Seth Shapiro @ MFW13
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De presentatie die Seth Shapiro gaf tijdens Media Future Week 2013. Meer informatie: www.mediafutureweek.nl
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Seth Shapiro @ MFW13
- 1. Los Angeles | NewYork | Amsterdam The Future of Media Models seth@SethShapiro.com @sethrshapiro facebook.com/seth.shapiro Media FutureWeek
- 4. When the road is dark, use a Map
- 5. Brief History of 20th Century Media Media Business Models Made Easy Why TV Drives 21st Century Media The Future of Media Agenda
- 6. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC Agenda Brief History of 20th Century Media Media Business Models Made Easy Why TV Drives 21st Century Media The Future of Media
- 9. Publishing Content: News, magazines, books, trade pub Distribution: Presses, delivery Film Content: Motion Picture Production Distribution: Exhibition, regional/platform windows Music Content: Programming Content: Recordings and performances Distribution: Replication, delivery 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
- 10. Publishing
- 12. “Many of his writings were originally published serially, in monthly installments or parts... The practice lent his stories a particular rhythm, punctuated by cliffhangers, to keep the public looking forward to the next installment.”
- 14. + = ?
- 15. • Cut direct deals with Printers • Fires his Publishers • Self-publishes his work • Buys periodicals, gives them exclusives •Towards the end of his life, reads his books aloud
- 16. + = ?
- 18. Over time...
- 19. Publishing Books (Retail Sales) Newspapers (Subscription+ Ads) Magazines (Sales +Subscriptions + Ads)
- 20. Film
- 22. “In 1893, Thomas Edison patented the first efficient motion picture viewer, the kinetoscope. Kinetoscope parlors spread like crazy... ”
- 23. Edison’s Mistake As he had with the phonograph, Edison misjudged how the market was to develop. He didn’t think people would want to sit in audiences... – Edward Samuels
- 24. Edison’s Mistake As he had with the phonograph, Edison misjudged how the market was to develop. He didn’t think people would want to sit in audiences... – Edward Samuels
- 27. Over time...
- 28. Film Business Ticket Sales Physical Sales Licensing/Rights
- 29. Music
- 31. “These talking machines are going to ruin the artistic development of music in this country. Today you hear these infernal machines going night and day. We will not have a vocal cord left. The vocal cord will be eliminated by a process of evolution, as was the tail of man when he came from the ape.”
- 32. “These talking machines are going to ruin the artistic development of music in this country. We will not have a vocal cord left.The vocal cord will be eliminated by a process of evolution, as was the tail of man when he came from the ape.”
- 33. Over time...
- 34. Music Business Models Physical Sales Tickets Licensing/Rights
- 35. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC Publishing Content: Distribution: Film Content: Distribution: Television Content: Distribution: Music Content: Distribution: A Brief History of 20th Century Media Drive to Efficiencies
- 36. Publishing Content: Books, Newspapers, Magazines Distribution: Presses, delivery Film Content: Motion Picture Production Distribution: Exhibition, regional and platform rights Television Content: Programming and Advertising Distribution: Broadcast, Cable, Satellite Music Content: Recordings and Performances Distribution: Replication, Delivery 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC A Brief History of 20th Century Media Drive to Efficiencies
- 38. The Walt Disney Company • World's #1 media company by revenue • Member US Dow 30 • #1 Cable and #1 Sports entity: ESPN • Ownership of world's valuable cable franchises: ESPN • Ownership of Big 4 US network: ABC • Cable networks including Disney Channel,ABC Family, ESPN Family • Walt Disney Pictures,Touchstone, BuenaVista, Miramax • 11 global Disney Theme Parks • Marvel Entertainment •Disney Consumer Products •Walt Disney Internet Group •Disney Music Group •Radio Disney •Disney Interactive Media Group
- 39. The Big Six Media Giants: 2000 Walt Disney Company Disney Pictures Buena Vista Pictures Touchstone ESPN ABC WDIG (Internet Group) Disneyland Parks Time Warner HBO Warner Bros Turner Networks Warner Music New Line (formerly) AOL Viacom CBS Paramount MTV Networks Showtime Nickelodeon BET CMT Comedy Central News Corporation FOX Companies FX Networks FOX News Foxtel Wall Street Journal NY Post London Times (formerly) DIRECTV Comcast/NBC Universal Comcast Cable, NBC, MSNBC, CNBC, Universal Parks Telemundo, USA Networks, Bravo Sony Columbia Tri Star Sony Pictures Sony Music Sony Computer Sony Electronics
- 40. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC Agenda Brief History of 20th Century Media Media Business Models Made Easy Why TV Drives 21st Century Media The Future of Media
- 41. Books • A la carte Newspapers and Magazines • A la carte • Subscription • Advertising Publishing Business Models
- 42. Ticket sales (a la carte) Physical sales (a la carte) Licensing/Rights No Subscription or Advertising Film Business Models
- 43. Music Business Models • Album sales (major focus) • Ticket sales •Licensing/Rights •Very little Advertising •NO Subscription
- 44. 1 A la carte 2 Subscription 3 Advertising 4 Licensing/Rights (IP) 5 Ticket Sales 6 EnterpriseValue (being acquired, going public) Media Business Models
- 45. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC Agenda Brief History of 20th Century Media Media Business Models Made Easy Why TV Drives 21st Century Media The Future of Media
- 47. Terrestrial Cable Satellite 3 Networks 4 Networks 6 Networks Household Appliance Telco 100s of Networks What is television? [1950-1995]
- 48. What is television? [1995-2005] Big screen in your living room A community experience Delivered by a big provider (cable etc.) Professionally produced entertainment
- 50. What is Television? An ecosystem that allows for evolving business models
- 51. c. 1927: Philo Farnsworth invents his prototype c. 1941: FCC adopts NTSC c. 1948: CBS and NBC regularly scheduled broadcasts c. 70s: Satellite (B2B) – Birth of Basic Cable Networks c. 70-80s: High-End Consumer Satellite TV c. 94: DBS – Mainstream Sat TV – Birth of Competition c. 1999: Internet as a platform c. 2000s: Increased bandwidth, iTunes video, IPTV, Torrents c. 2010 Online and multi-platform video go mainstream Brief History of Television
- 52. •Very limited choice •Very broad audience • Free to User • Primary Business Model:Advertising TV 1.0: Broadcast Television
- 53. Broadcast Business Model • Massive volume • Ratings driven •Advertisers pay per spot • Ratings point = 1% of HH (1,159,000 HH for 2010–11) • Share = % of TVs in use that are tuned in How is success measured?
- 54. The Grey Flannel Golden Age Ratings point = 1% of HH (1,159,000 HH for 2010–11) Share = % ofTVs in use that are tuned in 1952-53 I Love Lucy 67.3r 1980-81 Dallas: 34.5r 2005-06 American Idol : 11r Arguably, the Broadcast TV Era peaks w ‘83 M*A*S*H Finale: 60r/77s (28 year record)
- 56. TV 2.0: The Cable Era
- 57. Cable • Greatly expanded choice (100s) • Smaller audiences: “Narrowcasting” • Expensive to user • Primary rev: Subscription • Secondary $:Advertising Broadcast •Very limited choice (4) •Very broad audience • Free to User • Primary rev:Advertising • Secondary $: Device sales TV 2.0: The Cable Era
- 59. Over time... Subscription TV becomes the most powerful media in world history.
- 60. Text 2002 2009 Comedy Central = $.13 per sub, per month
- 62. $.13 sub/m x 12 x 99,700,000 HH $155 million in subscription fees, per year, before advertising.
- 63. $.13 sub/m x 12 x 99,700,000 HH $155 million in subscription fees, per year, before advertising. 15 cable networks x avg $.20 per month = $3.6 billion. ESPN = Over $6 billion per year in subscription alone.
- 64. MEDIA ECONOMICS BY FAR, the most valuable assets in global media are cable networks. US MSO Subscriber Revenues = app. $135 billion per year. Google’s 2010 Revenue = $28B
- 65. MEDIA ECONOMICS BY FAR, the most valuable assets in global media are cable networks. US TV 2010 Subscriber Revenue = app. $135 billion per year. Google’s 2010 Revenue = $28B
- 66. American Movie Classics AMC was originally a premium cable channel that aired classic movies... By 1989, the channel had 39 million subscribers in the United States. – wikipedia
- 67. $.23 sub/m x 12 x 88,000,000 HH app. $155 million AMC: app 88 million US households
- 68. 1. Experienced Producer has show idea. 2. He goes to HBO, SHO, NBC, CBS... 6. Network: “Get out of my office.”
- 69. 3. “I need $30 to make a great show” [$2.3M x13 episodes] 4. Network: “Who are the stars?”, etc. 5. Producer: “No - it’s a period drama.” 6. Network: “Get out of my office.”
- 70. 3. “I need $30 to make a great show” [$2.3M x13 episodes] 4. Network: “Who are the stars?”, etc. 5. Producer: “No - it’s a period drama.” 6. Network: “Get out of my office.”
- 71. No model.
- 72. Broadcast vs. Narrowcast Goes to AMC: "You get .23 cents a house..." "... what if we can double that?""... what if we can double that?" What if we can build a premium brand?
- 73. What if we can build a premium brand? ?
- 74. US $2.3 million x 13 episodes US$30,000,000 1.9 rating = No Way "period drama" Old model:
- 75. US $2.3 million x 13 episodes US$30,000,000 (est.) Build brand, increase sub fee = "OK" "period drama" TV 3.0
- 77. US $2.3 million x 13 episodes US$30,000,000 1.9 rating = “No Way” Build You a Brand = “OK” Targeting Old Model vs. New
- 78. Matthew Weiner is the creator, executive producer, head writer, and show runner of the AMC television series Mad Men.Weiner has received eight Emmy Awards and three Golden Globe Awards for Mad Men. Mad Men has won the Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series three consecutive years (2008, 2009, 2010). Weiner was named one of the 2011 Time 100 Most Influential People In The World. --Wikipedia
- 79. “... Rainbow is angling for AMC to receive 50 cents a subscriber per month from distributors in its next round of negotiations.” $.23 to $.50 $155M to $310M
- 80. American Movie Classics .23 s/m x 12x 88M HH = $253M .75 s/m x 12x 98.7M HH = $888M (floated)
- 81. Agenda 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC Brief History of 20th Century Media Media Business Models Made Easy Why TV Leads 21st Century Media The Future of Media
- 82. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC The Future of Media Trend 1: The Second Screen is the New TV Trend 2: Over The Top is the New Cable Trend 3: Community is the New Network Trend 4: Data is the New Advertising
- 86. CONNECTED TV AND CONSUMERS – HILVERSUM, NETHERLANDS – FEBRUARY 7, 2012 Seventy percent of tablet owners and 68 percent of smartphone owners said they use their devices while watching television.
- 88. Turner Embraces Social TV, Interactive Ads via 'Conan' App As part of a major push by Turner’s entertainment networks to embrace second-screen viewing, users of the new Conan app (sponsored byAT&T) will be periodically greeted with pop-ups within the app featuring information relevant to the show, such as facts about a guest’s movie career. And soon enough, viewers will be able to buy tickets to those guests’ movies via the app.
- 89. CONAN
- 90. Turner Embraces Social TV, Interactive Ads via 'Conan' App As part of a major push by Turner’s entertainment networks to embrace second-screen viewing, users of the new Conan app (sponsored byAT&T) will be periodically greeted with pop-ups within the app featuring information relevant to the show, such as facts about a guest’s movie career. And soon enough, viewers will be able to buy tickets to those guests’ movies via the app.
- 91. The Second Screen... becomes the TV itself.
- 92. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC The Future of Media Trend 1: The Second Screen is the New TV Trend 2: Over The Top is the New Cable Trend 3: Community is the New Network Trend 4: Data is the New Advertising
- 93. Subscription 3.0
- 94. • Founded 1997 as subscription DVD delivery service • Monthly fee, unlimited rentals • Supported DVD sales for studios • Non-‐premiere movies previous season TV • Great recommendation engine
- 96. 2013: Net)lix surpasses Comcast as world’s #1 subscription video service
- 99. Owned By:
- 100. •Advertising • Subscription • Intellectual Property (original programs) • EnterpriseValue
- 101. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC The Future of Media Trend 1: The Second Screen is the New TV Trend 2: Over The Top is the New Cable Trend 3: Community is the New Network Trend 4: Data is the New Advertising
- 103. Total population of Europe, 2011: 734,228,971 persons
- 104. Epic Meal Time is a YouTube cooking show known for creating extremely high-calorie meals from meat (with emphasis on bacon) and alcohol .
- 105. United States population (April 1, 2013): 315,858,000 – Wikipedia
- 107. Machinima: #1 Content Channel on YouTube
- 108. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC The Future of Media 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC Trend 1: The Second Screen is the New TV Trend 2: Over The Top is the New Cable Trend 3: Community is the New Network Trend 4: Data is the New Advertising
- 109. • Are you buying diapers in the morning, or your third BMW?
- 119. Future Media Trends • Efficiency: Customer data transforms advertising • Constituency: Communities become the new networks • Conversation: Media moves from monologue to dialogue • Privacy,Redefined: If you’re not paying, you are the product
- 120. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC Agenda Brief History of 20th Century Media Media Business Models Made Easy Why TV Drives 21st Century Media The Future of Media Golden Rules for Media Entrepreneurs
- 121. 1. Solve a Problem “Our value proposition has been in remembering.”
- 122. 2. Skate Where the Puck is Going
- 123. 3. The #1 Question To Ask Successful People:
- 124. “How can I help?” 3. The #1 Question To Ask Successful People:
- 125. 4. The Secret to Succeeding in Media
- 126. “Nobody Knows Anything.” 4. The Secret to Succeeding in Media
- 127. "Anything new, anything worth doing, can't be recognized." - Picasso 5. Be The Change
- 128. Los Angeles | NewYork | Amsterdam DANK U WEL! seth@SethShapiro.com @sethrshapiro facebook.com/seth.shapiro