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It between magic and fashion

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Heinz Roggenkemper
Heinz Roggenkemper

This document provides a perspective on information technology (IT) by comparing it to both magic and fashion. It discusses examples of the "magic" of IT like Watson and advances in computing power. However, it argues that while IT transforms many things, its impacts are not always overwhelmingly positive and can have unintended consequences. The document also examines challenges around energy, education, healthcare, and intellectual property. It suggests augmentation through collaboration between humans and machines may provide hope. But the limits of Moore's Law and issues around intellectual property pose threats. Overall it offers a nuanced view of both the promises and limitations of information technology.

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IT - Between Magic and Fashion A Personal Perspective Heinz Roggenkemper AtelierSAP Conference – Orlando - May 12, 2013
The Magic SDXC Deep Blue/Kasparov The power of community and Open Source Examples: Reddit, Kaggle Watson/Jeopardy
Watson at Work
Watson at Work
Watson at Work
How Watson works
The Magic SDXC Deep Blue The power of community and Open Source Examples: Reddit, Kaggle Watson A two-year old with an iPad
What Do We Find in Magic? The power of roadmaps – Moore’s Law and beyond(?)
Law Of Accelerated Returns
What Do We Find in Magic? The power of roadmaps The capability to thoroughly master domains Community involvement Creating an accessible common layer on top of many domains Reaching everyone
Fashion The paperless office Virtual reality MOOC, 3D Printing, cashless society Sandy Hook Promise Innovation Initiative ‘A new group of Bay Area technology investors plans to back startup companies developing ‘smart gun’ Technologies that change everything (a list of 2005) AJAX, biogenerics, deep web search, HD Audio, hybrid cell phones, micro fuel cells,WiMax
What Do We Find in Fashion? Information technology will transform everything. The believe that something that is possible is inevitable. Everything needs information technology. ‘…given enough apps, all of humanities bugs are shallow’ (Evgeny Morozov) Moore’s Curse First mover’s advantage IT has mastered innovation
What About Innovation? First thought experiments Let us go back 200 years, put a leading scientist/engineer 100 year into the future, and expose him/her to the current knowledge James Watt Mathematics (real foundation), physics (Maxwell, quantum theory, relativity theory), biology (genetics), medicine (understanding of diseases, pharmaceuticals),energy (coal, oil, electricity),materials (alloys), chemical industry, transportation (railways, mass transit, cars, air planes), communication (telegraph, telephone, radio), photography, phonograph, movies Overwhelmed! Repeat for 100 years Thomas Alva Edison Substantial progress everywhere, but not many real breakthroughs (antibiotics, human genome, nuclear energy, computers, Internet, wireless) Impressed, but not overwhelmed
Second thought experiment Let us go back 100 years, and compare the change that a representative of a median income family would experience in the next 50 years electrical appliances (washing machine, refrigerator), in-door plumbing, central heating, cars, telephone, radio, TV, record players, compact Cassette (1963, that is a close one) Overwhelmed! Repeat for 50 years Everything is better, many things are digital, but not much is new (microwave, PCs, printers, cell phones, Internet access everywhere) Impressive, but not overwhelming
How Important Is IT? Impact on overall economy Median incomes over the last 20 years You can see computers everywhere except in productivity numbers China Property rights, enforceable contracts Technologies played a major role, and IT played a minor role Finance High-speed trading as an example for an arms race without social value
What Else Matters? Principle of diminishing returns Unintended consequences Quite often, the opposite of something true is also true. Power
The Big Challenges Energy/Climate Change 2050: carbon-free KWh at 50% of today’s cost (Bill Gates) Education ‘...I’ve had to come to the inevitable conclusion that the problem is not one that technology can hope to solve. What’s wrong with education cannot be fixed with technology. No amount of technology will make a dent. It’s a political problem. The problems are sociopolitical.’ Steve Jobs
The Big Challenges Energy/Climate Change 2050: carbon-free KWh at 50% of today’s cost (Bill Gates) Education Healthcare Nurses will be more important than technology Investment over consumption Science
A New Hope Augmentation
A New Hope - Augmentation Freestyle Chess (2005) Anyone could compete in teams with others or computers The result: ‘Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process.’ (Gary Kasparov in ‘The Chess Master and the Computer’)
A New Hope Augmentation Collaboration and new value chains Quirky New AI New platforms A deeper understanding of human behavior that includes evidence from cognitive psychology, evolutionary biology, and neurology.
The Empire Strikes Back The end of Moore’s law (around 2020) Software becomes/is more important than hardware Intellectual property Last year, for the first time, spending by Apple and Google on patent lawsuits and unusually big-dollar patent purchases exceeded spending on research and development of new products, according to public filings. (NY Times, Oct 7, 2012) Judge Posner’s ruling in an Apple/Motorola case (focusing on damage calculations) is encouraging, but is likely to be appealed and overturned.
No Jedis, it is just us.
References Tyler Cowen, The Great Stagnation, 2011 Richard Farson, Management of the Absurd, 1997 Andy Haldane, Financial Arms Races, 2012 Gary Kasparov, The Chess Master and the Computer, 2010 Daniel L. McFadden, The New Science of Pleasure, NBER Working Paper, Feb. 2013 Evgeny Morozov, To Save Everything, Click Here, 2013 Vaclav Smil, Creating the 20th Century, 2005

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It between magic and fashion

  • 1. IT - Between Magic and Fashion A Personal Perspective Heinz Roggenkemper AtelierSAP Conference – Orlando - May 12, 2013
  • 2. The Magic SDXC Deep Blue/Kasparov The power of community and Open Source Examples: Reddit, Kaggle Watson/Jeopardy
  • 7. The Magic SDXC Deep Blue The power of community and Open Source Examples: Reddit, Kaggle Watson A two-year old with an iPad
  • 8. What Do We Find in Magic? The power of roadmaps – Moore’s Law and beyond(?)
  • 10. What Do We Find in Magic? The power of roadmaps The capability to thoroughly master domains Community involvement Creating an accessible common layer on top of many domains Reaching everyone
  • 11. Fashion The paperless office Virtual reality MOOC, 3D Printing, cashless society Sandy Hook Promise Innovation Initiative ‘A new group of Bay Area technology investors plans to back startup companies developing ‘smart gun’ Technologies that change everything (a list of 2005) AJAX, biogenerics, deep web search, HD Audio, hybrid cell phones, micro fuel cells,WiMax
  • 12. What Do We Find in Fashion? Information technology will transform everything. The believe that something that is possible is inevitable. Everything needs information technology. ‘…given enough apps, all of humanities bugs are shallow’ (Evgeny Morozov) Moore’s Curse First mover’s advantage IT has mastered innovation
  • 13. What About Innovation? First thought experiments Let us go back 200 years, put a leading scientist/engineer 100 year into the future, and expose him/her to the current knowledge James Watt Mathematics (real foundation), physics (Maxwell, quantum theory, relativity theory), biology (genetics), medicine (understanding of diseases, pharmaceuticals),energy (coal, oil, electricity),materials (alloys), chemical industry, transportation (railways, mass transit, cars, air planes), communication (telegraph, telephone, radio), photography, phonograph, movies Overwhelmed! Repeat for 100 years Thomas Alva Edison Substantial progress everywhere, but not many real breakthroughs (antibiotics, human genome, nuclear energy, computers, Internet, wireless) Impressed, but not overwhelmed
  • 14. Second thought experiment Let us go back 100 years, and compare the change that a representative of a median income family would experience in the next 50 years electrical appliances (washing machine, refrigerator), in-door plumbing, central heating, cars, telephone, radio, TV, record players, compact Cassette (1963, that is a close one) Overwhelmed! Repeat for 50 years Everything is better, many things are digital, but not much is new (microwave, PCs, printers, cell phones, Internet access everywhere) Impressive, but not overwhelming
  • 15. How Important Is IT? Impact on overall economy Median incomes over the last 20 years You can see computers everywhere except in productivity numbers China Property rights, enforceable contracts Technologies played a major role, and IT played a minor role Finance High-speed trading as an example for an arms race without social value
  • 16. What Else Matters? Principle of diminishing returns Unintended consequences Quite often, the opposite of something true is also true. Power
  • 17. The Big Challenges Energy/Climate Change 2050: carbon-free KWh at 50% of today’s cost (Bill Gates) Education ‘...I’ve had to come to the inevitable conclusion that the problem is not one that technology can hope to solve. What’s wrong with education cannot be fixed with technology. No amount of technology will make a dent. It’s a political problem. The problems are sociopolitical.’ Steve Jobs
  • 18. The Big Challenges Energy/Climate Change 2050: carbon-free KWh at 50% of today’s cost (Bill Gates) Education Healthcare Nurses will be more important than technology Investment over consumption Science
  • 20. A New Hope - Augmentation Freestyle Chess (2005) Anyone could compete in teams with others or computers The result: ‘Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process.’ (Gary Kasparov in ‘The Chess Master and the Computer’)
  • 21. A New Hope Augmentation Collaboration and new value chains Quirky New AI New platforms A deeper understanding of human behavior that includes evidence from cognitive psychology, evolutionary biology, and neurology.
  • 22. The Empire Strikes Back The end of Moore’s law (around 2020) Software becomes/is more important than hardware Intellectual property Last year, for the first time, spending by Apple and Google on patent lawsuits and unusually big-dollar patent purchases exceeded spending on research and development of new products, according to public filings. (NY Times, Oct 7, 2012) Judge Posner’s ruling in an Apple/Motorola case (focusing on damage calculations) is encouraging, but is likely to be appealed and overturned.
  • 23. No Jedis, it is just us.
  • 24. References Tyler Cowen, The Great Stagnation, 2011 Richard Farson, Management of the Absurd, 1997 Andy Haldane, Financial Arms Races, 2012 Gary Kasparov, The Chess Master and the Computer, 2010 Daniel L. McFadden, The New Science of Pleasure, NBER Working Paper, Feb. 2013 Evgeny Morozov, To Save Everything, Click Here, 2013 Vaclav Smil, Creating the 20th Century, 2005