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IEA Net Zero Emissions 2050 - Norway version (updated)

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Glen Peters
Glen Peters

The document summarizes key findings from the International Energy Agency's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario, including: 1) The IEA scenario reaches net zero fossil CO2 emissions by 2050, earlier than pathways consistent with 1.5°C warming assessed by the IPCC. 2) The IEA scenario uses less bioenergy with carbon capture and storage but more direct air capture with carbon storage than IPCC pathways. 3) For Norway, the IEA scenario shows oil declining faster than some IPCC scenarios through existing fields, gas production in line with IPCC ranges, and large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage. 4) The IEA sees opportunities for Norway in hydrogen

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IEA Net Zero Emissions 2050 NZE2050 Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway) #Klimafrokost: IEAs veikart for «netto null» i energisektoren (Remote, 21/05/2021)
Data: IEA NZE2050 Stated Policies Scenario
Data: IEA NZE2050 Announced Pledges Case
Data: IEA NZE2050 Net Zero Emissions 2050
Source: IEA NZE2050
IEA Net Zero Emissions 2050 - Norway version (updated)
Our new NZE Scenario should not be mistaken as the path to net- zero... Rather, it is a path…
How does the IEA compare with IPCC?
The IEA NZE2050 reaches net zero fossil CO2 emissions in 2050, which is much earlier than scenarios assessed by the IPCC that are consistent with 1.5°C with no or low temperature overshoot. Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Net Fossil CO2 emissions
Net emissions = Emissions (e.g., fossil fuels) + Removals (e.g., direct air capture)
The IEA has considerably less Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage (BECCS) than the IPCC assessed scenarios Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Carbon Dioxide Removal (BECCS)
The IEA uses a decent amount of Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (DACCS) than the IPCC assessed scenarios Very few IPCC assessed scenarios currently use DACCS, though the potential is significant. Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Carbon Dioxide Removal (DACCS)
Net emissions = (residual) emissions + removals The IPCC & IEA scenarios are very similar in the next decade, but differ in 2040-2050 as the IEA has less removals Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Residual fossil CO2 emissions
Key figures for Norway
Oil declines a little faster than many IPCC scenarios, though IEA makes the explicit point that this can be met from existing fields (including new investments in existing fields), but no new fields Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Oil
Gas is very much in the range of many IPCC scenarios, though with large uncertainties. IEA makes the explicit point that this can be met from existing fields (including new investments in existing fields), but no new fields Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Gas
Investments in new fields stop (the new investments in 2020-2030 are already committed). Investments in existing fields continue. Investments in 2015-2020 already lower than 2010-2015. Data: IEA NZE2050 Oil and gas investments
The IEA requires large-scale CCS through to 2050, though a little less than IPCC. Building five CCS facilities of size 1MtCO2 (Sleipner) every week from now to 2050 gives 7.5GtCO2/yr in 2050 Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Carbon Capture & Storage (longship)
Most CCS goes to industry and fuel supply (e.g. hydrogen), very little in electricity generation Data: IEA NZE2050 Carbon Capture & Storage (longship)
The IEA is relatively high on hydrogen. This is an opportunity for Norway (gas with CCS or electricity) The hydrogen produced by gas is already included in the declining use of gas overall. Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Hydrogen
A sizeable share of fossil gas is used to produce hydrogen, though over time electricity dominates The use of hydrogen is distributed across sectors, but mainly transport and industry (not electricity) Data: IEA NZE2050 Hydrogen
The IEA is sees more solar and wind than most scenarios assessed by the IPCC Overall, a similar amount of electricity from solar and wind in 2050 Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Solar and Wind
Some key messages
• The IEA has dealt with many criticisms of IPCC scenarios – Carbon dioxide removal (not really carbon capture & storage) • We have the tools – All the tools are in the market to reduce emissions by 2030 – From 2030 to 2050 about half technologies under development • Lots of jobs and mitigation can boost the economy • There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply • Cooperation is important, equity challenges, just transition Some key messages
Data: IEA NZE2050 Remains a significant ‘emissions gap’
Peters_Glen cicero.oslo.no cicerosenterforklimaforskning glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no Glen Peters

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IEA Net Zero Emissions 2050 - Norway version (updated)

  • 1. IEA Net Zero Emissions 2050 NZE2050 Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway) #Klimafrokost: IEAs veikart for «netto null» i energisektoren (Remote, 21/05/2021)
  • 2. Data: IEA NZE2050 Stated Policies Scenario
  • 4. Data: IEA NZE2050 Net Zero Emissions 2050
  • 7. Our new NZE Scenario should not be mistaken as the path to net- zero... Rather, it is a path…
  • 8. How does the IEA compare with IPCC?
  • 9. The IEA NZE2050 reaches net zero fossil CO2 emissions in 2050, which is much earlier than scenarios assessed by the IPCC that are consistent with 1.5°C with no or low temperature overshoot. Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Net Fossil CO2 emissions
  • 10. Net emissions = Emissions (e.g., fossil fuels) + Removals (e.g., direct air capture)
  • 11. The IEA has considerably less Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage (BECCS) than the IPCC assessed scenarios Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Carbon Dioxide Removal (BECCS)
  • 12. The IEA uses a decent amount of Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (DACCS) than the IPCC assessed scenarios Very few IPCC assessed scenarios currently use DACCS, though the potential is significant. Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Carbon Dioxide Removal (DACCS)
  • 13. Net emissions = (residual) emissions + removals The IPCC & IEA scenarios are very similar in the next decade, but differ in 2040-2050 as the IEA has less removals Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Residual fossil CO2 emissions
  • 14. Key figures for Norway
  • 15. Oil declines a little faster than many IPCC scenarios, though IEA makes the explicit point that this can be met from existing fields (including new investments in existing fields), but no new fields Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Oil
  • 16. Gas is very much in the range of many IPCC scenarios, though with large uncertainties. IEA makes the explicit point that this can be met from existing fields (including new investments in existing fields), but no new fields Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Gas
  • 17. Investments in new fields stop (the new investments in 2020-2030 are already committed). Investments in existing fields continue. Investments in 2015-2020 already lower than 2010-2015. Data: IEA NZE2050 Oil and gas investments
  • 18. The IEA requires large-scale CCS through to 2050, though a little less than IPCC. Building five CCS facilities of size 1MtCO2 (Sleipner) every week from now to 2050 gives 7.5GtCO2/yr in 2050 Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Carbon Capture & Storage (longship)
  • 19. Most CCS goes to industry and fuel supply (e.g. hydrogen), very little in electricity generation Data: IEA NZE2050 Carbon Capture & Storage (longship)
  • 20. The IEA is relatively high on hydrogen. This is an opportunity for Norway (gas with CCS or electricity) The hydrogen produced by gas is already included in the declining use of gas overall. Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Hydrogen
  • 21. A sizeable share of fossil gas is used to produce hydrogen, though over time electricity dominates The use of hydrogen is distributed across sectors, but mainly transport and industry (not electricity) Data: IEA NZE2050 Hydrogen
  • 22. The IEA is sees more solar and wind than most scenarios assessed by the IPCC Overall, a similar amount of electricity from solar and wind in 2050 Data: IEA NZE2050; IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Solar and Wind
  • 24. • The IEA has dealt with many criticisms of IPCC scenarios – Carbon dioxide removal (not really carbon capture & storage) • We have the tools – All the tools are in the market to reduce emissions by 2030 – From 2030 to 2050 about half technologies under development • Lots of jobs and mitigation can boost the economy • There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply • Cooperation is important, equity challenges, just transition Some key messages
  • 25. Data: IEA NZE2050 Remains a significant ‘emissions gap’