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Energy efficiency trends in the EU: Have we got off track?

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Diedert Debusscher
Diedert Debusscher

What has been the overall trend in final energy consumption and by sector in the EU since 2000? What are the main drivers of the energy consumption variation since 2000, and what has been the impact of energy savings? What are the trends in energy efficiency at the country level? These are the key questions that will guide you through this webinar analysing energy efficiency trends in the EU for the period 2000-2019. This presentation deck was used during the 9th webinar in the Odyssee-Mure on Energy Efficiency Academy on 25 June 2020. Recordings are available on https://www.youtube.com/user/LeonardoENERGY/videos?view=0&sort=dd&flow=grid The webinar is an approximately 45 min presentation, followed by a live Q&A session with the panellists.

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Energy efficiency trends in the EU: Have we got off track? June 25, 2020 Bruno Lapillonne, Laura Sudries, Enerdata Odyssee-Mure webinar series on Energy Efficiency organised by Leonardo ENERGY
About ▪ This webinar is organized in the framework of the ODYSSEE MURE Project. ▪ This project is supported by the H2020 programme of the European Commission. It covers 31 countries*, mainly energy efficiency agencies or Ministries; it is coordinated by ADEME, with the support of Enerdata and Fraunhofer-ISI. ▪ Its main objectives are to: ✓ Evaluate and compare energy efficiency progress by sector, in relation to the observed trend in energy consumption and to the EU targets ; ✓ Evaluate energy efficiency policy measures and identify the “best measures” . ▪ The project relies on two data bases: ✓ ODYSSEE on energy efficiency indicators; ✓ MURE on all policy measures implemented by sector, and their impact evaluation. www.odyssee-mure.eu Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 2 *28 EU Member States (UK included)+ Norway, Serbia and Switzerland
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 3 The ODYSSEE data tools http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/ The data and indicators are updated to 2019 using final energy consumption data produced by Enerdata and “early estimates” of key indicators produced by ODYSSEE through a new methodology (to be revised later and included in data tools in October). The webinar is based on data and indicators prepared in the framework of the ODYSSEE-MURE project, and disseminated in a data base and 5 data tools
Outline ▪ Energy consumption trends ▪ Energy efficiency trends ▪ Conclusions : have we got off track? 4Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
Energy consumption trends Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
• Stability of the EU primary consumption (total energy supply) since 2014, although the GDP increased by 2%/yr with the return to economic growth. • This follows a significant decrease of 1.5%/yr between 2007 and 2014 due to the financial crisis of 2009. • Regular and rapid decrease of the primary energy intensity since 2007 (~1.8%/year), slightly faster than over 2000-2007 (+0.3 pt) Primary energy consumption and intensity VS GDP Consumption and intensity at normal climate, Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 6 -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 %/year GDP Primary consumption Intensity 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2000=100
• Since 2014, decreasing primary consumption in 7 countries and low consumption growth below the 0.5%/year observed for the EU in 3 other countries. • Everywhere the consumption is progressing much slower than the GDP, implying a decreasing energy intensity, especially significant in Ireland, Malta, Sweden and the Czech Rep (below 3%/yr). Primary consumption and GDP trends over 2014-2019 Consumption at normal climate; Sources: ODYSSEE until 2017, Enerdata for 2018 and 2019; *2014-2018. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 7 -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% %/year Primary cons. GDP
• Final consumption, i.e. consumption in industry, transport and buildings, grows again since 2014 with the economic rebound: 0.8%/year. • This contrasts greatly with the primary energy consumption trend. • Electricity grows much slower (0.3%/yr), as opposed to past trends. • Transport is the most dynamic sector since 2014 (1.6%/yr, similar to 2000-2007 trend), while industry has the lowest progression (0.2%/yr). Households and services at normal climate *Services include non-specified Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 8 Total Electricity Final energy consumption trends -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% %/year 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 9 Drivers of primary energy consumption variation over 2014-2019 • Between 2014 and 2019, the primary consumption increased by 17 Mtoe, compared to 50 Mtoe for the final consumption. • This much lower progression of the primary consumption is due to: • a significant change in the power mix (higher share of renewables, lower share of nuclear) which contributed to lower the increase in primary consumption by 23 Mtoe • the increasing efficiency of thermal power plants (-20 Mtoe) A higher progression of final energy consumption Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool 1 519 + 50 + 5 - 20 - 23 + 5 1 536 1 450 1 500 1 550 1 600 2014 Var. final cons. Electricity penetration Efficiency thermal power plants Power mix Other transf. 2019 Mtoe
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 10 Final energy consumption by sector and by energy • Increasing share of transport in total final consumption from 30% to 34% in 2019 while industry’ share decreased by 4 pts, down to 25%. • Doubling of the direct penetration of renewables (from 4 to 8% in 2019). • Decreasing share for gas (from 24% in 2000 to 21% in 2019) and for oil (from 43% to 41%) while electricity share increased by 2 points. At normal climate for households and services Sources: 2000: ODYSSEE and 2019 : Enerdata 6% 43% 24% 19% 4% 4% 5% 41% 21% 21% 4% 8% Coal Oil Gas Electricity Heat Renewables 2000 2019* 29% 25% 30% 34% 27% 26% 11% 13% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2000 2019* Mtoe Industry Transport Households Services Agriculture
Energy efficiency trends Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
12 How is measured energy efficiency progress in ODYSSEE? ▪ At the level of sub-sectors or end-uses, energy efficiency progress is assessed through a wide variety of indicators of specific consumption, measured in physical units, such as: ✓ toe/ton for steel, cement in industry (or GJ/t); ✓ toe/pkm for cars, toe/tkm for freight in transport; ✓ toe/m2 for heating, kWh/household for electrical appliances and AC, … for households ; ✓ kWh/employee, per m2, per bed … in services. ▪ Examples of sectoral indicators are provided in the ODYSSEE “key indicators tool”* Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 *https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/online-indicators.html
200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 kWh/households koe/m2 Heating Refrigerators The question now is how to measure energy efficiency progress at sector level? • For households, we may obtain for instance different energy efficiency trends: 2.7%/yr for refrigerators and 1.9%/yr for heating. • The question now is how can we combine the different assessments of energy efficiency progress by end-use to get one trend for the whole sector? • This is the objective of the energy efficiency index, called “ODEX”. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 13 -1.9%/yr -2.7%/yr
How is calculated ODEX? • ODEX is calculated: – First, by expressing trends in specific energy consumption by end-use or sub-sector, as an index of variation ; – Then by calculating a average index for the sector weighted by the share of each end-use or sub-sector in the sector’s energy consumption. • As for each sub-sector, index of variation are used, specific consumption can be expressed in different physical units so as to be as close as possible to energy efficiency evaluation. • ODEX is presently calculated on the basis of up to 40 sub-sectors (8 modes in transport, 11 end-uses for households, 14 branches in industry, 6 branches in services). Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 14 For more information on ODEX: https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/odex-indicators-database-definition.pdf
Example of ODEX: households in the EU • ODEX equal 67 in 2019 ➔ households energy efficiency has improved by 33% at EU level between 2000 and 2019 (or 2.1%/year). Only main end-uses shown; ODEX calculated on the basis of 11 end-uses/large appliances : heating (toe/m2) (separation new/existing dwellings), water heating, cooking (toe/dwelling), cooling, lighting, refrigerator, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher, dryer, TV (kWh/appliance) 15Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2000=100 Total Heating Water heating Cooking Large elec appliances AC Lighting
• Energy efficiency of final consumers improved by 1.2%/yr from 2000 to 2019, with a slow down in recent years (0.9%/yr since 2014). • Larger gains for households (2.1%/yr since 2000), with a net slow down since 2014 (1.6 %/yr). • Rate of improvement divided by more than 2 in industry, since 2007 (0.8%/yr compared to 1.8%/yr before). • Regular but limited improvement in transport (1%/year). Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers ODEX=79 in 2019 ➔ 21% energy efficiency improvement or 1.2%/yr Source: ODYSSEE 16 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2000=100 Industry Transport Households Services Total
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cumulatedenergysavings (Mtoe) Annualenergysavings (Mtoe/year) Annual energy savings Cumulated energy savings Source: ODYSSEE • Energy efficiency progress has saved every year since 2000, an additional volume of 14 Mtoe. • These annual savings are fluctuating but tend to decrease over time. • Cumulated since 2000, these savings reached around 270 Mtoe in 2019. Energy efficiency progress results in energy savings
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 18Source: ODYSSEE • Because of the slowing pace of energy efficiency improvement, the annual additional savings have been regularly decreasing: from an average volume of 16.5 Mtoe/yr over 2000-2007 to 14.5 Mtoe/yr over 2007-2014 (divided by 3 in industry) and 11 Mtoe/yr since 2014 (1/3 reduction for households). Regular decrease in energy savings 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 Mtoe Industry Transport Households Services Average annual additional savings by sector
• The cumulated energy savings in 2019 since 2000 represents the equivalent of 25% of final energy consumption: in other words without these savings the final consumption would have been 25% higher. • Households, the sector with the highest number of regulations, is over represented, with a share of total savings (46%), much higher than its share in consumption (27%). On the other hand, savings in transport are much lower than their share in consumption (25% vs 34%). 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mtoe 25% 25% 46% 4% % in energy savings % in final consumption Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 19 Energy savings versus consumption Source: ODYSSEE 25% 34% 27% 14%
High share of energy savings in final consumption (>25%) Low share of energy savings in final consumption (<25%) • Long-standing EU Member States (e.g. Germany, Italy and France) have a relatively lower share of energy savings since 2000, as they had a greater effort before. • New EU MS (e.g. Slovakia, Bulgaria or Latvia) have a higher share due to greater efforts in terms of energy savings since 2000 Source: ODYSSEE Austria Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland Greece Hungary Ireland Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Norway Portugal Czech Rep Slovakia Slovenia Sweden 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Austria Belgium Spain Finland France UK Greece Italy Netherlands Poland Czech Rep Germany Romania Sweden 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Shareofcountryenergysavings(2000-2017)intotal EUsavings Share of country final energy consumption in total EU
21 Activity effect : mainly economic growth, plus demography and lifestyle changes (appliance ownership and larger dwellings). Source: ODYSSEE; decomposition tool https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html Drivers of final energy consumption variation: 2014-2019 • Between 2014 and 2019, the economic and demographic growth (“activity”) contributed to raise the final consumption by 95 Mtoe. • Energy savings offset more than half of this activity effect by reducing consumption by 55 Mtoe. 50.3 95.1 -4.1 -54.5 6.8 7.0 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Mtoe Var. cons. final Activity Structure Energy savings Climate Other
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy savings Primary cons. Energy savings first fuel in primary energy consumption Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 22 • Looking on a longer period, since 1990, energy savings have reduced primary consumption by around 580 Mtoe in 2019, i.e. the equivalent of 27% of that consumption. • Energy savings is the first fuel in primary consumption in 2019 (4 points above oil with a share of 23%). Energy savings represents 27% of 2019 primary consumption Source: ODYSSEE
Final energy intensity and energy efficiency trends • Since 2014 energy efficiency only explains half of the final energy intensity reduction. • Different types of structural changes (e.g. towards less energy intensive sectors (services) and industrial branches, saturation effects, higher value added products … ) have contributed as much to the intensity reduction . • Before 2014 most of the intensity decrease was due to energy efficiency improvements (around 80%)… Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 23 -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 %/year Final intensity Structural changes Savings Source: ODYSSEE
Conclusions Have we got off track? Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 24
EU Energy efficiency targets * Referred to as PRIMES 2007 from the model name used • Energy efficiency targets are always difficult to define, they can be expressed in terms of: i. Energy intensity reduction, but as explained, variation in intensity include other factors than energy efficiency; ii. Energy consumption reduction compared to a baseline; iii. Energy savings; iv. Energy consumption target level (i.e. absolute consumption cap) • The EU has been using the 3 last types of targets, in a complementary way. If we refer to the most recent update of the EU energy efficiency law called EED (Energy Efficiency Directive), the EU has the following targets: • 32.5% energy saving target in 2030 (20% in 2020), for the EU as whole, compared to a Baseline projection*; • 1.5% additional energy savings until 2020 and 0.8% over 2021-2030 from energy savings obligation or policy measures (Article 7 of EED); • Primary and final energy consumption targets by country (Article 3). Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 25
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Mtoe Primary cons. at real climate Final cons. at real climate Final cons. target Primary cons. target BAU primary BAU final Primary and final energy consumption targets Source: ODYSSEE -20% • In 2019, EU primary and final consumption were closed to the 2020 efficiency targets (around 4% and 3% above respectively). • Warmer winters have helped achieving the targets (final consumption at normal climate 5% above target in 2019) . • Past trends do not enable to reach the 2030 targets. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 26 -32.5% PRIMES 2007
27 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mtoe Art. 7 savings Top-down ODYSSEE savings Target Article 7 imposes a certain level of energy savings • 1.5% of additional annual savings according to Article 7 of EED for final consumers over 2014-2020 (and 0.8%/year from 2021 to 2030). • Energy savings from Article 7 as reported by MS reached 40% of 2020 target in 2017, our estimate based on indicators exceed the target but our savings are broader than Article 7 savings (as they include all types of savings: policy related and from autonomous progress). Source: ODYSSEE Savings target obtained by cumulating annual energy savings over 2014-2020
Conclusions • Since 2014, the increasing share of renewables and more efficient thermal generation has offset 90% of the increase in final consumption. • Energy efficiency improvement of final consumers has been much slower since 2007 in industry and since 2014 for households. • The progression is the strongest for households (multiple regulations and incentives implemented at EU and national level). • Have we got off track? – EU 2020 targets on primary consumption will be easily reached due to COVID crisis which will decrease consumption by 5 to 10% in 2020. – EU target to 2030 will not be reached with present trends and require additional measures, which is the purpose of Article 7. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 28
www.enerdata.net Thank you for your attention ! Contact: About Enerdata: Enerdata is an energy intelligence and consulting company established in 1991. Our experts will help you tackle key energy and climate issues and make sound strategic and business decisions. We provide research, solutions, consulting and training to key energy players worldwide. Bruno Lapillonne, Scientific director Bruno.lapillonne@enerdata.net Laura Sudries, Energy efficiency analyst Laura.sudries@enerdata.net 29Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

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Energy efficiency trends in the EU: Have we got off track?

  • 1. Energy efficiency trends in the EU: Have we got off track? June 25, 2020 Bruno Lapillonne, Laura Sudries, Enerdata Odyssee-Mure webinar series on Energy Efficiency organised by Leonardo ENERGY
  • 2. About ▪ This webinar is organized in the framework of the ODYSSEE MURE Project. ▪ This project is supported by the H2020 programme of the European Commission. It covers 31 countries*, mainly energy efficiency agencies or Ministries; it is coordinated by ADEME, with the support of Enerdata and Fraunhofer-ISI. ▪ Its main objectives are to: ✓ Evaluate and compare energy efficiency progress by sector, in relation to the observed trend in energy consumption and to the EU targets ; ✓ Evaluate energy efficiency policy measures and identify the “best measures” . ▪ The project relies on two data bases: ✓ ODYSSEE on energy efficiency indicators; ✓ MURE on all policy measures implemented by sector, and their impact evaluation. www.odyssee-mure.eu Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 2 *28 EU Member States (UK included)+ Norway, Serbia and Switzerland
  • 3. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 3 The ODYSSEE data tools http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/ The data and indicators are updated to 2019 using final energy consumption data produced by Enerdata and “early estimates” of key indicators produced by ODYSSEE through a new methodology (to be revised later and included in data tools in October). The webinar is based on data and indicators prepared in the framework of the ODYSSEE-MURE project, and disseminated in a data base and 5 data tools
  • 4. Outline ▪ Energy consumption trends ▪ Energy efficiency trends ▪ Conclusions : have we got off track? 4Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
  • 5. Energy consumption trends Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
  • 6. • Stability of the EU primary consumption (total energy supply) since 2014, although the GDP increased by 2%/yr with the return to economic growth. • This follows a significant decrease of 1.5%/yr between 2007 and 2014 due to the financial crisis of 2009. • Regular and rapid decrease of the primary energy intensity since 2007 (~1.8%/year), slightly faster than over 2000-2007 (+0.3 pt) Primary energy consumption and intensity VS GDP Consumption and intensity at normal climate, Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 6 -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 %/year GDP Primary consumption Intensity 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2000=100
  • 7. • Since 2014, decreasing primary consumption in 7 countries and low consumption growth below the 0.5%/year observed for the EU in 3 other countries. • Everywhere the consumption is progressing much slower than the GDP, implying a decreasing energy intensity, especially significant in Ireland, Malta, Sweden and the Czech Rep (below 3%/yr). Primary consumption and GDP trends over 2014-2019 Consumption at normal climate; Sources: ODYSSEE until 2017, Enerdata for 2018 and 2019; *2014-2018. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 7 -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% %/year Primary cons. GDP
  • 8. • Final consumption, i.e. consumption in industry, transport and buildings, grows again since 2014 with the economic rebound: 0.8%/year. • This contrasts greatly with the primary energy consumption trend. • Electricity grows much slower (0.3%/yr), as opposed to past trends. • Transport is the most dynamic sector since 2014 (1.6%/yr, similar to 2000-2007 trend), while industry has the lowest progression (0.2%/yr). Households and services at normal climate *Services include non-specified Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 8 Total Electricity Final energy consumption trends -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% %/year 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
  • 9. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 9 Drivers of primary energy consumption variation over 2014-2019 • Between 2014 and 2019, the primary consumption increased by 17 Mtoe, compared to 50 Mtoe for the final consumption. • This much lower progression of the primary consumption is due to: • a significant change in the power mix (higher share of renewables, lower share of nuclear) which contributed to lower the increase in primary consumption by 23 Mtoe • the increasing efficiency of thermal power plants (-20 Mtoe) A higher progression of final energy consumption Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool 1 519 + 50 + 5 - 20 - 23 + 5 1 536 1 450 1 500 1 550 1 600 2014 Var. final cons. Electricity penetration Efficiency thermal power plants Power mix Other transf. 2019 Mtoe
  • 10. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 10 Final energy consumption by sector and by energy • Increasing share of transport in total final consumption from 30% to 34% in 2019 while industry’ share decreased by 4 pts, down to 25%. • Doubling of the direct penetration of renewables (from 4 to 8% in 2019). • Decreasing share for gas (from 24% in 2000 to 21% in 2019) and for oil (from 43% to 41%) while electricity share increased by 2 points. At normal climate for households and services Sources: 2000: ODYSSEE and 2019 : Enerdata 6% 43% 24% 19% 4% 4% 5% 41% 21% 21% 4% 8% Coal Oil Gas Electricity Heat Renewables 2000 2019* 29% 25% 30% 34% 27% 26% 11% 13% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2000 2019* Mtoe Industry Transport Households Services Agriculture
  • 11. Energy efficiency trends Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
  • 12. 12 How is measured energy efficiency progress in ODYSSEE? ▪ At the level of sub-sectors or end-uses, energy efficiency progress is assessed through a wide variety of indicators of specific consumption, measured in physical units, such as: ✓ toe/ton for steel, cement in industry (or GJ/t); ✓ toe/pkm for cars, toe/tkm for freight in transport; ✓ toe/m2 for heating, kWh/household for electrical appliances and AC, … for households ; ✓ kWh/employee, per m2, per bed … in services. ▪ Examples of sectoral indicators are provided in the ODYSSEE “key indicators tool”* Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 *https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/online-indicators.html
  • 13. 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 kWh/households koe/m2 Heating Refrigerators The question now is how to measure energy efficiency progress at sector level? • For households, we may obtain for instance different energy efficiency trends: 2.7%/yr for refrigerators and 1.9%/yr for heating. • The question now is how can we combine the different assessments of energy efficiency progress by end-use to get one trend for the whole sector? • This is the objective of the energy efficiency index, called “ODEX”. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 13 -1.9%/yr -2.7%/yr
  • 14. How is calculated ODEX? • ODEX is calculated: – First, by expressing trends in specific energy consumption by end-use or sub-sector, as an index of variation ; – Then by calculating a average index for the sector weighted by the share of each end-use or sub-sector in the sector’s energy consumption. • As for each sub-sector, index of variation are used, specific consumption can be expressed in different physical units so as to be as close as possible to energy efficiency evaluation. • ODEX is presently calculated on the basis of up to 40 sub-sectors (8 modes in transport, 11 end-uses for households, 14 branches in industry, 6 branches in services). Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 14 For more information on ODEX: https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/odex-indicators-database-definition.pdf
  • 15. Example of ODEX: households in the EU • ODEX equal 67 in 2019 ➔ households energy efficiency has improved by 33% at EU level between 2000 and 2019 (or 2.1%/year). Only main end-uses shown; ODEX calculated on the basis of 11 end-uses/large appliances : heating (toe/m2) (separation new/existing dwellings), water heating, cooking (toe/dwelling), cooling, lighting, refrigerator, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher, dryer, TV (kWh/appliance) 15Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2000=100 Total Heating Water heating Cooking Large elec appliances AC Lighting
  • 16. • Energy efficiency of final consumers improved by 1.2%/yr from 2000 to 2019, with a slow down in recent years (0.9%/yr since 2014). • Larger gains for households (2.1%/yr since 2000), with a net slow down since 2014 (1.6 %/yr). • Rate of improvement divided by more than 2 in industry, since 2007 (0.8%/yr compared to 1.8%/yr before). • Regular but limited improvement in transport (1%/year). Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers ODEX=79 in 2019 ➔ 21% energy efficiency improvement or 1.2%/yr Source: ODYSSEE 16 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2000=100 Industry Transport Households Services Total
  • 17. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cumulatedenergysavings (Mtoe) Annualenergysavings (Mtoe/year) Annual energy savings Cumulated energy savings Source: ODYSSEE • Energy efficiency progress has saved every year since 2000, an additional volume of 14 Mtoe. • These annual savings are fluctuating but tend to decrease over time. • Cumulated since 2000, these savings reached around 270 Mtoe in 2019. Energy efficiency progress results in energy savings
  • 18. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 18Source: ODYSSEE • Because of the slowing pace of energy efficiency improvement, the annual additional savings have been regularly decreasing: from an average volume of 16.5 Mtoe/yr over 2000-2007 to 14.5 Mtoe/yr over 2007-2014 (divided by 3 in industry) and 11 Mtoe/yr since 2014 (1/3 reduction for households). Regular decrease in energy savings 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 Mtoe Industry Transport Households Services Average annual additional savings by sector
  • 19. • The cumulated energy savings in 2019 since 2000 represents the equivalent of 25% of final energy consumption: in other words without these savings the final consumption would have been 25% higher. • Households, the sector with the highest number of regulations, is over represented, with a share of total savings (46%), much higher than its share in consumption (27%). On the other hand, savings in transport are much lower than their share in consumption (25% vs 34%). 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mtoe 25% 25% 46% 4% % in energy savings % in final consumption Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 19 Energy savings versus consumption Source: ODYSSEE 25% 34% 27% 14%
  • 20. High share of energy savings in final consumption (>25%) Low share of energy savings in final consumption (<25%) • Long-standing EU Member States (e.g. Germany, Italy and France) have a relatively lower share of energy savings since 2000, as they had a greater effort before. • New EU MS (e.g. Slovakia, Bulgaria or Latvia) have a higher share due to greater efforts in terms of energy savings since 2000 Source: ODYSSEE Austria Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland Greece Hungary Ireland Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Norway Portugal Czech Rep Slovakia Slovenia Sweden 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Austria Belgium Spain Finland France UK Greece Italy Netherlands Poland Czech Rep Germany Romania Sweden 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Shareofcountryenergysavings(2000-2017)intotal EUsavings Share of country final energy consumption in total EU
  • 21. 21 Activity effect : mainly economic growth, plus demography and lifestyle changes (appliance ownership and larger dwellings). Source: ODYSSEE; decomposition tool https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html Drivers of final energy consumption variation: 2014-2019 • Between 2014 and 2019, the economic and demographic growth (“activity”) contributed to raise the final consumption by 95 Mtoe. • Energy savings offset more than half of this activity effect by reducing consumption by 55 Mtoe. 50.3 95.1 -4.1 -54.5 6.8 7.0 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Mtoe Var. cons. final Activity Structure Energy savings Climate Other
  • 22. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy savings Primary cons. Energy savings first fuel in primary energy consumption Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 22 • Looking on a longer period, since 1990, energy savings have reduced primary consumption by around 580 Mtoe in 2019, i.e. the equivalent of 27% of that consumption. • Energy savings is the first fuel in primary consumption in 2019 (4 points above oil with a share of 23%). Energy savings represents 27% of 2019 primary consumption Source: ODYSSEE
  • 23. Final energy intensity and energy efficiency trends • Since 2014 energy efficiency only explains half of the final energy intensity reduction. • Different types of structural changes (e.g. towards less energy intensive sectors (services) and industrial branches, saturation effects, higher value added products … ) have contributed as much to the intensity reduction . • Before 2014 most of the intensity decrease was due to energy efficiency improvements (around 80%)… Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 23 -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 %/year Final intensity Structural changes Savings Source: ODYSSEE
  • 24. Conclusions Have we got off track? Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 24
  • 25. EU Energy efficiency targets * Referred to as PRIMES 2007 from the model name used • Energy efficiency targets are always difficult to define, they can be expressed in terms of: i. Energy intensity reduction, but as explained, variation in intensity include other factors than energy efficiency; ii. Energy consumption reduction compared to a baseline; iii. Energy savings; iv. Energy consumption target level (i.e. absolute consumption cap) • The EU has been using the 3 last types of targets, in a complementary way. If we refer to the most recent update of the EU energy efficiency law called EED (Energy Efficiency Directive), the EU has the following targets: • 32.5% energy saving target in 2030 (20% in 2020), for the EU as whole, compared to a Baseline projection*; • 1.5% additional energy savings until 2020 and 0.8% over 2021-2030 from energy savings obligation or policy measures (Article 7 of EED); • Primary and final energy consumption targets by country (Article 3). Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 25
  • 26. 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Mtoe Primary cons. at real climate Final cons. at real climate Final cons. target Primary cons. target BAU primary BAU final Primary and final energy consumption targets Source: ODYSSEE -20% • In 2019, EU primary and final consumption were closed to the 2020 efficiency targets (around 4% and 3% above respectively). • Warmer winters have helped achieving the targets (final consumption at normal climate 5% above target in 2019) . • Past trends do not enable to reach the 2030 targets. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 26 -32.5% PRIMES 2007
  • 27. 27 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mtoe Art. 7 savings Top-down ODYSSEE savings Target Article 7 imposes a certain level of energy savings • 1.5% of additional annual savings according to Article 7 of EED for final consumers over 2014-2020 (and 0.8%/year from 2021 to 2030). • Energy savings from Article 7 as reported by MS reached 40% of 2020 target in 2017, our estimate based on indicators exceed the target but our savings are broader than Article 7 savings (as they include all types of savings: policy related and from autonomous progress). Source: ODYSSEE Savings target obtained by cumulating annual energy savings over 2014-2020
  • 28. Conclusions • Since 2014, the increasing share of renewables and more efficient thermal generation has offset 90% of the increase in final consumption. • Energy efficiency improvement of final consumers has been much slower since 2007 in industry and since 2014 for households. • The progression is the strongest for households (multiple regulations and incentives implemented at EU and national level). • Have we got off track? – EU 2020 targets on primary consumption will be easily reached due to COVID crisis which will decrease consumption by 5 to 10% in 2020. – EU target to 2030 will not be reached with present trends and require additional measures, which is the purpose of Article 7. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 28
  • 29. www.enerdata.net Thank you for your attention ! Contact: About Enerdata: Enerdata is an energy intelligence and consulting company established in 1991. Our experts will help you tackle key energy and climate issues and make sound strategic and business decisions. We provide research, solutions, consulting and training to key energy players worldwide. Bruno Lapillonne, Scientific director Bruno.lapillonne@enerdata.net Laura Sudries, Energy efficiency analyst Laura.sudries@enerdata.net 29Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020