CALSTART Van Amburg Mobility 2030 8 18 09 Final

Emerging Vehicle and Fuel Technologies For Clean, Efficient Transportation Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President Mobility 2030 – San Francisco, CA August 18, 2009

Mission Statement CALSTART is a unique national, non-profit, member-supported organization dedicated to the growth of an advanced transportation technologies industry that will: Create high-quality jobs; Clean the air; Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and Prevent global warming

CALSTART: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation National and International in Project Areas 2009 130+ Worldwide Member Network 4 Offices in US Four focus areas: Tech Commercialization Fleet, Port Consulting Industry Services Policy Development

CALSTART Has 130+ Member/ Participants ( partial list )

Find Combination Strategies Air Quality Climate Change Energy Security We must find solutions that address all three competing needs Integrated Solutions Needed There is no one “Silver Bullet” solution

Agenda Trends & Drivers of Change in Transportation The Fuel, Emissions and Climate Challenge – and Opportunity Some Observations Based on Where Change is Heading Summary

2030: We Can’t Get There in Vehicles 2030 requires more than JUST more- efficient cars & trucks and lower carbon fuels 2030 requires cleaner, more efficient transportation design and systems – mobility for people, efficient transport for goods 2030 is the half way point of 40 years of significant tech, fuel and transportation design change needed to save the planet California Secure Transportation Energy Partnership (CalSTEP) Action Plan

Sources of GHG Transportation is biggest GHG source in CA, but it is also one third of all US emissions

Magnitude of California’s Challenge to 2020 and Beyond 80% Reduction ~ 341 MMT CO2e 15% above 1990 levels today 1990 Emission Baseline ~173 MMT CO 2 e Reduction 80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO 2 e

International Energy Agency: 6 New Saudis Needed by 2030

EPA’s Light Duty GHG Standard Average of 250 g CO2/mile by 2016 Standards have same endpoint as CA Pavley standards. 5% annual rate of improvement Still higher than limits in many other developed countries.

Reductions Beyond Pavley Needed in Ground Transportation Pavley bill (AB 1493 in 2002) helps reduce rate of growth

Possible Drivers of Truck Fuel Efficiency: Carbon Cutting carbon means reducing fuel burn and using lower carbon fuels. This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve if it had to tackle carbon reduction alone. Today 2020 2030 2040 2050 Discussion estimates only Need fuels and efficiency combined

Observation: Need Combination Strategies High efficiency vehicles combined with low carbon fuels – eventually this combination becomes the norm Hybrid/biofuel vehicles Plug-in hybrid/biofuel Diesel/high efficiency engine/hybrid/biofuel Extended range EV/biofuel

The Nation’s Most Advanced Biofuel Hybrid Vehicle Florida Power & Light (FP&L) fuels this hybrid electric truck on B30 (30% biodiesel) resulting in approximately 70% less oil used compared to conventional truck Biofuels + Hybrids = Real Synergy (hybrid technology will maximize use of biofuels which will be limited by amount of acreage)

Significant Growth in Hybrid Trucks Every major truck and bus manufacturer in North America is now selling one or more hybrid products Hydraulic hybrid and hybrid electric technology gaining strength 36 Trucks Took Part in HTUF Conference Ride and Drive – South Bend, IN October 2008

Wal-Mart Class 8 Demo ArvinMeritor – Navistar deliver unique dual-mode hybrid design for testing Electric drive at lower speeds (up to 48 mph), blended mode at higher speeds Can greatly reduce fuel use, cut idle and give zero emission at ports, urban driving Wal-Mart testing this truck and several Peterbilt-Eaton trucks in line-haul and regional heavy haul applications Wal-Mart committed to doubling its fleet fuel efficiency by 2015

Freightliner Innovation Truck Advanced aerodynamics Predictive cruise control Light weight materials Variable chassis height Energy storage for overnight idle reduction Recent study shows technology available today to cut truck fuel consumption 50% (ICCT/NESCCAFF)

VW Shows Turbo/Super Charged CNG Concept Vehicle Touran TSI EcoFuel debuts at Geneva Motor Show Features dual charging via turbocharger and supercharger When paired with a standard 6-speed transmission, fuel consumption is 4.8 kilograms of natural gas per 100 kilometers CO2 is approximately 129g/km Meets Euro-5 standards Has four natural gas tanks and an auxiliary gasoline tank Range of 370 kms using natural gas fuel only, and a maximum range of 520 kms Photo: Media.Photobucket.com CALSTART NewsNotes, 03/03/09

Battery Electric Vehicles Re-Emerging as Real Option Mitsubishi IMiEV Nissan Leaf Daimler Electric Smart Chevy Volt E-REV Tesla Roadster Electric Mini Chrysler “Peapod” & Others?

Smith Building More Electric Trucks in US; Modec Teaming with Navistar Smith Electric Vehicles launches new production facility in US in Kansas City region Unveils US version of the Newton, which has a top speed of 50, range of over 100 miles and a payload capacity of up to 16,280 lbs Unveils first all-electric utility bucket truck based on Newton at in partnership with Altec, PG&E Will also build electric Ford Transit Connect vehicle in Kansas City Modec and Navistar win grant from DOE to build electric delivery trucks in US

Toyota vs. GM vs. Ford: Working on Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Toyota Motor Company is testing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, first Japanese automaker to research and road test the technology General Motors has taken the lead in developing rechargeable vehicles – “Volt” pre-production car unveiled Sept 08; possible for 2010 GM may have Saturn Vue PHEV by late 2009 Ford in PHEV testing partnership with Southern California Edison Ford continues to study a PHEV concept “Extend,” seeks trademark Ford PHEV Escape

The Fuel Landscape is Changing Broader look at full impacts on well-to-wheels basis underway, including indirect, food competition and land use impacts Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, UC Berkeley

Graphical Depiction of Indirect Emissions Source: Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley

Where Are Biofuels Headed? Still very much an active debate Today’s biofuels are stepping stones to next generation fuels and feedstocks – we believe you must start somewhere to make progress! Biofuels in future that do not compete with food and wilderness for fertile land can avoid indirect GHG emissions (Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley Energy & Resources Group) Wastes and residues, agriculture seasonal mix, wastelands crops – more R&D

Low Carbon Fuel Standards Are Emerging Source: 3/5/09 CARB Draft LCFS Rule

Observation: Closer Link Between Fuel and Region/Person More Grid Connection Smart timing, pricing systems Vehicles contribute to system Waste-stream fuels MSW, food/ag production, waste water Local fuel production Waste Syngas or Biogas Biomethane Alcohol fuels Electricity production Standard fuels Hydrogen

Power Grid Changing “ Smart Grid” Integrating Distributed Generation Increasing generation from renewables 1

Vehicle to Grid- Integration of Transportation and Power Grid Arrows indicate direction of power flow (Kempton &Tomic, JPS, 2005) 2

Green-Gas Principle – Can Make “Natural Gas” Even Greener Biogas Natural gas Residential housing Industries Filling stations Swedish officials believe biomethane can meet 20% of future transportation needs

First Trucks to Run on Biomethane In California In 2009 Hilarides Dairy powers trucks on renewable biomethane from dairy operation Has potential to generate 650 diesel gallon equivalents (DGEs) from farm CALSTART is preparing a federal stimulus and AB 118 proposal to jump-start the CA biomethane industry CBG Truck In Tulare Tulare Covered Lagoon Producing biogas

Observation: Transportation Management Systems Needed, Will Grow Hardware and Software for consumer-level system maintenance, control Timing, routing, pricing of optimal choices for given need Consumers provided with choices based on “best” choices Cost/emissions, congestion (infrastructure availability) Personal car one of choices but not only

Vehicles & Electric Grid Two large sectors that can be integrated Smart interaction between vehicle fleet, grid and intermittent renewable Large, low-cost storage for renewables Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) power as bridging technology 7

V2G Provides New Source of Distributed Generation 50% of cars as EDVs increase electric load ? 100 Million cars x 15,000 Miles per year / 4.8 Miles per kWh = 312 Billion kWh per year at off-peak times = 7 % of 2020 total national load With V2G, these EDVs also provide a huge power resource: 100 M cars x 15 kW x 0.5 avail. = 750 GW of DG > 70% of 2020 national electric power capacity! Conclusion: Even 50% of cars as EDV, IF they have V2G, probably REDUCE grid infrastructure requirements 6

Observation: Vehicle Ownership Models Likely to Change Will we remain wedded to the vehicle itself – or to the “service” provided by the vehicle? Cost of fuel, vehicle, insurance may change the relationship of people to vehicles Vehicles may be offered as part of service agreement rather than simple sales Option: own vehicle, lease energy as service (battery lease) Option: vehicle provided as part of energy agreement (cell phone and solar panel model) Option: vehicle 1 or 2 part of shared asset or service agreement (car sharing or custom rental)

Observation: Cities Likely to Change to Drive More Efficient Transportation SB 375 in California and the AB 32 goals leading to first reviews of urban planning for climate impacts Land use and urban design the 800 pound gorilla (or one of them!) by 2030 Mode shifting, telecommuting, better transit, walking/biking options

Oil Demand in North America Began Declining Before Economic Downturn Price Signal Drives Behavior – CA Saw Similar Response During Electricity Crisis in 2000-2001 Peak in Oil Prices

Price Signals: Possibly Strongest Driver of Fuel Efficiency, LC Fuels 2008 2020 2030 2040 2050 Maintaining cost/mile for fuel means increasing efficiency or using lower cost fuels or blends. This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve to maintain steady fuel cost/mile. Discussion estimates only

Plan Beyond the Roller Coaster Fuel prices are increasing over time and it is unlikely we will “go back” $2.70

Primary Actions FUEL DIVERSITY: Alternative Fuels Portfolio Standard 10 percent by 2012 and at least 20 percent by 2020 Codifies Governor’s stated goal; Parallel AB 32 strategy EFFICIENT VEHICLES: ‘ Energy Security Tax Relief and Realignment’ A ‘Foreign Oil Security’ price floor coupled w/tax relief for all Californians of driving age REDUCE NEED TO DRIVE: ‘ Smart Communities’ Program Upgrade transportation models New state transportation funding to local governments who reduce driving by 10% over ~25 years CalSTEP Recommendations

Summary: 2030 Observations No crystal ball: not completely clear which fuels and technologies will be absolute winners – but they will be driven by these trends: Greater Link Between Region/Consumer and Fuel: Local and Distributed Energy Combination Strategies: Efficiency & Fuel Key Expansion of Transportation Systems: Hardware and Software to Optimize Consumer Energy Use, Choices Change in Vehicle Ownership Models: Product vs Service Cities Change Planning/Land Use: Encouraging Transport Efficiency

Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM www.calstart.org For info contact: Bill Van Amburg (626) 744-5600 [email_address]

CALSTART Van Amburg Mobility 2030 8 18 09 Final

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CALSTART Van Amburg Mobility 2030 8 18 09 Final

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