The document discusses several studies related to assessing dynamic risk factors for parolees and offenders. It finds that parole officers can achieve moderate to high accuracy in predicting recidivism when assessing dynamic risk factors, even with limited tools. Multiple reassessments of dynamic risk over time provide better predictions than a single pre-release assessment. Studies also found parole officers focus more on superficial engagement than targeting criminogenic needs and using cognitive behavioral techniques, as associated with reduced recidivism. The document introduces a structured tool called DRAOR for assessing dynamic risk, acute risk, and protective factors.
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Assessing and managing risk for violence among juveniles is an important forensic task. Clinical judgement is never sufficient for this important job. This presentation outlines methods of assessing and managing risk of violence among young people.
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In this module, you will learn about the controversies surrounding psychological testing and specialized evaluations.
There are times when the expertise of psychology professionals and mental health professionals is used to protect both clients and society. This use of expertise calls for sensitive evaluation procedures fraught with risk for psychology professionals and mental health evaluators. The risk arises because opinion may be mistaken for fact, and this can result in unfair sentencing or lawsuits against the evaluator if the sensitive information is misused or misinterpreted in any way by third parties.
In a forensic setting, recommendations are made to assess and determine dangerousness, risk for recidivism, and the potential for future violence. These specialized evaluations require appropriate training and the administration of psychological tests designed to measure specific traits. The instruments designed to measure violence and dangerousness are surrounded by controversy because of their limited ability to assess risks beyond reasonable certainty. While they are often useful in yielding information about specific personality traits, no test can conclusively predict how and when an individual will act in any given situation. Therefore, these instruments are often the center of controversy in courts, particularly among defense attorneys. Psychological evaluations are defensible only to a certain degree. No matter what types of or how many valid instruments psychology professionals or mental health professionals use in the forensic assessment, the results will likely be viewed as the opinion of the examiner in a court of law. This leaves room for holes to be punched into theories of both the defense and the prosecution. It also reinforces the fact that you must obtain expertise through experience and training if you plan to conduct evaluations for use in the court or the legal system. The instruments will not be subject to a cross-examination as much as the evaluators who use them.
An additional factor subject to scrutiny in the legal system is the appropriateness of tests used on clients fitting certain racial, cultural, ethnic, and sexual orientation demographics if they are not represented by the norms on which the psychological tests were developed. While increasing efforts have been made recently by most test publishers to establish norms better matching race, culture, ethnicity, and sexual orientation, most major psychological instruments are still interpreted using standard norms and outdated representative populations. In addition, there is a controversy concerning what parameters of intelligence and developmental disability should be admissible in court. For example, if someone with moderate mental retardation commits murder and knows right from wrong, it is argued that the low intelligence of the individual is irrelevant in the case and should not influence sentencing. These scenarios are difficult to address with psycho.
The document provides an overview of threat assessment for schools. It discusses the importance of threat assessment and the legislative mandate for schools to establish threat assessment teams. It outlines the three parts of threat assessment as appraise, assess, address. It defines different types of threats and categories of threats. It also discusses concerning behaviors that require different levels of response, from immediate intervention to warning signs requiring counseling or other support services. The goal is for schools to properly evaluate threats in order to determine the appropriate response and ensure student and staff safety.
This document discusses domestic violence and its relationship to mental health. It notes that domestic violence is associated with an increased risk of various mental disorders in both men and women. Experiencing domestic violence is also linked to poorer mental health outcomes. While the causal relationship is complex, domestic violence appears to increase the severity of mental health symptoms. The document then reviews prevalence rates of domestic violence among mental health patients and barriers to disclosure. It concludes by discussing interventions for domestic violence survivors with mental illness, including trauma-focused cognitive behavioral therapy and advocacy services integrated within mental health teams.
The document discusses violence risk assessment. It notes that both static (historical) and dynamic (clinical) risk factors should be considered. The most robust risk factors for violence are substance abuse, prior acts of violence, and psychopathy. Well-known risk assessment tools mentioned include the HCR-20 and PCL-R. The goals of risk assessment are described as improved decision making, reduced recidivism, and increased community safety.
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This Step Into Security webinar by LENSEC will provide principles for assessing threats on campus for K-12 schools and universities. We'll introduce techniques campus administrators may engage to prevent threats.
The webinar features security expert Gary L. Sigrist, Jr. as our panelist. Gary is a former educator and law enforcement officer. As a professional expert, he brings a wealth of knowledge and experience working with school faculty and staff. Gary is the president and CEO of Safeguard Risk Solutions. The company helps its clients identify vulnerabilities, plan accordingly, train thoroughly and respond effectively.
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Share this info with your colleagues and invite them to join us.
Consideration of symptom validity as a routine component of forensic assessme...NZ Psychological Society
This document discusses the importance of assessing symptom validity as a routine part of forensic psychological assessments. It provides examples of response biases and incentives that could influence self-reported symptoms. The document argues that evaluating symptom validity strengthens psychological contributions to forensic settings by testing alternative hypotheses and conclusions. It also provides case examples and practice points for incorporating symptom validity assessments.
Te Hurihanga is a therapeutic and bicultural pilot youth offender programme in New Zealand. It aims to reduce re-offending among high-risk male youth aged 14-17 through a multi-phase therapeutic intervention model delivered in a residential setting and community. Preliminary outcomes after 2 years indicate reductions in the number, rate, and severity of re-offenses for most youth completing the programme, as well as decreased estimates of risk for re-offending. However, outcomes were more mixed for those exiting the programme early.
Explains the process by which we receive, interpret, analyze, remember and use information about the social world. Also attempts to explain the process of attribution and common errors we often commit in social perception.
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Explanations for Delinquency
A Brief Introduction to Sociological Theory
Theory Without Panic!A simple definition of theory:Theories are nothing more than explanations for how 2 or more phenomena are related to each other.We all apply theories every dayFor example, we explain “getting wet” by the falling rainScientific theory must be falsifiable:This means that it must be stated in such a way that it can be tested with empirical evidence;This evidence provides a litmus test--it either supports the theory or it fails to support the theoryIf supported, or verified, the theory gains credibility; if not supported, or falsified, the theory must be revised.
What Causes Delinquency?What propels youths to commit delinquency?Complex interplay of a variety of biological, genetic, and environmental factors Further complicated by various reactions to environmental factorsWhy do only a few individuals who experience the same environments as many others actually commit crime?
Criminological theories provide a scientific way to approach and understand why people commit crime
Criminological ParadigmsClassical School TheoriesFocus on individual free will and our ability to make choices as the central explanation for committing delinquency/crime
Positive School TheoriesEmbraces determinism and scientific method: Recognizes the role of forces that individuals cannot control or may not be aware of on crime and the role of science to discover what these factors areThe positive school has 3 basic approaches: biological, psychological, and sociological
Theories Within Classical School Deterrence TheoryCertainty, severity, and celerityGeneral and specificRational Choice TheoryDecision to commit crime involves weighing the costs and benefits associated with that crimeBounded rationalityRoutine ActivitiesFocuses on the opportunity for crime to occurInteraction of the following: suitable targets, absence of capable guardians, and presence of motivated offenders
Positive School—Biological TheoriesGenetic transmission of criminal tendenciesHormonal imbalancesNeurological dysfunctionDevelopmental Theory (Biosocial Theories)
Positive School—Psychological TheoriesIntelligence—IQCrimePersonality types--SomatotypesPsychodynamic Theory (Freud & psychic phenomenon)Underdeveloped/Overdeveloped SuperegoBasis for Antisocial Personalities & ImpulsivityBehavioral Theory (Skinner & measurable events)Used as basis for Social Learning Theory
Positive School—Sociological Theories Social Structure TheoriesSocial disorganizationAnomie/StrainSocial Process TheoriesDifferential Association/Learning TheorySocial Control TheorySocial Conflict Labeling and Stigma
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The document outlines the steps of plan-based evidence informed prevention which includes carefully assessing needs, selecting relevant and changeable determinants of behaviors or environments, choosing theory-based intervention methods to address those determinants, developing and testing a program, and planning for adoption, implementation and evaluation. The approach emphasizes thinking through problems systematically before taking action and allowing for adaptation through an iterative process.
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The document discusses the experiences of a non-Māori therapist working with Māori clients in New Zealand. It emphasizes the importance of working in a culturally safe way to honor the Treaty of Waitangi and better serve clients. This involves understanding how one's own background and culture can influence perspectives as well as familiarizing oneself with Māori values, worldviews, and cultural practices to provide holistic and responsive care.
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This study applied the Massachusetts Treatment Centre Revised Rapist Typology (MTC:R3) to classify 10 high-risk rapists in New Zealand who were selected for a sex offender treatment pilot program. The study found that the MTC:R3 typology could successfully classify this sample and mean differences were observed in risk assessment scores between the typology groups. The results suggest the typology may help differentiate patterns of risk for rapists and could have applications for treatment programs.
This study explored the social relationships of 4 immigrant adolescents in New Zealand, 2 living in nuclear family settings and 2 living in communal family settings. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to understand the nature, frequency, and purpose of relationships with family and non-family members. Preliminary findings suggest those in communal settings did not necessarily have more relationships than those in nuclear settings. The small sample size limits conclusions but generates questions around acculturation and social support networks for immigrant youth.
This document discusses the challenges facing organizations in coordinating recovery efforts following the Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand. It notes that recovery will require integrated decision making across many organizations with differing interests. As time passes, organizations are finding they have insufficient resources to maintain early recovery collaboration. There is also a risk of growing inter-organizational strain as linkages between groups break down. To fully recover, it will be important to address both structural needs like rebuilding infrastructure as well as social needs to support economic recovery and community wellbeing over the long term. Effective ongoing leadership will be critical to sustain recovery efforts and maintain morale.
Children, adolescents and families make up 50% of clients seen in psychology clinics across New Zealand and Australia. Half of respondents report offering family therapy, but only 27% require one family therapy course, and over 50% integrate it into general courses or have little training. A literature review found nothing on family therapy training in New Zealand except a 2009 report recommending postgraduate courses and national training programs recognizing cultural contexts. Potential training models include seminars and sessions with reflecting teams. A Family Therapy Reference Group was formed to promote workforce development through conferences, standards, and a national association.
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The document summarizes a study on the effects of brachytherapy and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) on quality of life and sexual function in prostate cancer patients. The study found that brachytherapy had negative impacts on urinary symptoms, quality of life, and sexual function over time. Patients receiving ADT in addition to brachytherapy experienced worse urinary symptoms. Sexual function scores declined significantly following treatment. Younger patients reported more side effects initially. While some symptoms may stabilize over longer periods, short-term impacts persisted at two years post-treatment.
The document discusses three research projects that used methodology to analyze what is not directly said in interviews. The researchers hypothesized that answers may lie outside of conscious knowledge and aimed to have a relational process where the researcher is also a participant. Psychoanalytic ideas and narrative theory were used to analyze interviews on multiple levels, looking beyond what was said to subjects' constructions of self and stories. The women in STEM project found complex family relationships important. The youth connectedness project found secure attachments and achievement provide scaffolding for development, though some rely on little support. The research itself created new connections for some youth.
This document summarizes a qualitative study exploring service users' subjective experiences of an early intervention service for psychosis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 service users about their life prior to engaging with the service, factors influencing recovery, and their experience of the recovery process. The therapeutic relationship was found to be the most commonly cited factor positively influencing recovery. Key aspects of the therapeutic relationship that helped recovery included clinicians taking a personable approach, forming a collaborative treatment partnership, and providing a client-focused service. A lack of these relationship elements was seen as negatively impacting recovery. The quality of the therapeutic relationship affected other recovery factors. Clinical implications include tailoring the relationship to better meet clients' needs.
The document provides an update from the New Zealand Psychologists Board. It discusses the current board members and structure. It also summarizes the board's major activities including developing best practice guidelines, quality improvement processes, and proposals from the Health Workforce New Zealand. Registration and complaints data from the past year are also presented.
This document provides information about diagnosing autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in adults. It discusses the diagnostic process, including conducting a comprehensive evaluation of an individual's history, skills, behaviors, and functioning. Formal diagnostic tools like the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule are recommended. Differential diagnosis is important to rule out conditions like obsessive-compulsive disorder, social phobia, and psychoses. The presentation provides clinical case examples and resources for professionals and individuals diagnosed with ASD.
Wairua is a fundamental aspect of life and being for Māori. It provides a connection between the physical and spiritual realms. Wairua exists within all people, lands, words, generations and ancestors. It gives Māori a sense of identity, strength and balance. Expressions of wairua can be seen through te reo, waiata, whakapapa and other cultural practices. Maintaining connections to wairua, whenua, tikanga and each other is important for Māori wellbeing.
This document explores the biomedical and holistic worldviews of palliative care. The biomedical view takes an analytical approach, focusing on diagnosing and treating diseases. The holistic view takes a more interpretive approach, seeking to understand the total pain and lived experience of the patient. Interviews with physicians found that those with more of a biomedical worldview focused on symptoms and treatment, while those with a holistic view considered the whole person and quality of life issues. The document recommends that hospitals support a more holistic approach through training and appropriate resources.
This document discusses issues facing stepfamilies and implications for clinical practice. It provides an overview of common challenges in the first two years as a stepfamily, including unclear roles and boundaries, loyalty conflicts between children and parents/stepparents, and discipline issues if the stepparent takes on an active parenting role too quickly. The presentation aims to examine stepfamily functioning, implications for practice, and discuss a case study example.
Evaluating postgraduate CBT training in New Zealand. The study evaluated the transfer of training for graduates of a postgraduate CBT program from 2000-2009. Of the 88 graduates contacted, 11 participated by providing recorded therapy sessions that were rated using the Cognitive Therapy Scale. Seven of the 11 participants achieved scores above the competence threshold. However, recruitment of graduates was difficult due to fears of negative evaluation, difficulties obtaining recordings, and the expense of competency ratings. Improving supervision access, technological support, and disseminating feedback may help increase participation in future evaluations.
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TEST BANK For Physical Examination and Health Assessment 8th Edition, by Carolyn Jarvis, Verified Chapters 1 - 32,.pdf
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The document discusses issues with India's existing food safety regulatory regime and the need for new legislation. It outlines key aspects of the Food Safety and Standards Act of 2006, including consolidating various food laws, establishing the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India to set science-based standards, and regulating the food supply chain from manufacturing to retail. The new Act aims to ensure safe and wholesome food is available for consumers and allows for stringent enforcement including penalties for violations.
This presentation is about understanding child stunting, its causes, effects, prevention, and treatment. The presentation provides a guide for parents to prevent and treat stunting, with information from dr. I Putu Cahya Legawa. It gives an overview of stunting, its causes, including malnutrition, poor sanitation, and lack of access to healthcare, and its effects, such as delayed development, chronic disease, and impaired cognitive abilities. The presentation also discusses ways to prevent and treat stunting, including a healthy diet, proper hygiene, and access to medical care.
Calcium regulation hormones_ PTH, Vitamin D & Calcitonin.pdfMedicoseAcademics
Join Dr. Faiza Ikram, Assistant Professor of Physiology at CMH Multan Institute of Medical Sciences, for an in-depth exploration of the mechanisms that regulate calcium and phosphate homeostasis in the human body. This comprehensive lecture provides a detailed examination of the physiological processes that maintain extracellular fluid balance, with a primary focus on the roles of key hormones such as parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcitonin, and vitamin D.
Key Topics Covered:
Introduction to Calcium and Phosphate Homeostasis:
Importance of calcium and phosphate in physiological functions.
Overview of the distribution of calcium and phosphate in the body.
Role of Parathyroid Hormone (PTH):
Synthesis and secretion of PTH.
PTH's effects on bone, kidneys, and intestines.
Regulatory feedback mechanisms controlling PTH secretion.
Functions of Calcitonin:
Calcitonin production and its role in calcium metabolism.
Effects of calcitonin on bone resorption and blood calcium levels.
Vitamin D and Its Metabolic Pathways:
Synthesis and activation of vitamin D.
Role of vitamin D in calcium and phosphate absorption in the intestines.
Interplay between vitamin D, PTH, and calcitonin.
Physiological Impact of Calcium and Phosphate:
Role of calcium in nerve conduction, muscle contraction, and blood clotting.
Phosphate's role in energy metabolism and cellular function.
Bone Structure and Remodeling:
Composition and function of bone tissue.
Processes of bone formation and resorption.
Roles of osteoblasts, osteoclasts, and osteocytes in bone health.
Pathophysiology of Calcium and Phosphate Imbalances:
Clinical manifestations and complications of hypercalcemia and hypocalcemia.
Disorders associated with phosphate imbalance.
Impact of hormonal imbalances on bone density and strength.
Bone Diseases and Hormonal Dysregulation:
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Parathyroid disorders, including hyperparathyroidism and hypoparathyroidism.
Diagnosis and treatment strategies for bone diseases and calcium disorders.
Clinical Implications and Treatment:
Therapeutic approaches to managing calcium and phosphate imbalances.
Role of calcium and vitamin D supplements in treatment.
Use of bisphosphonates, hormone replacement therapy, and other medications.
Case Studies and Practical Applications:
Real-world examples illustrating the clinical application of concepts.
Discussion of diagnostic techniques and interpretation of lab results.
Patient management strategies for endocrine disorders affecting bone metabolism.
This lecture is designed for medical students, healthcare professionals, and researchers seeking a thorough understanding of the endocrine regulation of calcium and phosphate metabolism. With a blend of theoretical knowledge and clinical applications, this presentation aims to enhance your comprehension of the intricate balance required to maintain skeletal health and overall physiological function.
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Dr Sujoy Dasgupta delivered a talk on "Genetic Issues in Male Infertility" in a webinar organised by the North East India Genomic Consortium on 25 June, 2024. Number of experts in the field of Medical Genetics participated in it.
Complete Variant Assessment in VSClinicalGolden Helix
Recent webcasts have been focused on our latest features in Pharmacogenomics and the IVDR announcement for our tools now marked as a medical device. While technology and market updates are incredibly important to our customers, it is also important to take a step back and revisit the fundamental purpose of our products. The Golden Helix product stack is tailored for comprehensive variant evaluation and facilitating a complete tertiary analysis from initial data import to final clinical report. The tertiary analysis process is comprised of various steps of variant prioritization that includes but is not limited to filtering on alternate allele frequency to isolate rare variants in the population and ontology to capture variants that are predicted to impact protein function. Variant assessment is only possible by referencing numerous databases that contain the necessary fields and evidence used for filtering and interpretation. VarSeq is our variant assessment platform and not only hosts a central access point to the numerous databases but also contains a dedicated interpretation interface designed to direct the user through the germline ACMG and somatic AMP guidelines for variant evaluation. Though VarSeq contains the necessary tools to streamline comprehensive variant assessment, there will likely never be a full replacement for the human component to variant assessment. The goal with VarSeq is to achieve the best of both worlds, a defendable degree of automation to improve analytical efficiency paired with upholding the necessary human touch required to render accurate variant interpretations.
The purpose of this webcast is to expose our audience to the fundamental annotation and interpretation capabilities of VarSeq. We will pay close attention to the required depth of assessing variant impact to demonstrate that simple record matching against variant annotation is only one step of the process and requires human review. Moreover, we will also look at examples of recent advancements in variant calling strategies that provide multiple variant outputs as evidence to support a singular biological impact and complete diagnostic outcome. Please join us as we explore how users can make the most out of the VarSeq software to streamline comprehensive variant assessments in a clinical utility.
1. Applying Structured Dynamic Risk and Protective Assessment (DRAOR) with Parolees NZPS Queenstown 2011 Nick J Wilson, PhD Psychological Research Psychological Services, RRS
2. Previous research in the area Bulk of literature indicates detecting fluctuations in individual risk using dynamic risk factors is vital to targeting and preventing failure. Last decade a body of research has found moderate to high levels of accuracy for dynamic measures. Unfortunately many involve single applications typically prior to release (treating them like static factors). This does not assess coping attempts by the individual to stressors Hanson et al (2007) an attempt to train PO’s to assess risk using dynamic risk factors (AUC = .70) but this was retrospective in design and PO’s highly trained, performance checked- not a naturalistic context!
3. How accurate are PO’s in predicting dynamic risk? Natalie J. Jones, Shelley L. Brown and Edward Zamble (2010) Assessment of Dynamic Risk Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Adult Male Offenders : Researcher Versus Parole. Criminal Justice and Behavior 2010 37 : 860 127 male offenders under community supervision Assessed by PO’s & researchers, three intervals- 1, 3, and 6 months Moderate to high levels of predictive accuracy in both research-based and parole officer ratings AUC = .79 and .76, respectively Parole officers were limited to crude proxy measures of dynamic risk constructs, no quality control measures yet moderate-high accuracy Time-dependent dynamic factors produced better results than time-invariant models- multiple reassessments are better than single (AUC .70 vs .79). The fact that both researchers and parole officers achieved similarly high levels of predictive accuracy suggests that the complex and exhaustive protocols adopted by the research team may not be necessary!
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5. Manitoba Probation Study Do Probation Officers follow RNR? Is level of intervention proportional to risk? Does supervision target criminogenic needs? Are probation officers using the techniques associated with reduced recidivism (i.e., cognitive behavioural techniques? Small study 62 PO’s and 154 offenders- 211 audiotapes (Bonta et al., 2008)
6. Targeting Criminogenic Needs & Recidivism Discussing criminogenic needs were related to reduced recidivism More focus on criminogenic needs, lower the recidivism 47.6 Medium (20-30 minutes) 20.3 High (40+ minutes) 59.8 Low (0-15 minutes) Recidivism (%) Length of Discussion
7. Manitoba Case Management Study: Major Findings Modest adherence to Risk Principle Identified criminogenic needs were not discussed in the majority of cases (Need Principle) Little attention to issues of antisocial peers and antisocial beliefs Relationship and cognitive-behavioural skills used inconsistently (Responsivity Principle) More focus on superficial engagement little behaviour challenge
8. DRAOR-NZ Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (Serin, Mailloux & Wilson 2010)
10. DRAOR Scale composition 3 specific domains: Stable risk indicators Acute risk indicators Protective factors Consider: static risk estimates the likelihood of re-offending whereas dynamic risk estimates indicate when that person might re-offend. Protective factors inform crime desistance
11. Factors considered in DRAOR Social support Interpersonal relationships Attachment with others Living situation Social control Employment Sense of entitlement Cost/Benefit Negative mood Problem-solving High expectations Opportunity/access to victims Impulse Control Prosocial identity Anger/hostility Attitude to authority Responsive to advice Substance abuse Peer associations Protective Acute Stable
12. Protective factors Protective factors are factors that may mitigate or reduce the probability of engaging in offending. They consist of internal assets and external strengths . These factors are not simply the inverse of the risk factor but rather positive attributes that shield the individual from the risks. These factors are likely context-specific and quite dynamic in nature. The more protective factors there are, the greater the likelihood that an offender will be resilient to presented risks.
13. Offender re-entry An offender’s parole from prison to the community represents a crucial phase in the offence/ desistance process Desistance, is considered to occur when: “internal and external variables align in such a way that an offender with a history of multiple offences ceases all criminal activity” (Serin & Lloyd, 2009)
14. Scoring of protocol At the end of each face-to-face interview or supervision session the Probation Officer completes the protocol. The initial session provides a baseline. Higher scores are indicative of concern and may warrant an increase in community risk management strategies. For each subsequent session, assess acute factors (revisit the others as new information emerges or you doubt reliability).
15. Rating system 3-point scoring format (0, 1, 2). Score of 1 indicates a slight or possible problem/asset or you are unsure due to mixed evidence Can omit in some cases- but no prorating of scores For protective items high score switch with high scores being assets and greater ‘armour’ against future reoffending
16. Total STABLE Risk / 12 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Connected/concerned about others (0)- Callous/indifferent towards others (2) Attachment with Others 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Recognition of their limitations (0) -Inflated sense of self worth (2) Sense of Entitlement 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Ability to make good decisions (0) – No consideration of consequences (2) Problem-Solving 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Autonomous/self monitoring (0) – Highly impulsive (2) Self-Regulation 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Prosocial attitudes (0) – Antagonistic attitudes (2) Attitudes Towards Authority 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Has only prosocial peers (0) – Has only antisocial peers (2) Peer Associations SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR STABLE RISK INDICATORS Characteristics associated with risk and capable of changing over months or years.
17. Total ACUTE Risk / 14 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Stable and positive living situation (0) – Instability/Lack of accommodations (2) Living Situation 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem In a stable healthy relationship (0) – Conflicted relationship (2) Interpersonal Relationships 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Maintaining a job (0) – Unemployed (2) Employment 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem No evidence of depression/anxiety (0) – Marked presence of depression/anxiety (2) Negative Mood 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Avoidance of preferred victims (0) – Access to preferred victims (2) Opportunity/Access to Victims 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Absence of anger/hostility (0) – Marked presence of anger/hostility (2) Anger/Hostility 2 Definite problem 1 Slight/Possible problem 0 Not a problem Maintaining sobriety/social use (0) – Problematic substance abuse (2) Substance Abuse SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR ACUTE RISK INDICATORS Characteristics associated with risk and capable of changing in the short term (<1 month).
18. Total PROTECTIVE / 12 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Conformity and compliance with prosocial others; Strong internalized connection/bonds. Social Control 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Evidence that meaningful and accessible prosocial supports exist. Social Support 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Evidence that rewards of prosocial behaviour outweigh those of procriminal behaviour. Costs/Benefits 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Individual, family, and/or community have high expectations of success. High Expectations 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Legitimately views self as no longer criminally oriented with behavioural examples. Prosocial Identity 2 Definite asset 1 Slight/Possible asset 0 Not an asset Follows direction from prosocial peers, partners, supervisor, etc.. Responsive to Advice SCORE (omit if unknown) SCORING CRITERIA INDICATOR PROTECTIVE FACTORS Characteristics that may buffer risk.
19. Risk Scenarios Most likely scenario ; this can also be considered a repeat or same offending scenario, Worst case scenario ; this can be considered as a serious harm scenarios, Nature : What kind of offending is most likely to occur? Who will be the likely victim(s), motivation and offence antecedents Severity : What would be the likely or potential harm to victim(s) Imminence : How soon might the offending occur? Are there any warning signs that may indicate that the risk is increasing or is imminent? Frequency and/or duration : How often might the offending occur (e.g., once, a few times, several times or more) Likelihood : How frequent or common is this type of offending, what is the base rate?
20. What needs to be in a risk scenario- Six guide questions Related to an offence which is described Who would be the victim(s)- age, gender, relationship etc What would be the impact on victim(s) Aggravating features identified Situational/Environment risk factors Protective factors- current or future
21. Example Peter- Stable 11/12 Stable Risk Factor Total 2 Definite Problem Attachment with Others 2 Definite Problem Sense of Entitlement 2 Definite Problem Problem Solving 2 Definite Problem Impulse Control 2 Definite Problem Attitudes Towards Authority 1 Slight/Possible problem Peer Associations
22. Peter- Acute 11/14 Acute Risk Factor Total 1 Slight/Possible problem Living Situation 2 Definite problem Interpersonal Relationships 2 Definite problem Employment 1 Slight/Possible problem Negative Mood 2 Definite problem Opportunity/Access to Victims 2 Definite problem Anger/Hostility 1 Slight/Possible problem Substance Abuse Acute Risk Factor
23. Peter- Protective 2/12 Protective Factor Total 0 Not an asset Social Control 1 Slight/Possible asset Social Support 0 Not an asset Costs/Benefits 0 Not an asset High Expectations 1 Slight/Possible asset Prosocial Identity 0 Not an asset Responsive to Advice Protective Factor
24. Peter’s Most Serious Risk Scenario Related to an offence which is described Assault on Rachel, manual but could include weapon if so likely knife, could be aggravated wounding under select conditions (infidelity, abandonment) Who would be the victim(s)- age, gender, relationship etc Partner-Rachel, 23yrs, isolated from family, female, intimate conflicted relationship What would be the impact on victims Bruising, possible wounds, possible trauma to child if they see assault Aggravating features identified Poor ability to manage anger, pattern of past use of anger/violence to control women, substance abuse, weapons, antisocial associates Situational/Environment risk factors Banned from living with partner, facing charges, uncertain about his future, partner possible losing her residence Protective factors Potential- Rachel has a safety plan Parents- Want to help but fearful of him, Wants to be in a relationship and to be a father
25. Concern over possible reoffending before next contact- rate 1-6 “ Not concerned ” – The Probation Officer believes that the parolee has no current acute risk, indicates current l ow risk “ Possible concern ” – The Probation Officer believes that the parolee has a significant acute risk factor or number of acute risk factors that supports a moderate risk of reoffending “ Concerned ” – The Probation Officer believes that there are a higher level of acute factors linked to previous offending that supports a high or very risk of reoffending Keep in mind the likely risk reoffending and most serious from risk scenario formulation- watch base rates
26. Harm Scale (Offence Impact) In regards of higher harm ratings these would be based on risk scenarios that involve serious physical injury/trauma or death (this would include offending such as rape) Mid range ratings on the likelihood of a risk scenarios causing moderate physical harm (bruising or injuries that would not require hospitalisation for 48 hours or more) or general harm to unspecified victims in the community (reckless behaviour offences) Low range ratings on the likelihood of a risk scenarios causing loss of assets or property damage not associated with direct harm to others or scenarios involving crimes of disorder, failures to comply etc.
27. CHCH Pilot 2008-09 (N =58) The DRAOR initial pilot was found to have a normal distribution for scores for all three subscales, Stable, Acute, and Protective. DRAOR sub scale score range was also found to change over the course of probation contact. The moderate correlations between the RoC*RoI and DRAOR scores were all a direction that supported the relationship between static risk of reoffending and higher Stable and Acute subscale scores. It was confirmed in the study results that the protective factors were not positively correlated with either static or dynamic risk variables.
28. Predictive Validity Comparison of those recalled or reconvicted (reoffending) and crime desistance groups (non-recidivist) revealed that Older offender age, Lower acute risk and Higher scores on the DRAOR Protective scale were significant predictors of parole success. This significance was across probation contact time, both at initial DRAOR ratings and at the last or most recent rating.
29. DRAOR Expansion Research-PRT’s Funding received to apply DRAOR with six Prison Release Teams (PRTS) across NZ 35 Probation staff, trained in measure, applied across parolees from beginning Nov 2009, data gathered until end June 2010. Reoffending data collected until mid August 2010. Total of 283 offenders had at least one DRAOR administered, 181, two administered, 125, three admin, 99 four admin (max number 14 admin) Gender Males- 257, Females- 26 Static risk- RoC*RoI M = .46, SD = .24, normal dist Age- M = 36; SD = 11.27 range 18-77 yrs Ethnicity: Maori 54.4%; European 26.6%; PI 13.9%; Other 5.1% (Asian/Indian)
30. DRAOR Reliability ( N = 283) Stable scale- acceptable Cronbach Alpha .78, Good inter-rater reliability, .87 Acute scale- acceptable Cronbach Alpha .73, Good inter-rater reliability, .81 Protective scale- acceptable Cronbach Alpha .79, Good inter-rater reliability, .87
31. Correlations between offender age, static risk, and initial scores on DRAOR dynamic risk and protective factors ** p < .01 1.00 -0.56** -0.67** -0.24** -0.081 Protective --- 1.00 0.67** 0.24** -0.046 Acute --- --- 1.00 0.27** -0.085 Stable --- --- --- 1.00 -0.37** RoC*RoI --- --- --- --- 1.00 Age Protective Acute Stable RoC*RoI Age Variables
32. Detected reoffending by sample Mean follow-up 170 days ( SD = 101) Any new offence, includes breach of conditions- 42% ( n = 119) Any violence offence, 9.5% ( n = 27) Any reimprisonment, 11.7% ( n = 33)
33. Discriminant Functional Analysis- Any Reoffending .526 Acute -.537 Protective -.558 Age .675 Stable .752 RoC*RoI Function Structure Matrix .000 278 3 21.11 .814 Age 3 .000 279 2 28.40 .831 Stable 2 .000 280 1 37.46 .882 RoC*RoI 1 Sig. df2 df1 Statistic Statistic Entered Exact F Wilks' Lambda Step Variables Entered/Removed
34. Discriminant Functional Analysis- Any Reimprisonment .028 Age .246 RoC*RoI -.560 Protective .661 Stable 1.000 Acute 1 Function Structure Matrix 0.001 176 1 11.91 176 1 1 0.937 Acute 1 Sig. df2 df1 Statistic Exact F df3 df2 df1 Statistic Wilks' Lambda Entered Step Variables Entered/Removed
35. Repeat DRAOR Stable scrs and any reoffending .887 .686 .000 .051 .787 Stable 4 .890 .676 .000 .055 .783 Stable 3 .863 .647 .000 .055 .755 Stable 2 .816 .574 .002 .062 .695 Stable 1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. b Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve
36. Repeat DRAOR Acute scrs and reimprisonment .883 .677 .003 .053 .780 Acute 3 .864 .648 .007 .055 .756 Acute 2 .911 .634 .004 .071 .772 Acute 1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. b Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve
37. Repeat DRAOR Protective scrs and any reoffending .725 .526 .019 .051 .625 Protective3 .741 .545 .007 .050 .643 Protective2 .757 .555 .003 .052 .656 Protective1 Upper Bound Lower Bound Asymptotic 95% Confidence Interval Asymptotic Sig. Std. Error Area Test Result Variable(s) Area Under the Curve
40. Keystone Model Intervention/monitoring Target Selection Using DRAOR scenarios
41. Background DRAOR provides information on 19 items, 13 relating to possible Stable and Acute risk and 6 to potential assets The two scenario options, likely and serious provide information on the relevance in the ‘story’ of potential reoffending Reality check for the checklist (DRAOR)! Keystone model provides reflective risk reasoning (the three R’s) keystone issue is usually peripheral or antecedent to reoffending
42. Creating a risk reasoning ‘web’ The risk scenario provides the risk context story You then need to create a conceptual map or web of the relationships between the risk and individual factors to ID the priority offender problem What risk issue has the most number of relevant connections Use: Logic, functional link? Relevance to the offending ‘end game’ Understanding of criminal motivation and pathways Cultural link?
43. Connections for Peter’s keystone arch and assault on Rachel ???? Poor ability manage anger Pattern of bullying women Concern over relationship ending Uncertain about future Victim likely be partner Will use knife if threatened Substance abuse- binging? Wants to be dad and have family
44. Background to focus on values/goals Part of developing a commitment for change Counter negative expectancies about the future Enhance self efficacy Provides suitable goals that direct behaviour that is concrete and realistic Answers important change questions 1. What will it be like if I change? 2. How will I be better off if I change? 3. Can I change? 4. What will it cost to change Motivational- Helps overcome barriers to change- makes small and simple demands, uses self generated goals, helps to record progress, provides freq positive reinforcers, requires prior committment
45. Assessment of valued directions- Use of worksheet Family (other than marriage or parenting): How do you want to interact with your family members? What type of sister or brother do you want to be? What type of son or daughter do you want to be? How important is this area to you? 0 = not at all important 1 = moderately important 2 = very important Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality and depth of your experience in this area of life? 0 = not at all satisfied 1 = moderately satisfied 2 = very satisfied How often have you done something to move you forward in this area during the last week? 0 = no action 1 = once or twice 2 = three or four times 3 = more than four times Intention: Barriers:
46. “ John Example” Used Valued Directions Form The following example based on ‘John’ (not his real name) a high risk (RoC*RoI .89) and high need violent offender recently released after serving a five year sentence of imprisonment. He was assessed with the valued directions form when he had been back in the community for one month.
47. Family (other than marriage or parenting): How do you want to interact with your family or whanau members? What type of sister or brother do you want to be? What type of son or daughter do you want to be? John reported that he has a younger brother and sister but had little contact with most of his family for some years. His parents who he said were violent and abusive died some years ago, John said that prior to their death he was able to reconcile with them both. However, he does have contact with his aunt and uncle who live near his home marae and he had intended to live near them after release but the address was not approved. John has also retained links to his home marae and has a history of effective engagement with interventions delivered from Maori organisations. How important is this area to you? 0 = not at all important 1 = moderately important 2 = very important Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality and depth of your experience in this area of life? 0 = not at all satisfied 1 = moderately satisfied 2 = very satisfied How often have you done something to move you forward in this area during the last week or since last reporting? 0 = no action 1 = once or twice 2 = three or four times 3 = more than four times Intention : To keep in touch with my Aunt and Uncle by phone and to re-engage with my younger brother and sister Barriers :?????
48. Parenting: What type of parent do you want to be? How do you want to interact with your children? John has a 7 year old son with whom he has not had contact since the boy was 2. He has consistently wanted contact and grieves for not being in his son’s life but says his son would not know him now but hopes that in the future he can build a relationship. John is excited about a possible parenting role with his new partners 2 year old son, sees this as a another chance to be a dad. He is determined to not be like his father was to him and for children he parents to feel safe and supported. Importance : 0 = not at all important 1 = moderately important 2 = very important Satisfaction : 0 = not at all satisfied 1 = moderately satisfied 2 = very satisfied Actions (last week/reporting): 0 = no action 1 = once or twice 2 = three or four times 3 = more than four times Intention : To have frequent contact with his partners boy and to play with him and help with his care Barriers : ????
49. LIFE COMPASS- ‘John’ 2 Just started new relationship with ‘Mary ’ Excited about parenting partners 2 year old boy. Second chance 3 2 3 1 0 No/little contact immediate family, some contact extended whanau One close friend prohibited contact, gang loyalty impt 1 0 2 3 Aging, watching weight wants to weight train, needs training partner Past affiliation with Pentecostal Church, sees self as Christian 0 0 Volunteered for his local Marae in past Ngati Whatua 1 0 2 1 Physical, immediate reward, own business 0 0 Doesn’t like classroom learning, hands on Limited, likes league /gang connections 1 1
In recent years, it has been recognised that many of the current risk assessment tools are not designed to detect changes in risk necessary for managing ongoing offending and to respond to imminent harm. The primary roles of probation officers includes sentence compliance, risk management, and risk reduction. The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin & Mailloux, 2008) is a preliminary 19 item dynamic risk (and protective) assessment instrument developed to assist probation officers to systematically review changes in an offender’s community situation with reference to a number of viable risk scenarios. The three domains reflected in the scale are empirically related to risk of re-offending (Stable and Acute) and desistance (Protective). The New Zealand DRAOR research had three aims. First to establish the validity and reliability of the DRAOR with a large sample of paroled offenders in a New Zealand community, second to determine how the DRAOR may (or may not) inform probation officers’ on parole failure, and third, to establish whether the use of the DRAOR contributes to improved parole management decision-making with offenders. Six specialist probation prison release teams located around New Zealand applied the DRAOR at each contact in their management of parolees over a six month period (N = 200). Analysis of the reliability of DRAOR scale scores will be presented as well as the relationship of these scores across time. The predictive validity using parole failure (prison recall, reoffending) will also be presented. The implications of the use of DRAOR in improving probation management and risk reduction in paroled offenders will be discussed.
Examining adherence to RNR in Manitoba probation 62 probation officers and up to 154 offenders 65% adult; 35% young offenders 74% men; 26% women 211 audiotapes What did we find? First question – follow the risk principle?
Targeting criminogenic needs works!
In relation to RNR principles: This (Manitoba) study… POs spent too much time with low risk cases Average interview length = 22 minutes. Didn’t discuss criminogenic needs often enough
There is a negative relationship between dynamic and static risk factors and those deemed protective. There is a positive relationship between acute and stable risk factors, the acute factors are the children of the stable factors , too much focus on the children ignores the influence of the parents and visa versa!
The scale is organized into 3 specific domains: stable risk indicators, acute risk indicators, and protective factors. It is important to note that the terms stable and acute indicators have been successfully used in the area of sex offenders (Hanson, Harris, Scott & Helmus, 2007). These dynamic indicators augment static risk estimates. Some authors have suggested static risk estimates the likelihood of re-offending whereas dynamic risk estimates indicate when that person might re-offend. Further, this scale incorporates protective factors, which are clearly important in understanding crime desistance and risk management, but have rarely been used in risk assessment research to date.
Overall summary slide for DRAOR sub scales Draw attention to how the items or factors interact, for example, a high score for entitlement could also see high scores for anger and hostility and low scores for being responsive to advice
However, the ‘alignment’ of significant variables indicates that the process of desistance is complex and not well understood. Internal variables = things like attitudes to advice External variables = things like social support
Keep in mind that this is new research; as such the actual score has not been empirically related to likelihood or imminence of re-offending. Repeat the process: not more often than every 2 weeks but at least monthly Maintain the protocols until instructed on how to send them to the researchers.
Start with a score of 1 and then seek evidence to raise or lower this initial score . This helps to reduce the ‘nice bad person’ bias. If you cannot go down or up then stay with a score of 1. Continue in other contacts to move the scores based on reliable evidence
In some case the most likely and the worst case or more serious risk scenario could be the same
Staff may express anxiety over rating their concern, emphasis that this is a concern/level of risk at that time based on available information . It is important in supported decision making that the probation officer weigh the DRAOR information in relation to the offenders risk scenarios and decide on a level of concern/risk and this decision leads to actions to manage and reduce risk. Stops one size fits all approaches and allows the probation officer to respond in an evidence informed manner
Normal distributions that scores vary across offenders DRAOR scores responded to changes by offenders DRAOR items were easily understood and easy to apply with minimal practice Importantly DRAOR added value to the probation officer role
Predictive validity means is there a relevance between the DRAOR scores and reoffending and there is, higher scores on Stable and Acute scales indicate higher risk and higher protective scales do reduce risk.