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Emissions slowdown: Are we on the way to 2C?

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Glen Peters
Glen Peters

Global carbon dioxide emissions growth has been near zero for the past three years. This slowdown is due to declining emissions in China, the US, and EU as well as continued growth in India. In China, the slowdown is attributed to slower GDP growth, improved emissions intensity, and increased renewable energy. While progress has been made in solar and wind power, carbon capture and storage has seen little development. Current country pledges and policies still do not put the world on a pathway to limit global temperature increase to 2°C. Increased climate policy ambition and accelerated clean energy deployment is needed to stay below 2°C of warming.

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Emissions slowdown: Are we on the way to 2°C? Glen Peters (CICERO) CICERO Åpent Hus, 4/04/2017)
Emissions growth has been flat for the last three years, perhaps ending a long period of near continuous growth Estimates for 2014 and 2015 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Three years with near-zero growth!
Chinese emissions unexpectedly stopped growing, US and EU emissions continue declines, India continues growth Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Has China reached “peak CO2”?
Tracking Progress
Emissions slowdown: Are we on the way to 2C?
Focus on too many moving parts makes it difficult to attribute drivers of change We instead perform a nested analysis, slowly digging deeper where needed Source: Peters et al 2017 Nested structure of key indicators
Recent trends (China example)
Targets (which are interrelated) • Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 • Decrease emission intensity (CO2/GDP) by -60% to -65% below 2005 by 2030 • Increase non-fossil share of energy to 20% in 2030 Additional target • Increase forest stock 4.5 billion m3 by 2030 China’s emission pledge (NDC)
CO2 emissions growth (back) slowing in China due to: Slow GDP growth (green), renewed improvements in efficiency (purple) & renewable energy (orange) All data is smoothed with a 11 year window. Source: Peters et al 2017 Drivers of CO2 emissions growth (%)
CO2 emissions growth (back) slowing in China due to: Slow GDP growth (green), renewed improvements in efficiency (purple) & renewable energy (orange) All data is smoothed with a 11 year window. Source: Peters et al 2017 Drivers of CO2 emissions growth Emission pledge requires 3-4%/yr improvement in emission intensity
With mid-range GDP growth & if China follows the historic trend in emission intensity, then… …emissions will peak 2025-2030 (that is, intensity and peak pledge consistent) Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Emission pledge embeds more growth Grey region is where Chinese emissions needs to go if the world is to stay below 2°C Earlier peak if: • Faster declines in emission intensity • Slower GDP growth • Combination of both
Future global pathways
IPCC assessed about 1200 scenarios, and about 120 different 2°C scenarios! Emission pledges (NDCs) still a long way from a 2°C pathway… Light lines: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report assessed about 1200 scenarios using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) Dark lines: Detailed climate modelling was done on four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Increased ambition to stay below 2°C
IPCC assessed about 1200 scenarios, and about 120 different 2°C scenarios! Emission pledges (NDCs) still a long way from a 2°C pathway… Light lines: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report assessed about 1200 scenarios using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) Dark lines: Detailed climate modelling was done on four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Increased ambition to stay below 2°C Emission pledges (NDCs)
Despite concerns, progress on solar and wind deployment is consistent with scenarios Though, acceleration needed to keep pace with scenarios “Policy Start” is the year that globally uniform carbon policies start Source: Peters et al 2017; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database Good progress on solar and wind
Carbon Capture and Storage is used at scale in the scenarios. Today we have about 25MtCO2/yr CCS, 7.5MtCO2/yr which is verified, but we need >1000MtCO2/yr from 2030 “Policy Start” is the year that globally uniform carbon policies start Source: Peters et al 2017; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database Bad progress on Carbon Capture & Storage
The path to 2°C
• Recent slowdown in emissions growth good news – Gains not guaranteed, needs policy to lock it in • Role of China important – Stars aligning? Structural change, air pollution, renewables, … • Future progress: “It is always 5 minutes to midnight” – Need increased deployment of wind and solar – Need “big technologies” like CCS (or less fossil fuels) The path to 2°C
Peters_Glen cicero.oslo.no cicerosenterforklimaforskning glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no Glen Peters

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Emissions slowdown: Are we on the way to 2C?

  • 1. Emissions slowdown: Are we on the way to 2°C? Glen Peters (CICERO) CICERO Åpent Hus, 4/04/2017)
  • 2. Emissions growth has been flat for the last three years, perhaps ending a long period of near continuous growth Estimates for 2014 and 2015 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Three years with near-zero growth!
  • 3. Chinese emissions unexpectedly stopped growing, US and EU emissions continue declines, India continues growth Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Has China reached “peak CO2”?
  • 6. Focus on too many moving parts makes it difficult to attribute drivers of change We instead perform a nested analysis, slowly digging deeper where needed Source: Peters et al 2017 Nested structure of key indicators
  • 8. Targets (which are interrelated) • Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 • Decrease emission intensity (CO2/GDP) by -60% to -65% below 2005 by 2030 • Increase non-fossil share of energy to 20% in 2030 Additional target • Increase forest stock 4.5 billion m3 by 2030 China’s emission pledge (NDC)
  • 9. CO2 emissions growth (back) slowing in China due to: Slow GDP growth (green), renewed improvements in efficiency (purple) & renewable energy (orange) All data is smoothed with a 11 year window. Source: Peters et al 2017 Drivers of CO2 emissions growth (%)
  • 10. CO2 emissions growth (back) slowing in China due to: Slow GDP growth (green), renewed improvements in efficiency (purple) & renewable energy (orange) All data is smoothed with a 11 year window. Source: Peters et al 2017 Drivers of CO2 emissions growth Emission pledge requires 3-4%/yr improvement in emission intensity
  • 11. With mid-range GDP growth & if China follows the historic trend in emission intensity, then… …emissions will peak 2025-2030 (that is, intensity and peak pledge consistent) Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Emission pledge embeds more growth Grey region is where Chinese emissions needs to go if the world is to stay below 2°C Earlier peak if: • Faster declines in emission intensity • Slower GDP growth • Combination of both
  • 13. IPCC assessed about 1200 scenarios, and about 120 different 2°C scenarios! Emission pledges (NDCs) still a long way from a 2°C pathway… Light lines: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report assessed about 1200 scenarios using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) Dark lines: Detailed climate modelling was done on four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Increased ambition to stay below 2°C
  • 14. IPCC assessed about 1200 scenarios, and about 120 different 2°C scenarios! Emission pledges (NDCs) still a long way from a 2°C pathway… Light lines: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report assessed about 1200 scenarios using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) Dark lines: Detailed climate modelling was done on four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database; Global Carbon Budget 2016 Increased ambition to stay below 2°C Emission pledges (NDCs)
  • 15. Despite concerns, progress on solar and wind deployment is consistent with scenarios Though, acceleration needed to keep pace with scenarios “Policy Start” is the year that globally uniform carbon policies start Source: Peters et al 2017; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database Good progress on solar and wind
  • 16. Carbon Capture and Storage is used at scale in the scenarios. Today we have about 25MtCO2/yr CCS, 7.5MtCO2/yr which is verified, but we need >1000MtCO2/yr from 2030 “Policy Start” is the year that globally uniform carbon policies start Source: Peters et al 2017; IIASA AR5 Scenario Database Bad progress on Carbon Capture & Storage
  • 17. The path to 2°C
  • 18. • Recent slowdown in emissions growth good news – Gains not guaranteed, needs policy to lock it in • Role of China important – Stars aligning? Structural change, air pollution, renewables, … • Future progress: “It is always 5 minutes to midnight” – Need increased deployment of wind and solar – Need “big technologies” like CCS (or less fossil fuels) The path to 2°C

Editor's Notes

  1. Where is it going in the future? Need to know where it has gone in the past. The global picture is complex, because it is the sum of independent changes in individual countries