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Travel pattern in the near future

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The document summarizes a market research study on travel patterns on the Western Railway line in Mumbai, India. It found that the probability of getting on a Virar Local train from Borivali station during peak hours is only 48.6%, indicating overcrowding is a major issue. It recommends accelerating projects to quadruple railway tracks and replace old engines and coaches to increase train speeds and frequencies to address the low probability of boarding trains from Borivali station.

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Market research study on “Travel pattern in near future” of western railway Report by 220 Heemanish Midde MMS – 1 (2007 – 2008) Xavier Institute of Management & Research, Mumbai Mumbai University

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1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank especially our friends Vishal Bhatia and Balasaheb Mahajan for their support and encouragement in and during the collection of data. They have been instrumental in completion of this project. I am grateful to The Western Railway for their patience and generosity in sharing of data. I would like to thank the Statistics department of St. Xavier’s College for their support and guidance in completion of this interesting project. Their advice and encouragement is appreciated. I am grateful to Prof. Macario for giving us this opportunity to work on the same. - Heemanish Midde

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2 TABLE OF CONTENTS i. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1.2. CURRENT SITUATION 2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE 2.2. PROBLEM STATEMENT 2.3. AIM 2.4. OBJECTIVE 2.5. PURPOSE 3. ASSUMPTIONS AND DECLARATIONS 4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 4.2. Research Design 4.3. Data Collection & Analysis 4.4. Calculations 4.5. Preliminary Conclusion 5. DATA INTERPRETATION 6. CONCLUSION 6.2. Causes 7. RECOMMENDATION

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3 1 INTRODUCTION The Mumbai Suburban Railway system, part of the public transportation system of Mumbai, is provided for by the state-run Indian Railways' two zonal Western Railways and Central Railways. The system carries more than 6.1 million commuters on a daily basis and constitutes more than half of the total daily passenger capacity of the Indian Railways itself. It has the highest passenger density of any urban railway system in the world. 1.2 CURRENT SITUATION The Western Railway line between Churchgate terminus and Dahanu Road carries about 2.6 million passengers per day, almost 43 percent of the total Mumbai suburban rail traffic. The annual passenger traffic density for the Western Line exceeds 145 million passenger-km per km of route per year. In other words, more than 145 million passengers travel, on average, over each km of line per year. The busiest segment, 60 km between Churchgate terminus and Virar, carries almost 900 million passengers per year. The annual traffic density, about 255 million passenger-km per km of route, is believed to be the world record for passenger rail transport. Due to its extensive reach across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, and its intensive use by the local urban population, overcrowding has grown to be a compelling problem (4,700 passengers are packed into a 9-car rake during peak hours, as against the rated carrying capacity of 1,700). This has resulted in what is known as Super-Dense Crush Load of 14 to 16 standing passengers per square meter of floor space. Trains on the suburban line are on average more than 4 minutes apart, contributing to the problem of overcrowding. People in this belt face a big commuting problem. Men even travel atop the trains and even precariously hang out, risking their lives nearly everyday. Many women also travel on one foot or half heels inside the train and half heels outside! Accidents are common along this belt. People living in these areas have been crying for better train facilities since many years. Their dreams will hopefully be a reality soon! The quadrupling project which began in 1990s was always halted or delayed due to number of reasons like - hutments in the way of the proposed tracks and many other ones!

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4 With population in the Borivali to Virar region rising (reason being rising real estate rates in main Mumbai and people moving for cheaper and bigger flats beyond), the commuting problem worsened.

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5 2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 2.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT A Person will board a Virar Local from Borivali Station during peak hours 2.2 AIM OF THE MARKET RESEARCH Calculating the probability of getting into a Virar bound Local from Borivali station during the peak hours 2.3 OBJECTIVE To Identify Causes of overcrowding To Identify Alternatives modes of transport 2.4 PURPOSE OF THE MARKET RESEARCH To verify the efficiency of Virar Locals

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6 3 ASSUMPTIONS & DECLARATIONS Our research is based on Data collected in year 2006 Considered only Virar bound local trains from 6.49pm to 8.19pm from Borivali Station Neglected Human Error Sample follows Normal Distribution

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7 4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 4.1 Research Design Primary Data to be collected through direct observations Counting the number of people (in a virtual area) before the train arrives at Borivali Station Counting the number of people (in that virtual area) after the train leaves Borivali Station The above is to be done for three coaches of the same train such that it covers most number of coaches of the train Secondary Data to be collected from Western Railway Headquarters, Churchgate Total capacity (seating and standing) Train Traffic Approximate Passenger Traffic

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8 4.2 Data Collection & Analysis Primary data m: Number of people who manage to get inside the coach n: Number of people who tried to get inside the coach p: Probability/chance of getting inside the coach 1st Coach 6th Coach 10th Coach Train m n m n m n 6.49 15 45 19 57 22 46 7.03 18 60 9 47 37 56 7.11 32 52 27 46 43 55 7.27 29 43 26 42 33 50 7.38 20 54 27 57 34 54 7.49 13 61 32 63 32 53 7.58 20 54 26 59 49 59 8.04 16 63 34 66 26 47 8.19 10 54 38 72 26 60 m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 N u m b e r 6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19 Train Timings Coach 1

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9 m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 N u m b e r 6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19 Train Timings Coach 2 m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 N u m b e r 6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19 Train Timings Coach 3 Secondary Data Train Capacity: 1,700 Train Traffic: 9 trains in 1 hr 30 mins Passenger Traffic at Borivali Station: 650

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10 4.3 Calculations 1st Coach 6th Coach 10th Coach Train m n p m n p m n p 6.49 15 45 0.333 19 57 0.333 22 46 0.478 7.03 18 60 0.3 9 47 0.191 37 56 0.661 7.11 32 52 0.615 27 46 0.587 43 55 0.782 7.27 29 43 0.674 26 42 0.619 33 50 0.66 7.38 20 54 0.37 27 57 0.474 34 54 0.63 7.49 13 61 0.213 32 63 0.508 32 53 0.604 7.58 20 54 0.37 26 59 0.441 49 59 0.831 8.04 16 63 0.254 34 66 0.515 26 47 0.553 8.19 10 54 0.185 38 72 0.528 26 60 0.433 m: Number of people who manage to get inside the coach n: Number of people who tried to get inside the coach p: Probability/chance of getting inside the coach Statistical Calculation Mean = 0.4867 Median = 0.508 Mode = 0.333 Range = 0.646 Inter – Quartile Range = 0.2655 Sample Variance = 0.0311 Sample Standard Deviation = 0.1763 Sample Skewness = -0.073 Sample Kurtosis = -0.7162 Population Variance = 0.0299 Population Standard Deviation = 0.1730 Population Skewness = -0.069 Population Kurtosis = -0.8045

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11 Probability calculated on the basis of Train and Coach Train Probability 6.49 0.380 7.03 0.399 7.11 0.663 7.27 0.652 7.38 0.488 7.49 0.439 7.58 0.550 8.04 0.437 8.19 0.390 Coach Probability 1st 0.362 6th 0.467 10th 0.627 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 P r o b a b i l i t y 6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19 Train Probability (Train)

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12 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 P r o b a b i l i t y 1st 6th 10th Coach Number Probability (Coach) 4.4 Preliminary Conclusion Probability of boarding the train from the 10th coach (0.627) is the highest while that of 1st coach (0.362) is lowest Probability of boarding the 7.11 local (0.663) is the highest while that of 6.49 local (0.380) is the lowest P [Getting into a Virar bound Local from Borivali station during the peak hours] = 0.486

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13 5 DATA INTERPRETATION The Probability of 0.486 shows that a person at Borivali Station waiting to board the Virar Local during the peak hours has a chance of less than 50% of being successful We can also interpret that the reason of higher success rate at/around coach number 10 could be because of the foot over bridge, which leads to the bus stop and the auto rickshaw stand outside the station

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14 6 CONCLUSION Probability of success being only 48.6% is very low In the near future the probability may drop even further due to the residential developments in the Vasai – Virar region and the commercial developments in the Borivali region The Western railways may end up falling into big trouble if they act fast!!! 6.1 Causes No direct road link between Borivali and Vasai-Virar No alternative mode of transportation

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15 7 RECOMMENDATION The project of Quadrupling of the railway tracks between Borivali and Virar has to take the front seat The old engines has to be replaced by newer and faster engines, which will increase the train speed and hence the frequency of the trains could be looked upon Old coaches/racks has to be replaced by new spacious and lighter ones

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16 A Positive outcome is that, The Western Railway has already taken its first step towards the improvement of Western Railway. They have started replacing their old engines and racks with new ones from May 2007 onwards. But they need to accelerate in the Quadrupling project. *****

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Travel pattern in the near future

  • 1. Market research study on “Travel pattern in near future” of western railway Report by 220 Heemanish Midde MMS – 1 (2007 – 2008) Xavier Institute of Management & Research, Mumbai Mumbai University
  • 2. 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank especially our friends Vishal Bhatia and Balasaheb Mahajan for their support and encouragement in and during the collection of data. They have been instrumental in completion of this project. I am grateful to The Western Railway for their patience and generosity in sharing of data. I would like to thank the Statistics department of St. Xavier’s College for their support and guidance in completion of this interesting project. Their advice and encouragement is appreciated. I am grateful to Prof. Macario for giving us this opportunity to work on the same. - Heemanish Midde
  • 3. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS i. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1.2. CURRENT SITUATION 2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE 2.2. PROBLEM STATEMENT 2.3. AIM 2.4. OBJECTIVE 2.5. PURPOSE 3. ASSUMPTIONS AND DECLARATIONS 4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 4.2. Research Design 4.3. Data Collection & Analysis 4.4. Calculations 4.5. Preliminary Conclusion 5. DATA INTERPRETATION 6. CONCLUSION 6.2. Causes 7. RECOMMENDATION
  • 4. 3 1 INTRODUCTION The Mumbai Suburban Railway system, part of the public transportation system of Mumbai, is provided for by the state-run Indian Railways' two zonal Western Railways and Central Railways. The system carries more than 6.1 million commuters on a daily basis and constitutes more than half of the total daily passenger capacity of the Indian Railways itself. It has the highest passenger density of any urban railway system in the world. 1.2 CURRENT SITUATION The Western Railway line between Churchgate terminus and Dahanu Road carries about 2.6 million passengers per day, almost 43 percent of the total Mumbai suburban rail traffic. The annual passenger traffic density for the Western Line exceeds 145 million passenger-km per km of route per year. In other words, more than 145 million passengers travel, on average, over each km of line per year. The busiest segment, 60 km between Churchgate terminus and Virar, carries almost 900 million passengers per year. The annual traffic density, about 255 million passenger-km per km of route, is believed to be the world record for passenger rail transport. Due to its extensive reach across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, and its intensive use by the local urban population, overcrowding has grown to be a compelling problem (4,700 passengers are packed into a 9-car rake during peak hours, as against the rated carrying capacity of 1,700). This has resulted in what is known as Super-Dense Crush Load of 14 to 16 standing passengers per square meter of floor space. Trains on the suburban line are on average more than 4 minutes apart, contributing to the problem of overcrowding. People in this belt face a big commuting problem. Men even travel atop the trains and even precariously hang out, risking their lives nearly everyday. Many women also travel on one foot or half heels inside the train and half heels outside! Accidents are common along this belt. People living in these areas have been crying for better train facilities since many years. Their dreams will hopefully be a reality soon! The quadrupling project which began in 1990s was always halted or delayed due to number of reasons like - hutments in the way of the proposed tracks and many other ones!
  • 5. 4 With population in the Borivali to Virar region rising (reason being rising real estate rates in main Mumbai and people moving for cheaper and bigger flats beyond), the commuting problem worsened.
  • 6. 5 2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 2.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT A Person will board a Virar Local from Borivali Station during peak hours 2.2 AIM OF THE MARKET RESEARCH Calculating the probability of getting into a Virar bound Local from Borivali station during the peak hours 2.3 OBJECTIVE To Identify Causes of overcrowding To Identify Alternatives modes of transport 2.4 PURPOSE OF THE MARKET RESEARCH To verify the efficiency of Virar Locals
  • 7. 6 3 ASSUMPTIONS & DECLARATIONS Our research is based on Data collected in year 2006 Considered only Virar bound local trains from 6.49pm to 8.19pm from Borivali Station Neglected Human Error Sample follows Normal Distribution
  • 8. 7 4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 4.1 Research Design Primary Data to be collected through direct observations Counting the number of people (in a virtual area) before the train arrives at Borivali Station Counting the number of people (in that virtual area) after the train leaves Borivali Station The above is to be done for three coaches of the same train such that it covers most number of coaches of the train Secondary Data to be collected from Western Railway Headquarters, Churchgate Total capacity (seating and standing) Train Traffic Approximate Passenger Traffic
  • 9. 8 4.2 Data Collection & Analysis Primary data m: Number of people who manage to get inside the coach n: Number of people who tried to get inside the coach p: Probability/chance of getting inside the coach 1st Coach 6th Coach 10th Coach Train m n m n m n 6.49 15 45 19 57 22 46 7.03 18 60 9 47 37 56 7.11 32 52 27 46 43 55 7.27 29 43 26 42 33 50 7.38 20 54 27 57 34 54 7.49 13 61 32 63 32 53 7.58 20 54 26 59 49 59 8.04 16 63 34 66 26 47 8.19 10 54 38 72 26 60 m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 N u m b e r 6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19 Train Timings Coach 1
  • 10. 9 m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 N u m b e r 6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19 Train Timings Coach 2 m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n m n 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 N u m b e r 6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19 Train Timings Coach 3 Secondary Data Train Capacity: 1,700 Train Traffic: 9 trains in 1 hr 30 mins Passenger Traffic at Borivali Station: 650
  • 11. 10 4.3 Calculations 1st Coach 6th Coach 10th Coach Train m n p m n p m n p 6.49 15 45 0.333 19 57 0.333 22 46 0.478 7.03 18 60 0.3 9 47 0.191 37 56 0.661 7.11 32 52 0.615 27 46 0.587 43 55 0.782 7.27 29 43 0.674 26 42 0.619 33 50 0.66 7.38 20 54 0.37 27 57 0.474 34 54 0.63 7.49 13 61 0.213 32 63 0.508 32 53 0.604 7.58 20 54 0.37 26 59 0.441 49 59 0.831 8.04 16 63 0.254 34 66 0.515 26 47 0.553 8.19 10 54 0.185 38 72 0.528 26 60 0.433 m: Number of people who manage to get inside the coach n: Number of people who tried to get inside the coach p: Probability/chance of getting inside the coach Statistical Calculation Mean = 0.4867 Median = 0.508 Mode = 0.333 Range = 0.646 Inter – Quartile Range = 0.2655 Sample Variance = 0.0311 Sample Standard Deviation = 0.1763 Sample Skewness = -0.073 Sample Kurtosis = -0.7162 Population Variance = 0.0299 Population Standard Deviation = 0.1730 Population Skewness = -0.069 Population Kurtosis = -0.8045
  • 12. 11 Probability calculated on the basis of Train and Coach Train Probability 6.49 0.380 7.03 0.399 7.11 0.663 7.27 0.652 7.38 0.488 7.49 0.439 7.58 0.550 8.04 0.437 8.19 0.390 Coach Probability 1st 0.362 6th 0.467 10th 0.627 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 P r o b a b i l i t y 6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19 Train Probability (Train)
  • 13. 12 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 P r o b a b i l i t y 1st 6th 10th Coach Number Probability (Coach) 4.4 Preliminary Conclusion Probability of boarding the train from the 10th coach (0.627) is the highest while that of 1st coach (0.362) is lowest Probability of boarding the 7.11 local (0.663) is the highest while that of 6.49 local (0.380) is the lowest P [Getting into a Virar bound Local from Borivali station during the peak hours] = 0.486
  • 14. 13 5 DATA INTERPRETATION The Probability of 0.486 shows that a person at Borivali Station waiting to board the Virar Local during the peak hours has a chance of less than 50% of being successful We can also interpret that the reason of higher success rate at/around coach number 10 could be because of the foot over bridge, which leads to the bus stop and the auto rickshaw stand outside the station
  • 15. 14 6 CONCLUSION Probability of success being only 48.6% is very low In the near future the probability may drop even further due to the residential developments in the Vasai – Virar region and the commercial developments in the Borivali region The Western railways may end up falling into big trouble if they act fast!!! 6.1 Causes No direct road link between Borivali and Vasai-Virar No alternative mode of transportation
  • 16. 15 7 RECOMMENDATION The project of Quadrupling of the railway tracks between Borivali and Virar has to take the front seat The old engines has to be replaced by newer and faster engines, which will increase the train speed and hence the frequency of the trains could be looked upon Old coaches/racks has to be replaced by new spacious and lighter ones
  • 17. 16 A Positive outcome is that, The Western Railway has already taken its first step towards the improvement of Western Railway. They have started replacing their old engines and racks with new ones from May 2007 onwards. But they need to accelerate in the Quadrupling project. *****