The document summarizes key points about Brazil's pre-salt oil development:
1) Pre-salt oil fields have had a short lag between discovery and first oil production, and are projected to ramp up production faster than other frontier developments like the Gulf of Mexico or North Sea.
2) Santos Basin pre-salt development from 2006-2010 included infrastructure build-out and multiple discoveries.
3) Further development from 2011-2016+ includes additional pipelines, production units, rigs, and discoveries to enable faster ramp-up to full capacity.
4) While capital costs are similar to deepwater Campos Basin projects, pre-salt may have higher drilling/completion costs partially offset by larger reserves
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Pre-Salt Oil - Developing The Frontier | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - JP Morgan
1. Pre-Salt Oil: Developing The Frontier
José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
CEO
November, 16th 2011
JP Morgan
1
2. DISCLAIMER
This presentation may contain forward-looking Cautionary statement for U.S. investors:
statements. Such statements reflect only the
expectations of the Company's management The United States Securities and Exchange
regarding the future conditions of the economy, Commission permits oil and gas companies,
the industry, the performance and financial in their filings with the SEC, to disclose
results of the Company, among other factors. proved reserves that a company has
Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", demonstrated by actual production or
"forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", conclusive formation tests to be economically
"should", along with similar expressions, are and legally viable under existing economic
used to identify such statements. These and operating conditions. We use certain
predictions evidently involve risks and terms in this presentation, such as
uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the discoveries, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly
Company. Consequently, these statements do prohibit us from including in filings with the
not represent assurance of future results of the SEC.
Company. Therefore, the Company's future
results of operations may differ from current
expectations, and readers must not base their
expectations solely on the information presented
herein. The Company is not obliged to update
the presentation and forward-looking statements
in light of new information or future
developments. Amounts informed for the year
2011 and upcoming years are either estimates
or targets.
2
3. PRE-SALT’S SHORT LAG BETWEEN DISCOVERY AND FIRST-OIL, AND FAST PROJECTED
RAMP-UP
Oil Production
Years after
Discovery
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63
Pre-Salt GoM (USA) North Sea Campos Basin
Discovery: SS032 (1947) Discovery: Q/13ª (1963) Discovery: Garoupa (1974) Discovery: Parati (2006)
First oil: SS032 (1947) First Oil: Dan (1972) First oil: Enchova (1977) First oil: Tupi (2009)
3
4. SANTOS PRE-SALT MASTER PLAN’S HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2006 TO 2010 ...
Infraestructure
Definitive Systems
FPSOs/
Lula Pilot (AR)
FPSOs/EWTs
Tupi (CSV) Guará (DP)
New Rigs
2 2 1 3 6
Júpiter
Discoveries
Pre-Salt/Parati Carioca Iracema
Iara
Bem-Te-Vi (cernambi) Franco
Tupi (Lula) Caramba
Guará
...
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
4
5. ... AND FROM 2011 ONWARDS
Route 2 Route 3
Infrastructure
Pipeline
Lula-Mexilhão
Replic. Replic.
Definitive Systems
Guará Guará 1 3, 4, 5, 6,
Pilot Norte 7, 8
FPSOs/
Replic.
Lula NE Cernambi 2
Tranfer of
Pilot Sul Tranfer of Rights
Rights 2, 3 and 4
1
FPSOs/EWTs
3 4 EWTs 3 EWTs 5 EWTs 5 EWTs
New Rigs
6 8 8 already contracted + 21 to be contracted
... 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016+
5
6. MORE DRILLING RIGS WILL ENABLE A FASTER RAMP-UP OF THE NEW PLATFORMS
20 To reach 50% of capacity
To reach 75% of capacity
16
Forecast
12
Months
8
4
0
P-43 P-48 P-50 P-52 P-54 P-53 P-51 FPSO P-57
CAPIXABA
2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010
Water Depth 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11
1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21 +2 +1 +1
Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15 +10 +13 +1
6
7. CAPITAL COSTS: PRE-SALT vs. CAMPOS
Similar equipment and processes: main difference is drilling and completion
PRE-SALT
CAPEX DISTRIBUTION
27% 20%
53%
Gathering Completion + Drilling Units
DEEPWATER PROJECTS IN CAMPOS BASIN*
CAPEX DISTRIBUTION
33,3% 33,3%
Additional drilling and completion cost in
the pre-salt compared with an generic
deepwater project in Campos basin can be
partially or fully offset by higher quality and
quantity of oil expected in the pre-salt area.
33,3%
Gathering Completion + Drilling Units
* Generic example, considering that these rates can change among the different existing projects in Campos Basin 7
8. 8
PRE-SALT’S ECONOMICS: PRODUCTIVITY GAINS ...
Average drilling time of the wells completed Drilling needs
during the year
- 15%
100%
Number of wells (phase 1a)
85%
75%
66%
2006/2007 2008 2009 2010 PN 2010-2014 PN 2010-2015
8
10. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
Start-up of Plangas and Pre-salt projects will substantially increase capacity
Manaus
Coari
Jurua Urucu
UTGCA Mexilhão
Urugua
UGN
RPBC
PMLZ-1 Lula
Million m3
100 2011-15 95
Non-Associated Natural Gas
80 Mexilhão – 15MM m3/day
75
Uruguá-Tambaú – 10 MM m3/day 2015-20
60 55
Associated Natural Gas
42 Juruá – 2 MM m3/day
from the Pre-salt
40 Associated Natural Gas Natural gas production from
20 Increasing production in the Pre-salt in Santos Basin to
Campos and Santos Basins surpass 20 MM m3/day
0
2010 2011 2015 2020
10
12. E&P INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL
Pre-salt now more than half of development spending over the next five years
Pre-Salt Post-Salt
US$ 53.4 Billion US$ 64.3 Billion
13% 12% Tranfer
2% of 21% 22%
Rights
21%
54%
57%
Development Infrastructure and support Exploration
12
13. PETROBRAS’ TOTAL RESERVES AND POTENTIAL RECOVERABLE VOLUMES
Continuous growth from deeper discoveries Potential
increase
Million boe
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
Onshore 0-300 m 300-1500 m > 1500 m Pre-salt's Recoverable Volume Transfer of Rights
13
14. PRODUCTION TARGETS
With broad access to new reserves, Petrobras can more than double its production in
the next decade
6,418
142
246
1.120
3,993
+ 35 Systems
125
180
2,772 618
2,516 2,575
2,386 96
96 93
99 141 +10 Post-Salt Projects
132 144 435 4,910
111 317 334 +8 Pre-Salt Projects
321
+1 Transfer of Rights
3,070
845
’000 boe/day
Transfer of Rights
1.855 1.971 2.004 2.100 Added Capacity
Oil: 2,300,000 bpd 13
Pre-Salt 1,148
543
2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International
14
15. MAIN E&P PROJECTS Natural Gas
Large projects sustain production increases Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights
Post-Salt
EWTs
Lula Pilot
FPSO BW Cidade
Angra dos Reis
100.000 bpd
Juruá GNA
Lula NE
Franco 1
Transfer of
FPSO Cidade de Rights
Cachalote and Mexilhão Paraty FPSO
Baleia Franca Jaqueta Guará Pilot 2 120.000 bpd 150.000 bpd
FPSO Capixaba HG FPSO Cidade de
100.000 bpd São Paulo Parque das Guará (North) FPSO P-67
Tambaú 120.000 bpd Baleias FPSO Replicant 2
FPSO Cidade de FPSO P-58
Uruguá 150.000 bpd 150.000 bpd
FPSO Cidade de Santos 180.000 bpd BMS-9 our11
Santos NG Baleia Azul
FPSO Cidade de Cernambi South
Th bpd 35.000 bpd
Anchieta
Papa-Terra FPSO 3.070
Marlim Sul TLWP P-61 & 150.000 bpd
100.000 bpd
module 3 FPSO P-63
3000 Jubarte (FPSO Espadarte 150.000 bpd
SS P-56
FPSO P-57 reallocation)
100.000 bpd
180.000 bpd
FPSO P-66
2500 Replicant 1
2.100 150.000 bpd
2.004 Baleia Azul
Roncador FPSO BMS-9 or 11
2000 Roncador
module 3 Módule 4 60.000 bpd
EWTs Lula NE e SS P-55 Maromba
FPSO P-62
Tiro Pilot Cernambi 180.000 bpd FPSO
1500 180.000 bpd
SS-11 FPSO BW Cidade 100.000 bpd
Atlantic Zephir São Vicente Siri
Tiro/Sidon
30.000 bpd 30.000 bpd Aruanã Jaqueta e FPSO ESP/Marimbá
1000 FPSO Cidade de
FPSO 50.000 bpd FPSO
Itajaí
100.000 bpd 40.000 bpd
80.000 bpd
EWT Guará EWT Carioca
500 FPSO Dynamic
Producer
30.000 bpd
FPSO Dynamic
Producer
30.000 bpd
4 EWTs
Pre-salt
3 EWTs
Pre-salt
5 EWTs
Pre-salt
5 EWTs
Pre-salt
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
15
16. VARREDURA PROJECT
Technological development and exploratory optimization in existing concessions
Discoveries in Pre-salt
Descobertas do Pr é-sal Recoverable volumes
Campos Basin 2009/10
na Bacia de Campos
2009/10 (VARREDURA)
(Varredura)
discovered:
Post-salt: 1,105 MM boe
(Marimbá, Marlim Sul and Pampo)
Pre-salt: 1,130 MM boe*
(Barracuda, Caratinga, Marlim,
Marlim Leste, Albacora and Albacora
Leste)
*No volumes have been announced for the Marlim
Leste and Albacora Leste discoveries
67 exploratory wells will be drilled
Wells productivity close to
between 2011 and 2015 in production
15,000 bpd
areas in Campos basin
16
17. CUTTING-EDGE TECHNOLOGIES
OIL/WATER SUBSEA RAW WATER
SEPARATION INJECTION
- Resolves limitations from growing - Increases production in existing
water production systems
- Separates water and oil under the - 3 subsea systems for pumping raw
sea, reinjecting water and relieving water (with little treatment) to
the size of the surface equipment pressurize the reservoir, increasing
on the platform recovery factor without increasing
- Field: Marlim (Nov/2011) surface systems. Pioneer in the
world in such water depth
- Field: Albacora (Dec/2011)
17
18. NEW VESSELS AND EQUIPMENTS
Resources required for production growth
Delivery Plan (to be contracted)
Current Situation Accumulated Value
Critical Resources (Dec/10)
By 2013 By 2015 By 2020
Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 15 39 37 (1) 65 (2)
Supply and Special Vessel 287 423 479 568
Production Platforms (SS and FPSO) 44 54 61 94
Others (Jacket and TLWP) 78 80 81 83
Supply Vessel Drilling Rig FPSO
DRILLING RIGS UNDER CONTRACT
Water Depth 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11
1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21 +2 +1 +1
Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15 +10 +13 +1
(1) The contracts for two rigs reallocated from international operations expire in 2015
(2) Long-term demand will be adjusted according to new assessments 18