Petrobras presents its Strategic Plan for 2017-2021 which focuses on oil and gas production. Key goals include reducing total recordable injury rate by 36% and reducing leverage (net debt to EBITDA ratio) to 1.4 by 2018. The plan prioritizes cost reductions through operational efficiencies, partnerships and divestments. Planned investments total $74.1 billion, with 81% directed towards exploration and production. The plan expects to increase oil and gas production to 3.34 million boe/day by 2021 through development of pre-salt and post-salt assets. Financial measures aim to fund investments without taking on additional net debt over the period.
3. 3
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events
within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based
on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking
statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future
economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial
results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan",
"project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to
identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these
statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results
or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC,
specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify
important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained
in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to
general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity
prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in
making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and
gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments,
receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
Disclaimer
—
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any
other reason. Figures for 2016 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this
cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking
statement contained in this presentation.
In addition, this presentation also contains certain financial measures that are not
recognized under Brazilian GAAP or IFRS. These measures do not have
standardized meanings and may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures
provided by other companies. We are providing these measures because we use
them as a measure of company performance; they should not be considered in
isolation or as a substitute for other financial measures that have been disclosed
in accordance with Brazilian GAAP or IFRS.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we
are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K
because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under
Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
General - February 2017
4. An integrated energy company
focused on oil and gas that
evolves with society, creating
high value, with a unique
technical capability
OUR VISION
4
6. Main Metrics of Strategic Plan (SP) and Business and Management Plan (BMP)
—
SAFETY FINANCIAL
Reduction of
36%In the Total Recordable Injury
Frequency Rate (TRIFR*)
Reduction in
LEVERAGE
Net Debt/EBITDA
* TRIFR = number of reportable injuries per million man-
hours
TO
2.5
by 2018
FROM
5.3
in 2015
TO
1.4
in 2018
FROM
2.2
in 2015
6
7. Highlights of the Plan
—
main metrics drive the strategy
Unified Plan
New management system
with targets up to supervisory level
Disciplined execution: systematic monitoring of
goals with mid-course corrections
New tools of
cost management
Meritocracy
2
(SP and BMP)
7
Engagement of the leadership
12. Partnerships and divestments
—
2015-2016 2017-2018
19.5
15.1
Amount in US$ Billion
12
Benefits of the partnerships
Risk sharing
Capex reduction
Increased capacity to invest along the value chain
Technological exchange
Strengthening of corporate governance
The partnerships and divestments program of
Petrobras leverages third parties investments
that might surpass US$ 40 Billion* in the next
10 years.
* Does not consider investment of suppliers to increase capacity
13. Investment spending by Petrobras (Capex)
—
13
2017 Capex
US$ 19.2 Billion
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
PNG 2015-2019
(revisão JAN 2016)
PNG 2017-2021
81%
82%
17%
17%
2%
1%
Comparison of total capex
(US$ Billion)
Exploration & Production (E&P) Other segmentsRefining & Natural Gas (RNG)
98.4
74.1
-25%
2015-2019 BMP
(Jan 2016 review)
2017-2021 BMP
14. 72initiatives
Main themes
—
21strategies
Implantation of
Zero Based
Budgeting
Strengthening
of internal
controls
Merit-based
performance
management
Strengthening
of the safety
culture
Streamlining
decision
making
Improvement of
risk
management
14
Reinforcing
prevention
against
corruption
16. Pre-Salt Post-Salt
34% 66%
Production Development
+ Exploration
Total E&P
US$ 60.6 billion
Upstream Capex Breakdown
—
Suporte Operacional Exploração
13% 11%
76%
16
Development of productionExploration Operational support
Concession
Transfer of Rights
Production Sharing (Libra)
17. 17
Greater well productivity
in concessions
Experience acquired
in well construction
Fewer wells to top capacity
3 times faster
Shorter well construction time
in concessions
2016
2010
26
20
2016
2010
6
8
kbpd/well
Until 2016
Until 2010
124
3
2016
2010
89
310
Days construction
per well
Efficiency gains: Santos Basin pre-salt case
—
+ 30% productivity - 25% wells
204 wells drilled
Lower capex
for the same
production
Number of wells built
(drilled and completed)
Producing wells
18. Lula field: faster well construction and connection
—
2010 2016
60%
reduction in well
construction and
connection times
6 units in
Angra dos Reis
Paraty
Itaguaí
Mangaratiba
Maricá
Saquarema
1 unit in
Angra dos Reis
18
19. Increased share of pre-salt in the
portfolio, with lower lifting costs
Gains from contractual renegotiations
Management of drilling rig idleness
Optimization of support vessel logistics
Reduction in labor costs
Reduction in operating costs
—
Lifting Cost (US$/boe)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2014 2015 2016 2017-2021*
14.6
12
11
9.6
* Average for the period
19
21. 21
0
1
2
3
4
2017 2021
Produção Óleo, LGN e Gás
Oil+ NGL Brazil
Oil + gas International
2.52
3.34
2.07
2.77
Natural gas Brazil
2.62
3.41
Production profile
—
Oil , NGL* and Gas production
(million boed)
* Natural Gas Liquids
22. LEGEND
CONCESSION
PSA
TRANSFER OF
RIGHTS
22
Start-up of new production units
—
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
TARTARUGA
VERDE E MESTIÇA
LULA NORTE
LULA SUL
TLD DE LIBRA
BÚZIOS 2
BÚZIOS 1
BÚZIOS 3
BÚZIOS 4 BÚZIOS 5
PILOTO LIBRA
REVIT. DE MARLIM
MÓD. 1
REVIT. DE MARLIM
MÓD. 2
LIBRA 2 NW
ITAPU
INTEGRADOPARQUE
DASBALEIAS
BERBIGÃO
LULA EXT. SUL
ATAPU 1
SÉPIA
24. 33%
25%
11%
24%
7%
RTC - Operational continuity RTC - Capital investments
G&E - Operational continuity G&E - Capital investments
Others (Petrobras Distribuidora, PBIO and R&D)
Total RNG
U$S 12.4 Billion
24
RTC: Refining, Transportation and Commercialization; G&E: Gas & Energy; PBIO: Petrobras Biocombustível; R&D: Research & Development.
Refining and Natural Gas Capex Breakdown
—
25. 2014 2015 2016 2017-2021
0.49
0.37
0.31
0.29
Integration of common and
interdependent activities among the
refineries
Optimization in the use of support
resources
Optimization of the consumption of
energy, catalyzers and chemicals
Optimization in maintenance
expenditures
Reduction of operating costs
—
Refining Cost
(US$ thousand/UEDC1)
251. Unit of equivalent destilation capacity
2. Average for the period
2
26. Main Projects
—
26SNOX: emission reduction unit;
UTGCA: Monteiro Lobato Gas Treatment Unit .
Seeking partnership
Seeking partnership
In final stages
100 kbpd 130 kbpd
SNOX unit
(under procurement)
1st Refining set
(Train I)
2nd Refining set
(Train II)
Gas Processing
Unit
Refinery
RNEST (Abreu e Lima)
COMPERJ
Expansion of UTGCA
under study
Route 1
Pre-salt gas flow
Gas pipeline and Gas Processing
Unit implementation
Route 3
26
27. Reduction in personnel expenses
—
employees already left of
which 2470 in the 2016 Program
9,670 employees expected to leave by mid-
2017 of which 400 in the 2014 Program
9,270
27
Decrease of own employees
(Voluntary Severance Incentive Programs 2014-2016)
Decrease of service contractors
114,000 were dismissed
since 2014*
* Service contractors of worksite and assembly, administrative, operations, schedule stoppages and abroad.
28. Due diligence counterparty
Integrity background check for
candidates to key positions
Adherence to the Code of Ethics and
the Guide to Ethical Conduct for 100%
of employees
Board of Directors and Executive
Board are selected exclusively by
technical criteria
Independent whistleblower channel
Correction Committee
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act
DOJ and SEC
UK Bribery Act
Brazilian Law 12.846/2013
Brazilian Decree-Law 8.420/2015
Brazilian Law 13.303/2016
CORRUPTION
PREVENTION
Program
Code of
ETHICS
28
Measures adopted to strengthen compliance
—
29. Review of the decision-making process
Elimination of approvals by single individuals
Creation of statutory technical committees
Statutory Audit Committee
New Advisories Committees for the Board of Directors
Alignment of guidelines for all companies in Petrobras System
Definition of succession process for managerial and executive positions
Reorganization of the structure of the company
29
Measures adopted to strengthen governance
—
31. Sources and Uses
—
158
19
2
Sources
74
73
32
Uses
Partnerships and divestments are
essential to enable the planned
capex
179 179
31
Investments
Amortizations
Financial Expenses Operating Cash Flow (after dividends)
Use of Cash
Partnerships and Divestments
Sources and Uses 2017-2021
(US$ billion)
No requirement for new net debt
during the 2017-2021 period
32. Main risks*
—
Material changes to market conditions
Divestments and partnerships below plan
Judicial disputes
Renegotiation of the Transfer of Rights terms
Impact of Local Content on costs and timing of the projects
Delays in the construction of platforms
Higher than expected capex
*These risks are not exhaustive
Risks and mitigating activities
managed by accountable
people
34. 34
Production continues in an upward trend
Production increases 2.5% in the period
Production (MMboe/d)
2.14 2.12 1.98 2.13 2.22
0.10 0.10
0.09
0.09 0.08
0.57 0.56
0.55
0.58 0.57
2.80 2.78
2.62
2.80 2.87
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Oil Brazil Oil International Natural Gas
+4%+8% Oil production
in Brazil
Oil and gas
production
Operated
production
Production Records
2.22
MMbbl/d
2.87
MMboe/d
3.17
MMboe/d
Seven of the eight Pre-Salt platforms in
Campos Basin have reached full capacity
+2.5%
+2.3%
35. 35
Lifting cost keeps downward trend
12.1
10.4
9M15 9M16
Lifting Cost*
(US$/boe)
Pre-Salt Lifting Cost
Below 8 Dollars per barrel
< 8.0
US$ boe
11.0
10.6 10.5
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
Lifting Cost 3Q15 vs 3Q16
We reduced by 20% the
maneageble operating costs in
the same period in which
production grew by 2,5%
* Lifting Cost in Brazil and abroad
Lifting Cost*
(US$/boe)
-14%
36. 36
Lower sales volume* due to reduced oil product demand in the domestic market
Demand impacted by the slowdown in the domestic economy
953 811 804
540
541 521
789
757 763
Diesel
Gasoline
Others
3Q16
2,088
2Q16
2,109
3Q15
2,282
-1.0%
kbbl/day
-6%
928 804
550
542
776
738
9M16
-8%
2,084
9M15
2,254
* Includes Downstream and BR Distribuidora sales
37. 37
Net balance of oil and oil products exports of 210 kbpd in the quarter
313
122 154
365 341
419
218
237 198
145 174
143
-55-63-73
265
219
52
352
531
3Q16
210
2Q16
515
3Q153Q162Q16
359
3Q15
562
510
2Q16
156
3Q15
-21
3Q16
Imports Exports Net Balance
Oil
Oil Products
kbbl/day
38. 38
Positive free cash flow for the sixth quarter in a row
Operating Cash Flow
Free Cash FlowInvestments2
Adjusted EBITDA1
3Q15
15.5
21.6
3Q162Q16
20.3
3Q15
18.0
11.2
3Q16
10.3
2Q16
3.8
3Q163Q15
10.8
2Q16
16.4
3Q16
26.7
2Q163Q15
21.921.8
1. Adjusted EBITDA is the sum of EBITDA, share of earning in equity-accounted investments and cumulative translation adjustments – CTA.
2. Cash basis
R$ Billion
19 28 33
+11%
63.0
9M16
56.8
9M15
24 30
+8%
9M15
66.0
9M16
61.1
36.3
52.8
9M15
-31%
9M16
+256%
9M169M15
8.3
29.6
Adjusted
EBITDA Margin
(%)
40. 40
Main projects and reasons for impairment in 3Q16
R$ 15.7 billion in 3Q16
R$ Billion
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16 mai/16 jul/16 set/16mar/15jan/15
+23%
4.8
3.9
Country Risk Premium
(% p.a.)
2.0
2.5
2.8
5.6 Some fields, which had already been impacted by impairment in 2015, had their cash flows more
pressuredby the exchange rate and the discount rate.
Uncertainty in the delivery of the hulls of FPSOs P-71, P-72 and P-73
Postponement of 2nd train of RNEST to 2023
Review of business plan’s assumptions, such as the reduction in the market for resins and
exchange rate
Oil and Gas Production fields in Brazil
Equipmentrelated to oil and gas production
activities
2nd train of Abreu and Lima refinery - RNEST
Suape PetrochemicalComplex
Increase in discount
rate for every segment
41. 41
In 3Q16, Petrobras did not provision
nor closed settlements related to
the class action and other individual
actions.
The ongoing discussions encompass
very complex issues and are subject
to substantial uncertainties.
Individual Actions – New York
In October 2016, Petrobras reached
an agreement to settle four
individual actions, with the plaintiffs
below:
• Dodge & Cox Int'l Stock Fund;
• Janus Overseas Fund;
• PIMCO Total Return Fund;
• Al Shams Investments.al.
In 3Q16, Petrobras provisioned for
individual actions under
negotiation, for which settlements
were not yet reached.
Settlement in 3Q16
Provision in 3Q16
Settlement in 3Q16
Provision in 3Q16
Settlement in 3Q16
Provision in 3Q16
Individual actions
(negotiated)
Individual actions
(under negotiation)
Class action
+ other individual
actions
Provision of R$ 1.2 billion in 3Q16
42. 42
We announced the new diesel and gasoline pricing policy
We will practice competitive prices using as a benchmark Import Parity Prices (IPP) plus a margin
Import price
(market alternative)
Taxes
Margin and risks
IPP
Considers the competitiveness of Petrobras’ products and the risks associated to
imports operations, such as exchange rate and oil and oil products price volatility,
delays and changes in quality specification.
Competitiveness will be a function of commercial and financial objectives
CIDE, PIS and COFINS, ICMS
Refinery Gate Price
43. 43
Partnerships and Divestments reached 90% of the target of the 2015-16 Plan
Transactions signed amount to US$ 13.6 Bi
Partnerships and divestments
with signed contracts
Bacia Austral assets in Argentina, with
Compañia General de Combustibles
49% Gaspetro with Mitsui
66.7% PESA with Pampa Energia
Petrobras Chile Distribuición with
Southern Cross Group
66% BM-S-8 (Carcará) with Statoil
90% of Nova Transportadora do
Sudeste (NTS) with Brookfield
Nansei refinery with Taiyo
Liquigás with Ultrapar
PetroquímicaSuape/Citepe with Alpek
Guarani with Tereos Participations
Master Agreement with Total
Partnerships and divestments
In final stages of negotiation
already announced
Baúna and Tartaruga Verde fields
with Karoon
Strategic Partnerships
already announced
MoU with Statoil – focus on
revitalization of Post-Salt fields
MoU with GALP – focus on
partnerships in regions worldwide in
which the companies have a shared
interest, besides training and
deepwater reservoir research
MoU with TOTAL – focus in the E&P,
Gas, Energy and Refining segments in
Brazil and abroad
Ongoing Divestments
already announced
Partnership in Petrobras Distribuidora
(BR)
Onshore shallow waters fields
LNG Terminals
Thermal power plants
44. 44
We reduced by 10% the Manageable Operating Costs in 2016
Sales, general and administrative expenses decreased, despite the wage readjustment due to the 2016 Collective Bargaining Agreement
-6%
3Q16
19.9
2Q16
21.1
3Q15
25.2
-21%
-10%
9M16
62.7
9M15
69.7
-7%
3Q16
71,152
2Q16
76,613
3Q15
79,113
-10%
Petrobras Workforce
Evolution
Manageable Operating
Costs
R$ Billion
-4%
+9%
9M16
19.3
9M15
17.7
-2%
3Q16
6.4
2Q16
6.5
3Q15
6.6
Sales, General and
Administrative Expenses
R$ Billion
45. 45
Lower debt in line with 2017-2021 BMP targets
398,2397,8
450,0
493,0506,6
325,6332,4
369,5
392,1402,3
122,7123,9126,4126,3127,5
100,3103,6103,8100,4101,3
Net Debt
(US$ billion)
Total Debt
(US$ billion)
Net Debt
(R$ billion)
Total Debt
(R$ billion)
2Q161Q164Q153Q15 3Q16
3Q15 2Q16 3Q16
Cost of Debt(% a.a.) 6.1 6.3 6.3
Maturity (years) 7.49 7.30 7.33
Leverage (%) 58 55 55
46. 46
DEBT PROFILE – AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
By Category By Currency
Note: Brazilian State Banks: BNDES, Banco do Brasil and Caixa Econômica Federal
44%
24%
6%
22%
4%
Brazilian State Banks
Other Brazilian Banks
Bond Markets
Foreign Financial Institutions
Foreign Development Banks and ECA
74%
19%
1%6%
EUR
USD
BRL
Others
47. Liability Management
3 successful liability management between May 2016 and January 2017
—
US$ Bilhões
47
US$ 14 billion in issuances and US$ 15 billion in tender helped to reduce the cost of debt and to extend maturity
We were awarded “Corporate Liability Management of the Year” by LatinFinance magazine.
Estimated Cost of Debt per Year
Maturity February 9th 1 month ago 1 year ago Max.
5 years 5.5 % 6.1% 13.6% 15.9%
10 years 6.9% 7.4% 12.9% 14.4%
30 years 8.1% 8.2% 12.4% 13.2%
6.8
Issuance
6.3
TenderBookbuilding
19.0
May 2016
3.0
Issuance
3.0
TenderBookbuilding
7.0
July 2016
4.0
Issuance
5.9
TenderBookbuilding
19.0
January 2017
US$ Billion
Source: Bloomberg
48. Debt maturity between 2017 and 2020
Includes January 2017 tender offer
—
13
23
17
12
14
18
11
8
201920182017 2020
As of Feb/2015
As of Feb/2017
US$ Billion
48
49. 49
2016 Cash Flow reflects divestments and debt management
US$ Billion
Judicial
Guarantees
Borrowings
-9.3 1.8
Roll-overs
11.9
Divestments
6.5
Investment
-14.5
Dividends,
Interest
and
Amortizations
-22.6
-3.6
Operating
Cash Flow
26.5
2016
Initial Cash
Position
25.8
22.5
2016
Final Balance
Financial
Expenses and
Amortizations
Tender Offer
50. 50
And evolving with a focus on the main metrics of the 2017-21 BMP
Net Debt / EBITDA**
2Q162015
4.1
5.3
4.5
3Q16
-9%
2Q16
1.6
2.2
3Q16
-12%
1.8
2015
Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate*
SAFETY
* TRIFR = Number of reportable injuries per million man-hours
FINANCIAL
-24%
-27%
** LTM Adjusted EBITDA