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1

International Marginal Tax Rates @ $100/bbl Market Price
                                                       Tax & Royalty Regimes
                               90%
                               80%
Marginal Tax Rate @ $100/bbl




                               70%
                               60%
                               50%
                               40%
                               30%
                               20%
                               10%
                               0%
                                     U.S. GOM   U.K.   Alberta   Thailand   Australia   Brazil   Norway   Alaska -
                                                                                                           ACES



                                                                                                                     1

2

A History of DNR Forecasts of Total Production
                                         between 2010 and 2020
                      3400
                                                                 PPT Passes
                      3200
                                                                                     ACES Passes
Millions of barrels




                      3000

                      2800

                      2600

                      2400

                      2200

                      2000
                             2002      2003       2004        2006            2007           2009

                                                Year of DNR Forecast

3

Dept of Natural Resources ANS Production Forecast
                                                         Before & After PPT (bbls/day)
                                     900,000
ANS Production Forecast (bbls/day)




                                     850,000
                                     800,000
                                     750,000
                                     700,000
                                     650,000
                                     600,000
                                     550,000
                                     500,000
                                     450,000
                                           2010      2011      2012      2013      2014       2015   2016     2017     2018      2019   2020

                                               May 2006 Forecast (last forecast before PPT)          Current Forecast (November 2009)



                                                                                                                                               3

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International Marginal Tax Rates (three graphs)

  • 1. International Marginal Tax Rates @ $100/bbl Market Price Tax & Royalty Regimes 90% 80% Marginal Tax Rate @ $100/bbl 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% U.S. GOM U.K. Alberta Thailand Australia Brazil Norway Alaska - ACES 1
  • 2. A History of DNR Forecasts of Total Production between 2010 and 2020 3400 PPT Passes 3200 ACES Passes Millions of barrels 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 Year of DNR Forecast
  • 3. Dept of Natural Resources ANS Production Forecast Before & After PPT (bbls/day) 900,000 ANS Production Forecast (bbls/day) 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 May 2006 Forecast (last forecast before PPT) Current Forecast (November 2009) 3