s largest fuel distributors,          is contributing to the recent decline in oil demand
most of the diesel fuel in more populated areas like        and the sharp decline in prices since July. According
Southcentral Alaska and Fairbanks is ultra low sulfur       to the December 8 report, the current global eco-
diesel. Most villages in Western Alaska still use low       nomic slowdown is now projected to be more severe
sulfur diesel because they are exempt from the ultra        and longer than in last month’s Outlook, leading to
low sulfur diesel requirement until 2011.                   further reductions of global energy demand and addi-
                                                            tional declines in crude oil and other energy prices.


 30
Energy in Alaska



                      $140.00


                      $120.00


                      $100.00
Dollars per Barrel
  (2006 dollars)




                       $80.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Figure 1. Energy Infor-
                       $60.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                         mation Administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Crude Oil Price Forecast
                       $40.00


                       $20.00


                        $0.00
                                1980

                                         1983

                                                   1986

                                                             1989

                                                                       1992

                                                                                  1995

                                                                                            1998

                                                                                                         2001

                                                                                                                    2004

                                                                                                                              2007

                                                                                                                                        2010

                                                                                                                                                 2013

                                                                                                                                                           2016

                                                                                                                                                                    2019

                                                                                                                                                                              2022

                                                                                                                                                                                        2025

                                                                                                                                                                                                  2028
                                                                               Reference                              High price                          Low price




                      $160.00


                      $140.00


                      $120.00
 Dollars per Barrel
  (nominal dollars)




                      $100.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Figure 2. Energy Infor-
                       $80.00                                                                                                                                                                            mation Administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Short-Term Crude Oil
                       $60.00                                                                                                                                                                            Price Forecast
                       $40.00


                       $20.00

                        $0.00
                                Jan-04




                                                           Jan-05




                                                                                       Jan-06




                                                                                                                     Jan-07




                                                                                                                                                 Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-09
                                                  Sep-04




                                                                              Sep-05




                                                                                                           Sep-06




                                                                                                                                        Sep-07




                                                                                                                                                                   Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-09
                                         May-04




                                                                    May-05




                                                                                                May-06




                                                                                                                               May-07




                                                                                                                                                          May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                     May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         31
Energy in Alaska


The monthly average price of West Texas Interme-
diate (WTI) crude oil has fallen by more than half
between July and November, reflecting the fallout
from the rapid decline in world petroleum demand.
The annual average WTI price is now projected to be
$100 per barrel in 2008 and $51 in 2009. The OPEC
oil cartel met on December 17, 2008 and agreed to
reduce production by 2.2 million barrels per day,
their largest decrease ever, to boost prices. Whether
all producers adhere to the reductions and whether
the reductions stem the price slide or raise prices are
yet to be seen. Figure 2 on the previous page shows
the EIA short-term price forecast.




 32
History of Energy Policy in Alaska


A     laska has a history of energy planning and poli-
cy development dating from statehood in 1959. That
                                                                   in the 1960s. Demand for petroleum products has
                                                                   continued to expand with the introduction of electric
history still holds some relevance today by demon-                 utilities and other infrastructure such as schools and
strating both successful and less successful energy                water treatment plants.
program implementation. This section provides a
brief synopsis of past efforts in energy planning and              Today most rural communities generate electricity
implementation of those plans, including some of the               with centralized diesel systems. Petroleum fuels
lessons learned.                                                   provide the bulk of all energy for electricity, space
                                                                   heating and transportation. Costs are high due to the
Overview of Rural Energy                                           expense of moving fuel to rural Alaska and the small
                                                                   scale of operations. The high costs have motivated
Although electricity first appeared in some rural                  residents to use less and mean rural energy consump-
Alaska villages as a result of military, cannery, min-             tion is lower than in urban areas.
ing, or logging operations, its introduction into many
villages began only in the late 1950s as the BIA                   Rural Energy Policy 1979-1985
installed small generators for lighting its schools.1
This electricity was not available to households, and              In 1979, under Governor Jay Hammond, the state
few villages had central power supplies before the                 articulated its first energy policy that included the
mid-1970s. The exceptions were larger rural com-                   following principles:
munities such as Bethel, Nome, Dillingham, and
Kotzebue.                                                             1) Equitable distribution of Alaska’s energy wealth
                                                                      2) Improved efficiency of production and delivery
Electrification began to spread more rapidly in                       3) State planned and funded facility construction
the 1970s, but an estimated 85 rural communities,                     4) Technical assistance in conservation and
most with less than 200 residents, were still without                     management
central power supply systems in 1975. Over the                        5) Support for development of locally oriented
next 10 years the state provided local communities a                      energy technologies
large number of grants for electrification, and by the                6) Public participation and local input in energy
mid-1980s most remote communities had centralized                        planning decisions
diesel power facilities.                                           Several conditions at the start of the 1980s heavily
                                                                   influenced development of this energy policy. This
The demand for diesel and other petroleum products                 included the concept that developing cheap power,
in rural Alaska originated with the introduction of                primarily through investment in hydropower projects
outboard motors in the 1940s and snowmobiles in                    such as Susitna and Bradley Lake as well as various
the 1960s. This demand expanded when the BIA and                   projects in Southeast Alaska, would stimulate eco-
Alaska State Housing Authority began constructing                  nomic development. It was also assumed that state
conventional western housing in rural communities                  revenues from the newly producing oil field at


1. This historic account through the 1990s is partially extracted from Scott Goldsmith, Short (and Informal) Review of Alaska
Rural Energy Policy, with Particular Reference to Alternative Technologies, prepared for the Denali Commission, May 24, 1999.
                                                                                                                                33
History of Energy Policy in Alaska


Prudhoe Bay could provide the money needed to            (peat, biomass, solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, hydro-
bankroll these huge investments. The high price of       gen, fuel cells, heat pumps, and waste heat recovery)
oil and the expectation that it would continue to rise   that the division would be investigating in the hope
also led to the assumption that there would be no        that some would be appropriate for rural Alaska.
shortage of money. (In 2008 dollars the 1981 price of
crude oil was close to $60 per barrel)                   By the time the 1982 plan was written, the Division
                                                         of Energy, together with the Alaska Power Authority,
Of particular importance to rural communities were       had spent $12.6 million on geothermal, wind, wood,
the following considerations:                            peat, single-ground-wire transmission, waste heat,
 • A way to spread the wealth from oil to all            weatherization, organic rankine generators, and tidal
   residents would be to make electricity available      energy. The state departments of Transportation and
   and cheap for all Alaska communities, including       Public Facilities and Environmental Conservation
   those in the bush.                                    also conducted alternative energy studies. Hydro-
                                                         electric studies fell into their own category.
• The high price of crude oil meant that the price of
  diesel fuel, the source of most of the energy for      The progress of those investigations can be traced
  rural Alaska, was oppressively expensive -             through the early 1980s by reference to each suc-
  particularly in relation to costs in urban areas.      ceeding State Long Term Energy Plan. These docu-
  Many urban places were somewhat insulated by           ments reflect the evolution of policy over time,
  existing hydro facilities or by availability of        partially through changes in administrative structure,
  natural gas, which was not tied to the price of oil.   and tend to be forward looking. Consequently, they
• The fear of oil embargoes gave rise to the idea        include only a limited amount of information about
  of self sufficiency of energy supply, which meant      the successes, failures, and lessons learned from
  the use of locally available sources of energy         money spent on existing projects, including invest-
  rather than the use of imported diesel.                ments in alternative energy.

•     The national initiative to develop alternative
                                                         What Did The State Learn About Rural Energy?
      energy and implement conservation measures
                                                         After gaining experience with renewable resource
      meant that a lot of money from the federal gov-
                                                         exploration and development in the early 1980s, sev-
      ernment was available to consider alternative
                                                         eral conclusions were reached. These included:
      means of providing electricity in rural Alaska.
                                                         Resource Assessment:
In 1980 the state began spending large amounts of
                                                           • Geothermal resources are site specific and ex-
money collecting data on energy resource avail-
                                                             pensive to develop
ability and energy use, conducting studies of hydro
                                                           • Wood is an excellent substitute for fuel oil
potential and investigating the potential for alter-
                                                           • Alaska has vast resources of peat, but technical
native energy sources, particularly for the state’s
                                                              expertise and infrastructure for its economical
smaller communities. For example, the 1981 State
                                                              use are not in place
Long Term Energy Plan (the first of six such plans)
                                                           • Wind resources need more study
described the activities of the newly formed Divi-
                                                           • Seasonal fluctuations restrict the viability of
sion of Energy within the Department of Commerce.
                                                              solar power
Prominent was a list of the alternative energy sources
                                                           • Tidal power has limited applicability
 34
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence
Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence

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Alaska Energy: A First Step Toward Energy Independence

  • 1. ALASKA ENERGY A first step toward energy independence. A Guide for Alaskan Communities to Utilize Local Energy Resources January 2009 Prepared by: Alaska Energy Authority Alaska Center for Energy and Power 1
  • 2. Copyright Information: This publication for a Statewide Energy Plan was produced by the Alaska Energy Authority per legislative appropriation. The report was printed at a cost of $12.00 per copy 2 in black and white, and $58.00 per copy in color in Anchorage, Alaska by Standard Register.
  • 3. Table of Contents 6 Sustainable Energy for Alaskans 8 How this Document Should be Used 17 Railbelt Region 22 Energy in Alaska 33 History of Energy Policy in Alaska 38 Current Energy Policy and Planning in Alaska 44 Policies with Energy Implications 55 Permitting 57 Technology Chapters 58 Diesel Efficiency and Heat Recovery 74 Efficiency (End-Use) 84 Hydroelectric 101 Wind 120 Biomass 135 Geothermal 150 Heat Pumps 156 Solar 161 Coal 168 Natural Gas 175 Delivery 179 Energy Storage 190 Hydrokinetic/Tidal 204 Wave 211 Nuclear 217 Coal Bed Methane 223 Fuel Cells 224 Alternative Fuels 232 Explanation of Database Methodology 240 Glossary 242 Units of Measure 243 Acronyms - List of Organizations 244 Acknowledgements 3
  • 4. T he narrative and model in this report are designed to provide information to engage Alaskans who have a passion to provide energy solutions, stimulate the Alaskan economy and provide leadership for the benefit of all Alaskans. Alaska has had many high-quality energy plans written over the years, but none ever gained traction to come to fruition. To increase the likelihood that energy solutions will become a reality, the new approach will engage Alaskans in the solution and invite their active participation in the selection and ownership of their alternative energy sources. The safe approach to conducting this work would have been to hire a consultant. With some risk but a large increase in the service to Alaskans, the Alaska Energy Authority chose to utilize the expertise of in-house staff. This personal accountability by the professionals at AEA will help ensure Alaskans have access to energy information and a single location they can work with to resolve their energy challenges and opportunities. As more information becomes available, the information will be placed in the energy model for use by decision makers long into the future. Steven Haagenson Statewide Energy Coordinator 4
  • 5. 5
  • 6. Sustainable Energy for Alaskans W e Alaskans live in a magnificent state that has many blessings when it comes to energy, but also dependence on petroleum. This effort must be approached as a team effort, where each participant, some curses. Alaskans live in a state with abundant private or public, can provide value for permitting, energy resources, but are hampered by long distances construction, applied research and development, and low usages. natural resource management, financing, workforce development in management, design, business, The Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) has developed construction, operations, economic development, this document to act as a first step toward energy wealth retention, and leadership. independence for Alaskans. The document contains two main sections - a narrative which you are Alaska Energy - First Steps reading now, and a technology screening tool we have developed to allow each community to review locally available resources and determine the least- The first step in creating this document was to cost energy options based on the delivered cost of identify each community’s current energy needs energy to residents. for electrical generation, space heating, and transportation. It is important to know these values Energy use in each community is composed of three as they provide a reference or measuring stick major components: electricity, space heating, and against which we can measure alternatives. Electric transportation. The relative level of use and cost for power usage was obtained directly from current PCE each of these components differs across Alaska. For reports, while heating oil and transportation was instance, Anchorage residents pay comparatively estimated by the Institute of Social and Economic less for electricity and space heating, but more for Research (ISER) based on modeling. transportation due to heavy dependence on vehicle travel. Rural Alaskans see lower vehicle travel, AEA conducted 28 Town Hall Meetings across the but have much higher costs for heating oil and state, engaging many Alaskans through the process electricity. of seeking answers to three fundamental questions: 1) What resources near your community - where All of America is struggling with the high cost of you live, work, play, fish, and hunt - could possibly energy, but Alaskans have the resources, the ability, be developed to help lower energy costs? 2) What and the motivation to create long-term solutions that resources should not be developed? 3) Why not? will greatly benefit our children and grandchildren. AEA’s goal in developing the Alaska Energy Plan is The information gathered from these Town Hall to reduce the cost of energy to all Alaskans through Meetings was used to develop a resources matrix deployment of energy technologies that are vertically for each community. Potential resources identified integrated, economic, long-term stably priced, and included hydroelectric, in-river hydro, wind, solar, sustainable. wave, tidal, biomass, geothermal, municipal waste, natural gas, propane, coal, diesel, coal bed methane, In order to achieve this goal, we will be engaging and nuclear. Also identified were opportunities Alaskans throughout the state who have the expertise for gasification and production of Fischer-Tropsch and passion to use local resources to reduce their liquids. 6
  • 7. Sustainable Energy for Alaskans For each resource, AEA formed Technology Teams made up of people with expertise and a passion for energy solutions who were asked to identify technologies options and limitations for each identified resource. The Alaska Center for Energy and Power (ACEP) at the University of Alaska was brought in initially to help guide the technology discussions, and ultimately went above and beyond in their work on the narrative and the comparative database. Appropriate technologies for each fuel have been identified. Capital and operations and maintenance costs for each technology have been determined and adjusted by region through use of factors developed by HMS Construction Cost Consultants. The net result is a focusing tool that will provide each community with a high-level snapshot of the least-cost options for electricity, space heating, and transportation for their community. Prices will be based on a delivered cost that includes capital cost for infrastructure. The delivered cost number can be used to quickly compare the alternative energy options to diesel fuel based on a range ($50-$150) of crude oil prices. This first step in the ongoing Energy Plan is intended to provide a high-level tool to focus each community on its relative options for generating electricity and heat through the use of locally available resources. This is an important step in developing a community, regional, and statewide energy plan. This process is intended to occur in stages, and it allows the state to provide assistance with maximum support and buy-in from Alaskans. Starting at the local level and using this plan as a building block to develop regional and statewide energy plans, the goal is to engage citizens directly in developing energy solutions for Alaska. 7
  • 8. How this Document Should be Used T he illustration on this page shows a sample community energy meter. The energy meter is part within the cost range for diesel equivalent with crude oil between $50/bbl and $150/bbl. The $50-$150 of the technology screening tool and allows for a range is considered the Yellow Zone and can include quick comparison between alternative energy options the entire range of energy alternatives. based on a range of future crude oil prices for each Some communities have options that exceed community in the state. As part of this screening the diesel equivalent of $150/bbl. This range is analysis, current electric and space heating costs are considered the Red Zone and indicates resources compared on a total cost basis with capital, operation that are probably not cost-effective to develop at and maintenance (O&M), and fuel costs for various this time. If no other resources exist, a broader technologies. The focus is on near-term, commercial, regional evaluation should be conducted to search and proven for available options technologies, in nearby communities although an with Green or Yellow assessment Zone resources. The of some pre- high cost is likely a commercial or function of the size of potential future the community, or the options are also distance to available included. resources. The options for In some communities, each community the resource capability are compared with is much larger than the current cost of the current energy energy as well as requirements of the a diesel equivalent community. For range of $50/bbl resources developed to crude oil (low their full capacity but projection) to $150/bbl (high projection). There only using a portion of the energy, the cost would are many communities with access to alternative be high and could shift into the Red Zone. This is resources that can potentially provide energy at a the case with some of the larger hydroelectric and cost below the diesel equivalent of $50/bbl crude oil. geothermal resources. In this case, the community A sub $50 resource is defined as the Green Zone and could look at ways to use excess capacity from the can include wood (biomass) heat and wind/diesel resource to spur economic growth opportunities and options in the short term, as well as hydroelectric or lower the cost of energy to residents. geothermal options in the long term. The projection indicates that a Green Zone option alternative could There are several communities that do not have any reduce energy costs even when crude oil is at $150/ viable alternative energy resources. This finding bbl. demonstrates the need to follow up with regional evaluations to assess potential alternatives beyond For most communities, the resource options fall the immediate area of the community. It is also 8
  • 9. How this Document Should be Used likely that some communities are too small or too and engage these entities in developing long- remote, and the most economic answer would be term energy solutions. Local buy-in will permit to continue to use diesel fuel for the forseeable more focused regional feedback to the legislature, future. However, this analysis indicates that most thus insuring that the best options are being communities have at least one opportunity to reduce recommended for approval. The screening tool is diesel use, even if solely through implementing also designed to be continually updated as more efficiency measures. information is available. In this way it will serve as a valuable tool for the legislature and governor We believe that use of local resources will help when they consider energy requests in future capital stabilize local economies by developing jobs to budgets. build, operate, and maintain energy systems. Local jobs will also be created where fuel collection, The focus of this work is on the non-Railbelt processing, and transportation are required. In this portions of Alaska. That is where the need to way, the dollars currently spent on diesel fuel could reduce energy costs is greatest. The Railbelt will be recirculated within a community and used to be addressed through an Integrated Resource Plan strengthen the economic base. (IRP), which will evaluate multiple energy sources and delivery systems. It is likely that the solution The next step is to engage Alaskans at the regional for the Railbelt will be a combination of available level to discuss results from this screening tool. resources such as large hydroelectric projects, These regional meetings will provide a forum for natural gas supplies, pipelines, biomass, wind, and additional community input. Meetings will also be conducted with utilities, municipalities, and native geothermal systems. corporations to develop public/private partnerships 9
  • 10. How this Document Should be Used A laska has abundant resources and Alaskans have enjoyed relatively low-cost diesel prior to the pricing to shift from diesel as much as possible, even when prices are low, if we are to avoid high costs in the surge in 2007 that extended through the summer of future. 2008. When fuel prices are low and stable, interest This document can provide insight into the energy in the use of locally available alternative fuels is opportunities that lie ahead for Alaskans. The low. When prices spike, interest likewise becomes technology screening database is based on data high, but the opportunity to use lower-cost fuels collected from numerous sources throughout the may not exist without proper planning, research, state. Where data has not been collected, models and development. During oil price spikes in the were developed to approximate the missing data. 1980s, there was much interest in alternative energy For example, ISER developed a model to predict the across the nation, including Alaska. Nevertheless, amount of heating oil used for spacing heating and projects such as the Susitna Hydroelectric Dam were vehicular transportation by community. canceled when crude oil dropped to $9.00 per barrel. Data pertaining to population change and Power We have recently seen the price of crude drop from Cost Equalization has also been incorporated and is $124/bbl to $28/bbl, and lower, in a reduction felt to be reliable and accurate. similar to the one in the 1980s. This drop in oil prices hits Alaska doubly hard, as a reduction in The cost estimates contained in this report were state revenue limits funds available to develop the conducted at the conceptual level with no site- necessary infrastructure needed to switch to lower- specific design or scope development. Cost cost fuels when crude oil prices again rise. The estimates were based on similar historical energy general consensus is that oil prices will again rise, projects constructed in Alaska, vendor estimates, but there is on-going debate about the future price of and historical studies and reports for specific crude oil and the long-term volatility. Alaska is an applications. These need to be recognized for oil-producing and exporting state, but there are many what they are: high level conceptual cost estimates. external factors that will increase or decrease crude The recommendations are based on the best data oil pricing. In a global market with large consumers currently available, but detailed site specific cost like India and China, Alaskans will be riding the estimates must be completed prior to project market roller coaster with little influence on the final selection to determine more accurate values. price determination. What can be controlled in this energy world? Alaska has numerous energy resources and the power to choose its fuel supplies. A method is needed to place these choices in perspective. Public awareness needs to increase. There may be energy options that can provide lower-cost energy than today’s $50/bbl oil. Resources that could be used to power and heat Alaskan communities and provide opportunities for local economic development should not sit unused. Alaskans must make the commitment 10
  • 11. How this Document Should be Used T he technology screening tool exists in two sections. The first is the energy meter page for a fast A community can select its fast scan sheet and look for resources in the Green Zone. If resources exist scan of local resources. The second is in a numeric in the Green Zone, this is an indication that local results format for a more in-depth analysis of the resources might provide a less expensive stable- data. priced energy source, even if the cost of crude oil were to rise. Green Zone resources should be The energy meter page has been prepared for every reviewed for projected construction costs and time, community in Alaska located “outside” the Railbelt since the most economic projects, such as hydro or region. The numbers are reported as specific values geothermal, tend to have a longer construction time. for convenience, but in actuality contain a high If all Green Zone projects have long construction degree of uncertainty as a result of incomplete times, look at the Yellow Zone for resource options data, conceptual cost estimates and estimates with a shorter delivery schedule. based on models. They are intended to provide an approximate value for the delivered cost of energy The Yellow Zone is the range of possible crude from a particular resource. Prior to finalization of pricing we have seen over the past few months. an energy resource selection, a detailed site-specific Predicting crude oil prices can be risky if not cost estimate must be done to determine actual impossible. The recent reduction in crude prices is project costs for financing and benefits evaluation. believed to be temporary, but exactly when and how much prices will rise is not known. If resources The energy meter page has two meter faces, one for exist in the Yellow Zone, this indicates that the the cost of electricity and one for the cost of space alternative resource may not be economic unless heating. The meter dial has three colors, green, crude oil prices were to rise. This is also the zone yellow, and red. They are linked to the cost of crude where the state could assist in paying down the oil. In the past few months, crude oil prices have capital debt component to reduce the resultant cost ranged between $150/bbl to $30/bbl. With the price of energy to the community. If $50/bbl is the target volatility of crude oil, the meter face was developed point for state assistance, then, rather than paying to show the locally available energy sources with the entire capital cost of the alternative project, the respect to a variable pricing of crude oil. Rather state assistance should be limited to paying capital than predict the future price of oil, the green, yellow, costs down to the Green Zone or the $50/bbl target and red zones have been created. The Green Zone point. Using the target point concept will help defines relative costs for crude oil pricing of $50/bbl produce alternative energy at a level that can be or less. The Yellow Zone defines cost above $50/ sustained. For example, large hydroelectric projects bbl, but below $150/bbl. The Red Zone represents are capital intensive but have low O&M cost on crude oil costs above $150/bbl. the order of $0.01/kWh. Rather than assuming full capital relief and yielding the low O&M cost only, a The cost of electricity and space heating from diesel balance of loans and grants could be applied to bring fuel shown on the meters are computed using the the resulting energy costs down to the pricing point price of crude oil, delivered to the community and equivalent. The all or nothing approach to capital used in the existing infrastructure. The electrical funding may result in the wrong pricing signal for costs include non-fuel costs so the electrical cost energy, and over-expend funds in one area while shown will relate to the cost per kilowatt-hour shown other areas will be paying much higher prices. Both on the billing statement, prior to the applicable PCE short and long-term projects can exist in the Yellow reduction. 11
  • 12. How this Document Should be Used Zone. As the values of resources have a wide evaluation of the balancing of the risks and rewards. range, several of the lower-cost options should be The community energy model can be used to analyze reviewed for further investigation. As a general and compare different methods and levels of financing rule, short term projects should be selected first, and grants. with the addition of larger or longer term projects Learning from history, we need to recognize past that will further reduce the cost of energy to the performance, to avoid the historical results of community. alternative energy plans described in the ‘History of The Red Zone includes projects that are not cost Energy Policy in Alaska’ section of this document. effective at this time and will not be so unless Specific factors which impeded success of alternative technology develops to reduce the resulting energy energy initiatives as stated in the House Research cost, or until crude oil is above the $150/bbl price. Report 85-C published in 1985 include: The numeric results sheet can be used for a more in- • State agencies did not develop strong depth analysis of the data. The first part identifies management capabilities the current energy needs and costs for electricity, • State agencies lacked methods for assessing space heating, and transportation. the technical and financial feasibility of Sample Community The current use can be compared to the existing projects capacity and energy usages to determine the • Coordination among state agencies was often general resource size required for the community. lacking If a selected resource is much larger than the • Features of an alternative technology were community needs, an economic development poorly matched with a useful rural application opportunity exists. For the community to achieve • Unrealistic expectations existed about what an the lowest price, the resource will need to be used agency or technology could accomplish to its maximum. In this case, additional loads • Too much responsibility was delegated to must be developed to match the capacity of the contractors while the state often assumed the energy resource. For example, if a geothermal risk in performance of the project source exists that is larger than the community needs, the community could develop a fish cannery Development of public/private partnerships is critical and use an absorption chiller to make ice in the for successful implementation, with recognition of summer or grow vegetables under grow-lights in a our respective strengths and weaknesses to ensure all geothermally heated greenhouse in the winter. parties are providing quality service to the effort. Financing of energy projects is expected to be Private sector development by electric utilities, native a mix of bonds, loans, private equity, grants or corporations, municipalities and other qualified entities financial guarantees. To ensure the financial will provide access to management, business and success of energy projects, good business practices operations expertise. Detailed business planning at would require the creation of a project scope, the local level will ensure the technical and financial cost estimate, project business plan, management feasibility of the projects. The business plans will be team, design team, financing plan, and permitting required in all applications for state assistance and be a strategy. Business plan development will also be core part of the evaluations by state agencies, similar to necessary for grant and loan approval, with an the Renewable Energy Fund - Request for Applications 12
  • 13. How this Document Should be Used evaluation and selection process. The local business from Alaskans on the initial results and to obtain plans will provide a tool to help identify and evaluate additional input. These discussions are an important the best application of an alternative resource. The step in creating a regional vision for energy risks and rewards must be balanced and shared by the development that has local support and buy-in. The private, public and construction sectors. AEA team will discuss specific local opportunities and explain the use of the report in a large group Engaging Alaskans setting. In addition to the public meetings, the AEA team T he AEA team will engage Alaskans through a series of public meetings across the state. Regional will meet with the local municipalities, utilities, native corporations, and other groups with an interest in resolving the Alaskan energy challenge. meetings will be conducted in early 2009. The public These discussions will be conducted in smaller meetings will be used as an opportunity to explain group settings and will help identify the people who to local residents the use and the results of the have passion, expertise, knowledge and a realistic report. This is also an opportunity to obtain feedback perspective for a specific resource and technology. 13
  • 14. How this Document Should be Used Akutan Energy Used 39% Heat 46% Tr a nsp or t a t i on El e c t r i c 15% Total: $964 Per capita Heat $372 Per capita POPULATION: 859 Transportation $147 Per capita Sample Community Electricity: $444 Per capita 14 Monday, January 12, 2009 Akutan Aleut Corporation Page 1 of 5
  • 15. How this Document Should be Used Regional Corporation Akutan Aleut Corporation House 37 Senate : S POPULATION 859 LATITUDE: 54d 08m N LONGITUDE: 165d 46m Aleutians East Borough LOCATION Akutan is located on Akutan Island in the eastern Aleutians, one of the Krenitzin Islands of the Fox Island group. It is 35 miles east of Unalaska, and 766 air miles southwest of Anchorage. ECONOMY Commercial fish processing dominates Akutan's cash-based economy, and many locals are seasonally employed. Trident Seafoods operates a large processing plant west of the City for cod, crab, pollock and fish meal. The population of Akutan can double during processing months. Seven residents hold commercial fishing permits, primarily for halibut and other groundfish. Subsistence foods include seal, salmon, herring, halibut, clams, wild cattle, and game birds. HISTORY Akutan began in 1878 as a fur storage and trading port for the Western Fur & Trading Company. The company's agent established a commercial cod fishing and processing business that quickly attracted nearby Unangan to the community. A Russian Orthodox church and a school were built in 1878. Alexander Nevsky Chapel was built in 1918 to replace the original structure. The Pacific Whaling Company built a whale processing station across the bay from Akutan in 1912. It was the only whaling station in the Aleutians, and operated until 1939. After the Japanese attacked Unalaska in June 1942, the U.S. government evacuated Akutan residents to the Ketchikan area. The village was re-established in 1944, although many villagers chose not to return. This exposure to the outside world brought many changes to the traditional lifestyle and attitudes of the community. The City was incorporated in 1979. Sample Community Current Energy Status PCE Estimated Local Fuel cost @ $110/bbl $4.71 Electric (Estimates based on PCE) /kw-hr Current efficiency 11.81 kW-hr/gal Fuel COE $0.45 /kw-hr Estimated Diesel OM $10,206 Consumption in 2007 48,913 gal Est OM $0.02 /kw-hr Other Non-Fuel Costs: $98,502 Average Load 58 kW NF COE: $0.19 /kw-hr Current Fuel Costs $230,488 Estimated peak load 116.51 kW Total $0.66 Total Electric Average Sales 510,306 kW-hours $339,196 Space Heating (Estimated) 2000 Census Data 2008 Estimated Heating Fuel used: 56,012 gal Fuel Oil: 100% Estimated heating fuel cost/gallon $5.71 Wood: 0% $/MMBtu delivered to user $51.81 Total Heating Oil Electricity: Community heat needs in MMBtu 6,721 0.0% $319,950 Transportation (Estimated) Total Transportation Estimated Diesel: 22,154 gal Estimated cost $5.71 $126,547 Energy Total $785,693 15 Monday, January 12, 2009 Akutan Aleut Corporation Page 2 of 5
  • 16. How this Document Should be Used Possible Upgrades to Current Power Plant Power Plant - Performance Improvement to higher efficiency Upgrade needed: Capital cost $7,500 Semiannual Circuit Rider Annual Capital cost $628 $0.00 /kw-hr Status Completed Estimated Diesel OM $10,206 $0.02 New fuel cost $194,457 $0.38 Savings Acheivable efficiency 14 kW-h Avg Non-Fuel Costs: $108,708 $0.19 New Fuel use 41,267 $35,402 New cost of electricity $0.55 per kW-hr Diesel Engine Heat Recovery Heat Recovery System Installed? Capital cost $163,112 Is it working now? Annual ID $13,663 BLDGs connected and working: Annual OM $3,262 Value Total Annual costs $16,926 Savings Sample Community Water Jacket 7,337 gal $41,910 Stack Heat 0 gal $0 Heat cost $20.88 $/MMBtu $24,985 Alternative Energy Resources Geothermal Capital cost $38,500,000 per kW-hr Heat Cost $/MMBtu : Installed KW 5000 Annual Capital $2,587,805 $0.06 $18.22 kW-hr/year 41610000 Annual OM $1,155,000 $0.03 $8.13 Fuel cost: $0 $0.00 Site Name Akutan - Shallow Total Annual Cost $3,742,805 $0.09 $26.36 Project Capatcity 200 MW Non-Fuel Costs $0.21 Shallow Resource 0 Feet Alternative COE: $0.30 Shallow Temp 99.00 C % Community energy 8154% Savings New Community COE $7.55 ($3,403,609) (includes non-fuel and diesel costs) Geothermal Capital cost $37,500,000 per kW-hr Heat Cost $/MMBtu : Installed KW 6000 Annual Capital $2,520,589 $0.05 $14.79 kW-hr/year 49932000 Annual OM $1,125,000 $0.02 $6.60 Fuel cost: $0 $0.00 Site Name Akutan - Deep Total Annual Cost $3,645,589 $0.07 $21.39 Project Capatcity 200 MW Non-Fuel Costs $0.21 Shallow Resource 0 Feet Alternative COE: $0.29 Shallow Temp 99.00 C % Community energy 9785% Savings New Community COE $7.36 ($3,306,393) (includes non-fuel and diesel costs) 16 Monday, January 12, 2009 Akutan Aleut Corporation Page 3 of 5
  • 17. How this Document Should be Used Hydro Capital cost $2,507,920 per kW-hr Heat Cost $/MMBtu : Installed KW 197 Annual Capital $97,472 $0.17 $50.44 kW-hr/year 566166 Annual OM $55,200 $0.10 $28.57 Fuel cost: $0 $0.00 Site North Creek Total Annual Cost $152,672 $0.27 $79.01 Study plan effort feasibilty Non-Fuel Costs $0.21 Plant Factor 69 % Alternative COE: $0.48 Penetration 0.52 % Community energy 111% Savings New Community COE $0.51 $186,524 (includes non-fuel and diesel costs) Hydro Capital cost $2,509,760 per kW-hr Heat Cost $/MMBtu : Sample Community Installed KW 209 Annual Capital $97,543 $0.14 $40.76 kW-hr/year 701186 Annual OM $55,200 $0.08 $23.07 Fuel cost: $0 $0.00 Site Loud Creek Total Annual Cost $152,743 $0.22 $63.83 Study plan effort feasibility Non-Fuel Costs $0.21 Plant Factor 77 % Alternative COE: $0.43 Penetration 0.54 % Community energy 137% Savings New Community COE $0.51 $186,453 (includes non-fuel and diesel costs) Wind Diesel Hybrid Capital cost $4,253,640 per kW-hr Heat Cost $/MMBtu : Installed KW 600 Annual Capital $285,911 $0.23 $68.73 kW-hr/year 1218860 Annual OM $57,184 $0.05 $13.75 Fuel cost: $0 $0.00 Met Tower? no Total Annual Cost $343,096 $0.28 $82.48 Homer Data? yes Non-Fuel Costs $0.21 Wind Class 7 Alternative COE: $0.49 Avg wind speed 8.50 m/s % Community energy 239% Savings New Community COE $0.89 ($3,900) (includes non-fuel and diesel costs) 17
  • 18. Railbelt Region o pportunities and challenges in the Railbelt Region differ from those in other parts of Alaska. The complete Request for Proposals on the Regional Integrated Resource Plan for the Railbelt Region of The Railbelt electrical grid is defined as the service Alaska can be found on the Alaska Energy Authority areas of six regulated public utilities that extend website, www.akenergyauthority.org. from Fairbanks to Anchorage and the Kenai The current generation mix includes a number of Peninsula. These utilities are Golden Valley Electric existing hydroelectric power plants that are operating Association (GVEA); Chugach Electric Association in the southern portion of the Railbelt. Two coal- (CEA); Matanuska Electric Association (MEA); fired power stations (one operational) are positioned Homer Electric Association (HEA); Anchorage within GVEA’s service area at Healy River, near Municipal Light & Power (ML&P); the City of extensive sub-bituminous coal resources available Seward Electric System (SES); and Aurora Energy, from the Usibelli coal mine. LLC as an independent power producing utility. Sixty five percent of Alaskan population lies within The Cook Inlet gas basin still yields large quantities the Railbelt region. of natural gas for power generation and space heating, but known reserves are now falling and The southern portion of the Railbelt: Mat-Su Valley, dropping field operating pressures are causing Anchorage, and the Kenai Peninsula are highly concern that the region may not be able to depend dependent on natural gas as a source of electricity on lower Cook Inlet for adequate gas supplies in and heat. The northern portion of the Railbelt the future. There are several proposals to construct including Fairbanks and other communities in the pipelines that could bring Alaskan North Slope Interior relies on petroleum fuels in addition to natural gas into the Railbelt. Consideration of these natural gas, coal and hydroelectric electrical imports potential fuel sources will be a part of the integrated from the south. Petroleum fuels provide the majority resource plan for the Railbelt. of energy used for transportation across the entire state. A number of future generation projects have also been proposed, among them wind power projects, Nearly all of the thermal generating capacity in the large-scale and small-scale hydroelectric power Railbelt is more than 20 years old, and much of projects, Fischer-Tropsch plants, coal-fired power it is more than 30 years old. The majority of the stations, and turbines fired by fuel oil or natural gas generation is predominately combustion turbine turbines. generation. There are five utilities to the south of the Future fuel supplies for the Railbelt are diverse. Alaska Range. GVEA is the sole utility to the north. Near-term fuel supplies include natural gas from the Lower Cook Inlet Basin, petroleum fuel supplies A Regional Integrated Resource Plan (RIRP) is from Fairbanks and Kenai Peninsula refineries, and being developed to identify and evaluate the best coal resources near Healy and Chuitna. Significant resource mix to insure that least-cost options for quantities of North Slope natural gas are also electricity and heat are developed in the Railbelt available, although there is no pipeline currently region. The RIRP will be completed in late 2009 available to bring this gas to the Alaska Railbelt. and will consider multiple energy options and Trucking of LNG from the North Slope is being make a recommendation on specific projects to be investigated as an interim opportunity to use North developed. Slope natural gas to reduce the cost of energy to the 18
  • 19. Railbelt Region Fairbanks area. If the large-scale Alaska Natural Gas Regional Integrated Resource Plan Pipeline is constructed, then significant quantities of (RIRP) for the Railbelt natural gas will become available in Fairbanks. A compendium of known reports, RCA orders, and The goal of the Regional Integrated Resource Plan other data are available on the AEA website at www. for the Railbelt (RIRP) is to minimize future power akenergyauthority.org/USOhomepage.html, via supply costs and maintain or improve current levels the ‘Resource Documents’ link under the section, of power supply reliability through the development **Existing Railbelt Electric Grid data. of a single, comprehensive resource integration plan. The plan will identify and schedule a combination of The Susitna Hydro Evaluation generation and transmission (G&T) capital projects over a 50-year time horizon. Project The large-scale Susitna Hydro Project was proposed in the 1980s to provide hydroelectric power for the Railbelt. It was evaluated extensively by the state, but tabled in 1985 when oil prices dropped precipitously. AEA is currently engaged in the re- evaluation of the feasibility of this project. Historical information about the Susitna Hydro Project is available at http://www.akenergyauthority.org/ SusitnaReports.html. AEA intends to complete these studies on or before June 1, 2009. The RIRP for the Railbelt will require consideration of information from the Susitna Hydro Evaluation Project. The Railbelt Electrical Grid Authority Project AEA recently completed the Railbelt Electrical Grid Authority (REGA) Project, which recommends business structures that will own, operate, maintain, and control generation and transmission assets throughout the Railbelt.1 The project considered Healy Clean Coal Project several different energy futures for the Alaska Railbelt, and a regional plan for generation and transmission was part of this study. The final report and other resource documents are available online at http://www.akenergyauthority.org/REGAHomePage. html. 19
  • 20. Railbelt Region The plan is intended to provide: • An assessment of loads and demands for the The RIRP will include consideration of the following Railbelt Electrical Grid for a time horizon of energy sources: 50 years, including new potential industrial demands; • Healy Clean Coal Project • Projections for Railbelt electrical capacity • Susitna Hydroelectric Project (including and energy growth, fuel prices, and resource phased development) options; • Chakachamna Hydroelectric Project • An analysis of the range of potential generation • Fire Island Wind Power Project resources available, including costs, time for • Eva Creek Wind Project construction, and long-term operating costs; • Fairbanks Fischer-Tropsch Project (energy • A schedule for existing generation project source and fuel source) retirement, new generation construction, • Chuitna Coal Project (energy source and fuel and construction of backbone-redundant source) transmission lines that will allow the future • Nenana Basin natural gas Railbelt Electrical Grid to operate reliably • New gas reserves and exploration in Cook under open access tariffs, with a postage stamp Inlet rate for electricity and demand for the entire • North Slope natural gas Bullet Line Railbelt as a whole; • LNG trucked from the North Slope to • A long-term schedule for developing new fuel Fairbanks supplies that will provide for reliable, stably- priced electrical energy for a 50-year planning In order to integrate Susitna development with horizon; Railbelt Electrical Grid capacity and energy needs • A diverse portfolio of power supply that the RIRP will consider a number of options for includes in appropriate portions renewable bringing generation sources online, including the and alternative energy projects and fossil fuel phased development of the Susitna Hydro Electric projects, some of which could be provided by Project. The RIRP will also consider input from the independent power producers; Wind Integration Study currently being conducted • A comprehensive list of current and future by AEA, and it will include an analysis of the role generation, transmission, and electric power of demand side management rules and the ability to infrastructure projects, each one including a reduce generation resource and energy requirements project description, narrative, location, fuel if such programs are implemented. source, estimated annual fuel consumption, power output capacity, and energy output, both The RIRP will also consider potential contributions annually and monthly. of a merchant power market, where energy needs could be partially met by tenders from the Railbelt For reasonable generation fuel supply configurations, G&T entity for a portion of the power supply needs. the RIRP will develop and recommend up to three The RIRP process will analyze a range from 0% to feasible resource plan scenarios, complete with 25% of power needs being supplied by merchant assessment of costs and benefits, and collective and power suppliers (Independent Power Producers). individual impacts on utility tariffs. 20
  • 21. The RIRP will also consider a scenario where in 10 years all Railbelt G&T assets will be owned, controlled, maintained, and operated by a single business entity. Transmission planning for the RIRP will begin with the most recent Chugach and GVEA transmission plans integrated into an overall interconnected grid development. It will be assumed that transmission projects will be accomplished cooperatively with the serving distribution utility whose service area the transmission line must traverse. The RIRP will consider future industrial loads compared to a baseline load growth (demand and energy requirements) scenario, that assumes Railbelt development without new, heavy industrial high power demand. An evaluation of potential future industrial projects for the Railbelt and of incremental costs identified for increasing G&T capabilities to supply industrial loads will be completed. This will include the Donlin Creek mining projects and the Pebble Mining project as possible grid interconnected loads, as well as a third, undefined but similarly sized industrial project. 21
  • 22. Energy in Alaska Introduction It is difficult to conceive many human activities that 43% of total energy end-use in Alaska, however a do not in some way depend on affordable, reliable large portion is used for international flights and is energy. Whether it is providing fuel for our vehicles, not actually consumed in-state. An additional 484 electricity and heat for our homes, or energy for the Mmbtu can be attributed to energy used for oil and production and transportation of the products we use gas production in 2006, and while this was energy daily, almost everything we do depends on a constant consumed in-state, a vast majority of the product supply of energy. Inexpensive energy has helped was shipped out of state as crude oil exports. our society create wealth and, as an energy exporting state, is a cornerstone of our economy. Alaska is also home to tremendous untapped or underutilized energy resources, including some of The United States uses more energy per capita than the highest concentrations of fossil and renewable any other country in the world, and Alaska as a state energy resources on earth. In addition to the well- has the highest per capita energy use in the nation known oil and natural gas resources on the North at 1112 Mmbtu per person. This is more than three Slope and in Cook Inlet, Alaska’s proven coal re- times higher than the national average of 333 Mmb- serves represent the 4th largest fossil energy resource tus, and is in part due to our climate, with long cold in the world. Alaska also has significant undevel- winters throughout most of the state requiring more oped geothermal resources in the Aleutian Island energy for heating homes. However, our geographic volcanic arc, abundant untapped hydropower, wind, location and oil and gas industry also contribute and biomass resources, and the majority of the tidal significantly. For example, almost 32 million bar- and wave power potential in the United States. rels of jet fuel were used in 2006. Jet fuel constitutes How Much Energy Does the Average Alaskan Use? A long distance sled dog puts out 5 kW, or 17 Mmbtus, based on a 10,000 kcal/ day diet during a typical day on the Yukon Quest or Iditarod. This means that in order to generate the amount of energy needed by each Alaskan every day, we need the equivalent effort of 65 Iditarod sled dogs. 22
  • 23. Total Annual Energy Consumption per Capita Energy in Alaska Data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), based on 2006 values. 23
  • 24. 24 Energy in Alaska Energy diagram produced by the Alaska Center for Energy and Power based on data from ISER, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration
  • 25. Energy in Alaska Energy Flow in Alaska In order to reduce the cost of energy for Alaskans, it tricity, where on average 66% of the energy used by is important to understand how energy is produced our power plants is dissipated as waste heat. and how it is used. The energy flow diagram on the opposite page describes the inputs for Alaska energy It is also interesting to note that since 2001 (the last consumption, as well as the amount used by the time ISER completed an energy flow diagram for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transporta- state), residential energy use increased by 18% while tion sectors. While the values used in this diagram the state population increased by only 7%. This are based on 2006 data, the only recent significant shows that we are not doing a good job impelement- change in major energy use patterns is the closing of ing energy efficiency measures at the level of the the Agrium Fertilizer plant on the Kenai Peninsula, individual home owner, which should be the lowest which has eliminated urea exports out of the state. cost and consequently the first area addressed when seeking opportunities for reducing the cost of energy. Energy flow diagrams are useful for visualizing where energy comes from and where it goes. They Unfortunately, the picture of energy flow for the also demonstrate the inefficiencies associated with entire state of Alaska does little to show what is hap- various energy conversion technologies as energy is pening in any particular region, let alone in a single ‘lost’ between the developed resources (left side of community. For example, a large fraction of the diagram = 2173 trillion btus), energy exports (top of hydropower is produced in southeast Alaska, while the diagram = 1435 trillion btus), energy consumed natural gas is a large component of energy supply in (right hand side = 363 trillion btus), and energy the Anchorage area and Kenai Peninsula, as well as a imported (bottom of the diagram = 70 trillion btus). few communities on the North Slope. Coal is solely This is particularly evident in the production of elec- used in Interior Alaska for both power generation and heating. What is 1 trillion btus? The units used for the energy flow diagram are in trillion btus (British Thermal Units), where 1 btu is the energy required to raise 1 pound of water 1 degree Fahrenheit. Another way to understand what a trillion btus represents is that each Alaskan uses nearly 1 million BTUs per day; so 1 trillion BTUs is about enough energy for a day and a half of energy use for all of Alaska. Alaska’s total energy consumption in 2006 = 419 trillion btus divided into the following sectos: • Residential 45 Trillion BTUs • Commercial 45 Trillion BTUs • Industrial 26 Trillion BTUs • Transportation 263 Trillion BTUs 25
  • 27. Energy in Alaska Historical Trends in Energy Consumption Using data on the consumption of energy from the the late 1960s, and by the early 1980s natural gas U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), we was the predominant source of energy used in Alas- can track the amount of energy used in Alaska since ka. When oil and gas production began on the North statehood. These estimates of consumption from the Slope in the late 1970s, natural gas consumption by EIA also include energy used during oil and gas ex- industrial users increased dramatically because it traction processes, and jet fuel from international air was used to power North Slope operations. All other travel. The graph below shows the gross consump- fuels, including diesel, motor gasoline, jet fuel, and tion of energy in Alaska from 1960 through 2006. coal, have contributed relatively stable shares of total Oil and gas production began in Cook Inlet during energy consumption per capita in the state. Chart created by ISER based on data from the United Stated Energy Information Administration 27
  • 28. Energy in Alaska Putting the Cost of Energy in Context While energy and its cost to our communities are the is clear, what is less definitive is whether these rising main focuses of this document, the context of energy costs directly correlate to out-migration from rural to within the social framework of Alaskan communi- urban areas, and out of the state completely. ties must also be considered. Energy is ultimately a tool used to achieve a certain quality of life. Energy ISER recently completed a study that indicates heats homes, runs appliances, provides light, fuels migration from rural to urban areas of the state is a our vehicles, and powers communication equipment, long-term trend caused by a number of factors and among other applications. With this fact in mind it that it has been occurring for generations in some is clear that state energy planning must look at more parts of the state. There has also been a small net than simply reducing the cost of energy in communi- migration out of the state since 2002. Many factors ties throughout the state. The planning effort must contribute to this trend, including the overall high also look at the much more complex goal of improv- cost of living in Alaska. In general, people migrate ing and sustaining the quality of life across the state to improve their lives by increasing their access to to retain a stable population base, and diversify the opportunities such as better paying jobs, education economy. for themselves and their children, and a lower cost of living. It is possible that the current spike in energy The statement has often been made that many Alas- costs may serve as a tipping point, or final straw kan rural communities are dying, and this is fre- stressing rural residents to the point where the deci- quently attributed to the high cost of energy in those sion to leave is finally made. This decision is also locations. It is easy to document the fact that resi- frequently influenced by other considerations: the dents in most rural communities spend a dispropor- lack of adequate housing, lack of well paying jobs, tionate percentage of their gross income on energy and deterioration of social networks due to prior out- when compared to the more urban areas of the state. migrations and other social issues. According to ISER, in 2006 rural residents spent approximately 9.9% of their total income for energy- In fact, an attitudinal survey of 600 Alaska Natives related expenses, an increase from 6.6% in 2000, and 302 non-Natives who had moved from rural to and there has almost certainly been a further increase urban areas of Alaska was conducted by the First since 2006. Alaskans Insitute in 2007. It indicated that for 65% of survey participants, nothing would motivate them While this trend is most apparent in rural Alaska, to return to rural Alaska. This is presumably due to the rising cost of energy is affecting Alaskans in all a lack of real or perceived opportunities for them- regions of the state. Southeast Alaska and Kodiak, selves and their families, which combined with the which largely benefit from stable electric costs from high cost of living, reduced the overall attractiveness hydropower, are still being effected by the high cost of their community of origin. of space heating. The Fairbanks area has seen a dra- matic increase in both space heating and electricity In the technology screening database developed as costs. Even in the Anchorage area average residen- part of this document, the cost-to-benefit analyses of tial natural gas prices increased 27% in one year, energy projects in each community are based solely from 2006 to 2007. While the rising cost of energy on the potential for displacing diesel fuel. There is 28
  • 29. Energy in Alaska no consideration included for the impact of any single project on the overall economic health of a commu- nity, such as the potential for new jobs, businesses, or industries. However, even though the database does not quantify those impacts, they exist. Examples in- clude jobs created by harvesting and processing wood for a biomass energy project, the development of a greenhouse business based on low-cost heat from a geothermal development project and the stabilization of energy prices through the use of local renewable resources. An energy project could also have a positive im- pact on the social health of a community. Examples include a more stable employment base, educational opportunities for local students and the perception that energy prices are becoming more stable. It is usu- ally the communities that already have strong leader- ship and cohesive social structures that will be most successful in implementing new projects, and those communities tend to be larger. For more information: Fuel Costs, Migration, and Community Viability Colt, S. and Martin, S., University of Alaska Anchorage, In- stitute of Social and Economic Research, May 2008. Engaging community knowledge to measure progress: Rural development performance measures progress report Alaska Native Policy Center (September, 2007), Prepared for the Denali Commission, available at http:// www.firstalaskans.org/documents_fai/A.%20RDPM%20 Report.pdf 29
  • 30. Energy in Alaska Current Energy Costs and Future Projections Crude Oil and Fuel Products Crude Oil Price Forecast Crude oil is a global commodity, and crude oil prices The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Informa- are determined by global supply and demand. Apart tion Administration produces long-term price fore- from an allowance for tanker transportation costs casts in its Annual Energy Outlook. The most recent and quality differentials, it makes sense to speak of publication was June 2008. In the AEO2008 refer- the world price of oil. Alaskans can do nothing to ence case, the world oil price path reaches a low of impact this price. $57 per barrel in 2016 and then increases to about $70 in 2030 (2006 dollars). There is no price for Alaska crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) or other com- In the high-price case, with the price of imported modity exchanges. The spot price of Alaska North crude oil rising to $119 per barrel (2006 dollars) in Slope (ANS) crude oil is calculated by subtracting 2030, the average price of U.S. motor gasoline in- a market differential from the price of West Texas creases rapidly to $3.06 per gallon in 2016 and $3.52 Intermediate (WTI) quoted on the NYMEX. Four per gallon in 2030. In the low-price case, gasoline different assessment services estimate that market prices decline to a low of $1.74 per gallon in 2016, differential and report a daily spot price for ANS. increase slowly through the early 2020s, and level off at about $1.84 per gallon through 2030 (see Fig- Fuel oil (also often called diesel) is one of several ure 1 on the following page). products distilled from crude oil and used for heat- ing fuel or engine fuel. Alaskans use a number of It is important to note that in the past, EIA forecasts petroleum products, including motor gasoline, diesel have not proven to be overly accurate. This is in part fuel #1, diesel fuel #2, aviation gasoline, and jet because a large number of factors, some unpredict- fuel. Motor gasolines are used in automobiles, small able, can affect crude oil prices on the world market. boats, and snowmachines; there are typically three grades of gasoline available (mostly in larger com- Current Crude Oil Price Trends munities in Alaska). Diesel fuel #1 is a kerosene The EIA also publishes the Short Term Energy product used for heating fuel. Diesel fuel #2 is a Outlook. The next one will be published in January, light gas-oil used for home and commercial heating 2009. According to the October 2008 report, strong and as a motor fuel. Aviation gasoline and jet fuel global demand and low surplus production capacity are used to fuel aircraft, but a type of jet fuel is also contributed to the run-up to record crude oil prices often used for home heating. According to Crowley in July. The current slowdown in economic growth Marine, one of Alaska’s largest fuel distributors, is contributing to the recent decline in oil demand most of the diesel fuel in more populated areas like and the sharp decline in prices since July. According Southcentral Alaska and Fairbanks is ultra low sulfur to the December 8 report, the current global eco- diesel. Most villages in Western Alaska still use low nomic slowdown is now projected to be more severe sulfur diesel because they are exempt from the ultra and longer than in last month’s Outlook, leading to low sulfur diesel requirement until 2011. further reductions of global energy demand and addi- tional declines in crude oil and other energy prices. 30
  • 31. Energy in Alaska $140.00 $120.00 $100.00 Dollars per Barrel (2006 dollars) $80.00 Figure 1. Energy Infor- $60.00 mation Administration Crude Oil Price Forecast $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 Reference High price Low price $160.00 $140.00 $120.00 Dollars per Barrel (nominal dollars) $100.00 Figure 2. Energy Infor- $80.00 mation Administration Short-Term Crude Oil $60.00 Price Forecast $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 31
  • 32. Energy in Alaska The monthly average price of West Texas Interme- diate (WTI) crude oil has fallen by more than half between July and November, reflecting the fallout from the rapid decline in world petroleum demand. The annual average WTI price is now projected to be $100 per barrel in 2008 and $51 in 2009. The OPEC oil cartel met on December 17, 2008 and agreed to reduce production by 2.2 million barrels per day, their largest decrease ever, to boost prices. Whether all producers adhere to the reductions and whether the reductions stem the price slide or raise prices are yet to be seen. Figure 2 on the previous page shows the EIA short-term price forecast. 32
  • 33. History of Energy Policy in Alaska A laska has a history of energy planning and poli- cy development dating from statehood in 1959. That in the 1960s. Demand for petroleum products has continued to expand with the introduction of electric history still holds some relevance today by demon- utilities and other infrastructure such as schools and strating both successful and less successful energy water treatment plants. program implementation. This section provides a brief synopsis of past efforts in energy planning and Today most rural communities generate electricity implementation of those plans, including some of the with centralized diesel systems. Petroleum fuels lessons learned. provide the bulk of all energy for electricity, space heating and transportation. Costs are high due to the Overview of Rural Energy expense of moving fuel to rural Alaska and the small scale of operations. The high costs have motivated Although electricity first appeared in some rural residents to use less and mean rural energy consump- Alaska villages as a result of military, cannery, min- tion is lower than in urban areas. ing, or logging operations, its introduction into many villages began only in the late 1950s as the BIA Rural Energy Policy 1979-1985 installed small generators for lighting its schools.1 This electricity was not available to households, and In 1979, under Governor Jay Hammond, the state few villages had central power supplies before the articulated its first energy policy that included the mid-1970s. The exceptions were larger rural com- following principles: munities such as Bethel, Nome, Dillingham, and Kotzebue. 1) Equitable distribution of Alaska’s energy wealth 2) Improved efficiency of production and delivery Electrification began to spread more rapidly in 3) State planned and funded facility construction the 1970s, but an estimated 85 rural communities, 4) Technical assistance in conservation and most with less than 200 residents, were still without management central power supply systems in 1975. Over the 5) Support for development of locally oriented next 10 years the state provided local communities a energy technologies large number of grants for electrification, and by the 6) Public participation and local input in energy mid-1980s most remote communities had centralized planning decisions diesel power facilities. Several conditions at the start of the 1980s heavily influenced development of this energy policy. This The demand for diesel and other petroleum products included the concept that developing cheap power, in rural Alaska originated with the introduction of primarily through investment in hydropower projects outboard motors in the 1940s and snowmobiles in such as Susitna and Bradley Lake as well as various the 1960s. This demand expanded when the BIA and projects in Southeast Alaska, would stimulate eco- Alaska State Housing Authority began constructing nomic development. It was also assumed that state conventional western housing in rural communities revenues from the newly producing oil field at 1. This historic account through the 1990s is partially extracted from Scott Goldsmith, Short (and Informal) Review of Alaska Rural Energy Policy, with Particular Reference to Alternative Technologies, prepared for the Denali Commission, May 24, 1999. 33
  • 34. History of Energy Policy in Alaska Prudhoe Bay could provide the money needed to (peat, biomass, solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, hydro- bankroll these huge investments. The high price of gen, fuel cells, heat pumps, and waste heat recovery) oil and the expectation that it would continue to rise that the division would be investigating in the hope also led to the assumption that there would be no that some would be appropriate for rural Alaska. shortage of money. (In 2008 dollars the 1981 price of crude oil was close to $60 per barrel) By the time the 1982 plan was written, the Division of Energy, together with the Alaska Power Authority, Of particular importance to rural communities were had spent $12.6 million on geothermal, wind, wood, the following considerations: peat, single-ground-wire transmission, waste heat, • A way to spread the wealth from oil to all weatherization, organic rankine generators, and tidal residents would be to make electricity available energy. The state departments of Transportation and and cheap for all Alaska communities, including Public Facilities and Environmental Conservation those in the bush. also conducted alternative energy studies. Hydro- electric studies fell into their own category. • The high price of crude oil meant that the price of diesel fuel, the source of most of the energy for The progress of those investigations can be traced rural Alaska, was oppressively expensive - through the early 1980s by reference to each suc- particularly in relation to costs in urban areas. ceeding State Long Term Energy Plan. These docu- Many urban places were somewhat insulated by ments reflect the evolution of policy over time, existing hydro facilities or by availability of partially through changes in administrative structure, natural gas, which was not tied to the price of oil. and tend to be forward looking. Consequently, they • The fear of oil embargoes gave rise to the idea include only a limited amount of information about of self sufficiency of energy supply, which meant the successes, failures, and lessons learned from the use of locally available sources of energy money spent on existing projects, including invest- rather than the use of imported diesel. ments in alternative energy. • The national initiative to develop alternative What Did The State Learn About Rural Energy? energy and implement conservation measures After gaining experience with renewable resource meant that a lot of money from the federal gov- exploration and development in the early 1980s, sev- ernment was available to consider alternative eral conclusions were reached. These included: means of providing electricity in rural Alaska. Resource Assessment: In 1980 the state began spending large amounts of • Geothermal resources are site specific and ex- money collecting data on energy resource avail- pensive to develop ability and energy use, conducting studies of hydro • Wood is an excellent substitute for fuel oil potential and investigating the potential for alter- • Alaska has vast resources of peat, but technical native energy sources, particularly for the state’s expertise and infrastructure for its economical smaller communities. For example, the 1981 State use are not in place Long Term Energy Plan (the first of six such plans) • Wind resources need more study described the activities of the newly formed Divi- • Seasonal fluctuations restrict the viability of sion of Energy within the Department of Commerce. solar power Prominent was a list of the alternative energy sources • Tidal power has limited applicability 34