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Customer Development and the  Business ModelJuly 16, 2011
Welcome to Customer DevelopmentSteve BlankStanford - School of EngineeringU.C. Berkeley - Haas School Of  Businesswww.steveblank.comTwitter: sgblank
I Write a Blog  www.steveblank.com
This Talk is Based OnBusiness Model GenerationFour Steps to the EpiphanyLean Startup
First -What’s A Startup?Five Types of Startups
Small BusinessStartupSmall Business StartupsServe known customer with known product
Feed the familySmall BusinessStartupExit Criteria Business Model found- Profitable business Existing team< $1M in revenueSmall Business Startupsknown customer known product
Feed the familySmall BusinessStartup- Business Model found- Profitable business Existing team< $10M in revenueSmall Business Startups5.7 million small businesses in the U.S. <500 employees
99.7% of all companies
~ 50% of total U.S. workershttp://www.sba.gov/advo/stats/sbfaq.pdf
Large Non-ProfitSocial StartupSocial Entrepreneurship StartupsSolve pressing social problems
Social Enterprise: Profitable
Social Innovation: New StratagiesLarge Company Sustaining InnovationSustaining InnovationTransitionScalableStartupLarge Company Existing Market / Known customer
Known product feature needsLarge Company Disruptive InnovationNew DivisionTransitionLarge CompanyDisruptive InnovationNew Market
New tech, customers, channelsLarge Company Disruptive InnovationNew DivisionTransitionLarge CompanyDisruptive InnovationBuild
Acquire      - IP- Talent      - Product      - Customers      - Business
ScalableStartupLarge CompanyScalable StartupSearchGoal is to solve for:  unknown customer and unknown features
ExecuteSearchScalableStartupLarge CompanyExit Criteria Business model found
 Total Available Market > $500m -$1B
 Can grow to $100m/yearScalable Startup
ScalableStartupLarge CompanyTotal Available Market > $500m
 Company can grow to $100m/year
 Business model found
 Focused on execution and process
 Typically requires “risk capital”Scalable StartupExecuteSearch In contrast a scalable startup is designed to grow big
 Typically needs risk capital
 What Silicon Valley means when they say “Startup”ScalableStartupLarge CompanyExit Criteria Business model found
 Total Available Market > $500m -$1B
 Can grow to $100m/yearScalable StartupExecuteSearch VC-backed scalable startups:
 13% of all public companies
 4% of total sales of all U.S. public companies ~$1 trillionSource: Josh Lerner, Harvard: VC and Innovation in Energey
Very Different Startup GoalsSmall BusinessStartup- Business Model found- Profitable business Existing team< $10MScalableStartupLarge Company Total Available Market > $500m
 Company can grow to $100m/year
 Business model found
 Focused on execution and process
 Typically requires “risk capital”Venture Firms Invest in Scalable StartupsSmall BusinessStartupScalableStartupLarge Company
Buyable StartupSearchSellScalableStartup$5 to 50M AcquisitionGoal is to solve for:  Internet and Mobile Apps
Buyable StartupSearchSellScalableStartup$5 to 50M AcquisitionGoal is to solve for:  Internet and Mobile AppsSell to larger company
ScalableStartupLarge CompanyBusiness Model found
 i.e. Product/Market fit- Repeatable sales model- Managers hiredWhat’s A Startup?Search ExecuteA Startup is a temporary organization used to search for a repeatable and scalable business model
Next,What’s A Founder?
What You and I Saw
What Michelangelo Saw
What You and I Saw
What Van Gogh Saw
Founders See Things Others Don’t
Founders See Things Others Don’tFounders are Artists.Actually They are Composers.They Create Something From Nothing
Founders See Things Others Don’tThey Build a Company By Convincing Others To See What They Do
Founders See Things Others Don’tThe Early Employees Who Join Them Are the Performers
I Have a Vision
I Know What Needs to Be Done
Lets Launch a New Product!
Five Ways Founders Fail
#1I Know Who The Customer Is
#2I Know Exactly the Product They Need
#3I Know the Problem They Have
#4We Can Fix It After We Ship It All
#5All I Need to Do is Execute the Plan
Product Introduction ModelConcept/Seed RoundProduct Dev.Alpha/Beta TestLaunch/1st Ship
Product Introduction ModelThe Leading Cause of Startup DeathConcept/Seed RoundProduct Dev.Alpha/Beta TestLaunch/1st Ship
Product Introduction Model:Two Implicit AssumptionsCustomer Problem: knownConcept/Seed RoundProduct Dev.Alpha/Beta TestLaunch/1st Ship	Product Features: known
Tradition – Hire MarketingConcept/Seed RoundProduct Dev.Alpha/Beta TestLaunch/1st Ship- Create Demand- Launch Event- “Branding”- Hire PR Agency- Early Buzz Create Marcom   Materials- Create PositioningMarketing
Tradition – Hire SalesConcept/Seed RoundProduct Dev.Alpha/Beta TestLaunch/1st Ship- Create Demand- Launch Event- “Branding”- Hire PR Agency- Early Buzz Create Marcom   Materials- Create PositioningMarketing Build Sales   Organization
 Hire Sales VP
 Hire 1st  Sales StaffSales
Tradition – Hire Bus DevelopmentConceptProduct Dev.Alpha/Beta TestLaunch/1st Ship- Create Demand- Launch Event- “Branding”- Hire PR Agency- Early Buzz Create Marcom   Materials- Create PositioningMarketing Build Sales Channel /   Distribution
 Hire Sales VP
 Pick distribution   ChannelSalesBusiness Development Hire First   Bus Dev
 Do deals for FCSTradition – Hire EngineeringConceptProduct Dev.Alpha/Beta TestLaunch/1st Ship- Create Demand- Launch Event- “Branding”- Hire PR Agency- Early Buzz Create Marcom   Materials- Create PositioningMarketing Build Sales Channel /   Distribution
 Hire Sales VP
 Pick distribution   ChannelSalesBusiness Development Hire First   Bus Dev
 Do deals for FCSEngineering Write MRD
 Waterfall
 Q/A
Tech PubsNo Business Plan survives first contact with customers
Startups Are Not Smaller Versions of Large Companies
Startups Are Not Smaller Versions of Large CompaniesLarge Companies Execute Known Business Models
Startups Are Not Smaller Versions of Large CompaniesStartups Search for Unknown Business Models
So Search for a Business Model
The Business Model:Any company can be described in 9 building blocks
CUSTOMER SEGMENTSwhich customers and users are you serving? which jobs do they really want to get done?
VALUE PROPOSITIONSwhat are you offering them? what is that getting done for them? do they care?
CHANNELShow does each customer segment want to be reached? through which interaction points?
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPSwhat relationships are you establishing with each segment? personal? automated? acquisitive? retentive?
REVENUE STREAMSwhat are customers really willing to pay for? how? are you generating transactional or recurring revenues?
KEY RESOURCESwhich resources underpin your business model? which assets are essential?
KEY ACTIVITIESwhich activities do you need to perform well in your business model? what is crucial?59
KEY PARTNERSwhich partners and suppliers leverage your model? who do you need to rely on?
COST STRUCTUREwhat is the resulting cost structure? which key elements drive your costs?
value propositioncustomer relationshipskey activitiescustomer segmentskey partnerscost structurerevenue streamskey resourceschannels62images by JAM
sketch out your business model
But,Realize They’re Hypotheses
9 GuessesGuessGuessGuessGuessGuessGuessGuessGuessGuess
How Do Startups Search For A Business Model? The Search isCustomer Development
 The Implementation isAgile Development
 The Sum is the Lean StartupCustomer DevelopmentThe founders^Get Out of the Building
Customer DevelopmentThe Search For the Business ModelCompanyBuildingCustomerDiscoveryCustomerValidationCustomer CreationPivot
Customer DiscoveryCustomerDiscoveryCustomerValidationCompanyBuildingCustomerCreationStop selling, start listeningTest your hypothesesContinuous DiscoveryDone by founders
Test Hypotheses:Product
 Market Type
 CompetitionTurning Hypotheses to Facts
Test Hypotheses:Problem
 Customer
 User
 PayerTest Hypotheses:ChannelTest Hypotheses:Demand CreationTest Hypotheses:Problem
 Customer
 User
 PayerTest Hypotheses:Product
 Market Type
 CompetitiveTest Hypotheses:Channel
 (Customer)
 (Problem)Test Hypotheses:ChannelTest Hypotheses:Pricing Model / PricingTest Hypotheses:Size of Opportunity/Market
 Validate Business ModelTest Hypotheses:Demand CreationTest Hypotheses:Problem
 Customer
 User
 PayerAgile DevelopmentTest Hypotheses:Product
 Market Type
 CompetitiveTest Hypotheses:Channel
 (Customer)
 (Problem)Customer Development TeamTest Hypotheses:ChannelTest Hypotheses:Pricing Model / PricingTest Hypotheses:Size of Opportunity/Market
 Validate Business Model
The Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Smallest feature set that gets you the most …orders, learning, feedback, failure…
MVP + Customer are the first two you need to nailTesting the MVPSmoke testing with landing pages using AdWordsIn-product split-testingPrototypes (particularly for hardware)Removing featuresContinued customer discovery and validationSurveysInterviews
Testing the MVP (Web Example)Can you get customers to pay for a product that doesn’t yet exist (or barely does)?Interview customers to make sure they have a matching core problemSet up web site landing page to test for conversionSee what offers are required to get customers to use the product (e.g. prizes, payment)Use problem definition as described by customers to identify key word list – plug into Google search traffic estimator  - high traffic means there is problem awarenessDrive traffic to site using Google search and see how deep into a registration process customers are willing to go through
Testing the MVP (Non-Web)Can you get customers to pay for a product that doesn’t yet exist (or barely does)?Interview customers to make sure they have a matching core problemSet up web site landing page to test for conversionSet up a Lighthouse Customer Program where potential customers pay to get early access to product prototypes
The PivotThe heart of Customer Development
Iteration without crisis
Fast, agile and opportunisticHow Does This Really Work?Stanford Lean LaunchPad Class
How Does This Really Work?Stanford Lean LaunchPad Class8 Weeks From an Idea to a Business
Pivot ExampleRobotic WeedingTalked 75 Customers in 8 Weeks
Our initial planConfidential
20 interviews, 6 site visits…We got OUR Boots dirtyWeedingVisited two farms in Salinas Valley to better understand problemInterviewed:Bolthouse Farms, Large Agri-Industry in Bakersfield
White Farms, Large Peanut farmer in Georgia
REFCO Farms, large grower in Salinas Valley
Rincon Farms, large grower in Salinas Valley
Small Organic Corn/Soy grower in Nebraska
Heirloom Organics, small owner/operator, Santa Cruz Mts
Two small organic farmers at farmers market
Ag Services of Salinas, Fertilizer applicatorMowingInterviewed:Golf: Stanford Golf course
Parks: Stanford Grounds Supervisor, head of maintenance and lead operator (has crew of 6)
Toro dealer (large mower manufacturer)
User of back-yard mowing system
Maintenance Services for City of Los Altos
Colony Landscaping (Mowing service for stadiums)Confidential
Business Plan Autonomous Vehicles for Mowing & WeedingDealers sell, installs and supports customerCo. trains dealers, supports dealers- Innovation- Customer Education- Dealer trainingMowing- Owners of  public or commercially used green  spaces (e.g. golf courses)- Landscaping service providerWeeding- Farmers with manual weeding operationsWe reduce operating cost- Labor reduction- Better utilization of assets (eg mow or weed at nights)- Improved performance (less rework, food safety)- Dealers (Mowing and Ag)- Vehicle OEMs (John Deere, Toro, Jacobsen, etc)- Research labs- Mowing Dealers- Ag DealersEngineers on Autonomous vehicles, GPS, path-planningDealer discount COGS seek a 50-60% Gross MarginHeavy R&D investment Asset saleOur revenue stream derives from selling the equipment
Autonomous vehiclesWEEDINGDealers sell, installs and supports customerCo. trains dealers, supports dealers- Innovation- Customer Education- Dealer training- Low density vegetable growers- High density vegetable growers- Thinning operations- Conventional vegetablesWe reduce operating cost- Labor reduction (100 to 1)- Reduced risk of contamination- Mitigate labor availability concerns- Ag Dealers- Ag Service providers- Research labs- Ag Dealers- Ag Service providersEngineers on Machine VisionTwo problems:- Identification- EliminationDealer discount COGS seek a 50-60% Gross MarginHeavy R&D investment Asset saleOur revenue stream derives from selling the equipment
1 Week – 1 CarrotBotConfidential
The Business Plan Canvas UpdatedTechnology Design
Marketing
Demo and customer feedback
Farming conventions.
Demo, demo, and demo!!
Proximity is paramount
Organic Farmers
Weeding Service Providers
Conventional Farmers
Cost Reduction
Remove labor force pains
Eliminate bio-waste hazards
Research Labs
Equipment Manufacturers
Distribution Network
Service Providers
IP – Patents
Video Classifier Files
Robust Technology
Dealers
Direct Service
Indirect Service
 … then Dealers
Asset Sale
Direct Service with equipment rental
… then Asset SaleValue-Driven
The Business Plan Canvas UpdatedTechnology Design
Marketing
Demo and customer feedback
Farming conventions.
Demo, demo, and demo!!
Proximity is paramount
Mid/Large Organic Farmers
Agricultural corporations
Weeding Service Providers
Mid/Large Conventional Farmers
Cost Reduction
Remove labor force pains
Eliminate bio-waste hazards
Research Labs
Equipment Manufacturers
Distribution Network
Service Providers
IP – Patents
Video Classifier Files
Robust Technology
Direct Service
Indirect Service
 … then Dealers
Direct Service with equipment rental
($1,500/d; 120d/yr )
Low density: $1,500/d
High density: $6,000/dValue-Driven
World Ag Expo interviews:the need is real and wide spread10+ interviews at showEveryone confirmed the needRobocrop, UK based, crude competitor sells for $171 KRevenue StreamMid to small growers prefer a serviceLarge growers prefer to buy, but OK with service until technology is provenCharging for labor cost saved is OK, as we provide other benefits (food safety, labor availability)Confidential
The Business Plan Canvas UpdatedTechnology Design
Marketing
Demo and customer feedback
Farming conventions.
Demo, demo, and demo!!
Proximity is paramount
Mid/Large Organic Farmers
Agricultural corporations
Weeding Service Providers
Mid/Large Conventional Farmers

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