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Aligning UK car emissions with The Paris Agreement (1.5-2°C) - provisional carbon budget analysis for DecarboN8 by Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy & Climate Change

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1) The document discusses aligning UK car emissions with the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5-2°C. 2) It argues that the question should not be what reductions the car sector can deliver, but what total reductions does the science and equity of the Paris Agreement require from the car sector. 3) Based on carbon budget analysis from the IPCC, the global carbon budget from 2020 onwards allows approximately 655 gigatons of CO2 for energy use to 2100 to meet the Paris goals. The UK's fair share of this budget allows only 3-3.8 gigatons of CO2 for energy use from 2020-2100, equivalent to less than 9

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Twitter: @KevinClimate Kevin Anderson Professor of Energy & Climate Change Aligning UK car emissions with Paris (1.5-2°C) provisional carbon budget analysis for DecarboN8
Reframe the question Not, what can the UK car sector deliver in terms of reducing emissions
Not, what can the UK car sector deliver in terms of reducing emissions … but … What total reductions does Paris require the car sector to deliver? Reframe the question
 To take the Paris “well below 2°C” & “pursue … 1.5°C” commitment at face value  To be based on science AND equity  To ignore political and economic sensibilities This frames a far more challenging mitigation agenda than other analysis Reframe the question
What does the IPCC tell us about Paris?
[i.e. it’s CARBON BUDGETS that matter for temperature, NOT LONG-TERM TARGETS]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr)Carbondioxideemissions The Carbon Budget The carbon budget (e.g. for 2°C) is the area under the curve
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr)Carbondioxideemissions A If we delay stringent mitigation today We emit additional CO2 (A)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr) … which must be compensated later (B) Carbondioxideemissions B A
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr) with still higher mitigation rates … if possible! Carbondioxideemissions B A
So how big is the “well below 2°C” budget?
According to the IPCC …  To meet the Paris “well below 2°C” & “pursue … 1.5°C” commitment  From 2020 the global carbon budget for energy is ~655GtCO2 (to 2100 & beyond)  In 2018 global CO2 energy emissions were ~37GtCO2  i.e. under 18 years of current emissions
Translating Paris to UK budgets
To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise … …We need to understand: the science & maths of climate change
3°C to 4°C 740GtCO2 4°C to 6°C ~1600GtCO2 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2018
… alternatively … it’s all about pies …
To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise … we have a set Global carbon pie i.e. total CO2 that can be emitted from now to forever … 655GtCO2 (from 2020 & from energy only)
… this needs to be split equitably amongst all of the world’s nations To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise …
What is a fair slice (carbon budget) for the EU?
Of the EU carbon budget …
… how much should the UK get?
… in terms of numbers The UK’s fair Paris 2°C carbon budget for energy is ~3 to 3.8GtCO2 … for 2020 to 2100 & beyond* i.e. <9 years of current emissions* *includes aviation & shipping
… from budgets to mitigation rates
 Rapidly ramp up mitigation to 13% p.a.  A total reduction of around 80% by 2030 (cf. 1990)  ~fully decarbonised energy by around 2035-40 Headline mitigation for UK’s Paris commitment
‘Fair’ 2°C pathways for the UK Why such difference to the CCC? 1) The CCC analysis is based on ‘net-zero’ by 2050 (not Paris 2°C) … ours is based on ‘real-zero’ inline with carbon budgets for 1.5-2°C 2) The CCC assume planetary scale uptake of speculative ‘negative emission technologies’ … we exclude such reliance on fledgling future technologies 3) The CCC ignore the clear international equity steer in the Paris Agreement etc. i.e. the CCC assume a disproportionate slice of the global 1.5-2°C carbon budget … we embed an explicit equity dimension 4) The CCC analysis is for all UK CO2 … ours is for energy, we remove CO2 from deforestation & process emissions (cement)
the Car sector
 We’ve established a fair 1.5-2°C budget for the UK  There are different ways of allocating this across the UK - by region (e.g. Scotland, Wales, Greater Manchester) - by individual (personal carbon allowance for adults) - by sector (aviation, shipping … cars)  All have their relative merits and drawbacks Dividing the UK carbon budget
For today, our focus is on a Carbon Budget for cars … …& assuming all sectors have a ‘fair’ proportion of the remaining UK budget
For today, our focus is on Carbon Budget for cars … The most optimistic budget for the car sector is: ~550MtCO2 … for 2020 onwards i.e. 7 to 8 years of current emissions*
But the DfT & the CCC privilege aviation
Updated in the CCC’s net-zero report
The CCC net-zero aviation budget equates to ~38% of the UK’s fair Paris 1.5-2°C carbon budget … significantly reducing the budget available for all other sectors including terrestrial transport (so just ~340MtCO2 – i.e. <5yrs of current car use) But the DfT & the CCC privilege aviation
What does this imply for the car sector?
 Immediate tightening of new car standards to <100gCO2/km  ~Complete transition to EV (or v.low CO2 alternatives) by 2035  Shift to very low carbon electricity by 2030-35 (~8 to 50gCO2/kWh) But still need rapid reduction in vehicle-km (~50-65%) … for a 1.5-2°C future
Ultimately … Alex Steffen 2017 Winning slowly is basically the same thing as losing outright. In the face of both triumphant denialism and predatory delay, trying to achieve climate action by doing the same things, the same old ways means defeat. It guarantees defeat.
Twitter: @KevinClimate Thanks for listening Kevin Anderson Professor of Energy & Climate Change

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Aligning UK car emissions with The Paris Agreement (1.5-2°C) - provisional carbon budget analysis for DecarboN8 by Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy & Climate Change

  • 1. Twitter: @KevinClimate Kevin Anderson Professor of Energy & Climate Change Aligning UK car emissions with Paris (1.5-2°C) provisional carbon budget analysis for DecarboN8
  • 2. Reframe the question Not, what can the UK car sector deliver in terms of reducing emissions
  • 3. Not, what can the UK car sector deliver in terms of reducing emissions … but … What total reductions does Paris require the car sector to deliver? Reframe the question
  • 4.  To take the Paris “well below 2°C” & “pursue … 1.5°C” commitment at face value  To be based on science AND equity  To ignore political and economic sensibilities This frames a far more challenging mitigation agenda than other analysis Reframe the question
  • 5. What does the IPCC tell us about Paris?
  • 6. [i.e. it’s CARBON BUDGETS that matter for temperature, NOT LONG-TERM TARGETS]
  • 7. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr)Carbondioxideemissions The Carbon Budget The carbon budget (e.g. for 2°C) is the area under the curve
  • 8. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr)Carbondioxideemissions A If we delay stringent mitigation today We emit additional CO2 (A)
  • 9. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr) … which must be compensated later (B) Carbondioxideemissions B A
  • 10. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr) with still higher mitigation rates … if possible! Carbondioxideemissions B A
  • 11. So how big is the “well below 2°C” budget?
  • 12. According to the IPCC …  To meet the Paris “well below 2°C” & “pursue … 1.5°C” commitment  From 2020 the global carbon budget for energy is ~655GtCO2 (to 2100 & beyond)  In 2018 global CO2 energy emissions were ~37GtCO2  i.e. under 18 years of current emissions
  • 13. Translating Paris to UK budgets
  • 14. To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise … …We need to understand: the science & maths of climate change
  • 15. 3°C to 4°C 740GtCO2 4°C to 6°C ~1600GtCO2 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2018
  • 16. … alternatively … it’s all about pies …
  • 17. To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise … we have a set Global carbon pie i.e. total CO2 that can be emitted from now to forever … 655GtCO2 (from 2020 & from energy only)
  • 18. … this needs to be split equitably amongst all of the world’s nations To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise …
  • 19. What is a fair slice (carbon budget) for the EU?
  • 20. Of the EU carbon budget …
  • 21. … how much should the UK get?
  • 22. … in terms of numbers The UK’s fair Paris 2°C carbon budget for energy is ~3 to 3.8GtCO2 … for 2020 to 2100 & beyond* i.e. <9 years of current emissions* *includes aviation & shipping
  • 23. … from budgets to mitigation rates
  • 24.  Rapidly ramp up mitigation to 13% p.a.  A total reduction of around 80% by 2030 (cf. 1990)  ~fully decarbonised energy by around 2035-40 Headline mitigation for UK’s Paris commitment
  • 25. ‘Fair’ 2°C pathways for the UK Why such difference to the CCC? 1) The CCC analysis is based on ‘net-zero’ by 2050 (not Paris 2°C) … ours is based on ‘real-zero’ inline with carbon budgets for 1.5-2°C 2) The CCC assume planetary scale uptake of speculative ‘negative emission technologies’ … we exclude such reliance on fledgling future technologies 3) The CCC ignore the clear international equity steer in the Paris Agreement etc. i.e. the CCC assume a disproportionate slice of the global 1.5-2°C carbon budget … we embed an explicit equity dimension 4) The CCC analysis is for all UK CO2 … ours is for energy, we remove CO2 from deforestation & process emissions (cement)
  • 27.  We’ve established a fair 1.5-2°C budget for the UK  There are different ways of allocating this across the UK - by region (e.g. Scotland, Wales, Greater Manchester) - by individual (personal carbon allowance for adults) - by sector (aviation, shipping … cars)  All have their relative merits and drawbacks Dividing the UK carbon budget
  • 28. For today, our focus is on a Carbon Budget for cars … …& assuming all sectors have a ‘fair’ proportion of the remaining UK budget
  • 29. For today, our focus is on Carbon Budget for cars … The most optimistic budget for the car sector is: ~550MtCO2 … for 2020 onwards i.e. 7 to 8 years of current emissions*
  • 30. But the DfT & the CCC privilege aviation
  • 31. Updated in the CCC’s net-zero report
  • 32. The CCC net-zero aviation budget equates to ~38% of the UK’s fair Paris 1.5-2°C carbon budget … significantly reducing the budget available for all other sectors including terrestrial transport (so just ~340MtCO2 – i.e. <5yrs of current car use) But the DfT & the CCC privilege aviation
  • 33. What does this imply for the car sector?
  • 34.  Immediate tightening of new car standards to <100gCO2/km  ~Complete transition to EV (or v.low CO2 alternatives) by 2035  Shift to very low carbon electricity by 2030-35 (~8 to 50gCO2/kWh) But still need rapid reduction in vehicle-km (~50-65%) … for a 1.5-2°C future
  • 35. Ultimately … Alex Steffen 2017 Winning slowly is basically the same thing as losing outright. In the face of both triumphant denialism and predatory delay, trying to achieve climate action by doing the same things, the same old ways means defeat. It guarantees defeat.
  • 36. Twitter: @KevinClimate Thanks for listening Kevin Anderson Professor of Energy & Climate Change