This document discusses customer development and business models for startups. It defines different types of startups, including small businesses, social startups, sustaining/disruptive innovation within large companies, and scalable startups. The key aspects of a business model are defined using the business model canvas framework. Customer development is presented as the process startups use to search for an unknown business model, involving customer discovery, validation, and pivoting if needed based on feedback. The minimum viable product and agile development are discussed as ways to test hypotheses. An example pivot from a robotic weeding startup is provided.
7. Feed the familySmall BusinessStartupExit Criteria Business Model found- Profitable business Existing team< $1M in revenueSmall Business Startupsknown customer known product
8. Feed the familySmall BusinessStartup- Business Model found- Profitable business Existing team< $10M in revenueSmall Business Startups5.7 million small businesses in the U.S. <500 employees
13. Social Innovation: New StratagiesLarge Company Sustaining InnovationSustaining InnovationTransitionScalableStartupLarge Company Existing Market / Known customer
14. Known product feature needsLarge Company Disruptive InnovationNew DivisionTransitionLarge CompanyDisruptive InnovationNew Market
15. New tech, customers, channelsLarge Company Disruptive InnovationNew DivisionTransitionLarge CompanyDisruptive InnovationBuild
31. 4% of total sales of all U.S. public companies ~$1 trillionSource: Josh Lerner, Harvard: VC and Innovation in Energey
32. Very Different Startup GoalsSmall BusinessStartup- Business Model found- Profitable business Existing team< $10MScalableStartupLarge Company Total Available Market > $500m
40. i.e. Product/Market fit- Repeatable sales model- Managers hiredWhat’s A Startup?Search ExecuteA Startup is a temporary organization used to search for a repeatable and scalable business model
122. The Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Smallest feature set that gets you the most …orders, learning, feedback, failure…
123. MVP + Customer are the first two you need to nailTesting the MVPSmoke testing with landing pages using AdWordsIn-product split-testingPrototypes (particularly for hardware)Removing featuresContinued customer discovery and validationSurveysInterviews
124. Testing the MVP (Web Example)Can you get customers to pay for a product that doesn’t yet exist (or barely does)?Interview customers to make sure they have a matching core problemSet up web site landing page to test for conversionSee what offers are required to get customers to use the product (e.g. prizes, payment)Use problem definition as described by customers to identify key word list – plug into Google search traffic estimator - high traffic means there is problem awarenessDrive traffic to site using Google search and see how deep into a registration process customers are willing to go through
125. Testing the MVP (Non-Web)Can you get customers to pay for a product that doesn’t yet exist (or barely does)?Interview customers to make sure they have a matching core problemSet up web site landing page to test for conversionSet up a Lighthouse Customer Program where potential customers pay to get early access to product prototypes
132. 20 interviews, 6 site visits…We got OUR Boots dirtyWeedingVisited two farms in Salinas Valley to better understand problemInterviewed:Bolthouse Farms, Large Agri-Industry in Bakersfield
145. Business Plan Autonomous Vehicles for Mowing & WeedingDealers sell, installs and supports customerCo. trains dealers, supports dealers- Innovation- Customer Education- Dealer trainingMowing- Owners of public or commercially used green spaces (e.g. golf courses)- Landscaping service providerWeeding- Farmers with manual weeding operationsWe reduce operating cost- Labor reduction- Better utilization of assets (eg mow or weed at nights)- Improved performance (less rework, food safety)- Dealers (Mowing and Ag)- Vehicle OEMs (John Deere, Toro, Jacobsen, etc)- Research labs- Mowing Dealers- Ag DealersEngineers on Autonomous vehicles, GPS, path-planningDealer discount COGS seek a 50-60% Gross MarginHeavy R&D investment Asset saleOur revenue stream derives from selling the equipment
146. Autonomous vehiclesWEEDINGDealers sell, installs and supports customerCo. trains dealers, supports dealers- Innovation- Customer Education- Dealer training- Low density vegetable growers- High density vegetable growers- Thinning operations- Conventional vegetablesWe reduce operating cost- Labor reduction (100 to 1)- Reduced risk of contamination- Mitigate labor availability concerns- Ag Dealers- Ag Service providers- Research labs- Ag Dealers- Ag Service providersEngineers on Machine VisionTwo problems:- Identification- EliminationDealer discount COGS seek a 50-60% Gross MarginHeavy R&D investment Asset saleOur revenue stream derives from selling the equipment
201. World Ag Expo interviews:the need is real and wide spread10+ interviews at showEveryone confirmed the needRobocrop, UK based, crude competitor sells for $171 KRevenue StreamMid to small growers prefer a serviceLarge growers prefer to buy, but OK with service until technology is provenCharging for labor cost saved is OK, as we provide other benefits (food safety, labor availability)Confidential
231. SalesAutonomous weeding - FinalDirect- Provide high quality service at competitive price- Innovation- Customer Education- Dealer training- Low density vegetable growers- High density vegetable growers- Thinning operations- Conventional vegetablesWe reduce operating cost- Labor reduction (100 to 1)- Reduced risk of contamination- Mitigate labor availability concerns- Ag Service providers- Research Institutes (eg UC Davis, Laser Zentrum Hannover)- 3-4 key farmsDirect - Alliance with service providers- Eventually sell through dealersEngineers on Machine VisionTwo problems:- Identification- EliminationCosts for service provisionCOGS seek a 50-60% Gross MarginHeavy R&D investment Service provision- Charge by the acre with modifier according to weed density - Eventually move to asset sale
235. Original Idea: Personal Digital LibrariesImport, organize and share thousands of digital papers
236. something-something-something.comOriginal ideaInvincible Business Model: Version 1.0SHORT TERMResearchersLawyersScientists LONG TERMAvid book readersProfessionals FB/TW posts from users you knowCompany blog, FB, TW, support forumsImport, organize and share thousands of papersTargeted marketingProduct developmentConstant iteration & testingLibraries, Universities, Research CentersBloggers and media targeting customer segmentAcademic Database providersAffiliate programSEO/SEM/SMIE/FF/Chrome App StoresDevelopersMarketersAffiliate program feesLicensingSubscription feesAd revenueAWS InfrastructureSEMEng & Marketing OpEx
277. Here's what we found: Version 1.0A great business if we had more users…GOODSubscriptions RockHere's what we found: Version 1.0Shorter pages raise conversions 80%GOODSubscriptions Rock
294. something-something-something.comOriginal ideaInvincible Business Model: Version 2.0Upwardly mobile young professionals making $2-10K of discretionary online purchases a year (excluding travel)FB/TW posts from users you knowCompany blog, FB, TW accountsDiscover online goods recommended by friends at the lowest possible price from trusted vendorsDeveloping trusted advice and advisorsWeb marketing Affiliate partnershipsConstant iteration & testingBloggers and Media targeting customer segmentRetail marketing partnersIE/FF/Chrome teamsAffiliate Program ProvidersAffiliate programSEO/SEM/SMIE/FF/Chrome App StoresDevelopersMarketersContent LibraryInstall baseReadership baseAffiliate program feesLicensingSubscription feesAd revenueAWS InfrastructureSEMEng & Marketing OpEx
327. Refined PersonasCustomer Segment: Professional-class consumers shopping frequently online Pat the ProfessionalUpwardly mobile professional (some Grad Students)Salary: $40,000 – 150,000/yearFinance, Consulting, PR, MarketingFollows fashion/technology trendsSpends $1-15K on discretionary items onlinePurchased online in last 30 daysDemographicsMale/female, aged 18-35
334. Fears being cheated onlineBehaviorSpends 5 hour+ monthly hearing about products
335. Shares online and in person about products he lovesBudget$2-10K+/year in discretionary online purchases“The XXX is awesome, I really want one. I know I just bought the YYY, but it’s probably time to upgrade.” ~5.9M “Pat the Professionals” in USDrawn from top 1/3 of 17.8M frequent online shoppers17.8M based on 40.2M Professionals (2008 Census) * 0.762 US Internet Penetration (Nielsen 2010Q1) * 0.58 consumers shopping online in last month (Nielsen 2010Q1) Online Recommendation Market Opportunity (conservative strawman #s)Assuming 10% share, 5% affiliate feesTop Shoppers (~$7B/year spend): ~ $35M/year Professional-class frequent shoppers (~$1.8B/year): ~ $9M/yearOther Professional-class shoppers ($0.7B/year): ~3.5M/year Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
337. something-something-something.comOriginal ideaInvincible Business Model: Version 2.0Upwardly mobile young professionals making $2-10K of discretionary online purchases a year (excluding travel)FB/TW posts from users you knowCompany blog, FB, TW accountsDiscover online goods recommended by friends at the lowest possible price from trusted vendorsDeveloping trusted advice and advisorsWeb marketing Affiliate partnershipsConstant iteration & testingBloggers and Media targeting customer segmentRetail marketing partnersIE/FF/Chrome teamsAffiliate Program ProvidersAffiliate programSEO/SEM/SMIE/FF/Chrome App StoresDevelopersMarketersContent LibraryInstall baseReadership baseAffiliate program feesLicensingSubscription feesAd revenueAWS InfrastructureSEMEng & Marketing OpEx
347. Needs Addressed Super easy to install and use.I really did enjoy it! Great idea! I will keep the extension installed because I do think this is practical!I could see myself using this regularly
348. Findings on "Trusted Advice"Some negative results on “Trusted Advice” Shopping Add-in testingGOODFast Interest
353. Needs Addressed BADMissing FeaturesI was a little frustrated when it didn’t find the item I was looking forI can find more thorough price comparisons elsewhere…I usually don’t shop in Chrome, so that’s an inconvenience.
354. Findings on "Trusted Advice"MBA Exchange spams us out of GoogleGOODFast Interest
359. Trusted Advice website powered by Shopping Add-insomething-something-something.comOriginal ideaInvincible Business Model: Version 3.0PAT THE PROFESSIONALUpwardly mobile young professionals making $2-10K of discretionary online purchases a year (excluding travel)FB/TW posts from users you knowCompany blog, FB, TW accountsTRUSTED ADVICE Discover online goods recommended by friends at the lowest possible price from trusted vendorsFoil advertorial spammers polluting the Interweb with toxic pseudo-contentDeveloping trusted advice and advisorsWeb marketing Affiliate partnershipsConstant iteration & testingBloggers and Media targeting customer segmentRetail marketing partnersIE/FF/Chrome teamsAffiliate Program ProvidersAffiliate programSEO/SEM/SMIE/FF/Chrome App StoresDevelopersMarketersContent LibraryInstall baseReadership baseAffiliate program feesLicensingSubscription feesAd revenueAWS InfrastructureSEMEng & Marketing OpEx
385. Product Introduction ConundrumProduct introductions aren’t predictableWhy?Is it the people that are different?Is it the product that are different?Are there different “types” of startups?
386. Three Markets TypesMarket Type changes everythingSales, marketing and business development differ radically by market type
388. AdoptionMarketMarket SizeCost of EntryLaunch TypeCompetitive BarriersPositioningSalesSales ModelMarginsSales CycleChasm WidthFinance Ongoing Capital
389. Time to ProfitabilityThree Types of MarketsExisting MarketFaster/Better = High endResegmented MarketNiche = marketing/branding drivenCheaper = low endNew MarketCheaper/good enough = creates a new class of product/customerInnovative/never existed before
393. Market/Opportunity AnalysisHow Big is It?: Market/Opportunity AnalysisIdentify a Customer and Market NeedSize the MarketCompetitorsGrowth Potential
394. How Big is the Pie?Total Available MarketTotal Available MarketHow manypeople would want/needthe product?
395. How large is the market be (in $’s) if they all bought?
396. How many units would that be?How Do I Find Out?Industry Analysts – Gartner, Forrester
397. Wall Street Analysts – Goldman, MorganHow Big is My Slice?Served Available MarketHow many people need/can use product?
413. Market Size: SummaryMarket Size Questions:How big can this market be? How much of it can we get?Market growth rateMarket structure (Mature or in flux?)Most important: Talk to Customers and Sales ChannelNext important: Market size by competitive approximationWall Street analyst reports are greatAnd : Market research firms Like Forester, Gartner
416. Corporate? Consumer?Business to Business (B to B)Use or buy inside a companyBusiness to Consumer (B to C)Use or buy for themselvesBusiness to Business to Consumer (B to B to C)Sell a business to get to a consumerOther Multi-sided Markets with multiple customers
425. What do they want you to do?Does it entertain them?Does it connect them with others?Does it make their lives easier?Does it satisfy a basic need?How important is it?Can they afford it?
426. Market Type & Ignoring CustomersExisting Market? Resegmenting an Existing Market?niche or low costNew Market?When do I ignore customer feedback?
427. Consumer CustomersDo they buy it by themselves?Do they need approval of others?Do they use it alone or with others?
428. How Do They Decide to Buy?Demand CreationViral?SEO/SEMNetwork effect?AARRR (Dave McClure)
429. Pass/Fail Signals & ExperimentsHow do you test interest?Where do you test interest?What kind of experiments can you run?How many do you test?
430. The Consumer Sales ChannelA product that’s bits can use the webBut getting a physical consumer product into retail distribution is hardIs Wal-Mart a customer?More next week
433. Multiple Customer SegmentsEach has its own Value PropositionEach has its own Revenue StreamOne segment cannot exist without the otherWhich one do you start with?