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Hazard, vulnerability, risk

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Md Asif Hasan
Md Asif Hasan

This document was submitted as an assignment as a part of the partial fulfillment of my master's degree.

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Assignment on “Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk” Submitted by Md. Asif Hasan Roll: SH-037 Date: August 28, 2019
Definitions of Hazard, Vulnerability, Risk Hazard: It is any substance, phenomenon or situation, which has the potential to cause disruption or damage to people, their property, their services and their environment. It is the the threat of a stress or perturbation to a system and what it values. Causal chain of hazard development Human Needs: Nutrition Human Wants: Dietary preference Choice of Means: Cropping system Initiating Events: Drought Intermediate Events: Crop failure Outcome: Household food scarcity Exposure: Hunger of household members Consequence: Morbidity, Loss of livelihood Consequence: Death Modify Wants: Alter choice of foods Modify Means: Choose drought crops Cope with Event: Irrigate Cope with Event: Replant Cope with Outcome: Sell assets, buy food Block Exposure: Migrate to find food Mitigate Consequence: Reduce activity Mitigate Consequence: Emergency relief, recovery, rehabilitation Vulnerability: Vulnerability is a concept which describes factors or constraints of an economic, social, physical or geographic nature, which reduce the ability to prepare for and cope with the impact of hazards. It represents the degree to which a person, system or unit is likely to experience harm due to exposure to perturbations or stresses. Categories of Vulnerabilities- • Hazard-specific: a characteristic which makes the element concerned susceptible to the force/s or impact of a hazard. The geo-physical and locational attributes of the element/s concerned are considered in this category. Based on the present-knowledge of the distribution and frequency of hazards, a community or country may be threatened by specific hazards. • Setting-specific: this is concerned with the prevailing socio-economic arrangement of the area concerned as to whether it is predominantly rural or urban. There are inherent setting characteristics that may be common to both as well as exclusive to each which contribute to the general susceptibility of the area. Characteristics of Vulnerabilities- ✓ Concentrations and Crowdedness - the three aspects are crowdedness and disease; crowdedness and buildings; crowdedness and resource base. ✓ Numbers of Peoples and Activities - the two aspect of this condition are Technologies and the Management System. ✓ Proximity to Man-made Hazards - the aspects considered are Technological hazards, Economic hazards, and Social Hazards Factors Contributing to Vulnerability- ➢ Interdependency of Lifelines – Major lifelines of the urban area are dependent on each other to function effectively. This interdependency is a factor that may contribute to the area’s vulnerability.
➢ Social and Organizational Dimension– The existing arrangement of a society regarding relationships of individuals, groups and institutions may create adverse situations that weakens these elements’ capabilities to face or withstand hazards and contribute instead to the intensifying of the effects. ➢ Attitudinal and Motivational Dimension– The prevalent worldview of the society or certain groups within society may contribute to a passive or non-active stance regarding the disasters that beset the area. PROGRESSION OF VULNERABILITY ROOT CAUSES  DYNAMIC PRESSURES  UNSAFE CONDITIONS  DISASTERS  HAZARDS Limited access to Lack of Fragile physical environment Earthquake • Resources • Institutions • Dangerous locations RISK • Structures • Training • Unprotected structures Wind storm • Power • Skills = • Investment Fragile local economy Flooding Ideologies • Markets • Livelihoods at risk HAZARD • Political systems • Press freedom • Low income Volcano • Economic systems • Civil society + Vulnerable society Landslide Macro-forces • Groups at risk VULNERAB ILITY Drought • Population growth • Little capacity to cope • Urbanisation Virus and pest • Arms expenditure Public actions • Debt repayment • Lack of preparedness Heat wave • Deforestation • Endemic disease • Soil degradation Source: Blaikie et al. (1994).
Concepts of Vulnerability: Source: Kasperson, et al. Risk: is the probability that negative consequences may arise when hazards interact with vulnerable areas, people, property, and environment. It is a concept which describes a potential set of consequences that may arise from a given set of circumstances. It is the conditional probability and magnitude of harm attendant on exposure to a perturbation or stress. Concepts of the Risk and its Analysis: • Risk is a combination of the interaction of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, which can be represented by the three sides of a triangle. • If any one of these sides increases, the area of the triangle increases, hence the amount of risk also increases. • If any one of the sides reduces, the risk reduces. • If we can eliminate one side there is no risk.
Difference Between Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Hazard Vulnerability Risk Hazard : potential threat to humans and their welfare + vulnerability : exposure and susceptibility to losses = risk : probability of hazard occurrence disaster : realization of a risk

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Hazard, vulnerability, risk

  • 1. Assignment on “Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk” Submitted by Md. Asif Hasan Roll: SH-037 Date: August 28, 2019
  • 2. Definitions of Hazard, Vulnerability, Risk Hazard: It is any substance, phenomenon or situation, which has the potential to cause disruption or damage to people, their property, their services and their environment. It is the the threat of a stress or perturbation to a system and what it values. Causal chain of hazard development Human Needs: Nutrition Human Wants: Dietary preference Choice of Means: Cropping system Initiating Events: Drought Intermediate Events: Crop failure Outcome: Household food scarcity Exposure: Hunger of household members Consequence: Morbidity, Loss of livelihood Consequence: Death Modify Wants: Alter choice of foods Modify Means: Choose drought crops Cope with Event: Irrigate Cope with Event: Replant Cope with Outcome: Sell assets, buy food Block Exposure: Migrate to find food Mitigate Consequence: Reduce activity Mitigate Consequence: Emergency relief, recovery, rehabilitation Vulnerability: Vulnerability is a concept which describes factors or constraints of an economic, social, physical or geographic nature, which reduce the ability to prepare for and cope with the impact of hazards. It represents the degree to which a person, system or unit is likely to experience harm due to exposure to perturbations or stresses. Categories of Vulnerabilities- • Hazard-specific: a characteristic which makes the element concerned susceptible to the force/s or impact of a hazard. The geo-physical and locational attributes of the element/s concerned are considered in this category. Based on the present-knowledge of the distribution and frequency of hazards, a community or country may be threatened by specific hazards. • Setting-specific: this is concerned with the prevailing socio-economic arrangement of the area concerned as to whether it is predominantly rural or urban. There are inherent setting characteristics that may be common to both as well as exclusive to each which contribute to the general susceptibility of the area. Characteristics of Vulnerabilities- ✓ Concentrations and Crowdedness - the three aspects are crowdedness and disease; crowdedness and buildings; crowdedness and resource base. ✓ Numbers of Peoples and Activities - the two aspect of this condition are Technologies and the Management System. ✓ Proximity to Man-made Hazards - the aspects considered are Technological hazards, Economic hazards, and Social Hazards Factors Contributing to Vulnerability- ➢ Interdependency of Lifelines – Major lifelines of the urban area are dependent on each other to function effectively. This interdependency is a factor that may contribute to the area’s vulnerability.
  • 3. ➢ Social and Organizational Dimension– The existing arrangement of a society regarding relationships of individuals, groups and institutions may create adverse situations that weakens these elements’ capabilities to face or withstand hazards and contribute instead to the intensifying of the effects. ➢ Attitudinal and Motivational Dimension– The prevalent worldview of the society or certain groups within society may contribute to a passive or non-active stance regarding the disasters that beset the area. PROGRESSION OF VULNERABILITY ROOT CAUSES  DYNAMIC PRESSURES  UNSAFE CONDITIONS  DISASTERS  HAZARDS Limited access to Lack of Fragile physical environment Earthquake • Resources • Institutions • Dangerous locations RISK • Structures • Training • Unprotected structures Wind storm • Power • Skills = • Investment Fragile local economy Flooding Ideologies • Markets • Livelihoods at risk HAZARD • Political systems • Press freedom • Low income Volcano • Economic systems • Civil society + Vulnerable society Landslide Macro-forces • Groups at risk VULNERAB ILITY Drought • Population growth • Little capacity to cope • Urbanisation Virus and pest • Arms expenditure Public actions • Debt repayment • Lack of preparedness Heat wave • Deforestation • Endemic disease • Soil degradation Source: Blaikie et al. (1994).
  • 4. Concepts of Vulnerability: Source: Kasperson, et al. Risk: is the probability that negative consequences may arise when hazards interact with vulnerable areas, people, property, and environment. It is a concept which describes a potential set of consequences that may arise from a given set of circumstances. It is the conditional probability and magnitude of harm attendant on exposure to a perturbation or stress. Concepts of the Risk and its Analysis: • Risk is a combination of the interaction of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, which can be represented by the three sides of a triangle. • If any one of these sides increases, the area of the triangle increases, hence the amount of risk also increases. • If any one of the sides reduces, the risk reduces. • If we can eliminate one side there is no risk.
  • 5. Difference Between Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Hazard Vulnerability Risk Hazard : potential threat to humans and their welfare + vulnerability : exposure and susceptibility to losses = risk : probability of hazard occurrence disaster : realization of a risk