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Taiwan strait

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Jodi Dobinsky

The document discusses the history of tensions in the Taiwan Strait and different policy options for the US regarding Taiwan. It outlines three Taiwan Strait crises from 1954-1996 when China fired missiles near Taiwan in response to Taiwan moving away from the One-China policy. The document then presents three potential solutions or recommendations for US policy: 1) specify in advance a commitment to defend Taiwan, 2) declare punishment for any actor upsetting the status quo, or 3) continue strategic ambiguity to prevent provocation while preserving the status quo. The author does not make a clear recommendation.

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Should the U.S. change its policy on the Taiwan Straits?By Chris Hansen
History of the Taiwan Strait111 mile strait between China and TaiwanChina-Taiwan debatePeoples Republic of China (PRC)Republic of China (ROC) = “Taiwan”Taiwan Strait Crisis(es)
History of the Taiwan StraitU.S.-ROC Defense Treaty (1954)Taiwan Relations Act (1979)Passed after establishment of diplomatic relations with PRC and BeijingBreaking off of relations with ROC re defined the American position on Taiwan.U.S. doesn’t recognize the PRC vs. ROC terminologyAct provides Taiwan to be treated under U.S. International lawsOne-China Policy (1992)Policy that views China as a single state despite two separate governments.Both PRC and ROC honor the policy however both disagree about which state is legitimate.
History of the Taiwan StraitFirst Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-1955)Conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”PRC took over the Yijianghan Islands forcing the ROC to abandon the Tachen Islands.The U.S. Navy helped evacuate ROC forces back to the Taiwan mainland.Quemoy and Matsu Islands became ROC first line of defense against the Communist Party of China.
History of the Taiwan StraitSecond Taiwan Strait Crisis (1958)Continuation of First Taiwan Strait Crisis and the conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”Artillery battle – 2,700 killedU.S. Offered Aid to ROC under U.S.-ROC Defense Treaty.Air battle featuring the F-86 vs Chinese MiGsCrisis lasted 44 days = Stalemate PRC called for peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue
History of the Taiwan StraitThird Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996)PRC conducted missile tests surrounding TaiwanMissiles were intended to send a strong message to the ROC (because Lee-TengHui was moving ROC foreign policy away from the One-China Policy.)Response to 1996 election build-upU.S. responded by sending naval fleet into the Taiwan StraitDisplay to the PRC that the US was ready, willing, and able to defend TaiwanHonor the Taiwan Relations Act
Solution 1Abandon strategic uncertanty and specify in advance US defense commitment to defend Taiwan
Solution 2Abandon strategic ambiguity and declare that the US will punish whichever player first moves to upset the status quo.
Solution 3 Continue to be ambiguous about US commitment to defend Taiwan. In this paper, we develop a game-theoretic model to study the conditions under which an ambiguous security commitment can actually work to preserve the status quo by preventing both China and Taiwan from provoking each other
My RecommendationSolution
Bibliographyhttp://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/quemoy_matsu.htmhttp://www.cgsc.edu/carl/download/csipubs/bjorge_huai.pdfhttp://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press.aspx

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Taiwan strait

  • 1. Should the U.S. change its policy on the Taiwan Straits?By Chris Hansen
  • 2. History of the Taiwan Strait111 mile strait between China and TaiwanChina-Taiwan debatePeoples Republic of China (PRC)Republic of China (ROC) = “Taiwan”Taiwan Strait Crisis(es)
  • 3. History of the Taiwan StraitU.S.-ROC Defense Treaty (1954)Taiwan Relations Act (1979)Passed after establishment of diplomatic relations with PRC and BeijingBreaking off of relations with ROC re defined the American position on Taiwan.U.S. doesn’t recognize the PRC vs. ROC terminologyAct provides Taiwan to be treated under U.S. International lawsOne-China Policy (1992)Policy that views China as a single state despite two separate governments.Both PRC and ROC honor the policy however both disagree about which state is legitimate.
  • 4. History of the Taiwan StraitFirst Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-1955)Conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”PRC took over the Yijianghan Islands forcing the ROC to abandon the Tachen Islands.The U.S. Navy helped evacuate ROC forces back to the Taiwan mainland.Quemoy and Matsu Islands became ROC first line of defense against the Communist Party of China.
  • 5. History of the Taiwan StraitSecond Taiwan Strait Crisis (1958)Continuation of First Taiwan Strait Crisis and the conflict between PRC and ROC “Taiwan”Artillery battle – 2,700 killedU.S. Offered Aid to ROC under U.S.-ROC Defense Treaty.Air battle featuring the F-86 vs Chinese MiGsCrisis lasted 44 days = Stalemate PRC called for peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue
  • 6. History of the Taiwan StraitThird Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996)PRC conducted missile tests surrounding TaiwanMissiles were intended to send a strong message to the ROC (because Lee-TengHui was moving ROC foreign policy away from the One-China Policy.)Response to 1996 election build-upU.S. responded by sending naval fleet into the Taiwan StraitDisplay to the PRC that the US was ready, willing, and able to defend TaiwanHonor the Taiwan Relations Act
  • 7. Solution 1Abandon strategic uncertanty and specify in advance US defense commitment to defend Taiwan
  • 8. Solution 2Abandon strategic ambiguity and declare that the US will punish whichever player first moves to upset the status quo.
  • 9. Solution 3 Continue to be ambiguous about US commitment to defend Taiwan. In this paper, we develop a game-theoretic model to study the conditions under which an ambiguous security commitment can actually work to preserve the status quo by preventing both China and Taiwan from provoking each other