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The document summarizes the objectives and methodology of the Fraser Institute's 2010 Global Petroleum Survey. The survey gathered responses from 645 companies on 17 factors related to upstream oil and gas investment barriers across 133 jurisdictions. The responses were used to create composite indices to facilitate comparison of jurisdictions' commercial/regulatory environments and geopolitical risks. Alaska received scores indicating its factors are generally not strong deterrents to investment, though some receive mild deterrent ratings.

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Global Petroleum Survey 2010 ALLIANCE MEET ALASKA January, 2011 Fred McMahon Vice President Research, International The Fraser Institute

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Project Objectives Are To: • Rank jurisdictions according to barriers to upstream investment. • Identify issues that jurisdictions need to address in order to attract more greater shares of investment. • Identify year-to-year changes to jurisdictions’ apparent relative attractiveness for upstream investment. (Valuable information for both business planners and policy makers)

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The Survey Questions

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Factors Addressed by Questions (1) 1. Fiscal Terms 2. Taxation Regime 3. Environmental Uncertainty 4. Regulatory Uncertainty 5. Cost of Regulatory Compliance 6. Protected Areas 7. Socio-economic Agreements 8. Trade Barriers

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Factors Addressed by Questions (2) 9. Labour Regulations and Employment Agreements 10. Quality of infrastructure 11. Geological Database 12. Labor Availability 13. Disputed Land Claims 14. Political Stability 15. Security 16. Regulatory Duplication and Inconsistencies 17. Legal system

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Possible Responses to Each Question: 1. Encourages investment 2. Is not a deterrent to investment 3. Is a mild deterrent to investment 4. Is a strong deterrent to investment 5. Would not invest due to this criterion

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• Scoring Methodology

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Composite Indices (Used to Facilitate Comparison) • All-Inclusive Composite Index - Based on average of responses to all 17 questions • Commercial Environment Index - Fiscal terms, taxation, trade barriers, quality of infrastructure, & labor availability • Regulatory Climate Index - Based on average of responses to the 6 regulatory questions • Geopolitical Risk Index - From “Political Stability” and “Security” questions

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2010 Participation • 645 questionnaires received; up from 577 in 2009 • Over 364 companies represented. • Participating upstream petroleum companies responsible for more than half of global 2009 E&P expenditures according to International Energy Agency estimates. • 133 jurisdictions ranked (vs. 143 in 2009, 81 in 2008, 54 in 2007).

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Position Held by Respondent Company President, Other, 7.4% 18.8% Consultant, 32.2% Vice President, 12.1% Manager, 29.5%

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The Global Picture

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The Global Results Map

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Focus on Alaska

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U S -S ou th D 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 U ako S ta - U Te S x U - I as S lli U - W no S - M yo is is mi si ng U ss S U U ipp O S S- i ff Mild deterrent to investment sh -O U or k ta e— US lah h G - A om ul f o la b a f M am ex a U ic o U S S -A -O U h S rka io -L n o sa U U uis s S S i - N - K an a o r an t s U h D as S ak - U M ot U S - on a S t Strong deterrent to investment - W Mic ana U e h U S st V iga S - n O Ne irg ff w in sh i or Me a Offshore AL e— x i U c U S Ala o S -C s - P o ka en lor All-Inclusive Composite Index: US n a U sy d o S U - K lva S O en n ia ff U tu c Alaska sh S o r - A ky e — la U s S Atl ka - C an a tic U lifo U S rn S US - F ia O lo ff - N rid sh e or w Y a e— o Pa rk ci fic Would not pursue investment due to this factor

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All inclusive: Canadian Comparaison 100 90 Alaska 80 AL Offshore 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CA CA CA CA AL CA CA CA CA CA AL CA O US -M -O -Y -B -Q -S -N -N -A -N ffs uk rit as -2 nt ue ew ov lb or an ho 01 er ar is th on ka be a it o fo h re ta io 0 w Sc tc un c ba Co - es 20 he ot dl tT lu 10 ia w an m an er d bi r it a or ie s Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not pursue investment due to this factor

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All-Inclusive Composite Index: 2010 and 2009 50 40 30 20 10 0 AL 2010 AL 2009 Offshore-2010 Offshore-2009 Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not pursue investment due to this factor

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• Alaska Focus on Alaska • US—Alaska (Offshore • Norway—North Sea AL) (Norway-NS) • South Australia • Norway • Western Australia • United Kingdom—North • Australia Offshore Sea (UK-NS) • Indonesia • Russia • Alberta • DRC • BC • Newfoundland • Iraq • Yukon • UAE • NWT • Venezuela • Texas • Brazil • US— Atlantic • US—Pacific • US—Gulf of Mexico

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Would not invest a el zu ne Ve i a s us R q ia fic Ir a nes ci do Pa In e— or RC h D ff s O S All-Inclusive Composite Index U l Strong deterrent to investment zi Alaska ra B ic T an t W l N At — S U ka s la A rta AL e lb r e— A ho f fs O C d B ay l an w d or n N fou S ew -N Offshore AL N ay w or N re AE n ho U ff s ko O a- ia Mild deterrent to investment Yu rali al t tr us us A NS n A alia ico - er t r ex K t U es Aus f M W o U- th lf A ou Gu S — U- e A hor f fs O s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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Commercial Environment Index 100 90 Alaska 80 Offshore AL 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Te US AU Au AU BC Of Yu UK Ne A No UA No NW Al O Br O DR In Ira Ru Ve f f d xa s — -So str -W fs k ho on - N wfo lbe r rw E rw T as k fsh azi l fsh C on q ss n e G al e S un ta ay ay a or or es ia zu ul uth ia- ste re — dl -N e— e— ia el fo A O a f M us ffs rn A AL an S At Pa d la ci ex tra ho us nt fi c ic lia re tra ic o l ia Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not invest

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a el zu ne V e ia fic ss ci Ru Pa q re — Would not invest Ira ho Regulatory Climate Index f f s ia O es n do In Offshore AL C DR i l AL az e— Br r ho t ic ffs an O ka Atl as e — A l hor Strong deterrent to investment ffs Alaska O T NW ay rw d N o rta lan be nd A l fo u S w -N N e ay rw No BC re E ho UA S ffs -N O a- U K r al i lia ic o t r a ex Mild deterrent to investment st A u n A us f M k o th l f o l ia Y u o u Gu t r a -S e — u s A U hor rn A ffs te O es -W AU s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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a el zu Would not invest ne Ve q Ira C R D a si Geopolitical Risk Index us ia R s ne do In l zi ra fic B ci ta er Pa lb e— A r ho ffs Strong deterrent to investm ent O T W N E A U d an C dl B un fo ew e o Offshore AL Alaska N or xic a sh e sk ff M la -O of A ia f al ul tr G us e— A r h o AL ffs — O re ho ffs O S -N K U s S xa -N Mild deterrent to investm ent Te ay ia or w al tr N ay us w A a or tern ali N tr es us -W A ic U th nt A ou tla -S A U — A re ho ffs O n ko Yu 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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Individual questions

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a el zu ne Ve a si ic us nt R la At Would not invest q — ifi c Ira ore ac h P ffs — O ore h ffs ia O es n do In E A a U t er Fiscal Terms lb d A ay an w dl or n Strong deterrent to investment N fou ew N C R D l zi NS ra - B ay w or Offshore AL N S -N K . U L T —A W N ore h ffs O a o sk ic A la ex n fM ko fo Yu ul G re C e— o B o r ffsh al ia Mild deterrent to investment h tr ffs -O s Alaska O al ia Au tr rn us te A es ia -W al U tr A s us A xa th Te ou -S U A 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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a Would not invest el zu ne Ve a si s Ru q Ira sia ne do c In ifi il ac a z —P Br re ho S ff s - N O ay rw No y Strong deterrent to investment a rw No ka Taxation Alaska as a tic Al Se tlan rth A So re— ho ff s O a rt be Al d an E dl o UA un ic fo ex w fM Ne fo ul C —G DR re ho A L Offshore AL ff s e— O r ho ff s re O ho T ff s -O NW Mild deterrent to investment lia ra lia st ra Au st Au rn lia BC te ra e s ust -W A AU uth o -S AU s xa Te k on Yu 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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fi c ci Pa — re L Would not invest ho — A f fs e O hor Environmental Regulations ff s O ia t ic Offshore AL ss ela l an R u zu At ne e— V e hor ff s O ay rw N o ka NS as - A l ay rw Strong deterrent to investment No Alaska BC il az Br q Ir a r t a be Al S re - N ia s h o o UK s f ne O f ic d o ia- ex In r a l M of st lf Au G u li a T e — tra s N W hor A u ff s th l ia O ou tr a -S us A U on rn A Mild deterrent to investment k te d Y u e s lan -W nd A U fou w Ne C DR E UA s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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a el zu ne Ve Would not invest a si fic us ci R Pa q — Ir a or e h f fs O ic RC nt Regulatory Uncertainty D ta tla e r —A lb A or e h ffs O l zi Offshore AL ra B nd Strong deterrent to investment T la W nd N ou AL f ew e— N or h f fs O a sk Alaska la A ay w or N S N AE - U ay o w ic or ex N fM C fo B S ul N G K- r e— U ho re ffs ho O n ff s lia Mild deterrent to investment ko -O t ra Yu alia us tr A us ut h ia A al So tr U- us A s A n xa t e r Te es W U- A 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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a el zu ne Ve a si fi c us ci Would not invest R Pa q — Ira ore h ffs Cost of Regulatory Compliance O T a W i N es n do In C B ay w NS Strong deterrent to investment or - N ay w or N a L Alaska s k —A la A ore nd h a ffs dl O oun f ew N ta er lb A l zi ic nt Offshore AL ra la B S At -N — K re U ho re ffs ho Mild deterrent to investment O ffs C O R a- D al i o tr ic us ex A n fM ko fo Yu ul G alia E A re — s tr l ia U ho Au stra ffs h O out Au -S te rn U A es -W U A s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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fi c ci Pa — re L c ho A nti ffs e — l a O or At h ffs e — O or wilderness or parks, marine life preserves, or archeological sites. h ffs Offshore AL O ka s la A ia Would not invest s us R ay w la or Uncertainty concerning what areas will be protected as N zu e ne Ve C B e T or sh Strong deterrent to investment W N ta ff er O lb ia- al ia A al tr tr Alaska us us A n A n k o te r Yu es S -W - N U A ay w ia or N nes do In l ia ic o zi al ra tr ex B us M A of Mild deterrent to investment q th l f Ira ou G u -S e — U d A or lan h ffs nd O ou f ew N S -N K U E A U s xa Te C R D 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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Fraser institute

  • 1. Global Petroleum Survey 2010 ALLIANCE MEET ALASKA January, 2011 Fred McMahon Vice President Research, International The Fraser Institute
  • 2. Project Objectives Are To: • Rank jurisdictions according to barriers to upstream investment. • Identify issues that jurisdictions need to address in order to attract more greater shares of investment. • Identify year-to-year changes to jurisdictions’ apparent relative attractiveness for upstream investment. (Valuable information for both business planners and policy makers)
  • 4. Factors Addressed by Questions (1) 1. Fiscal Terms 2. Taxation Regime 3. Environmental Uncertainty 4. Regulatory Uncertainty 5. Cost of Regulatory Compliance 6. Protected Areas 7. Socio-economic Agreements 8. Trade Barriers
  • 5. Factors Addressed by Questions (2) 9. Labour Regulations and Employment Agreements 10. Quality of infrastructure 11. Geological Database 12. Labor Availability 13. Disputed Land Claims 14. Political Stability 15. Security 16. Regulatory Duplication and Inconsistencies 17. Legal system
  • 6. Possible Responses to Each Question: 1. Encourages investment 2. Is not a deterrent to investment 3. Is a mild deterrent to investment 4. Is a strong deterrent to investment 5. Would not invest due to this criterion
  • 8. Composite Indices (Used to Facilitate Comparison) • All-Inclusive Composite Index - Based on average of responses to all 17 questions • Commercial Environment Index - Fiscal terms, taxation, trade barriers, quality of infrastructure, & labor availability • Regulatory Climate Index - Based on average of responses to the 6 regulatory questions • Geopolitical Risk Index - From “Political Stability” and “Security” questions
  • 9. 2010 Participation • 645 questionnaires received; up from 577 in 2009 • Over 364 companies represented. • Participating upstream petroleum companies responsible for more than half of global 2009 E&P expenditures according to International Energy Agency estimates. • 133 jurisdictions ranked (vs. 143 in 2009, 81 in 2008, 54 in 2007).
  • 10. Position Held by Respondent Company President, Other, 7.4% 18.8% Consultant, 32.2% Vice President, 12.1% Manager, 29.5%
  • 15. U S -S ou th D 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 U ako S ta - U Te S x U - I as S lli U - W no S - M yo is is mi si ng U ss S U U ipp O S S- i ff Mild deterrent to investment sh -O U or k ta e— US lah h G - A om ul f o la b a f M am ex a U ic o U S S -A -O U h S rka io -L n o sa U U uis s S S i - N - K an a o r an t s U h D as S ak - U M ot U S - on a S t Strong deterrent to investment - W Mic ana U e h U S st V iga S - n O Ne irg ff w in sh i or Me a Offshore AL e— x i U c U S Ala o S -C s - P o ka en lor All-Inclusive Composite Index: US n a U sy d o S U - K lva S O en n ia ff U tu c Alaska sh S o r - A ky e — la U s S Atl ka - C an a tic U lifo U S rn S US - F ia O lo ff - N rid sh e or w Y a e— o Pa rk ci fic Would not pursue investment due to this factor
  • 16. All inclusive: Canadian Comparaison 100 90 Alaska 80 AL Offshore 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CA CA CA CA AL CA CA CA CA CA AL CA O US -M -O -Y -B -Q -S -N -N -A -N ffs uk rit as -2 nt ue ew ov lb or an ho 01 er ar is th on ka be a it o fo h re ta io 0 w Sc tc un c ba Co - es 20 he ot dl tT lu 10 ia w an m an er d bi r it a or ie s Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not pursue investment due to this factor
  • 17. All-Inclusive Composite Index: 2010 and 2009 50 40 30 20 10 0 AL 2010 AL 2009 Offshore-2010 Offshore-2009 Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not pursue investment due to this factor
  • 18. • Alaska Focus on Alaska • US—Alaska (Offshore • Norway—North Sea AL) (Norway-NS) • South Australia • Norway • Western Australia • United Kingdom—North • Australia Offshore Sea (UK-NS) • Indonesia • Russia • Alberta • DRC • BC • Newfoundland • Iraq • Yukon • UAE • NWT • Venezuela • Texas • Brazil • US— Atlantic • US—Pacific • US—Gulf of Mexico
  • 19. Would not invest a el zu ne Ve i a s us R q ia fic Ir a nes ci do Pa In e— or RC h D ff s O S All-Inclusive Composite Index U l Strong deterrent to investment zi Alaska ra B ic T an t W l N At — S U ka s la A rta AL e lb r e— A ho f fs O C d B ay l an w d or n N fou S ew -N Offshore AL N ay w or N re AE n ho U ff s ko O a- ia Mild deterrent to investment Yu rali al t tr us us A NS n A alia ico - er t r ex K t U es Aus f M W o U- th lf A ou Gu S — U- e A hor f fs O s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 20. Commercial Environment Index 100 90 Alaska 80 Offshore AL 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Te US AU Au AU BC Of Yu UK Ne A No UA No NW Al O Br O DR In Ira Ru Ve f f d xa s — -So str -W fs k ho on - N wfo lbe r rw E rw T as k fsh azi l fsh C on q ss n e G al e S un ta ay ay a or or es ia zu ul uth ia- ste re — dl -N e— e— ia el fo A O a f M us ffs rn A AL an S At Pa d la ci ex tra ho us nt fi c ic lia re tra ic o l ia Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not invest
  • 21. a el zu ne V e ia fic ss ci Ru Pa q re — Would not invest Ira ho Regulatory Climate Index f f s ia O es n do In Offshore AL C DR i l AL az e— Br r ho t ic ffs an O ka Atl as e — A l hor Strong deterrent to investment ffs Alaska O T NW ay rw d N o rta lan be nd A l fo u S w -N N e ay rw No BC re E ho UA S ffs -N O a- U K r al i lia ic o t r a ex Mild deterrent to investment st A u n A us f M k o th l f o l ia Y u o u Gu t r a -S e — u s A U hor rn A ffs te O es -W AU s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 22. a el zu Would not invest ne Ve q Ira C R D a si Geopolitical Risk Index us ia R s ne do In l zi ra fic B ci ta er Pa lb e— A r ho ffs Strong deterrent to investm ent O T W N E A U d an C dl B un fo ew e o Offshore AL Alaska N or xic a sh e sk ff M la -O of A ia f al ul tr G us e— A r h o AL ffs — O re ho ffs O S -N K U s S xa -N Mild deterrent to investm ent Te ay ia or w al tr N ay us w A a or tern ali N tr es us -W A ic U th nt A ou tla -S A U — A re ho ffs O n ko Yu 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 24. a el zu ne Ve a si ic us nt R la At Would not invest q — ifi c Ira ore ac h P ffs — O ore h ffs ia O es n do In E A a U t er Fiscal Terms lb d A ay an w dl or n Strong deterrent to investment N fou ew N C R D l zi NS ra - B ay w or Offshore AL N S -N K . U L T —A W N ore h ffs O a o sk ic A la ex n fM ko fo Yu ul G re C e— o B o r ffsh al ia Mild deterrent to investment h tr ffs -O s Alaska O al ia Au tr rn us te A es ia -W al U tr A s us A xa th Te ou -S U A 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 25. a Would not invest el zu ne Ve a si s Ru q Ira sia ne do c In ifi il ac a z —P Br re ho S ff s - N O ay rw No y Strong deterrent to investment a rw No ka Taxation Alaska as a tic Al Se tlan rth A So re— ho ff s O a rt be Al d an E dl o UA un ic fo ex w fM Ne fo ul C —G DR re ho A L Offshore AL ff s e— O r ho ff s re O ho T ff s -O NW Mild deterrent to investment lia ra lia st ra Au st Au rn lia BC te ra e s ust -W A AU uth o -S AU s xa Te k on Yu 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 26. fi c ci Pa — re L Would not invest ho — A f fs e O hor Environmental Regulations ff s O ia t ic Offshore AL ss ela l an R u zu At ne e— V e hor ff s O ay rw N o ka NS as - A l ay rw Strong deterrent to investment No Alaska BC il az Br q Ir a r t a be Al S re - N ia s h o o UK s f ne O f ic d o ia- ex In r a l M of st lf Au G u li a T e — tra s N W hor A u ff s th l ia O ou tr a -S us A U on rn A Mild deterrent to investment k te d Y u e s lan -W nd A U fou w Ne C DR E UA s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 27. a el zu ne Ve Would not invest a si fic us ci R Pa q — Ir a or e h f fs O ic RC nt Regulatory Uncertainty D ta tla e r —A lb A or e h ffs O l zi Offshore AL ra B nd Strong deterrent to investment T la W nd N ou AL f ew e— N or h f fs O a sk Alaska la A ay w or N S N AE - U ay o w ic or ex N fM C fo B S ul N G K- r e— U ho re ffs ho O n ff s lia Mild deterrent to investment ko -O t ra Yu alia us tr A us ut h ia A al So tr U- us A s A n xa t e r Te es W U- A 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 28. a el zu ne Ve a si fi c us ci Would not invest R Pa q — Ira ore h ffs Cost of Regulatory Compliance O T a W i N es n do In C B ay w NS Strong deterrent to investment or - N ay w or N a L Alaska s k —A la A ore nd h a ffs dl O oun f ew N ta er lb A l zi ic nt Offshore AL ra la B S At -N — K re U ho re ffs ho Mild deterrent to investment O ffs C O R a- D al i o tr ic us ex A n fM ko fo Yu ul G alia E A re — s tr l ia U ho Au stra ffs h O out Au -S te rn U A es -W U A s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 29. fi c ci Pa — re L c ho A nti ffs e — l a O or At h ffs e — O or wilderness or parks, marine life preserves, or archeological sites. h ffs Offshore AL O ka s la A ia Would not invest s us R ay w la or Uncertainty concerning what areas will be protected as N zu e ne Ve C B e T or sh Strong deterrent to investment W N ta ff er O lb ia- al ia A al tr tr Alaska us us A n A n k o te r Yu es S -W - N U A ay w ia or N nes do In l ia ic o zi al ra tr ex B us M A of Mild deterrent to investment q th l f Ira ou G u -S e — U d A or lan h ffs nd O ou f ew N S -N K U E A U s xa Te C R D 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0