The document discusses the future of transportation, focusing on autonomous cars and smart mobility. It summarizes that over the next 15-16 years, car design will evolve significantly with electronics and autonomous capabilities, and fully autonomous cars may be possible within 15 years. However, mass adoption of autonomous vehicles still faces challenges related to safety, technology reliability, security, cost, infrastructure requirements, legal issues, and consumer acceptance.
3. Emergence of the self-driving vehicle
A recent topic (2/2)
Last year
Major tech partnerships, investment & acquisitions
Source: CBInsights
4. 50 years
Car design evolution (1/2)
Steady evolution
•Similar shape
•Similar size
•4 wheels
•4 doors
•etc
5. Car design evolution (2/2)
Only the steering wheel still exists (useless soon)
•Massive use of electronics
•Electric motorization
•Electronics and mechanics are becoming more and more technologically split
- You can download a app to transform your car into an autonomous car !
15 years
7. Towards zero accident
•94% of errors are driver based
Safety (1/2)
Source: McMinn Law Firm, based on the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey from the NHTSA, 2015
8. Technology integration has a strong effect on vehicle fatalities decrease
•Cars are more and more secure
•Integration takes time though
Safety (2/2)
9. Urbanization rate (1/2)
30% 54% 66%
1950 2014 2050
World population living in urban city
World population living in rural areas
Almost 70% of world population will live in a city by 2050
Source: UNO
10. Huge impacts on environment
•Platooning
Reduced traffic jams
•Better driving patterns
- Reduced energy pollution
Urbanization rate (2/2)
11. Equipment vendors (Tier1) are
building some vehicles
•Pilots with shuttles
Servicization for OEM
•Additional revenues
•Better margins
Service provider strategies
•New competition ?
Massive opportunities for the ecosystem
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
Automotive &
Truck
Auto Parts Retail Insurance Transportation
services
Automotive EBITDA/Sales
Core Non core
13. Real aversion for
autonomous cars
Cautious and even worried
consumers
Paradox
•Safety concerns as a main threat
Cultural challenges
Source: Automation in Everyday Life, Pew center, October 2017
14. More expensive cars
•CAPEX
- Cost of surroundings detection technology
•OPEX
- Connected by design : Who will pay the
connectivity bill ?
New business model ?
Need to build a costly infrastructure
•V2X: Interaction with the environment
- Infrastructure itself
•highways
•public infrastructure
- Smart city based applications
Main interrogation : who will pay ?
Financial challenges
15. Connectivity reliability
•Automotive is one the most active industry in 5G specifications
•Specific association
Reliability in all conditions
•Bad weather
•Specific situations: dealing with public works and emergency vehicles
Security
•Hackable cars
•Same issues for connected cars
Need to manage non-autonomous cars
•Self-driving car adoption will be progressive
Technical challenges
Jeep-Cherokee security scandal in summer 2015
Source: Wired
16. Already an issue for trials…
Full automated car on road timeline
still undefined
•Not a technological issue…
•Vienna convention
Legal challenges
17. We are currently here
Mass adoption ? Still a long road
Connected evolution timeline in Automotive