Aligning UK car emissions with The Paris Agreement (1.5-2°C) - provisional carbon budget analysis for DecarboN8 by Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy & Climate Change
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1) The document discusses aligning UK car emissions with the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5-2°C.
2) It argues that the question should not be what reductions the car sector can deliver, but what total reductions does the science and equity of the Paris Agreement require from the car sector.
3) Based on carbon budget analysis from the IPCC, the global carbon budget from 2020 onwards allows approximately 655 gigatons of CO2 for energy use to 2100 to meet the Paris goals. The UK's fair share of this budget allows only 3-3.8 gigatons of CO2 for energy use from 2020-2100, equivalent to less than 9
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Aligning UK car emissions with The Paris Agreement (1.5-2°C) - provisional carbon budget analysis for DecarboN8 by Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy & Climate Change
3. Not, what can the UK car sector deliver in terms of reducing emissions
… but …
What total reductions does Paris require the car sector to deliver?
Reframe the question
4. To take the Paris “well below 2°C” & “pursue … 1.5°C” commitment at face value
To be based on science AND equity
To ignore political and economic sensibilities
This frames a far more challenging mitigation agenda than other analysis
Reframe the question
6. [i.e. it’s CARBON BUDGETS that matter for temperature, NOT LONG-TERM TARGETS]
7. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr)Carbondioxideemissions
The Carbon Budget
The carbon budget (e.g. for 2°C) is the area under the curve
8. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2emissions(GtCO2/yr)Carbondioxideemissions
A
If we delay stringent mitigation today
We emit additional CO2 (A)
12. According to the IPCC …
To meet the Paris “well below 2°C” & “pursue … 1.5°C” commitment
From 2020 the global carbon budget for energy is ~655GtCO2
(to 2100 & beyond)
In 2018 global CO2 energy emissions were ~37GtCO2
i.e. under 18 years of current emissions
17. To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise …
we have a set
Global carbon pie
i.e. total CO2 that can be
emitted from now to
forever …
655GtCO2
(from 2020
& from energy only)
18. … this needs to be split
equitably amongst
all of the world’s nations
To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise …
19. What is a fair slice (carbon budget) for the EU?
22. … in terms of numbers
The UK’s fair Paris 2°C carbon budget for energy is
~3 to 3.8GtCO2 … for 2020 to 2100 & beyond*
i.e. <9 years of current emissions*
*includes aviation & shipping
24. Rapidly ramp up mitigation to 13% p.a.
A total reduction of around 80% by 2030 (cf. 1990)
~fully decarbonised energy by around 2035-40
Headline mitigation for UK’s Paris commitment
25. ‘Fair’ 2°C pathways for the UK
Why such difference to the CCC?
1) The CCC analysis is based on ‘net-zero’ by 2050 (not Paris 2°C)
… ours is based on ‘real-zero’ inline with carbon budgets for 1.5-2°C
2) The CCC assume planetary scale uptake of speculative ‘negative emission technologies’
… we exclude such reliance on fledgling future technologies
3) The CCC ignore the clear international equity steer in the Paris Agreement etc.
i.e. the CCC assume a disproportionate slice of the global 1.5-2°C carbon budget
… we embed an explicit equity dimension
4) The CCC analysis is for all UK CO2
… ours is for energy, we remove CO2 from deforestation & process emissions (cement)
27. We’ve established a fair 1.5-2°C budget for the UK
There are different ways of allocating this across the UK
- by region (e.g. Scotland, Wales, Greater Manchester)
- by individual (personal carbon allowance for adults)
- by sector (aviation, shipping … cars)
All have their relative merits and drawbacks
Dividing the UK carbon budget
28. For today, our focus is on a Carbon Budget for cars …
…& assuming all sectors have a ‘fair’
proportion of the remaining UK budget
29. For today, our focus is on Carbon Budget for cars …
The most optimistic budget for the car sector is:
~550MtCO2
… for 2020 onwards
i.e. 7 to 8 years of current emissions*
32. The CCC net-zero aviation budget equates
to ~38% of the UK’s fair Paris 1.5-2°C carbon budget
… significantly reducing the budget available for all other sectors
including terrestrial transport
(so just ~340MtCO2 – i.e. <5yrs of current car use)
But the DfT & the CCC privilege aviation
34. Immediate tightening of new car standards to <100gCO2/km
~Complete transition to EV (or v.low CO2 alternatives) by 2035
Shift to very low carbon electricity by 2030-35 (~8 to 50gCO2/kWh)
But still need rapid reduction in vehicle-km (~50-65%)
… for a 1.5-2°C future
35. Ultimately …
Alex Steffen 2017
Winning slowly is basically the same thing as
losing outright. In the face of both triumphant
denialism and predatory delay, trying to achieve
climate action by doing the same things, the same
old ways means defeat. It guarantees defeat.