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IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF
MASSIVE BIO FUEL
PRODUCTION ON FOOD
PRICE INDEX
YASIN KABIR
Overview
Segment 1
Introduction
Aim
RQs
Methodology
Limitations
Segment 2 (Global perspective)
Impact -in a global context
Urban-poor in LIFDC
Gender perspective
Segment 3m (Local perspective)
Affects on USA local market
Brazil‟s role
Segment 4
Discussion
Conclusion
Introduction
• Bio fuel (bf) is liquid, solid, or gaseous fuels derived from renewable biological
sources. (i.e ethanol). Crops are currently used i.e. sugar cane (Brazil), corn,
maize (USA) to produce ethanol
• Recent rise in energy prices-tensions in OPEC, uncertainties in future
availability and access to non-renewable resources have made bf a major issue
in many countries‟ policy.
• As food grains is being converted for the production of bf ,it triggered rise in
food price index worldwide
Aim
 The aim of the study was to assess the impacts of mass scale bio-fuel crop
production on food price indices (global perspective), information was also
collected regarding the case of Brazil and USA in a local context.
RQs
 What are the possible Impacts of using food crops as bio-fuel on food-grain
price index?
 Case study on the aforementioned issue (food grain price) in USA and Brazil.
 How to reduce the impact on food grain price index of bf? Is there any ways
to convert the bf„curse‟ to a „blessing‟ ?
Methodology
 Economical impacts ,case studies was assessed based on literature review
(articles, internet sources).Recommendations were made from author‟s own
analysis
Segment 1
Introduction
Aim
RQs
Methodology
Limitations
Segment 2
Impact-in a global context
Urban-poor in LIFDC
Gender perspective
Segment 3
Affects on USA local market
Brazil’s role
Segment 4
Discussion
Conclusion
Limitations
Economical impacts were concerned, in terms
of monetary value (price/unit over a period of
time).
Affect of inflation, local country taxation,
Federal Reserve‟s impacts, money laundering,
international political effects, economical and
financial terminologies, jargons or tools were
not considered in this paper.
On the context of case studies, due to the
scope, time and resource constraints, we
conducted only a desktop study rather than a
field study. The local commodity price shift was
studied based on general knowledge and all
financial hedging effects will be ignored.
Segment 1
Introduction
Aim
RQs
Methodology
Limitations
Segment 2
Impact-in a global context
Urban-poor in LIFDC
Gender perspective
Segment 3
Affects on USA local market
Brazil’s role
Segment 4
Discussion
Conclusion
Segment 1
Introduction
Aim
RQs
Methodology
Limitations
Segment 2
Impact-in a global context
Urban-poor in LIFDC
Gender perspective
Segment 3
Affects on USA local market
Brazil’s role
Segment 4
Discussion
Conclusion
Gender Perspective
Source: Soaring food prices: facts, perspectives, impacts and actions required, high-level conference on world food
security: the challenges of Climate change and bio energy, FAO, Rome, 3 - 5 June 2008
Fig: GenderBias in Poverty and Welfare Effects of Staple Food Price Increases
From figure 1
The FHH are with very few
exceptions are economically
weaker than that of male headed
households and the resultant is
with the food price hike they are
more susceptible to the negative
effect as they spend more on
food than the male counter parts
The table also indicates that
Ghana and Viet Nam holds a
share of more than 20% of the
entire family structure as FHH
Also seen from the table that,
except from Guatemala , in all
the countries FHH are more
susceptible to welfare losses
than the MHH
Segment 1
Introduction
Aim
RQs
Methodology
Limitations
Segment 2
Impact-in a global context
Urban-poor in LIFDC
Gender perspective
Segment 3
Affects on USA local market
Brazil’s role
Segment 4
Discussion
Conclusion
Affects on USA local market
Source: Baier S, Clements M.et al March, 2009, Bio-fuel Impacton Crop and Food prices:Using an Interactive Spreadsheet
Figure: Corn , Livestock Poultry and Egg Prices 1998/99-2006/7
Figure: Corn prices and US ethanol Production,Jan.2005- May 2008
Corn Price 1.8$
Ethanol production 9,000,000 of barrels
Corn Price 5.5$
Ethanol production 18,000,000
of barrels
Brazil’s Role
 WB claimed in July 2008
”Brazil's sugar-based ethanol did not push food prices”
This WB report concluded that, though Brazil has been
used sugar cane a large scale to produce ethanol, it has not
raised worldwide sugar price.. The same year, OECD also
published an economic assessment report and agreed on
the same issue with WB
 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva blamed strongly to the US and
European subsidies as well as gave a restriction of using
maize as biofuel crop. The Brazilian President declared in
different ocassions that they are not responsible for world
higher food prices
 A study, "the effects on bio fuels on grain prices" has been
published by Brazilian research unit of Fundação Getúlio
Vargas. The study asserted that huge ethanol production
need lots of sugar cane cultivation land. But Brazilian sugar
cane production has no contribution to the average grain
prices
Segment 1
Introduction
Aim
RQs
Methodology
Limitations
Segment 2
Impact-in a global context
Urban-poor in LIFDC
Gender perspective
Segment 3
Affects on USA local market
Brazil’s role
Segment 4
Discussion
Conclusion
Limits of biofules
 First generation
◦ Most critizised
◦ Emits CO2 in the production stage
◦ Competes with food production
 Second generation
◦ Expensive and complex process
◦ Less fertile soil
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion
Limits of biofules
 Thrid generation
◦ All pros and cons not assessed
 Life cycle assessment
 New biofules are expensive
 Difficult for developing countries
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion
Major producers
 Brazil,USA, the member state of European Union
and several other countries are dominating the
production of biofuel.
 Most of bio fuels were supported by government
incentives
 More than 200 support proceeds were involved
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion
Food price inflation
 Bio fuel production pushed up maize price
 “…the impact of current biofuel policies on world crop prices, largely
through increased demand for cereals and vegetable oils, is significant but
should not be overestimated.” (OECD)
 Current biofuel support measures alone are estimated to increase
average wheat prices
 Higher corn price lead to higher price in animal source foods.
 The 2007-2008 world food crises are partly blamed on increased demand
of biofuels
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion
 Enhance energy security
 Environmental Impact
 Benefits to smallholders
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion
Impacts on developing countries
 Poor people more susceptible to the price hike
 Aid agencies
 Burning forests
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion
Proposed actions
 Freeze on first generation biofuels
production
 Non food crops for biofuel
 Biofuel from food byproducts and co
products
 Reduce farmland reserves and set asides
 Sustainable production of biofuel
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion
Potential benefits
 Brazil: the world‟s first sustainable biofuel
economy.
 According to FAO: biofuel can make
small farmers offers of potential profit
and recommended small credit programs
to help the industry grow.
 Local producers stand a better chance to
capture local market share
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion
Conclusion
 First generation biofules land-demanding
 Second generation expensive and emits
CO2
 Third generation expensive
 Developing countries suffer from higher
food prices because of first generation
biofuel but can not afford production of
newer biofules
 What are
biofules?
 What is
biomass?
 First generation
biofules
 Second
generation
biofules
 Third
generation
biofules
 Limits of
biofules
 Major
producers
 Food price
inflation
 Potentional
risks of biofules
 Impact on
developing
countries
 Proposed
actions
 Potential
benefits
 Conclusion

More Related Content

Food vs fuel copy

  • 1. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF MASSIVE BIO FUEL PRODUCTION ON FOOD PRICE INDEX YASIN KABIR
  • 2. Overview Segment 1 Introduction Aim RQs Methodology Limitations Segment 2 (Global perspective) Impact -in a global context Urban-poor in LIFDC Gender perspective Segment 3m (Local perspective) Affects on USA local market Brazil‟s role Segment 4 Discussion Conclusion
  • 3. Introduction • Bio fuel (bf) is liquid, solid, or gaseous fuels derived from renewable biological sources. (i.e ethanol). Crops are currently used i.e. sugar cane (Brazil), corn, maize (USA) to produce ethanol • Recent rise in energy prices-tensions in OPEC, uncertainties in future availability and access to non-renewable resources have made bf a major issue in many countries‟ policy. • As food grains is being converted for the production of bf ,it triggered rise in food price index worldwide Aim  The aim of the study was to assess the impacts of mass scale bio-fuel crop production on food price indices (global perspective), information was also collected regarding the case of Brazil and USA in a local context. RQs  What are the possible Impacts of using food crops as bio-fuel on food-grain price index?  Case study on the aforementioned issue (food grain price) in USA and Brazil.  How to reduce the impact on food grain price index of bf? Is there any ways to convert the bf„curse‟ to a „blessing‟ ? Methodology  Economical impacts ,case studies was assessed based on literature review (articles, internet sources).Recommendations were made from author‟s own analysis Segment 1 Introduction Aim RQs Methodology Limitations Segment 2 Impact-in a global context Urban-poor in LIFDC Gender perspective Segment 3 Affects on USA local market Brazil’s role Segment 4 Discussion Conclusion
  • 4. Limitations Economical impacts were concerned, in terms of monetary value (price/unit over a period of time). Affect of inflation, local country taxation, Federal Reserve‟s impacts, money laundering, international political effects, economical and financial terminologies, jargons or tools were not considered in this paper. On the context of case studies, due to the scope, time and resource constraints, we conducted only a desktop study rather than a field study. The local commodity price shift was studied based on general knowledge and all financial hedging effects will be ignored. Segment 1 Introduction Aim RQs Methodology Limitations Segment 2 Impact-in a global context Urban-poor in LIFDC Gender perspective Segment 3 Affects on USA local market Brazil’s role Segment 4 Discussion Conclusion
  • 5. Segment 1 Introduction Aim RQs Methodology Limitations Segment 2 Impact-in a global context Urban-poor in LIFDC Gender perspective Segment 3 Affects on USA local market Brazil’s role Segment 4 Discussion Conclusion Gender Perspective Source: Soaring food prices: facts, perspectives, impacts and actions required, high-level conference on world food security: the challenges of Climate change and bio energy, FAO, Rome, 3 - 5 June 2008 Fig: GenderBias in Poverty and Welfare Effects of Staple Food Price Increases From figure 1 The FHH are with very few exceptions are economically weaker than that of male headed households and the resultant is with the food price hike they are more susceptible to the negative effect as they spend more on food than the male counter parts The table also indicates that Ghana and Viet Nam holds a share of more than 20% of the entire family structure as FHH Also seen from the table that, except from Guatemala , in all the countries FHH are more susceptible to welfare losses than the MHH
  • 6. Segment 1 Introduction Aim RQs Methodology Limitations Segment 2 Impact-in a global context Urban-poor in LIFDC Gender perspective Segment 3 Affects on USA local market Brazil’s role Segment 4 Discussion Conclusion Affects on USA local market Source: Baier S, Clements M.et al March, 2009, Bio-fuel Impacton Crop and Food prices:Using an Interactive Spreadsheet Figure: Corn , Livestock Poultry and Egg Prices 1998/99-2006/7 Figure: Corn prices and US ethanol Production,Jan.2005- May 2008 Corn Price 1.8$ Ethanol production 9,000,000 of barrels Corn Price 5.5$ Ethanol production 18,000,000 of barrels
  • 7. Brazil’s Role  WB claimed in July 2008 ”Brazil's sugar-based ethanol did not push food prices” This WB report concluded that, though Brazil has been used sugar cane a large scale to produce ethanol, it has not raised worldwide sugar price.. The same year, OECD also published an economic assessment report and agreed on the same issue with WB  Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva blamed strongly to the US and European subsidies as well as gave a restriction of using maize as biofuel crop. The Brazilian President declared in different ocassions that they are not responsible for world higher food prices  A study, "the effects on bio fuels on grain prices" has been published by Brazilian research unit of Fundação Getúlio Vargas. The study asserted that huge ethanol production need lots of sugar cane cultivation land. But Brazilian sugar cane production has no contribution to the average grain prices Segment 1 Introduction Aim RQs Methodology Limitations Segment 2 Impact-in a global context Urban-poor in LIFDC Gender perspective Segment 3 Affects on USA local market Brazil’s role Segment 4 Discussion Conclusion
  • 8. Limits of biofules  First generation ◦ Most critizised ◦ Emits CO2 in the production stage ◦ Competes with food production  Second generation ◦ Expensive and complex process ◦ Less fertile soil  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion
  • 9. Limits of biofules  Thrid generation ◦ All pros and cons not assessed  Life cycle assessment  New biofules are expensive  Difficult for developing countries  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion
  • 10. Major producers  Brazil,USA, the member state of European Union and several other countries are dominating the production of biofuel.  Most of bio fuels were supported by government incentives  More than 200 support proceeds were involved  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion
  • 11. Food price inflation  Bio fuel production pushed up maize price  “…the impact of current biofuel policies on world crop prices, largely through increased demand for cereals and vegetable oils, is significant but should not be overestimated.” (OECD)  Current biofuel support measures alone are estimated to increase average wheat prices  Higher corn price lead to higher price in animal source foods.  The 2007-2008 world food crises are partly blamed on increased demand of biofuels  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion
  • 12.  Enhance energy security  Environmental Impact  Benefits to smallholders  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion
  • 13. Impacts on developing countries  Poor people more susceptible to the price hike  Aid agencies  Burning forests  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion
  • 14. Proposed actions  Freeze on first generation biofuels production  Non food crops for biofuel  Biofuel from food byproducts and co products  Reduce farmland reserves and set asides  Sustainable production of biofuel  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion
  • 15. Potential benefits  Brazil: the world‟s first sustainable biofuel economy.  According to FAO: biofuel can make small farmers offers of potential profit and recommended small credit programs to help the industry grow.  Local producers stand a better chance to capture local market share  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion
  • 16. Conclusion  First generation biofules land-demanding  Second generation expensive and emits CO2  Third generation expensive  Developing countries suffer from higher food prices because of first generation biofuel but can not afford production of newer biofules  What are biofules?  What is biomass?  First generation biofules  Second generation biofules  Third generation biofules  Limits of biofules  Major producers  Food price inflation  Potentional risks of biofules  Impact on developing countries  Proposed actions  Potential benefits  Conclusion