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Genauer 5

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genauer

This document contains 10 pages summarizing: 1) Long and short term interest rate histories of various Eurozone countries 2) Development of European migration patterns, including UN data and projections 3) Key events related to the European migration crisis along with cross-Balkan migration developments 4) Voting patterns in Germany for the AfD party The pages include graphs and annotations on interest rates, migration flows, and political events.

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Genauer‘s sampler 5 of various graphs for variousGenauer‘s sampler 5 of various graphs for various discussions page Long term history of interest rates of various Euro countries (updated 3/26/2016) 2 Short term history of interest rates of various Euro countries 3 Detail Short term history of interest rates of various Euro countries 4Detail Short term history of interest rates of various Euro countries 4 Development of the European Migration avalanche (UN data) 5 Development of the European Migration avalanche (log scale, projections) 6Development of the European Migration avalanche (log scale, projections) 6 European Migration avalanche , annotated with events 7 Cross Balkan Migration developments, since October 2015 8 Cross Balkan Migration developments, detailed, since February 2016 9 AfD vote in Germany 10 4/1/2016 genauer 1
4/1/2016 genauer 2
Fit until 12/2015
10-yr interest rate for selected Euro bonds (lines are SIMPLE model)Germany 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Interestrate[%] Netherlands Portugal Ireland Greece 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Interestrate[%] Greece Germany France Italy 0.0% 0.5% 6/30/2012 8/31/2012 10/31/2012 12/31/2012 2/28/2013 4/30/2013 6/30/2013 8/31/2013 10/31/2013 12/31/2013 2/28/2014 4/30/2014 6/30/2014 8/31/2014 10/31/2014 12/31/2014 2/28/2015 4/30/2015 6/30/2015 8/31/2015 10/31/2015 12/31/2015 2/29/2016 4/30/2016 6/30/2016 Interestrate[%] Spain Netherlands Portugal Ireland 6/30/2012 8/31/2012 10/31/2012 12/31/2012 2/28/2013 4/30/2013 6/30/2013 8/31/2013 10/31/2013 12/31/2013 2/28/2014 4/30/2014 6/30/2014 8/31/2014 10/31/2014 12/31/2014 2/28/2015 4/30/2015 6/30/2015 8/31/2015 10/31/2015 12/31/2015 2/29/2016 4/30/2016 6/30/2016 Ireland Greece Fit until 2/28/2016, Portugal left the noise corridor 1/31/2016, 4/1/2016 genauer 4 Fit until 2/28/2016, Portugal left the noise corridor 1/31/2016, directing for a month to a Greek spiral
4/1/2016 genauer 5
4/1/2016 genauer 6
1/26/15 Tsipras dissolves GR camps 10/16/15 Hungarian / croat fence completed 3/5/15 Kammenos debt junctim 10/19/15 Merkel visits Erdogan3/5/15 Kammenos debt junctim 10/19/15 Merkel visits Erdogan 5/7/15 de Maiziere 450 000 prediction 10/25/15 Balkan Mini Summit (Merkel) 6/22/15 Greece Euro summit 10/28/15 Austrian Fence started 6/30/15 Hungarian/Serb Fence start 11/11/15 Slovenian Fence started6/30/15 Hungarian/Serb Fence start 11/11/15 Slovenian Fence started 7/13/15 Greece Euro summit 11/29/15 Macedonian fence start 8/19/15 de Maiziere 800 000 prediction 1/20/16 Austrian quota 37500 / year 8/24/15 German internal memo 1/22/16 Austrian Fence finished8/24/15 German internal memo 1/22/16 Austrian Fence finished 8/25/15 BAMF twitter 4:30 am 2/18/16 Austria quota 80 / day 8/26/15 Begin of Russian deployment to Syria 2/22/16 Macedonia border closure Hungarian / Austrian trains to 8/31/15 Hungarian / Austrian trains to Germany 2/22/16 Syria cessastion of hostilities 9/5/15 Merkel/Faymann/orban decision to take migrants in Hungary 2/24/16 Austrian Balkan Summit, only Syrians and Iraqis9/5/15 Hungary 2/24/16 and Iraqis 9/11/15 Merkel selfies with migrants 3/6/16 Macedonian 320 km fence finished 9/13/15 German border controls started 3/6/16 Merkel against "Balkan closed" Hungarian/ Serb fence 9/14/15 Hungarian/ Serb fence complete 3/7/16 EU Turkey summit 9/16/15 Horgos riot 3/9/16 Slovenian border closed 9/18/15 Hungarian/ Croat fence started 3/20/16 Turkey cutoff 4/1/2016 genauer 7 10/13/15 Syrian Archbishop supports Putin /Assad 3/31/16 today
Development of Migrant Streams across the BalkanDevelopment of Migrant Streams across the Balkan 4/1/2016 genauer 8
Detailed development of Migrant streams across the Balkan: Austrian / Macedonian border closures trigger strong decay ofAustrian / Macedonian border closures trigger strong decay of Greek Island arrivals 4/1/2016 genauer 9
AfD vote in Germany 4/1/2016 genauer 10

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Genauer 5

  • 1. Genauer‘s sampler 5 of various graphs for variousGenauer‘s sampler 5 of various graphs for various discussions page Long term history of interest rates of various Euro countries (updated 3/26/2016) 2 Short term history of interest rates of various Euro countries 3 Detail Short term history of interest rates of various Euro countries 4Detail Short term history of interest rates of various Euro countries 4 Development of the European Migration avalanche (UN data) 5 Development of the European Migration avalanche (log scale, projections) 6Development of the European Migration avalanche (log scale, projections) 6 European Migration avalanche , annotated with events 7 Cross Balkan Migration developments, since October 2015 8 Cross Balkan Migration developments, detailed, since February 2016 9 AfD vote in Germany 10 4/1/2016 genauer 1
  • 4. 10-yr interest rate for selected Euro bonds (lines are SIMPLE model)Germany 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Interestrate[%] Netherlands Portugal Ireland Greece 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Interestrate[%] Greece Germany France Italy 0.0% 0.5% 6/30/2012 8/31/2012 10/31/2012 12/31/2012 2/28/2013 4/30/2013 6/30/2013 8/31/2013 10/31/2013 12/31/2013 2/28/2014 4/30/2014 6/30/2014 8/31/2014 10/31/2014 12/31/2014 2/28/2015 4/30/2015 6/30/2015 8/31/2015 10/31/2015 12/31/2015 2/29/2016 4/30/2016 6/30/2016 Interestrate[%] Spain Netherlands Portugal Ireland 6/30/2012 8/31/2012 10/31/2012 12/31/2012 2/28/2013 4/30/2013 6/30/2013 8/31/2013 10/31/2013 12/31/2013 2/28/2014 4/30/2014 6/30/2014 8/31/2014 10/31/2014 12/31/2014 2/28/2015 4/30/2015 6/30/2015 8/31/2015 10/31/2015 12/31/2015 2/29/2016 4/30/2016 6/30/2016 Ireland Greece Fit until 2/28/2016, Portugal left the noise corridor 1/31/2016, 4/1/2016 genauer 4 Fit until 2/28/2016, Portugal left the noise corridor 1/31/2016, directing for a month to a Greek spiral
  • 7. 1/26/15 Tsipras dissolves GR camps 10/16/15 Hungarian / croat fence completed 3/5/15 Kammenos debt junctim 10/19/15 Merkel visits Erdogan3/5/15 Kammenos debt junctim 10/19/15 Merkel visits Erdogan 5/7/15 de Maiziere 450 000 prediction 10/25/15 Balkan Mini Summit (Merkel) 6/22/15 Greece Euro summit 10/28/15 Austrian Fence started 6/30/15 Hungarian/Serb Fence start 11/11/15 Slovenian Fence started6/30/15 Hungarian/Serb Fence start 11/11/15 Slovenian Fence started 7/13/15 Greece Euro summit 11/29/15 Macedonian fence start 8/19/15 de Maiziere 800 000 prediction 1/20/16 Austrian quota 37500 / year 8/24/15 German internal memo 1/22/16 Austrian Fence finished8/24/15 German internal memo 1/22/16 Austrian Fence finished 8/25/15 BAMF twitter 4:30 am 2/18/16 Austria quota 80 / day 8/26/15 Begin of Russian deployment to Syria 2/22/16 Macedonia border closure Hungarian / Austrian trains to 8/31/15 Hungarian / Austrian trains to Germany 2/22/16 Syria cessastion of hostilities 9/5/15 Merkel/Faymann/orban decision to take migrants in Hungary 2/24/16 Austrian Balkan Summit, only Syrians and Iraqis9/5/15 Hungary 2/24/16 and Iraqis 9/11/15 Merkel selfies with migrants 3/6/16 Macedonian 320 km fence finished 9/13/15 German border controls started 3/6/16 Merkel against "Balkan closed" Hungarian/ Serb fence 9/14/15 Hungarian/ Serb fence complete 3/7/16 EU Turkey summit 9/16/15 Horgos riot 3/9/16 Slovenian border closed 9/18/15 Hungarian/ Croat fence started 3/20/16 Turkey cutoff 4/1/2016 genauer 7 10/13/15 Syrian Archbishop supports Putin /Assad 3/31/16 today
  • 8. Development of Migrant Streams across the BalkanDevelopment of Migrant Streams across the Balkan 4/1/2016 genauer 8
  • 9. Detailed development of Migrant streams across the Balkan: Austrian / Macedonian border closures trigger strong decay ofAustrian / Macedonian border closures trigger strong decay of Greek Island arrivals 4/1/2016 genauer 9
  • 10. AfD vote in Germany 4/1/2016 genauer 10