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Brussels Briefing n. 56: Craig Hanson "Sustainability of resources and conflict prevention through the nexus approach"

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Brussels Briefings (brusselsbriefings.net)
Brussels Briefings (brusselsbriefings.net)

The Brussels Development Briefing n. 56 on The Land-Water-Energy nexus and the Sustainability of the Food System organised by CTA, the European Commission/EuropeAid, the ACP Secretariat and Concord was held on 3rd of July 2019, 9h00-13h00 at the ACP Secretariat, Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels, Room C.

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July, 2019 Craig Hanson (Vice President of Food, Forests, Water, & the Ocean at the World Resources Institute) SUSTAINABILITY OF RESOURCES AND CONFLICT PREVENTION THROUGH THE NEXUS APPROACH Photo: Espen Faugstad
wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future WORLD RESOURCES REPORT How can the world feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050 in a way that advances economic development while reducing pressure on the environment (climate, water, ecosystems)?
wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future THE PARTNERS
1. THE FOOD GAP: 56% MORE FOOD NEEDED BY 2050 wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
2. THE LAND GAP: AVOID 593 MILLION HECTARES OF AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future 3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP
wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future 3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP
A MENU OF SOLUTIONS COULD CLOSE ALL 3 GAPS
+56% +68% +28–61% +120 Mha +400 Mha Crop demand Meat/dairy demand Timber products demand Expansion of pastureland Expansion of urban areas +88% Beef/lamb demand +200 Mha Expansion of cropland Sources: Searchinger et al. (2018), Elias and Boucher (2014), Seto et al. (2012), WWF (2012). Projections are “business as usual” and range from 2000-2030 to 2010-2060 image credit: Sam Beebe, Ecotrust +250 Mha? Expansion of timber plantations FOOD-LAND NEXUS: INCREASING COMPETITION FOR LAND
70% 30% Water Withdrawals Agriculture Other FOOD-WATER NEXUS Much of the world’s cropland is water stressed All 28% of cropland in highly water stressed areas Irrigated 56% of irrigated land in highly water stressed areas
Source: WRI analysis based on UNEP (2012), FAO (2012e), EIA (2012), IEA (2012), and Houghton (2008) with adjustments. Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. * LULUCF = Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry. ** Includes emissions from on-farm energy consumption as well as from manufacturing of farm tractors, irrigation pumps, other machinery, and key inputs such as fertilizer. It excludes emissions from the transport of food. *** Excludes emissions from agricultural energy sources described above. FOOD-ENERGY NEXUS
LAND-ENERGY NEXUS
6.0 3.3 6.8 14.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 14 TWh of electricity is enough to power Sri Lanka for an entire year Sources: WRI Analysis; CEA 2016; Platts 2016; CIA 2014 WATER-ENERGY NEXUS Example: More than 30 TWh of electricity generation ($2.8 billion in revenue) was lost in India due to power plant shutdowns caused by water shortages (2013-2016)
Source: The Global Risks 2015 Report. World Economic Forum. 2015. Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2018.
Brussels Briefing n. 56: Craig Hanson "Sustainability of resources and conflict prevention through the nexus approach"
Hold for video
Hold for video PREDICTING CONFLICT?
A MENU OF SOLUTIONS COULD CLOSE ALL 3 GAPS
July, 2019 Craig Hanson (Vice President of Food, Forests, Water, & the Ocean at the World Resources Institute) SUSTAINABILITY OF RESOURCES AND CONFLICT PREVENTION THROUGH THE NEXUS APPROACH Photo: Espen Faugstad
APPENDIX
Source: World Energy Outlook 2018 More than 90% of today’s global power generation depends on water All hydro power plants depend on water for generating electricity 2017 nited States pean Union developing economies India China d economies Japan 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2017 Coal Gas Nuclear Oil Wind Hydro Other Solar PV Electricity generation Most coal, gas, oil, and nuclear plants depend on water for cooling Some other types of thermal plants, like concentrated solar and biomass, also depend on water for cooling Global electricity generation share by fuel
Types of water-related shutdowns United States France India Balkans Romania Kenya Brazil Thermal plants No cooling water available due to water shortages No discharge allowed due to high temperatures Hydro plants Low water levels in reservoirs Note: the table is not all inclusive, but includes examples in countries that are representative in terms of development status and geography in the recent years. Power plants around the globe are experiencing disruptions caused by water constraints
AQUEDUCT FOOD LANDING PAGE: GLOBAL CROP LAYER
AREA WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA
DROUGHT RISK WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA
DROUGHT RISK WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA AND % OF POPULATION AT RISK OF HUNGER

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Brussels Briefing n. 56: Craig Hanson "Sustainability of resources and conflict prevention through the nexus approach"

  • 1. July, 2019 Craig Hanson (Vice President of Food, Forests, Water, & the Ocean at the World Resources Institute) SUSTAINABILITY OF RESOURCES AND CONFLICT PREVENTION THROUGH THE NEXUS APPROACH Photo: Espen Faugstad
  • 2. wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future WORLD RESOURCES REPORT How can the world feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050 in a way that advances economic development while reducing pressure on the environment (climate, water, ecosystems)?
  • 3. wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future THE PARTNERS
  • 4. 1. THE FOOD GAP: 56% MORE FOOD NEEDED BY 2050 wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
  • 5. 2. THE LAND GAP: AVOID 593 MILLION HECTARES OF AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
  • 6. 3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
  • 7. wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future 3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP
  • 8. wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future 3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP
  • 9. A MENU OF SOLUTIONS COULD CLOSE ALL 3 GAPS
  • 10. +56% +68% +28–61% +120 Mha +400 Mha Crop demand Meat/dairy demand Timber products demand Expansion of pastureland Expansion of urban areas +88% Beef/lamb demand +200 Mha Expansion of cropland Sources: Searchinger et al. (2018), Elias and Boucher (2014), Seto et al. (2012), WWF (2012). Projections are “business as usual” and range from 2000-2030 to 2010-2060 image credit: Sam Beebe, Ecotrust +250 Mha? Expansion of timber plantations FOOD-LAND NEXUS: INCREASING COMPETITION FOR LAND
  • 11. 70% 30% Water Withdrawals Agriculture Other FOOD-WATER NEXUS Much of the world’s cropland is water stressed All 28% of cropland in highly water stressed areas Irrigated 56% of irrigated land in highly water stressed areas
  • 12. Source: WRI analysis based on UNEP (2012), FAO (2012e), EIA (2012), IEA (2012), and Houghton (2008) with adjustments. Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. * LULUCF = Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry. ** Includes emissions from on-farm energy consumption as well as from manufacturing of farm tractors, irrigation pumps, other machinery, and key inputs such as fertilizer. It excludes emissions from the transport of food. *** Excludes emissions from agricultural energy sources described above. FOOD-ENERGY NEXUS
  • 14. 6.0 3.3 6.8 14.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 14 TWh of electricity is enough to power Sri Lanka for an entire year Sources: WRI Analysis; CEA 2016; Platts 2016; CIA 2014 WATER-ENERGY NEXUS Example: More than 30 TWh of electricity generation ($2.8 billion in revenue) was lost in India due to power plant shutdowns caused by water shortages (2013-2016)
  • 15. Source: The Global Risks 2015 Report. World Economic Forum. 2015. Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2018.
  • 19. A MENU OF SOLUTIONS COULD CLOSE ALL 3 GAPS
  • 20. July, 2019 Craig Hanson (Vice President of Food, Forests, Water, & the Ocean at the World Resources Institute) SUSTAINABILITY OF RESOURCES AND CONFLICT PREVENTION THROUGH THE NEXUS APPROACH Photo: Espen Faugstad
  • 22. Source: World Energy Outlook 2018 More than 90% of today’s global power generation depends on water All hydro power plants depend on water for generating electricity 2017 nited States pean Union developing economies India China d economies Japan 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2017 Coal Gas Nuclear Oil Wind Hydro Other Solar PV Electricity generation Most coal, gas, oil, and nuclear plants depend on water for cooling Some other types of thermal plants, like concentrated solar and biomass, also depend on water for cooling Global electricity generation share by fuel
  • 23. Types of water-related shutdowns United States France India Balkans Romania Kenya Brazil Thermal plants No cooling water available due to water shortages No discharge allowed due to high temperatures Hydro plants Low water levels in reservoirs Note: the table is not all inclusive, but includes examples in countries that are representative in terms of development status and geography in the recent years. Power plants around the globe are experiencing disruptions caused by water constraints
  • 24. AQUEDUCT FOOD LANDING PAGE: GLOBAL CROP LAYER
  • 25. AREA WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA
  • 26. DROUGHT RISK WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA
  • 27. DROUGHT RISK WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA AND % OF POPULATION AT RISK OF HUNGER

Editor's Notes

  1. Show the breakout of global land use in 2010: about 2/3 of agricultural land is pasture and 1/3 is cropland. And of that cropland, about 1/3 is used for animal feed. Most of the rest is forest/savanna or desert/ice. Crop demand will increase by 56% between 2010-2050. Demand for land-intensive foods will increase even more quickly (total meat/dairy increase by 68%, ruminant meat by 88%) during that time. Even factoring in ongoing improvements in agricultural productivity (at historical rates – not an easy feat!), agricultural land is still likely to expand by ~600 Mha from 2010-2050 (~200 Mha of cropland expansion, ~400 Mha of pasture expansion) Nearly all of that expansion will be in developing countries where the bulk of the growth in food demand will be (and where yields are low); there will likely be some contraction of ag land at higher latitudes
  2. Context for why we’re bringing agriculture and food information into our Aqueduct water risk platform: First, because agriculture as a sector is the single largest withdrawer of the world’s freshwater.
  3. http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2018/global-risks-landscape-2018/#landscape