Compexity and Climate: Crash in the World's Food Supply

MIT Prof. Jay Forrester’s System Dynamics
PAUL H. CARR, MIT ’57
IEEE Life Fellow
www.MirrorOfNature.org
Complexity and Climate:
Crash in the World’s Food Supply

MIT Prof. Jay W. Forrester (1918 -2016)
Computer Pioneer and
Founder of Complex System Dynamics,
author of Urban Dynamics & World Dynamics
In my conversation with him during the coffee hour at the
Episcopal Church, Concord, MA, he suggested this web page:

A TRIBUTE TO JAY FORRESTER (1918 TO 2016)
by Ralph Brower.
“It was for a revolution I came to Concord, not the
American Revolution that started with the Battle of
Concord Bridge in April 19, 1775, but one led by a
tall, lanky, white-haired former Nebraska prairie
dweller named Jay Forrester. This revolution bears
the title of system dynamics, words that promise to
be as world shaking as the other ones that rocked
Concord. They herald a change of perspective as
radical as Emerson’s transcendentalism. Tall and
rangy and looking as though he could still pitch a few
bales of Nebraska hay, the founder of the movement
was someone whose mind worked on a different
level.”

“For all his sheer intellectual power,
Forrester had the approachable
manner of someone who grew up on
the margins of rural America.
He was the only major
thinker/founder of a discipline, who
sat in on papers delivered by high
school teachers and then had lunch
with them afterwards.”

•Simplistic "solutions" to complex
problems are wrong (apt to fall into one of
several traps set by the character of
complex systems.)
• Conflicts arise between short-term and
long-term goals.
Prof Jay Forrester’s Principles of
System Dynamics

Compexity and Climate: Crash in the World's Food Supply

My conversation with Dennis
Meadows, Ph. D. MIT,
Second Author,
Limits to Growth(1972)
2012 Creative Learning Exchange
Conference
mainly for Jr. & High School teachers.
Babson Executive Conference Center
Wellesley, MA
July 1, 2012

1.“Limits …”published in 1972.
*Has sold 10 million copies
*Predictions based on five major
nonlinear feedback loops
*In 2012, predictions were shown
to be accurate & updated:
-Meadows now predicts food
production will crash in 2030
-Randers crash after 2052
2. 2011 UN IPCC Report predicts
droughts & weather extremes will
increase: threatening our food supply.
3. My June 2017 conference
The Wicked Problem of Climate Change:
What Is it doing to us and for us?

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#ixzz1rG5D2BHa
LOOKING BACK ON THE LIMITS TO GROWTH (1972)
World’s food production predicted to crash in 2030.
Egypt whose population has quadrupled since 1950 is the world’s largest grain importer.

“Social systems belong to the class called multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems.”
MIT Prof. Jay Forrester, World Dynamics
Population

• Geologist M. King Hubbert predicted the 1970
peak in US oil production during 1956.
• A 2nd peak is forecast for 2020.
OIL RESOURCE DEPLETION

• FOSSIL FUELS WILL NOT MEET THE ENEGY DEMAND
• NEED NEW WIND, SOLAR, AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

• Phosphorus fertilizer production is declining.
• Large scale agriculture will not support the increasing
population. NO SUBSTITUE FOR PHOSPHORUS

Absorbed CO2 increases acidity, reduces the calcification rate and
nature’s ability to sequester carbon.
INCREASING ACIDIFICATION THREATENS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN

THE “WICKED PROBLEM” OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
WHAT IS IT DOING TO US AND FOR US?
63nd Conference of the Institute on Religion in an Age
of Science, www.iras.org
June 24—July 1, 2017. Star Island off Portsmouth, NH.
• Climate change is complex with causes and consequences in
economic, ecological, ethical, and technological realms.
• How can global warming be a catalyst for spiritual and
societal transformation?

Solomon H. Katz, Ph.D is a leading expert
on the anthropology of food, U of Penn.
He was editor-in-chief of the Encyclopedia
of Food and Culture published by Scribner
(2003). Prof Katz was Chair of the AAA Task
Force on World Food Problems.
Barry Costa-Pierce, Ph.D, Chair of the
Department of Marine Sciences, University
of New England. Biddeford, Maine. Pioneer
of the field of “Ecological Aquaculture” and
helped develop the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization’s global protocols.
Can World Food Production Keep up with
Population Growth in the Face of Climate
Change & Sea Acidification?

Science Is the art of the provable.
(empirical verification, fact-check)
Religion is the art of the poetic
(belief).
Politics is the art of the possible.
(What will people believe?)

Solar PVs on historic Star Island form the largest off-grid array in New England

Matthew Fox’s student wrote at major
portion of Pope Francis’ 200 Page
Encyclical
Laudato Si:
On Care for our Common Home.
Theologian Rev. Dr.
Matthew Fox.
Creation Spirituality: How the
Crisis of Climate Change
Challenges Our Species to a
New Evolutionary Awakening

Prophetic Pope Francis:
• MORAL IMPERATATIVE: Stop plundering
our planet for profit, the poor suffering
the most.
200 Page Encyclical
Laudato Si:
On Care for our
Common Home.
June 2015

Carol Wayne White, Professor of Philosophy
of Religion at Bucknell U. Humans are
interconnected, social, & value-laden with
the capacity for transformation
Scientists: Paul H. Carr, PhD;
Robert S. Pikart,PhD; Emily Austin,PhD &
Bill Shoemaker,PhD.
Chaplain. Rev. Dr. Mary E.
Westfall Senior Minister at
Community Church, UCC,
Durham, Univ of NH
Maintaining Hope, Acting for Justice

S Sunrise on Star Island , www.iras.org

Star Island 200 year-old Chapel

SUNSET OVER PORTSMOUTH, NH FROM STAR ISLAND
Learn more at www.iras.org

Physics Today, March 2012, pg. 31
NUMBER OF EVENTS WITH DAMAGE OVER $ 1 BILLION (NOAA)
2008: 9 2011: 14 Average since 1980: 3 to 4
• Since 1996 over $1 billion damage doubled
compared with the previous 15-year period.
Hurricane Katrina 2005: $146 B
Hurricane Irene 2011: $15B
Hurricane Sandy 2012: $50B

Social unrest correlates with food price increases.
http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodcrises.html
Russia Banned Grain Exports, Aug -Dec 2010, as Drought Cut Yields

The deserts in the US Southwest will expand into the central farm belt.
- Farmable land in under-populated Canada will increase. Net decrease in food predicted.
Farmland in under-populated Siberia will increase.
- Farmland in over-populated China will decrease.

A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years
by Jorgen Randers, Ph. D. MIT 1973, Norwegian Business School
3rd author of “Limits to Growth”
Agrees with Meadows:
We are on an OVERSHOOT & CRASH mode, but CRASH could come after 2052

It Is Too Late For Sustainable
Development
Dennis Meadows, Ph. D. MIT
Second Author, Limits to Growth
(1972)
Talk at Smithsonian Institution
Washington, DC; February 29, 2012
2012 Creative Learning Exchange Conference
mainly for Jr. & High School teachers.
Babson Executive Conference Center
Wellesley, MA
July 1, 2012

We are not in the blue of “stabilized world” or soft landing mode.
We are one the green “standard run” or OVERSHOOT an COLLAPSE mode

2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, by Jorgen Randers
Food production will continue to increase while unused bio-capacity will decrease.

2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years,
by Jorgen Randers (co-author of “Limits to Growth, 1972)
The main cause of future problems is the
excessively short-term predominant
political and economic model.
“We need a system of governance that takes a more
long-term view. It is unlikely that governments will
pass necessary regulation to force the markets to
allocate more money into climate friendly solutions,
and must not assume that markets will work for
the benefit of humankind”.

RESOURCE DEMAND AND POPULATION GROWTH
by Jorgen Randers (3rd author of “Limits to Growth, 1972)
1 B population in the developed world (US & Europe) and resource
demand will not increase. Enough food for those who can pay.
3 B population of China & BRISE (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa
and ten leading emerging economies) will increase demand for
resources to increase GDP.
3 B remaining population will remain poor and largely undeveloped.
World population growth will peak in 2045.
CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES
NEW TECHNOLOGY DEVEL0PMENTS

Reinventing Life on Shrinking
Earth
July 19-23, 2015
Hyatt-Regency Hotel
Cambridge, MA.

The 34th International Conference of the
System Dynamics Society, Delft,
Netherlands
July 17 – July 21, 2016
Black Swans and Black Lies: System
Dynamics in the Context of Randomness
and Political Power-play
System Dynamics has proven useful to analyze dynamically
complex economic, social, and environmental issues. It is an effective
methodology for designing robust systems and policies.
Dynamics modeling can be used to understand resilience against
shocks and to support implementation of policies, we address major
epistemological and teleological questions.

The 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
July 16 – July 20, 2017
60th Anniversary Celebration
It is thus fitting that we hold the 60th anniversary
conference in Cambridge, next to the MIT campus
where Jay Forrester developed the field. Today,
System Dynamics is used around the world, from K-
12 classrooms through doctoral programs, in
scholarly research across many disciplines, and in
applications from organizational change to climate
change, from medicine to management.

Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems
http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
Author of World Dynamics
• The intuitively obvious "solutions" to social problems are
apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of
complex systems.
• Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.
• Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated,
not the problem.
-The cause of the problem is within the system.
• Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.

COUNTERINTUITIVE BEHAVIOR OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
The human mind is not adapted to interpreting how social systems behave.
Social systems belong to the class called multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems.
In the long history of evolution it has not been necessary until very recent
historical times for people to understand complex feedback systems.
Evolutionary processes have not given us the mental ability to interpret properly
the dynamic behavior of those complex systems in which we are now imbedded.
Society becomes frustrated as repeated attacks on deficiencies in social
systems lead only to worse symptoms. Because dynamic behavior of social systems
is not understood, government programs often cause exactly the reverse of desired
results.
As another example, symptoms of excess population are beginning
to overshadow all countries. Symptoms appear as urban crowding and social
pressure. Rather than face the rising population problem squarely, governments
try to relieve the immediate pressures by more policemen, financial aid, busing to
suburban schools, and subsidized health facilities. As a consequence, increasing
population reduces the quality of life for everyone.

STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING
Richard Knowles’ Complexity Principle
The degree of disagreement
among social system members is
proportional to its complexity.

Compexity and Climate: Crash in the World's Food Supply

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Compexity and Climate: Crash in the World's Food Supply