The document outlines the key concepts and methods of forecasting covered in Chapter 4 of an operations management textbook. It discusses forecasting time horizons, types of forecasts, qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, and specific quantitative time-series and associative forecasting methods like moving averages, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis. The document aims to help students understand the strategic importance of forecasting and how to develop forecasts using various techniques.
The document outlines the key concepts and methods for short-term scheduling. It discusses scheduling issues like forward versus backward scheduling and scheduling criteria. It also covers scheduling processes for process-focused facilities and the use of tools like input-output control, Gantt charts, and the assignment method to schedule jobs and resources in the short term. The learning objectives focus on explaining short-term scheduling relationships, applying scheduling tools and techniques, and using methods like Johnson's rule and finite capacity scheduling.
The document outlines a chapter on managing quality from an operations management textbook. It includes sections on defining quality, the implications of quality, international quality standards like ISO 9000 and ISO14000. Total quality management concepts are discussed including continuous improvement, Six Sigma, and tools of TQM. The role of inspections in quality control is also addressed. The learning objectives are provided which cover defining quality, explaining quality strategies and tools.
The document outlines the key topics in Chapter 7 of an operations management textbook, which discusses process strategy. It covers four main process strategies - process focus, repetitive focus, product focus, and mass customization focus. For each strategy, it describes the characteristics including facilities organization, product flows, employee skills required, and comparisons of the strategies. It also discusses tools for process analysis and design, as well as new production technologies. The overall chapter aims to help students understand different process strategies and how to design effective production processes.
This document outlines the key concepts and steps for statistical process control using control charts. It discusses control charts for variables, which use x-charts to monitor central tendency and R-charts to monitor dispersion. The document explains how to set control limits for these charts using factors from tables, and the importance of using both charts together. It also briefly introduces control charts for attributes and concepts like process capability. The overall goal is to distinguish natural from assignable causes of variation.
The document outlines a chapter about the design of goods and services. It discusses key topics like product strategy options, product life cycles, product development, and defining products. The learning objectives are to understand concepts such as the product life cycle, product development systems, time-based competition, and how products and services are defined. It also provides examples of companies that implement different product strategies.
The document outlines the process of material requirements planning (MRP) which involves determining gross requirements by working backwards from a master production schedule, accounting for bills of materials, lead times, and offsetting requirements by lead times to determine the necessary timing and quantities of orders. MRP provides a structure and process for planning dependent demand across a company based on end item requirements, component relationships, and timing constraints. The example shows how MRP is used to generate a gross requirements plan by exploding bills of materials levels and accounting for different item lead times.
The document outlines concepts related to Just-in-Time (JIT) and lean operations, including:
1) JIT aims to have materials arrive where and when needed to eliminate waste using techniques like partnerships between suppliers and purchasers, small lot sizes, and reduced setup times.
2) The Toyota Production System emphasizes removing variability and waste through continuous improvement, respect for employees, and standard work practices.
3) Implementing JIT, TPS, and lean concepts can improve a company's throughput and competitiveness by exposing problems, reducing costs and inventory, and improving quality.
The document discusses maintenance and reliability in operations management. It outlines key topics like improving individual components, providing redundancy, implementing preventive maintenance, and increasing repair capabilities. The document uses the example of Orlando Utilities Commission, which takes its power plants offline for weeks of maintenance each year and overhauls systems every three years to complete over 1,800 tasks, to illustrate the strategic importance of maintenance and reliability.
This document provides an overview of operations management. It defines operations management as the set of activities that creates value by transforming inputs into outputs in the form of goods and services. It discusses the essential functions of production/operations, marketing, and finance/accounting in organizations. Key decisions for operations managers are also outlined, including design of goods/services, quality management, capacity and process design, inventory management and scheduling. The document traces the history and evolution of operations management concepts.
This document outlines the key topics in a chapter on supply chain management. It begins with an overview of Darden Restaurants as a global company case study. It then discusses the strategic importance of supply chains and how supply chain decisions impact different business strategies. Several supply chain strategies are presented, along with issues in global and integrated supply chains. The document also covers supply chain economics, vendor selection processes, logistics management, and metrics for measuring supply chain performance.
The document outlines factors that affect location decisions for companies. It discusses seven major factors including labor productivity, exchange rates, costs, political risks, proximity to markets/suppliers/competitors, and methods for evaluating location alternatives such as the factor-rating method, locational break-even analysis, and center-of-gravity method. The document uses examples from FedEx and various industries to illustrate key concepts in strategic facility location planning.
This document outlines the key topics in operations management layout strategies. It begins with an overview of McDonald's innovations in layout design over the years. The strategic importance of layout decisions is discussed as well as considerations for good layout design such as material handling, capacity, and flows. Different types of layout strategies are also summarized, including office, retail, warehouse, project/fixed position, process-oriented, work cell, and repetitive/product-oriented layouts. Specific examples and key issues are provided for each type.
The document outlines key concepts related to material requirements planning (MRP) and enterprise resource planning (ERP). It discusses MRP concepts like the master production schedule, bills of materials, lead times, and gross and net requirements planning. It also covers extensions of MRP like MRP II and closed-loop MRP. Finally, it introduces enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems and their advantages and disadvantages.
This document provides an overview of supply chain management strategies. It discusses the strategic importance of supply chains and compares various supply chain strategies including: negotiating with many suppliers versus long-term partnering with few suppliers; vertical integration; keiretsu networks; and virtual companies. It also covers supply chain economics, ethics, and how supply chain decisions impact different business strategies like low-cost, response, and differentiation.
The document outlines concepts related to capacity planning, including:
1. It defines design capacity, effective capacity, and utilization, and provides an example to calculate these metrics for a bakery.
2. It discusses different approaches to managing capacity, such as leading or lagging demand, and making incremental vs. one-time capacity expansions.
3. It introduces break-even analysis as a technique to evaluate capacity alternatives by finding the point where total costs equal total revenue. Key variables in the analysis include fixed costs, variable costs, price, and production volume.
This document outlines a presentation on outsourcing as a supply chain strategy. It includes an introduction to outsourcing, types of activities that can be outsourced, and strategies for evaluating outsourcing options. Key methodologies discussed include using factor rating to evaluate country and provider risks, and using break-even analysis to determine cost-effectiveness of outsourcing. Advantages, disadvantages, and ethical issues related to outsourcing are also covered.
This document provides an overview of operations management concepts related to the design of goods and services. It covers topics like product selection, new product development, product life cycles, quality function deployment for defining customer needs, and documents used in production like engineering drawings, bills of materials, and work orders. The document presents these concepts through text and diagrams/figures and provides learning objectives for understanding product design and development.
This document outlines the key topics to be covered in a chapter on operations strategy in a global environment. It includes an outline of subtopics, learning objectives, examples of Boeing's global suppliers, and definitions of mission and different strategies for achieving competitive advantage. The purpose is to provide students an overview of the concepts that will be discussed in the chapter.
This document discusses competitiveness, strategy, and productivity. It defines competitiveness as how effectively an organization meets customer wants and needs relative to competitors. Strategy is defined as plans for achieving organizational goals, while tactics are specific methods for accomplishing strategies. Productivity is a measure of output to input and is important for effective resource use. Factors that influence productivity include capital, technology, management methods, and other organizational factors. Measuring and improving productivity is key for organizational success.
The document summarizes key concepts about forecasting from the 8th edition of the textbook "Operations Management" by William J. Stevenson. It discusses definitions of forecasting, the importance and uses of forecasts in various business functions. Methods of forecasting include qualitative judgmental forecasts, quantitative time series analysis, and associative models using explanatory variables. Specific forecasting techniques covered include naive forecasts, moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend analysis, and regression. The document also addresses evaluating forecast accuracy and controlling forecasts.
This document outlines key concepts related to forecasting. It begins with an outline of topics to be covered, including forecasting time horizons, types of forecasts, qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, and time-series forecasting methods. It then discusses forecasting at Disney World as an example, describing their forecasting process and metrics. Finally, it defines forecasting and explains forecasting time horizons, distinguishing short, medium and long-range forecasts.
This document discusses forecasting methods used in operations management. It describes forecasting as predicting future events and underlying all business decisions regarding production, inventory, personnel and facilities. Short-term forecasts are up to 1 year and used for purchasing and scheduling, while medium forecasts are 3 months to 3 years for planning and budgeting. Long-term forecasts over 3 years guide new product planning and research. Qualitative methods use intuition for new situations while quantitative methods employ mathematics for stable, historical data situations. The document outlines various qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques.
This document provides an outline for a PowerPoint presentation on forecasting. It covers topics such as forecasting time horizons, the influence of product life cycles on forecasting, different types of forecasts, qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, and specific forecasting techniques like jury of executive opinion, Delphi method, sales force composite, and time series forecasting. The outline contains over 15 sections that will each be presented in more detail in the PowerPoint.
This document outlines key concepts related to forecasting, including:
- The three time horizons for forecasting: short, medium, and long range.
- Qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods such as jury of executive opinion, Delphi method, moving averages, and exponential smoothing.
- Components of time series data including trend, seasonality, cyclicality, and randomness.
- Steps in a forecasting system and challenges with producing accurate forecasts.
- How Disney uses forecasting across its global operations to inform decisions.
The document discusses planning tools and techniques. It defines plans, their dimensions and types. It also discusses why plans fail and identifies various planning areas within organizations. Forecasting and sales forecasting methods are defined, including jury of executive opinion, time series analysis and the Delphi method. Scheduling tools like Gantt charts and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) are also summarized, including their features and the steps to design a PERT network.
The document outlines a chapter on forecasting that discusses key topics like forecasting time horizons, the influence of product life cycles, and types of forecasts. It provides an example of how Tupperware uses forecasting across its global profit centers and aggregates forecasts. The chapter objectives are to define forecasting terms, describe quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods, and explain techniques like moving averages and regression analysis.
The document summarizes various planning tools and techniques discussed in Chapter 9. It outlines techniques for assessing the environment, such as environmental scanning, competitor intelligence, forecasting, and benchmarking. It also describes techniques for allocating resources, including budgets, Gantt charts, PERT network analysis, breakeven analysis, and linear programming. Finally, it discusses contemporary planning techniques like project management, scenario planning, and contingency planning.
The document outlines the objectives of strategic planning and strategy management. It discusses defining strategic planning and strategy, performing environmental analysis, establishing organizational direction, using tools like SWOT analysis and portfolio analysis to formulate strategy, implementing and controlling the strategic management process, and how strategic and tactical planning are coordinated. The key aspects of strategic planning and management are defined.
FedEx uses a central hub concept for its location strategy. This enables the company to service more locations with fewer aircraft by matching aircraft flights with package loads. It also reduces delays and mishandling by maintaining total control of packages from pickup to delivery. Some key factors that affect location decisions for companies include labor productivity, exchange rates, costs, political risks, proximity to markets and suppliers, and service strategies of competitors.
This document discusses the fundamentals of planning for organizations. It defines planning as setting objectives and strategies to achieve goals, and developing coordinated plans. Planning considers both ends (goals) and means (how to achieve them). The document outlines criticisms of formal planning and discusses how planning quality and implementation contribute more to performance than the extent of planning. It also describes different types of plans based on their focus, time horizon, intended use, and level of specificity. Management by objectives and analyzing the external environment are presented as important planning approaches.
Dessler ch 05-personnel planning and recruitingShamsil Arefin
This document summarizes a PowerPoint presentation on human resource management. The presentation covers personnel planning, recruitment, and selection. It discusses forecasting personnel needs, identifying internal candidates, and recruiting external candidates. Specific topics include employment planning, succession planning, using computers to forecast staffing, qualifying current employees, advertising job openings, using employment agencies, and measuring recruiting effectiveness. The overall process of recruitment and selection is presented as a series of steps to identify the best candidates for jobs.
This document discusses forecasting methods for predicting future demand. It covers qualitative methods like jury of executive opinion and quantitative methods like naive forecasting, moving averages, and exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing assigns weights to past demand that decrease exponentially, with the most recent demand weighted most heavily. The smoothing constant determines how quickly the weights decrease. Forecasting allows for better planning of human resources, capacity, and supply chain management.
This document discusses the manager's role in strategic human resource management. It provides an overview of strategic planning, including setting objectives, environmental scanning, and aligning HR strategies with business strategies. Key topics covered include the strategic management process, types of corporate and competitive strategies, and tools for strategic HRM like strategy maps, HR scorecards, and developing high-performance work systems. The document emphasizes the importance of linking HR policies and practices to organizational strategies and goals.
Job analysis is the process of determining the duties, skills, and requirements of a job. It involves collecting information on job duties, human behaviors, equipment used, performance standards, and human requirements. This information is then used to create job descriptions, which outline duties and responsibilities, and job specifications, which outline required education, skills, and other human qualifications. There are various quantitative and qualitative techniques used to conduct job analysis, including interviews, questionnaires, observation, and process charts. The goal is to accurately document existing jobs and use this information for recruitment, performance management, training, and other human resource functions.
Hospital and Healthcare System Strategic Planning and Financial ForecastingAxiom EPM
Given the level of uncertainty in the healthcare industry and all of the external factors that impact healthcare provider organizations today, strategic planning has become an increasingly complex function. The process is no longer a simple financial forecasting exercise. Instead, it has evolved into a more integrated financial and operational planning activity that touches the entire organization. The process of defining a multi-year financial forecast is now predicated on the modeling of individual business initiatives focused on cost reduction or revenue growth. These slides present four factors vital to establishing more agile strategic planning models. You'll learn techniques to incorporate financial and service line-based analytics to enable efficient ‘what-if’ modeling, scenario analysis and initiative-based modeling and tracking.
The Planning Maturity Curve (Palo Alto June 15)Ben Lamorte
The document discusses the Planning Maturity Curve, which outlines five levels of planning maturity: seat of the pants, budgeting, reporting, forecasting, and agile planning. It provides an overview of each level and the associated business value. The document also presents a case study of Pittsburgh Mercy Health System, which implemented agile planning principles including driver-based modeling, integrating actuals, and scenario analysis to improve planning. Guidelines are provided for organizations to progress toward agile planning, including moving from spreadsheets, reducing detail levels, implementing drivers, integrating actuals, and scenario analysis.
Forecasting involves making predictions about the future. In finance, forecasting is used by companies to estimate earnings or other data for subsequent periods. Traders and analysts use forecasts in valuation models, to time trades, and to identify trends. Forecasts are often predicated on historical data.
Equity analysts use forecasting to extrapolate how trends, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or unemployment, will change in the coming quarter or year. Finally, statisticians can utilize forecasting to analyze the potential impact of a change in business operations. For instance, data may be collected regarding the impact of customer satisfaction by changing business hours or the productivity of employees upon changing certain work conditions. These analysts then come up with earnings estimates that are often aggregated into a consensus figure. If actual earnings announcements miss the estimates, it can have a large impact on a company’s stock price.
Forecasting addresses a problem or set of data. Economists make assumptions regarding the situation being analyzed that must be established before the variables of the forecasting are determined. Based on the items determined, an appropriate data set is selected and used in the manipulation of information. The data is analyzed, and the forecast is determined. Finally, a verification period occurs when the forecast is compared to the actual results to establish a more accurate model for forecasting in the future.
The further out the forecast, the higher the chance that the estimate will be inaccurate.
Forecasting Techniques
In general, forecasting can be approached using qualitative techniques or quantitative ones. Quantitative methods of forecasting exclude expert opinions and utilize statistical data based on quantitative information. Quantitative forecasting models include time series methods, discounting, analysis of leading or lagging indicators, and econometric modeling that may try to ascertain causal links.
Qualitative Techniques
Qualitative forecasting models are useful in developing forecasts with a limited scope. These models are highly reliant on expert opinions and are most beneficial in the short term. Examples of qualitative forecasting models include interviews, on-site visits, market research, polls, and surveys that may apply the Delphi method (which relies on aggregated expert opinions).
Gathering data for qualitative analysis can sometimes be difficult or time-consuming. The CEOs of large companies are often too busy to take a phone call from a retail investor or show them around a facility. However, we can still sift through news reports and the text included in companies’ filings to get a sense of managers’ records, strategies, and philosophies.
Time Series Analysis
A time series analysis looks at historical data and how various variables have interacted with one another in the past. These statistical relationships are then extrapolated into the future to generate
Combining forecast from different models has shown to perform better than single forecast in most time series. To improve the quality of forecast we can go for combining forecast. We study the effect of decomposing a series into multiple components and performing forecasts on each component separately... The original series is decomposed into trend, seasonality and an irregular component for each series. The statistical methods such as ARIMA, Holt-Winter have been used to forecast these components. In this paper we focus on how the best models of one series can be applied to similar frequency pattern series for forecasting using association mining. The proposed method forecasted value has been compared with Holt Winter method and shown that the results are better than Holt Winter method
Exploring the risk factors associated with peb projects in lahore.Rizwan Khurram
This document summarizes a literature review on risk factors associated with pre-engineered building projects. It discusses risk identification and different categories of risk including design, finance, and management. Under design category, it identifies several technical risks such as accidents on site, changes in design, errors in drawings, difficulty in construction, equipment failure, shortage of electricity, material theft, and disputes. The finance category includes risks related to financial issues. The management category discusses risks associated with project management.
Information Technology Project Management - part 11Rizwan Khurram
This document discusses project risk management techniques. It covers planning risk management, identifying risks, performing qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, planning risk responses, and controlling risks. Qualitative techniques include probability/impact matrices and top ten risk tracking. Quantitative techniques include decision tree analysis, simulation, and sensitivity analysis. The goal of risk management is to minimize negative risks and maximize opportunities to help improve project success.
Information Technology Project Management - part 10Rizwan Khurram
The document discusses communications management for IT projects. It covers planning communications, managing communications through various technologies and media, controlling communications, and improving communications. Some key points include developing communication skills, running effective meetings, using templates to standardize communications, and how collaboration technologies can both help and hinder project communications if not used properly. The goal of project communications is to ensure stakeholders receive necessary information throughout the project life cycle.
Information Technology Project Management - part 09Rizwan Khurram
The document discusses human resource management for IT projects. It covers defining project human resource management and its processes. Some key topics include planning human resource management, acquiring and developing project teams, motivation theories, and tools for managing project teams. The document provides an overview of considering people and human resource management as critical factors for project success.
Information Technology Project Management - part 08Rizwan Khurram
This document provides an overview of key concepts in project quality management for information technology projects. It discusses defining and planning for quality, quality assurance and control processes, quality tools and techniques like the Seven Basic Tools of Quality and Six Sigma. It also covers quality standards, testing, and how quality relates to project success and failures. The document is from the 7th edition of the textbook "Information Technology Project Management".
Information Technology Project Management - part 07Rizwan Khurram
This document summarizes key points from the textbook "Information Technology Project Management, Seventh Edition". It discusses the importance of project cost management and describes the processes of planning cost management, estimating costs, determining budgets, and controlling costs. It emphasizes that IT projects often experience cost overruns and provides examples of government IT project failures that exceeded budgets by billions of dollars. The document also defines important cost management terms and outlines techniques for creating cost estimates and budgets.
Information Technology Project Management - part 05Rizwan Khurram
This document provides an overview of scope management for IT projects. It discusses planning scope management, collecting requirements, defining scope, creating a work breakdown structure (WBS), validating scope, and controlling scope. A WBS decomposes project deliverables into smaller components to aid in planning, scheduling, resource allocation, and change management. Maintaining a WBS dictionary with detailed descriptions of each item is important. Scope management aims to formally accept completed project deliverables and control any changes to the agreed-upon scope.
Information Technology Project Management - part 04Rizwan Khurram
This document provides an overview of the 7th edition of the textbook "Information Technology Project Management". It describes the following key points:
1. The textbook covers overall project integration management frameworks, strategic planning processes, project selection methods, developing project charters and management plans, project execution, monitoring and controlling projects, integrated change control processes, and closing projects.
2. It emphasizes that project managers must coordinate all knowledge areas throughout a project's life cycle to achieve integration.
3. Topics include developing project charters to formally initiate projects, creating comprehensive project management plans, and directing and managing project work according to plans.
Information Technology Project Management - part 02Rizwan Khurram
This document discusses key topics from the textbook "Information Technology Project Management, Seventh Edition" including: the systems view of project management and how it applies to IT projects; understanding organizations and their structures/cultures; the importance of stakeholder management and top management commitment; project phases and life cycles; attributes and diversity of IT projects; and recent trends like globalization, outsourcing, virtual teams, and agile project management.
Information Technology Project Management - part 01Rizwan Khurram
This document provides an overview of the 7th edition of the textbook "Information Technology Project Management". It discusses key topics covered in the textbook such as the history and growth of project management as a profession, the role of the project manager, challenges in IT project management, and best practices for project success. The textbook aims to explain fundamental concepts in project management and discuss their application to information technology projects.
Information Technology Project Management - part 12Rizwan Khurram
The document describes the key processes involved in project procurement management: planning procurements, conducting procurements by obtaining seller responses and selecting sellers, controlling procurements by managing relationships and monitoring performance, and closing procurements by completing contracts. It discusses determining procurement needs, preparing procurement documents, soliciting bids, evaluating bids, and awarding and administering contracts. The goal is to acquire necessary goods and services from outside sources to complete project tasks.
The document summarizes Lord Macaulay's address to the British Parliament in 1833 outlining his agenda for changing the education system in British India. Macaulay proposed replacing India's ancient education system and culture with an English system in order to create a class of Indians who would be "interpreters between the British and millions of Indians" but would be English in their tastes, opinions, morals and intellect. This would allow Britain to maintain long-term control over India by dominating the population mentally through creating a privileged Western-educated class. The document reflects on how Pakistan inherited this system and it still influences Pakistanis to see foreign/English culture as superior, damaging self-esteem and independence. It questions if it is
The document outlines the activities and assignments for a course on strategic delivery of change. It includes:
- Two individual assignments focusing on changes in the student's organization and leadership.
- Two case studies on types of metaphors and the nature of change.
- Three class presentations on changes in Pakistan, force field analysis, and a failed change project.
- A final group project decided by each group regarding change management in their own organization.
- A final exam.
It provides updates on the due dates for assignments and presentations, including the final semester project presentations scheduled for January 5th and a tentative final exam date of January 12th.
three phase of change,management of complex change,organizational change, Kotter eight steps, Bullock and batten, planned change,machine political organism, beckhar and harris change formula organism, kotter eight step with example
Managers have several approaches and interventions available to help facilitate organizational change. From a behavioral perspective, managers must align rewards and performance management with the desired changes. Cognitively, managers can link goals to increase motivation for change. Considering human psychology, managers should understand individuals' emotional responses to change, address underlying issues, and foster an environment where people can grow. Ultimately, reducing learning anxiety through involvement, training, and support helps ensure changes succeed where simply increasing pressure to change may backfire.
The document provides an introduction to change management. It discusses the inevitability of change and how organizations must adapt to continuous change or risk failure. It categorizes different types of changes that organizations face, such as strategic, leadership, cultural, cost-cutting, and process changes. It also summarizes common barriers to change and models for managing the change process successfully. Overall, the document emphasizes that change is constant and that organizations must be prepared to change quickly in order to survive.
A mission statement describes the current purpose and objectives of an organization, while a vision statement describes where the organization aims to be in the future. A mission statement tells an organization's reason for existing in less than 30 seconds and provides focus, while a vision statement inspires and guides the organization towards its goals. Core competencies are unique skills and capabilities that provide competitive advantage and are difficult for competitors to imitate.
Total employee involvement is a system that directly involves all employees in contributing to organizational success by giving them responsibilities. It allows everyone to be deeply involved in problem solving, continuous improvement, and finding new opportunities using their skills and knowledge. Key aspects of total employee involvement include motivating employees through teamwork, training, recognition and rewards, feedback, and empowering employees to make decisions.