Indian Three Wheeler Market Analysis 2020
Despite short-term headwinds, 3W industry is expected to grow at a moderate volume CAGR of single digit figure over the next five years. The domestic 3W passenger segment will be benefitted from product up-gradation (2-stroke to 4-stroke, Petrol/Diesel to LPG/CNG) and opening of fresh permits by the state governments. Piaggio has also entered urban 3W space with the launch of their APE City model which run on cleaner fuel like LPG/CNG. The domestic 3W goods segment continues to benefit from its favorable operating economics despite stiff competition from 4W Small Commercial Vehicles (SCVs). Lastly, 3W exports are expected to remain robust due to rapid economic growth, rising disposable incomes, evolving travel & consumption patterns, improving road infrastructure, increasing demand for motorized transportation and inadequate public transport systems in target emerging markets like African, Latin American & South Asian countries. TVS has been making steady inroads in this segment with a exponential growth in the last financial year. Overall, the long-term sales growth is expected to be the highest in the exports segment, followed by that in the passenger carrier segment and the lowest in the goods carrier segment (due to intense competition from the SCV segment). Apart from the domestic demand, India has also emerged as a major export hub for 3Ws with presence in some of the South Asian, African and Latin American markets that are replicating Indian 3W story with rising disposable incomes but inadequate public transport systems. Overall, the 3W industry has witnessed relatively healthy CAGR volume growth driven by moderate domestic growth and robust exports growth. However, four-wheeled Small Commercial Vehicles (mainly Tata ACE in 2005-06) has altered the industry dynamics – especially for the cargo segment, considerably over the last few years. While high tonnage (0.75T and above) 3W cargo segment has already lost out to 4W SCVs that provide higher stability, safety, speed, space and style; SCVs are gaining popularity even in the lower tonnage (0.5T) Cargo and Passenger segments with introduction of some of the recently introduced smaller vehicles by CV OEMs. New segments & sub segments are emerging within SCVs with the success of Ashok Leyland Dost in the higher tonnage SCVs segment(Pickup trucks). While domestic 3W goods segment has degrown, SCVs have reported robust CAGR growth over the last few years. Besides, slowing economic growth, high inflation, increase in financing costs, rising fuel prices, absence of fresh permits by the state governments and overall high base has impacted domestic 3W passenger sales in FY13.
Indian Three Wheeler Market Analysis 2020
- 1. Indian Three wheeler Market Analysis 2020 Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis
- 2. Industry overview Despite short-term headwinds, 3W industry is expected to grow at a moderate volume CAGR of single digit figure over the next five years. The domestic 3W passenger segment will be benefitted from product up-gradation (2-stroke to 4-stroke, Petrol/Diesel to LPG/CNG) and opening of fresh permits by the state governments. Piaggio has also entered urban 3W space with the launch of their APE City model which run on cleaner fuel like LPG/CNG. The domestic 3W goods segment continues to benefit from its favorable operating economics despite stiff competition from 4W Small Commercial Vehicles (SCVs). Lastly, 3W exports are expected to remain robust due to rapid economic growth, rising disposable incomes, evolving travel & consumption patterns, improving road infrastructure, increasing demand for motorized transportation and inadequate public transport systems in target emerging markets like African, Latin American & South Asian countries. TVS has been making steady inroads in this segment with a exponential growth in the last financial year. Overall, the long-term sales growth is expected to be the highest in the exports segment, followed by that in the passenger carrier segment and the lowest in the goods carrier segment (due to intense competition from the SCV segment). Apart from the domestic demand, India has also emerged as a major export hub for 3Ws with presence in some of the South Asian, African and Latin American markets that are replicating Indian 3W story with rising disposable incomes but inadequate public transport systems. Overall, the 3W industry has witnessed relatively healthy CAGR volume growth driven by moderate domestic growth and robust exports growth. However, four-wheeled Small Commercial Vehicles (mainly Tata ACE in 2005-06) has altered the industry dynamics – especially for the cargo segment, considerably over the last few years. While high tonnage (0.75T and above) 3W cargo segment has already lost out to 4W SCVs that provide higher stability, safety, speed, space and style; SCVs are gaining popularity even in the lower tonnage (0.5T) Cargo and Passenger segments with introduction of some of the recently introduced smaller vehicles by CV OEMs. New segments & sub segments are emerging within SCVs with the success of Ashok Leyland Dost in the higher tonnage SCVs segment(Pickup trucks). While domestic 3W goods segment has degrown, SCVs have reported robust CAGR growth over the last few years. Besides, slowing economic growth, high inflation, increase in financing costs, rising fuel prices, absence of fresh permits by the state governments and overall high base has impacted domestic 3W passenger sales in FY13. Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis
- 3. Copyright ACG holds all copyrights of this analysis. It is forbidden to sell or publish in whole or in part without prior permission from ACG. This information does not constitute an offer to exchange or sell or an offer to exchange or buy any securities. Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis
- 4. Industry Overview FY 2012-13 Overview Overview: Export 441,118 359,613 406,260 300,473 + 8.58 % - 16.45 % 107,021 + 22.20% 97,173 - 9.20 % 2,140 Passenger Carrier FY 2011-12 Goods Carrier FY 2012-13 Passenger Carrier FY 2011-12 2,615 Goods Carrier FY 2012-13 Source: SIAM, ACG Passenger Segment is the driving volume in three-wheeler market, while export has recorded de-growth by a slight margin Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis
- 5. Three Wheeler Industry trend Segment Share FY 2012-13 12% 88% FY 2011-12 12% 88% FY 2010-09 15% 85% FY 2009-10 16% 84% FY 2008-09 17% 83% Goods Vehicle Passenger vehicle Goods carrier FY 2012-13 FY 2011-12 FY 2010-09 FY 2009-10 FY 2008-09 97% Passenger Carrier FY 2012-13 3% 98% FY 2011-12 2% 99% 99% 1% 1% 99% Domestic sales 1% 59% 53% 41% 47% FY 2010-09 71% 29% FY 2009-10 70% 30% FY 2008-09 Export 66% Domestic sales 34% Export Source: SIAM, ACG Passenger vehicle segment is having major share in 3 wheeler industry, it has grown more than 80% in the last 5 years. There is strong domestic market for 3W passenger vehicles and its export units are also more than goods segment. Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis 4
- 6. Growth Domestic and Export Growth- Domestic sales Growth- Export 28% 30% 22% 187% 11% 11% 21% 6% -4% FY 2011-12 9% -3% FY 2010-09 FY 2012-13 41% 20% -9% FY 2009-10 FY 2009-10 FY 2010-09 FY 2011-12 22% FY 2012-13 -35% Goods Passenger Goods Passenger Source: SIAM, ACG Domestic goods sales are continuously showing de growth since FY 2009-10 due to segment shift to four wheeler SCV like Tata ACE This segment was dominated by Piaggio 3W segment. Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis
- 7. OEM Sales Analysis Three wheeler* Market Share 538,291 513,281 600,000 19% 11% 40% 42% 40% 20% 500,000 -3% -1% 10% 36% 34% 5% -10% 0% 400,000 -20% 226,131 300,000 -40% 202,979 184,362 183,408 13% 12% 200,000 -60% 67,440 100,000 65,510 31,788 26,698 5%6% -91% 17,590 15,837 14,201 3%3% -80% 15,616 11 3%3% 0%0% 1 0 -100% Bajaj Piaggio M&M Atul Auto FY 2011-12 Scooters India FY 2012-13 TVS Force Total Bajaj Growth Piaggio M&M Atul Auto FY 2011-12 Scooters India TVS Force FY 2012-13 Source: SIAM, ACG Bajaj Auto is the market leader due to its strong position in passenger vehicle segment with a market share of 42% Gujrat based Atul Auto has notably registered 19% growth in FY 13. * Passenger & Goods Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis
- 8. Critical purchase criteria Purchase Decision Price Financing Secondary service network Passenger Comparison Re sale value Goods Overload Initial investment Finance Mileage Three wheeler Payload Safety Four wheeler Source: Purchase trends in India ACG report 2012 ACG found that in passenger segment financing of the vehicle is the most critical factor where Overload is the most critical factor for Good segment In urban transport. Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis
- 9. Contact Purchase Customized report: Arun Aravindan Customized Research - Global Market Senior Manager Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Phone - +91 9544061665 Email : arun.ka@autobei.com Website : www.autobei.com About Autobei Consulting Group (ACG): ‘Autobei Consulting Group - ACG’ is a management consulting group which has leveraged on its expertise and proprietary databases to provide "Customized Solutions" in areas such ‘Sales Analysis’, ‘Business Planning’, ‘Market assessment’ and ‘Project Feasibility’ on Global Commercial Vehicle Industry. We are capable of providing exclusively State wise, segment data like Tipper, Tractor and Haulage. With a strong network for primary data procurement, we can get any tailor made research reports ready within a short interval of time. ‘ACG’ also serve as a web-platform where one can find all the required information regarding Passenger vehicles, Commercial vehicle, two wheelers etc across the globe. We provide a Global Platform for Truck and Bus Manufacturers, Dealers, Vendors and Fleet Owners to come together and gather required information within seconds without jumping websites. Declaration: This publication contains information in summary form and is therefore intended for general guidance only. It is not intended to be a substitute for detailed research or the exercise of professional judgment. Neither ACG nor any other member of the organization can accept any responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. Autobei Consulting Group (ACG) Three wheeler Market Analysis