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DWS17 - Smart Mobility seminar - Samuel ROPERT - IDATE Digiworld

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The document discusses the future of transportation, focusing on autonomous cars and smart mobility. It summarizes that over the next 15-16 years, car design will evolve significantly with electronics and autonomous capabilities, and fully autonomous cars may be possible within 15 years. However, mass adoption of autonomous vehicles still faces challenges related to safety, technology reliability, security, cost, infrastructure requirements, legal issues, and consumer acceptance.

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Future of (passenger) transportation Focus on autonomous cars Smart mobility 15-16 November 2017
A recent topic (1/2) Futuristic cars were flying cars !!
Emergence of the self-driving vehicle A recent topic (2/2) Last year Major tech partnerships, investment & acquisitions Source: CBInsights
50 years Car design evolution (1/2) Steady evolution •Similar shape •Similar size •4 wheels •4 doors •etc
Car design evolution (2/2) Only the steering wheel still exists (useless soon) •Massive use of electronics •Electric motorization •Electronics and mechanics are becoming more and more technologically split - You can download a app to transform your car into an autonomous car ! 15 years
Main drivers
Towards zero accident •94% of errors are driver based Safety (1/2) Source: McMinn Law Firm, based on the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey from the NHTSA, 2015
Technology integration has a strong effect on vehicle fatalities decrease •Cars are more and more secure •Integration takes time though Safety (2/2)
Urbanization rate (1/2) 30% 54% 66% 1950 2014 2050 World population living in urban city World population living in rural areas Almost 70% of world population will live in a city by 2050 Source: UNO
Huge impacts on environment •Platooning Reduced traffic jams •Better driving patterns - Reduced energy pollution Urbanization rate (2/2)
Equipment vendors (Tier1) are building some vehicles •Pilots with shuttles Servicization for OEM •Additional revenues •Better margins Service provider strategies •New competition ? Massive opportunities for the ecosystem 0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% Automotive & Truck Auto Parts Retail Insurance Transportation services Automotive EBITDA/Sales Core Non core
Main challenges
Real aversion for autonomous cars Cautious and even worried consumers Paradox •Safety concerns as a main threat Cultural challenges Source: Automation in Everyday Life, Pew center, October 2017
More expensive cars •CAPEX - Cost of surroundings detection technology •OPEX - Connected by design : Who will pay the connectivity bill ? New business model ? Need to build a costly infrastructure •V2X: Interaction with the environment - Infrastructure itself •highways •public infrastructure - Smart city based applications Main interrogation : who will pay ? Financial challenges
Connectivity reliability •Automotive is one the most active industry in 5G specifications •Specific association Reliability in all conditions •Bad weather •Specific situations: dealing with public works and emergency vehicles Security •Hackable cars •Same issues for connected cars Need to manage non-autonomous cars •Self-driving car adoption will be progressive Technical challenges Jeep-Cherokee security scandal in summer 2015 Source: Wired
Already an issue for trials… Full automated car on road timeline still undefined •Not a technological issue… •Vienna convention Legal challenges
We are currently here Mass adoption ? Still a long road Connected evolution timeline in Automotive
THANK YOU ! Smart mobility

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DWS17 - Smart Mobility seminar - Samuel ROPERT - IDATE Digiworld

  • 1. Future of (passenger) transportation Focus on autonomous cars Smart mobility 15-16 November 2017
  • 2. A recent topic (1/2) Futuristic cars were flying cars !!
  • 3. Emergence of the self-driving vehicle A recent topic (2/2) Last year Major tech partnerships, investment & acquisitions Source: CBInsights
  • 4. 50 years Car design evolution (1/2) Steady evolution •Similar shape •Similar size •4 wheels •4 doors •etc
  • 5. Car design evolution (2/2) Only the steering wheel still exists (useless soon) •Massive use of electronics •Electric motorization •Electronics and mechanics are becoming more and more technologically split - You can download a app to transform your car into an autonomous car ! 15 years
  • 7. Towards zero accident •94% of errors are driver based Safety (1/2) Source: McMinn Law Firm, based on the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey from the NHTSA, 2015
  • 8. Technology integration has a strong effect on vehicle fatalities decrease •Cars are more and more secure •Integration takes time though Safety (2/2)
  • 9. Urbanization rate (1/2) 30% 54% 66% 1950 2014 2050 World population living in urban city World population living in rural areas Almost 70% of world population will live in a city by 2050 Source: UNO
  • 10. Huge impacts on environment •Platooning Reduced traffic jams •Better driving patterns - Reduced energy pollution Urbanization rate (2/2)
  • 11. Equipment vendors (Tier1) are building some vehicles •Pilots with shuttles Servicization for OEM •Additional revenues •Better margins Service provider strategies •New competition ? Massive opportunities for the ecosystem 0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% Automotive & Truck Auto Parts Retail Insurance Transportation services Automotive EBITDA/Sales Core Non core
  • 13. Real aversion for autonomous cars Cautious and even worried consumers Paradox •Safety concerns as a main threat Cultural challenges Source: Automation in Everyday Life, Pew center, October 2017
  • 14. More expensive cars •CAPEX - Cost of surroundings detection technology •OPEX - Connected by design : Who will pay the connectivity bill ? New business model ? Need to build a costly infrastructure •V2X: Interaction with the environment - Infrastructure itself •highways •public infrastructure - Smart city based applications Main interrogation : who will pay ? Financial challenges
  • 15. Connectivity reliability •Automotive is one the most active industry in 5G specifications •Specific association Reliability in all conditions •Bad weather •Specific situations: dealing with public works and emergency vehicles Security •Hackable cars •Same issues for connected cars Need to manage non-autonomous cars •Self-driving car adoption will be progressive Technical challenges Jeep-Cherokee security scandal in summer 2015 Source: Wired
  • 16. Already an issue for trials… Full automated car on road timeline still undefined •Not a technological issue… •Vienna convention Legal challenges
  • 17. We are currently here Mass adoption ? Still a long road Connected evolution timeline in Automotive
  • 18. THANK YOU ! Smart mobility